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Forest Ecology and Management 276 (2012) 24–32 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Forest Ecology and Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/foreco Effects of single-tree selection harvesting on Rose-breasted Grosbeak (Pheucticus leudovicianus) demography in a northern hardwood forest Sonya Richmond a,⇑, Erica Nol b, Dawn Burke c, Jay R. Malcolm a a Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks St., Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3B3 Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program and Biology Department, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada K9J 7B8 c Southern Science and Information Unit, Ministry of Natural Resources, 659 Exeter Rd., London, Ontario, Canada N6E 1L3 b a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 17 January 2012 Received in revised form 14 March 2012 Accepted 16 March 2012 Available online 19 April 2012 Keywords: Single-tree selection silviculture Hardwood forest Rose-breasted Grosbeak Reproductive success Songbird Population decline a b s t r a c t Single-tree selection harvesting is frequently used in the tolerant hardwood forests of North America, but little is known about how it affects the reproductive success of migratory songbirds. Many songbirds that breed in tolerant hardwoods, including the Rose-breasted Grosbeak (Pheucticus leudovicianus) are experiencing population declines across their breeding ranges. We studied habitat characteristics and reproductive success of Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in stands harvested 0–5, 16–20, and 21–25 years previously and in reference stands (un-harvested for >50 years) in Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario, Canada (n = 3 per age class). Recently harvested stands had higher cover from regenerative growth and lower sapling, understory, and canopy cover than other treatments, whereas reference stands had higher basal area and sapling cover. Pairing success was significantly lower in the reference stands than in all other post-harvest treatments, and the number of fledglings per successful nest was significantly lower in the reference stands than in the 0–5 years post-harvest stands. Density and population growth rate were significantly positively correlated, suggesting that density may be an adequate indicator of habitat quality for Rosebreasted Grosbeaks in forested landscapes. Older males were present at higher densities, initiated their nests earlier, and produced significantly more fledglings per nest than younger males in all treatments. Habitat characteristics did not differ significantly between nests with second-year and after-second-year males, suggesting greater reproductive output of older males was likely due to experience rather than monopolization of better quality territories. We concluded that single-tree selection harvesting was beneficial to Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in our predominantly forested study area. Population growth rates were below replacement levels in the 21–25 years post-harvest and reference treatments, but populations were stable in the younger regenerating stands. Thus, in a continuously forested landscape this species’ declines are probably not attributable to single-tree selection harvesting. Ó 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction In the tolerant hardwood forests of North America (i.e., forests dominated by deciduous, shade-tolerant trees; Hunter, 1990) uneven-aged harvesting systems such as selection cutting are often used because they are thought to mimic small-scale disturbances typical of this forest region (Arbogast, 1957, Franklin, 1989, OMNR, 2000), and therefore to have minimal impacts on wildlife. However, many migratory songbirds that breed in the hardwood forests of northeastern North America are currently experiencing broad-scale population declines (DeGraaf and Yamasaki, 2003; Stutchbury, 2007; Vanderwel et al., 2007). Many studies have documented a decline in the abundance of mature-forest species following selection ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 905 239 5971. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S. Richmond), [email protected] (E. Nol), [email protected] (D. Burke), [email protected] (J.R. Malcolm). 