Download Regional climate models

Regional climate models.
Arnoldo Bezanilla
Center for atmosfheric Physics
INSMET, Cuba
Institute of Meteorology, Cuba
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
1
What is a Regional Climate Model ?
A Regional Climate Model (RCM) is a high resolution climate
model that covers a limited area of the globe, typically
5,000 km x 5,000 km. RCMs are based on physical laws
represented by mathematical equations that are solved using
a three-dimensional grid. The typical horizontal resolution of
an RCM is 50 km
RCMs are comprehensive physical models,
usually including the atmosphere and land
surface components of the climate
system, and containing representations
of the important processes within the
climate system (e.g., cloud, radiation,
rainfall, soil hydrology)
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
Regional Climate Modeling (I)
The main goal of regional climate models (RCMs) is to
reproduce the main climatic features in complex terrain,
where mesoscale forcing becomes important (Giorgi and
Mearns, 1991) and coarse-resolution global climate
models (GCMs) are not sufficient for assessing local
climate change (Aldrian et al. 2004).
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
3
Regional Climate Modeling (II)
An example of a region where present-generation GCMs are
especially lacking in their ability to represent complex terrain and
land-sea contrasts is the Caribbean zone. In this region, tropical
and extra-tropical systems interact (Alfonso and Naranjo, 1996)
and frequently produce complex meteorological conditions. The
sea-breeze circulation in islands and peninsulas favors the
development of convective systems (Riehl, 1979).
In such a
complex meteorological situation, a high-resolution model is
necessary for meaningful regional climate prediction
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
4
PRECIS
(Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies)
A Regional Modelling System derived
from Hadley Centre GCM

Providing REgional Climates for
Impact Studies

PC-based regional climate model

It can be set up and run over any area

PRECIS is freely available

It has two resolutions ~25 km and
~50 km

PRECIS is a tool for dynamical
downscaling

1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
5
Work Scheme
FUTURE
CLIMATE
ACTUAL
CLIMATE
PERTURB
A2
REANALYSIS
B2
CLIMATE
CONTROL
CHANGE
PRECIS is running
and driving using
“observe data”
PRECIS is running
and forcing with
outputs from a GCM
1961-1990
PRECIS is running and forcing with
outputs from a GCM using an A2 or B2
scenarios
CHANGE=PERTURB-CONTROL
Climate Change Impacts on the
Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica,
June 15,17-2007
PRECIS (outputs)
Figure 2: Projected inter­annual variations of land area­averaged
temperature changes for the 50 km resolution domain from 2050 to 2099. 1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
PRECIS (outputs)
Mean changes at the 1.5m altitude of the annual temperature change for 20712099 period as simulated by PRECIS­ECHAM4 and PRECIS HadCM3 for SRESA2 and SRESB2.
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
PRECIS (outputs)
Projected variations of precipitation changes for the 50 km resolution
domain from 2050 to 2099. 1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
PRECIS (outputs)
Annual mean changes in precipitation (%) for 2071­2099 as simulated by PRECIS­
ECHAM4 and PRECIS­HadCM3 for SRESA2 and SRESB2 emission scenarios.
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
PRECIS (Outputs)
Examples for small island countries
Grid results over Haiti
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
Grid results over Jamaica
11
PRECIS (What have we Done)
As part of a very prominent collaborative
initiative between 5C, INSMET and UWI
Jamaica and Barbados
ERA-INTERIM
HadR3P(bbbal)
50
1989-2002
CUBA_new_pole_1_
final
ERA-INTERIM
HadRQ0(bbbam)
50
1989-2002
CUBA_new_pole_1_
final
ERA-INTERIM
HadR3P(bbbao)
25
1989-2002
Caribbean_HighRes
_25km-last
ERA-INTERIM
HadR3P(bbbap)
50
1989-2002
Caribbean_HighRes
_50km-last
ERA-INTERIM
HadR3P(bbbaq)
25
1989-2002
WesternCaribbean25Km
ERA-INTERIM
HadR3P(bbbar)
25
1989-2002
EasternCaribbean25Km
ERA-INTERIM
HadR3P(bbbas) hourly
50
1990-1993
CUBA_new_pole_1_
final
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
12
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
13
Regional Climate modeling
(Future plans )



PRECIS 2040-2100 Period
same experiments CORDEX DOMAIN
ReGCM4 - 1 RCP
WRF Sensitivity experiments
2 RCP's
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
RegCM (Regional Climate Model)
► Group
of Physics for Water and Climate (PWC Group)
International Centre of Theoretic Physics (ICTP) Trieste, Italy
► RegCM3 was developed from the NCAR mesoscale model MM4, but
in the present its dynamical component is more similar to that of
the hydrostatic version of MM5. Essentially, it is a compressible,
grid point model with hydrostatic balance and sigma vertical
coordinates (Now we used RegCM4.#.#)
Historical North Atlantic and East-Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks,
1851-2005
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
15
CORDEX Domains
WRF HiRes Domains
Thanks !!!!
PRECIS Online Access
http://precis.insmet.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm
Email: [email protected]
Contacts PRECIS Group in Cuba
Abel Centella [email protected]
Arnoldo Bezanilla [email protected]
Israel Borrajero [email protected]
1st CARIWIG Workshop Kingston, Jamaica, Feb 6,7 2013
18