0378-1127/$ - see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.03.015 harvesting (i.e., Doyon et al., 2005; Holmes and Pitt, 2007; Haché and Villard, 2010), whereas early- and mid-successional species generally become more abundant following this type of harvesting (i.e., Simon et al., 2000; Jobes et al., 2004; Holmes and Pitt, 2007). Demographic responses to selection harvesting are much less frequently studied, and results are often mixed, with nest survival of some species apparently unaffected following harvesting (Bourque and Villard, 2001; Gram et al., 2003; Moore et al., 2010; LeBlanc et al., 2011), but other species experiencing reduced reproductive success despite increased abundance (Robertson and Hutto, 2007; Poulin et al., 2010). Determining whether silvicultural techniques such as selection harvesting are contributing to avian population declines is important, because much of the hardwood forest in eastern North America, which represents valuable habitat for many songbird species, is currently subject to forest management. Assessments of whether selection harvesting alters habitat quality for declining songbirds typically rely on the assumptions S. Richmond et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 276 (2012) 24–32 of the ideal free distribution model, which predicts that better quality habitats (i.e., areas where conditions support higher reproductive output) will be inhabited by more individuals than poorer quality ones (Fretwell and Lucas, 1970). However, additional factors can influence where individuals settle in forested landscapes, including recent (Schmiegelow et al., 1997) or unpredictable (Van Horne, 1983) disturbances such as logging. In some instances, harvested habitats may contain features typically present in high quality habitats, but support lower rates of survival or reproduction than unmanaged areas (Weldon and Haddad, 2005). For example, Olive-sided flycatchers (Contopus cooperi) settle in higher densities in selection-harvested forests, but experience much lower nest survival in these areas than in natural burns (Robertson and Hutto, 2007). As a result, despite recent evidence that density may be an adequate indicator of avian productivity in some hardwood regions (Underwood and Roth, 2002; Bock and Jones, 2004; Perot and Villard, 2009), additional measures of demography should be included in assessments of habitat quality in managed areas to determine whether harvesting is contributing to avian declines (Sallabanks et al., 2000). Age-related differences in acquisition and defense of high quality territories (Catterall et al., 1989; Donovan and Stanley, 1995, Pärt, 2001) may also cause a decoupling of the predicted positive relationship between density and productivity if older, more experienced birds out-compete younger ones and monopolize resources (Donazar and Feijoo, 2002). In some species, nest initiation date, clutch size (Reynolds, 1997), nest survival (Forschler and Kalko, 2006), and number of successful fledglings (Préault et al., 2005; Brown and Roth, 2009) are influenced by the age of the breeding adults, with after-second-year birds often performing better than second-year birds. If older birds are more successful at obtaining and defending territories in preferred habitats, then the ratio of older to younger birds could be used to assess which habitats are perceived as most desirable by breeding individuals. Clarifying how selection harvesting influences population age structure, and how age structure in turn influences productivity, is useful for better understanding the effects of anthropogenic activities such as forest management on declining migratory songbirds. The Rose-breasted Grosbeak (Pheucticus leudovicianus) is a Neotropical migrant that breeds in mixed and deciduous forests across North America (Wyatt and Francis, 2002; Smith et al., 2006) and has been experiencing annual population declines of 0.65% across North America since 1966 (Sauer et al., 2008). This species is tolerant of anthropogenic disturbances (Wyatt and Francis, 2002), and attains relatively high densities in forests with high tree densities, extensive sapling and shrub cover, and well-developed understory layers (Webb et al., 1977; Possardt and Dodge, 1978). Although such observations suggest that this species will use forests regenerating after selection harvesting, existing research on the effects of partial harvesting has provided mixed results. Depending on the study, density responses to partial harvesting have been recorded as positive (Holmes et al., 2004; Jobes et al., 2004; Doyon et al., 2005; Guénette and Villard, 2005), neutral (Duguay et al., 2001; Holmes and Pitt, 2007), or negative (Smith et al., 2006; Vanderwel et al., 2007; Thompson et al., 2009). Demographic studies of Rose-breasted Grosbeaks, which could help explain these mixed responses, have so far only been undertaken in the fragmented Carolinian forest, where both density and the proportion of older territorial males were lower in harvested fragments than in unharvested ones (Smith et al., 2006). A better understanding of how silviculture influences Rose-breasted Grosbeak demography in predominantly forested landscapes is important because a large portion of this declining species’ range (Wyatt and Francis, 2002) falls within managed forest landscapes. Here, we compare Rose-breasted Grosbeak demography (density, population age structure, pairing success, nest initiation 25 dates, and population growth rates) and habitat characteristics among stands harvested recently (0–5, 16–20, 21–25 years ago) and stands un-harvested for >50 years that represent reference conditions. In addition, we compare demographic and habitat measures at nests attended by second-year and after-second-year males to determine whether single-tree selection harvesting alters population age structure or differentially affects pairing success, nest survival, and population growth rates for individuals in these two age classes. Finally, we examine the extent to which structural habitat features in the stands correlate with demographic responses. Based on the hypothesis that high densities reflect highly productive populations, we predicted that Rose-breasted Grosbeak density and population growth rates would be highest in those stands in which the sapling and understory vegetation layers were most developed, because these conditions represent preferred nesting habitat (Smith et al., 2007). We also expected that after-second-year males would outcompete younger males for territories in these stands, and that the older males would have higher reproductive success. 2. Material and methods 2.1. Study area Sampling of habitat characteristics and Rose-breasted Grosbeaks was carried out in twelve tolerant hardwood stands in Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario, Canada (45°340 N, 78°040 W) in 2006–2008 (Fig. 1). Studied stands were located in the central and southern part of the park (mean nearest neighbor distance of stands = 9.3 km, range = 1.0–34.2 km), which has been harvested using the single-tree selection system since the early 1970’s (OMNR, 1998). This method of forest management removes approximately one-third of the over-story basal area every 15– 25 years, resulting in uneven-aged stands with a mix of canopy gaps, regenerative growth, and mature trees (Tubbs, 1977; Hunter, 1990; Seymour et al., 2002). Stands used in this study were dominated by sugar maple (Acer saccharum), American beech (Fagus grandifolia), eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis). Three stands (mean stand size = 34 ha) were studied in each of three stages in the cutting cycle (0–5, 16–20, 21–25) and at >50 years postharvest. Removal or trees in the latter set of stands, which were selectively harvested for certain tree species >50 years previously, was relatively low, and these stands were used to represent reference conditions. We examined the 0–5 years post-harvest treatment to evaluate structural and demographic conditions immediately after harvesting. Recommended harvest rotations for tolerant hardwood forests range from 15 to 25 years (Tubbs, 1977; Hunter, 1990; Seymour et al., 2002). The 16–20 years post-harvest treatment was chosen to provide insight into conditions at the earliest stage when a second harvest could be carried out, and the 21–25 years post-harvest treatment was chosen to investigate whether forest structure and songbird demography had returned to reference conditions by the end of the recommended harvest rotation. 2.2. Habitat measurements We measured habitat characteristics in 5 m radius, randomlyplaced circular plots and at 5 m radius plots centered on nest locations. In each year, the number of random plots surveyed in each stand was equal to the number of nests monitored in that stand, providing an overall average of 13 (range = 10–17) randomly located plots and an equal number of nest plots per stand. We measured vegetation layers using a modified version of the James and Shugart (1970) method. At each plot, percent cover by (1) forbs/ 26 S. Richmond et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 276 (2012) 24–32 Fig. 1. Map of sites used to study the effects of single-tree selection on the demography of Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in Ontario, Canada. The gray polygon indicates Algonquin Provincial Park and the numbers associated with each site indicate number of years post-harvest. Solid triangles = 0–5 years post-harvest stands, solid squares = 16–20 years post-harvest stands, solid hexagons = 21–25 years post-harvest stands, and unfilled circles = reference stands. grasses/ferns, (2) regenerative growth (woody growth 0.5–1.3 m tall), (3) saplings (>1.3 m tall, <2.5 cm dbh), (4) understory (P2.5 cm dbh, <10.0 cm dbh), (5) sub-canopy (>10–20 m tall), and (6) canopy (>20 m tall) were visually estimated, and basal area (m2/ha) was measured using a 2-factor cruising prism. 2.3. Nest monitoring We visited each stand every 3–4 days in May–July from 2006 to 2008 to search for and monitor nests. Mean values for nest initiation date, clutch size, number of fledglings per successful nest, and number of fledglings per nest were calculated for each stand. We checked nests to confirm clutch size and the number of nestlings in each, but for some canopy nests (23% of nests) the number of eggs could not be visually confirmed, so we estimated clutch size using the mean number of eggs per nest across all nests in our study. For nests that already contained eggs or young when we located them (12% of nests), published lengths for nest building (4 days), incubation (12 days), and nestling development (10 days) were used to calculate nest initiation dates (Scott, 1998). We did not include nests that were initiated on or after June 3rd in our analysis of nest initiation dates (range = May 18th–June 15th) due to uncertainty as to whether they were first attempts or not. We calculated nest survival for each stand using the Mayfield method (Mayfield, 1975). 2.4. Density and pairing success In 2007 and 2008, we estimated the density of territorial male Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in each stand using a modified version of the spot mapping technique (Bibby et al., 2000). All locations of male Rose-breasted Grosbeaks seen or heard during eight visits between May 10th and June 2nd were mapped. Males that were observed in the same location on three or more occasions were considered territorial. In territories where no nest was located, a male was assumed to be paired if a female was observed in that territory on at least one occasion, and unpaired if no female was observed after a total of 90 min of observation during one or more observation periods (Bibby et al., 2000). Because after-second-year (ASY) males can be visually distinguished from second-year (SY) males using binoculars (Pyle, 1997; Smith et al., 2006), we also calculated the proportion of ASY: SY males in each stand by recording the age category of each singing male that was mapped over the course of the season. A small proportion of territorial males (3–5%) could not be accurately aged, but the proportion was consistent among treatments. Finally, we calculated density (total No. of territorial males/ha) and pairing success (No. paired males/total No. males) for each stand for all the males together, and for each age class. 2.5. Productivity We calculated two different measures of productivity: (1) the mean number of Rose-breasted Grosbeak fledglings produced per active nest in each treatment and (2) population growth rates relative to replacement levels. For a population to be self-sustaining, the annual female mortality rate must not exceed the average number of female offspring produced per female that survive to breed; i.e., k must be P1 (Ricklefs, 1973; Pulliam, 1988; Donovan et al., 1995). We calculated k for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in each treatment using a two-age-class matrix population model in the program PopTools version 3.2.3 (Hood, 2010). Confidence intervals for population ks were calculated using the bootstrapping technique with 100 iterations. The model incorporates estimates of annual adult and juvenile survival, which we did not directly measure. Following Moore et al. (2010), we used estimates of annual adult survivorship ranging from 0.40 to 0.61 obtained from literature on other Neotropical migratory songbirds. Annual juvenile survivorship for each treatment was calculated as the product of site-specific estimates of fledgling survival up until parental independence (Richmond, 2011) and annual adult survival, based on the assumption that once juveniles reach independence their S. Richmond et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 276 (2012) 24–32 annual survival rate is similar to that of adults (Moore et al., 2010). To calculate annual female fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year) we assumed that Rose-breasted Grosbeak young occur in a 1:1 sex ratio, that females who initially failed to successfully nest would re-nest only once, and that the probability of nest success for re-nesters would be the same as that experienced during first nest attempts (Smith et al., 2006; Moore et al., 2010). Following Moore et al. (2010), we used these values to calculate population growth rates for each treatment under best case (high adult and juvenile survival) and worst case (low adult and juvenile survival) scenarios. 2.6. Analyses We used the Spearman Rank correlation coefficient to test for significant (P < 0.05) correlations among habitat measures, as the vegetation data rarely met assumptions of normality. When significant correlations were indicated among the habitat measures themselves, we omitted the measure judged to be of lesser ecological importance to Rose-breasted Grosbeak demography from further analysis (Burnham and Anderson, 2002; Driscoll et al., 2005). Specifically, seedling cover was omitted due to significant (P < 0.05) correlations with regenerative growth (+), saplings (), canopy cover (), and basal area (). Percent cover in the canopy and sub-canopy layers were significantly positively correlated, so these variables were combined into one measure (hereafter referred to as canopy cover). Sapling cover was positively correlated with understory cover (r = 0.56), but we retained both because they were judged to be of importance to Rose-breasted Grosbeak ecology. For each habitat measure we calculated a mean value for each stand based on measures from randomly located plots. We first used redundancy analysis (RDA; ter Braak and Smilauer, 1998) to test for significant differences among harvest treatments. If this multivariate test indicated significant differences, response variables were then compared among treatments individually using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). In this test, each stand mean was weighted according to the total number of habitat surveys collected in that stand during the 3 year study, using the WEIGHT statement in SAS v. 8.02 (SAS Institute Inc., 2001). This procedure was undertaken to account for the fact that replicates with more subsamples are expected to have results that are less variable than replicates with fewer subsamples. Significant differences among harvesting treatments were investigated via Tukey’s Studentized post hoc range test (a = 0.05). For all ANOVAs, model assumptions of homogeneity and normality were verified by examination of residuals. For each demographic variable we calculated a mean value for each stand in each year, and used RDA (ter Braak and Smilauer, 1998) to test for significant differences among harvest treatments and study years. If this multivariate test indicated significant differences, response variables were then compared among treatments individually using two-way repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA). As with the analysis of vegetation variables, each stand mean was weighted according to the number of observations collected in that stand using the WEIGHT statement in SAS v. 8.02 (SAS Institute Inc., 2001). We first tested the full model (treatment, year, and treatment year interaction). Because none of the two-way interactions were close to significant (i.e., P > 0.15), we removed the interaction terms and re-ran the models. Significant differences among harvesting treatments were investigated by examining the least-square differences (a = 0.05). For all ANOVAs, model assumptions of homogeneity and normality were verified by examination of residuals. We tested for a significant (P < 0.05) correlation between territory density (No. territories/ha) and population growth rate (k) under the best case scenario using the Pearson Product–Moment 27 correlation coefficient. Neither territory density nor population growth differed among years, so single mean values for territory density and population growth rate were calculated for each stand and used in this analysis. To test for differences among demographic and habitat measures at nests attended by SY and ASY males we first calculated mean values for SY and ASY males in each stand. Too few SY males were present in most stands to allow separate comparisons for each study year; therefore, we combined data for the 2 years. We used separate RDAs to test for significant differences in habitat characteristics and demographic measures among harvest treatments. If the multivariate test indicated significant differences, response variables were then compared using individual split-plot ANOVAs with harvest treatment (0–5, 16–20, 21–25, or >50 years post-harvest) as the whole-plot factor and male age (SY or ASY) as the split-plot factor (Littell et al., 1996). Any among-treatment differences were examined using Tukey’s Studentized post hoc range test (a = 0.05). Finally, we used redundancy analysis (RDA; ter Braak and Smilauer, 1998) to examine the overall relationship between demographic variables and habitat characteristics in the four treatments. Correlations and model assumptions were tested in Statistica 7 (StatSoft Inc. 2004), redundancy analysis was performed in CANOCO, and all other analyses were conducted in the PROC GLM module of SAS v. 8.02 (SAS Institute Inc., 2001). 3. Results 3.1. Habitat measurements Redundancy analysis indicated that vegetation variables differed significantly with time since single-tree selection harvesting (F15, 39.05 = 3.642, P = 0.002). Tukey’s tests showed significantly lower basal area in the 0–5 years post-harvest stands compared to all other treatments (Table 1). Sapling cover was significantly lower in the 0–5 years post-harvest stands relative to the reference treatment, and understory cover was significantly lower in the 0– 5 years post-harvest stands than in the 16–20 years post-harvest treatment (Table 1). As a result of the openings created by harvesting, the 0–5 years post-harvest stands also had significantly higher cover from regenerative growth than the 16–20 and 20–25 years post-harvest stands. By 16–20 years post-harvest the understory layer was more developed than in the other treatments, but among-treatment differences were not significant (P = 0.066). Regenerative growth and sapling cover were significantly lower in 21–25 years post-harvest stands than in the reference stands. The reference treatment also contained significantly higher basal area than the 0–5 years post-harvest treatment, and higher sapling cover than was present in the 0–5 and 20–25 years post-harvest treatments. 3.2. Demographic variables Mean density of Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in this study was 0.212 (SE = 0.01) territories / ha, mean pairing success was 0.963 (SE = 0.01), and the mean proportion of ASY males was 0.629 (SE = 0.11), indicating that more after-second-year males successfully held territories than second-year males. Between 2006 and 2008 we monitored a total of 173 nests (20, 73, and 80 nests in the years 2006–2008, respectively), and we were able to determine nest initiation dates for 157 first nest attempts. Mean nest initiation date was May 26th (range = May 15th–June 2nd). Nest contents could be verified for 52 nests, yielding a mean clutch size of 3.81 eggs, and an average of 3.44 fledglings per successful nest. Mean daily survival rate (DSR) for Rose-breasted Grosbeak nests was 28 S. Richmond et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 276 (2012) 24–32 Table 1 Means of habitat variables (standard error in brackets) and results from one-way ANOVAs and Tukey’s tests comparing sites from four stages in the cutting cycle: 0–5, 16–20, 21– 25, and >50 years post-harvest (n = 3 per stage). Time since harvest (years)* Variable Forb cover (%) Regeneration (%) Sapling cover (%) Under-story cover (%) Canopy cover (%) Basal area (m2/ha) * P 0–5 16–20 21–25 >50 7.5 (1.2)a 20.2 (2.4)a 6.3 (0.9)a 20.8 (2.8) 81.2 (6.8) 22.1 (1.2)a 2.6 (0.5)b 7.6 (1.5)b,c 16.0 (3.9)a,b 34.5 (4.1) 90.3 (4.8) 27.2 (1.2)b 8.55 (2.6)a 5.5 (1.3)b 9.9 (2.5)a 27.1 (2.9) 89.4 (3.8) 27.0 (0.8)b 6.1 (2.4)a,b 13.9 (2.8)a,c 25.9 (4.1)b 25.3 (5.4) 93. 8 (7.2) 28.1 (1.8)b 0.005 0.005 <0.001 0.066 0.376 0.006 Superscript letters indicate significant differences among silvicultural treatments from Tukey’s HSD post hoc test (a = 0.05). 0.967 (n = 173 nests), mean period survival rate (PSR) for the entire 24 day period was 0.559, and mean productivity was 2.02 fledglings per nest. Pairing success and the number of fledglings per successful nest were significantly lower in reference stands than in at least one other post-harvest treatment, and density, nest survival, and productivity were also all lowest in the reference stands, although not significantly so (Table 2). The proportion of ASY males compared to SY males was highest in the reference stands and lowest in the 21–25 years post-harvest treatment, although the differences were not significant (P = 0.773; Table 2). Nests were initiated significantly later in 2008 than in 2006 or 2007. On average, female fecundity was 1.02 female fledglings per female (Table 3). Under the worst case scenario (low adult and juvenile survivorship) all treatments were population sinks. Under the best case scenario (high adult and juvenile survival), the population growth rate was stable in the 16–20 years post-harvest treatment and very close to stable in the 0–5 years post-harvest stands, but all other treatments remained sinks. Both population growth rate and density were lowest in the reference stands and highest 16–20 years after harvesting, and at the stand level there was a significant correlation between density and population growth rate (r = 0.61, P < 0.05; Fig. 2). 3.3. Relationship between habitat and demographic variables The first two axes of the RDA analysis explained 57% of the variance in demographic variables (41.6% and 15.4% for the first and second axes, respectively; Fig. 3). High sapling cover and basal area were strongly associated with reference stands (upper right quadrat). Regeneration and canopy cover were weakly associated with harvested stands (lower left quadrat). All demographic variables showed a weak positive association with harvested stands, except for nest initiation date, the proportion of territorial ASY males com- Table 2 Means of demographic variables (standard error in brackets) and results from two-way repeated measures ANOVAs and least-squares means tests comparing sites from four stages in the cutting cycle: 0–5, 16–20, 21–25, and >50 years post-harvest (n = 3 per stage) and three study years (2006–2008). Standard error and sample sizes (n) are shown in brackets, with n representing the number of observations per treatment. Demographic variable Time since harvest (years) Density (No. territories /ha) Pairing success (prop. males paired) Proportion of territorial ASY males Nest initiation date 2006 2007 2008 Clutch size No. fledglings/successful nest Mayfield period nest survival rate Productivity (No. fledglings/nest) * * 0–5 16–20 21–25 >50 0.246 (0.02, 71) 0.990 (0.01, 55)a 0.598 (0.08, 54) May 27 (5.50, 2) May 24 (0.88, 25) May 27 (0.46, 25) 4.000 (0.07, 21) 3.619 (0.13, 29)a 0.524 (0.09, 55) 2.305 (0.35, 55) 0.254 (0.03, 64) 0.972 (0.02, 34)a 0.634 (0.08, 34) May 26 (1.81, 6) May 24 (1.03, 15) May 28 (0.56, 16) 3.667 (0.17, 27) 3.333 (0.24, 21)ab 0.598 (0.09, 34) 1.603 (0.28, 34) 0.187 (0.02, 55.25) 1.000 (0.0, 38)a 0.550 (0.09, 36) May 24 (1.28, 7) May 22 (0.87, 18) May 27 (0.87, 22) 3.625 (0.12, 13) 3.500 (0.16, 25)ab 0.654 (0.12, 38) 2.282 (0.47, 38) 0.162 (0.01, 43) 0.892 (0.01, 29)b 0.725 (0.11, 27) May 24 (1.03, 2) May 25 (1.12, 13) May 27 (0.76, 13) 3.833 (0.40, 6) 2.833 (0.48, 13)b 0.437 (0.09, 29) 1.383 (0.62, 29) P (treatment) P (year) 0.202 <0.001 0.773 0.690 0.580 0.751 0.532 0.017 0.425 0.462 0.529 0.084 0.341 <0.001 0.205 0.060 0.321 0.175 Superscript letters indicate significant differences between silvicultural treatments from Tukey’s HSD post hoc test (a = 0.05). Table 3 Population growth rates for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks breeding in 12 tolerant hardwood stands in Algonquin Provincial Park harvested by single-tree selection. Stands represent four stages in the cutting cycle: 0–5, 16–20, 21–25, and >50 years post-harvest. Models show intrinsic (k) and exponential (r) population growth rates under best case (high adult and juvenile survival) and worst case (low adult and juvenile survival) scenarios. Treatments are designated as stable if k is P1 and a sink if k is <1. Time since harvest (years) Best case scenario 0–5 16–20 21–25 >50 Worst case scenario 0–5 16–20 21–25 >50 a b c Adult survival probabilitya Annual juvenile survivalb Female fecundityc k Upper and lower 95% CI Population status 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.337 0.417 0.249 0.198 1.019 1.012 1.022 1.012 0.966 1.025 0.893 0.848 0.864–1.070 0.922–1.128 0.790–0.996 0.745–0.951 Stable Stable Sink Sink 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.221 0.274 0.163 0.130 1.019 1.012 1.022 1.012 0.713 0.760 0.649 0.614 0.610–0.816 0.657–0.863 0.546–0.752 0.511–0.717 Sink Sink Sink Sink Estimates obtained from literature on other Neotropical migratory songbirds. Fledgling survival probability multiplied by annual juvenile survival rate, assumed to be equal to adult survival probability. Mean No. of female offspring/successful nest/year, assuming one attempt at re-nesting following nest failure. S. Richmond et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 276 (2012) 24–32 1.4 Population growth rate (λ) 1.2 0-5 16-20 21-25 1 > 50 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 Density (no. territories/ ha) Fig. 2. Relationship between territory density and population growth rate (k) under the best case scenario for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in Algonquin Provincial Park, Canada. Solid triangles = 0–5 years post-harvest stands, solid squares = 16–20 years post-harvest stands, solid diamonds = 21–25 years post-harvest stands, unfilled circles = reference stands. pared to SY males, and clutch size, which were not clearly associated with any treatment. Nest initiation, clutch size, and the proportion of ASY males were all positively correlated with understory cover, whereas the remaining demographic parameters were positively associated with regenerative growth and canopy cover and negatively associated with forbs, sapling cover, and basal area. 3.4. Age of male parent Redundancy analysis indicated that there were no significant differences in percent cover by regenerative growth, saplings, understory, and canopy cover or in basal area at nests attended by SY and ASY males (F5, 14 = 0.42, P = 0.827). The interaction between harvest treatment and male age (SY or ASY) was also not significant (F15, 39.05 = 0.78, P = 0.691). 29 Demographic measures for SY and ASY males did not differ significantly among harvest treatments (F15, 39.05 = 1.06, P = 0.539), suggesting that single-tree selection did not differentially affect SY and ASY males. The interaction between harvest treatment and male age was also not significant (F15, 39.05 = 0.87, P = 0.669). However, demographic measures differed significantly between SY and ASY males (F15, 39.05 = 5.89, P = 0.010). In all treatments, territory density was significantly higher for ASY males than for SY males (Table 4). Nests attended by ASY males were initiated significantly earlier than nests attended by SY males, and productivity (No. fledglings produced per pair) was also significantly higher for ASY males than for SY males. Differences between nests attended by SY males and those attended by ASY males were not significant for clutch size, mean number of fledglings produced per successful nest, or period survival rate, but many of these measures tended to be slightly higher at nests attended by ASY males than those attended by SY males. 4. Discussion Habitat characteristics and demographic measures differed among stands harvested by single-tree selection 0–5, 16–20, 21–25 years previously and our reference stands. As in other studies, the most recently harvested stands generally had higher cover from regenerative growth, lower basal area, and lower sapling, understory, and canopy cover than other treatments (Robinson and Robinson, 1999; Flaspohler et al., 2002; Jobes et al., 2004; Moore et al., 2010; LeBlanc et al., 2011). The structural changes associated with single-tree selection appeared to have positive effects on both Rose-breasted Grosbeak pairing success and the number of fledglings produced per nest, although population growth rates were only stable under best case scenarios. Territory density and population growth rate were positively correlated, and both measures were highest in regenerating stands prior to the normal age of second entry (e.g., 20–25 years), suggesting that single-tree selection harvesting in the continuously forested landscape of Algonquin Provincial Park is beneficial to this species. Fig. 3. Relationship between seven demographic variables for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks and six habitat features in four post-harvest treatments in Algonquin Provincial Park, Canada. Demographic variables are mean territory density, proportion of territorial ASY males, pairing success, nest initiation date, clutch size, daily nest survival rate, interval nest survival rate, number of fledglings per successful nest, and productivity. Habitat features are percent cover by forbs, regenerative growth, saplings, understory, canopy cover, and basal area. Solid triangles = 0–5 years post-harvest stands, solid squares = 16–20 years post-harvest stands, solid hexagons = 21–25 years post-harvest stands, unfilled circles = reference stands. Inter-sample scaling was used, and the RDA was on the correlation matrix. 30 S. Richmond et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 276 (2012) 24–32 Table 4 Means of demographic variables (standard error in brackets) and results from split-plot ANOVAs and Tukey’s tests comparing sites from four stages in the cutting cycle: 0–5, 16– 20, 21–25, and >50 years post-harvest (n = 3 per stage) and three study years (2006–2008). Results are shown for second-year (SY) and after-second-year (ASY) males. Demographic variables are density (No. territories/ha), nest initiation date in May, clutch size, period nest survival rate, fledglings produced per successful nest, and fledgling produced per pair. Demographic variable Time since harvest (years) 0–5 Density Nest initiation date Clutch size Nest survival Fledglings/s. nest Fledglings/pair 16–20 21–25 >50 ASY SY ASY SY ASY SY ASY SY 0.12 (0.04) 24 (0.35) 4.00 (0.14) 0.67 (0.09) 3.71 (0.17) 2.83 (0.47) 0.07 (0.00) 27 (1.24) 4.00 (0.00) 0.63 (0.04) 3.60 (0.23) 1.53 (0.49) 0.11 (0.04) 24 (0.78) 3.62 (0.09) 0.70 (0.11) 3.25 (0.12) 1.72 (0.57) 0.05 (0.00) 27 (0.87) 4.00 (–) 0.54 (0.03) 4.00 (–) 1.64 (0.48) 0.08 (0.02) 22 (1.49) 3.83 (0.12) 0.86 (0.05) 3.67 (0.236) 2.80 (0.27) 0.06 (0.01) 28 (0.88) 3.80 (0.283) 0.71 (0.16) 3.80 (0.283) 2.08 (0.69) 0.09 (0.03) 25 (1.65) 4.00 (0.58) 0.63 (0.03) 3.67 (0.33) 1.71 (0.18) 0.03 (0.01) 28 (1.16) 2.00 (0.58) 0.68 (0.14) 2.00 (0.58) 1.00 (0.41) The higher pairing success of Rose-breasted Grosbeak males and the higher productivity in harvested stands suggests that forest management may provide additional nesting habitat and/or food resources for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks. In forest fragments, low male pairing success is associated with low resource availability (Gibbs and Faaborg, 1990; Burke and Nol, 1998; Zanette, 2001), suggesting that females may be more sensitive to reductions in food resources than males during the site selection and pair formation period. Previous research has shown that while some invertebrate taxa increase in abundance following selection harvesting, others decrease (Werner and Raffa, 2000; Vance and Nol, 2003; Latty et al., 2006; Nol et al., 2006; Shields et al., 2008). In early spring invertebrate prey may be more abundant or accessible for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in the harvested stands than in the reference treatment. Seasonal variation in arthropod availability, and the Rose-breasted Grosbeak’s plasticity with regard to nest site selection and foraging substrates (Smith et al., 2006, 2007) may help explain why all demographic measures were not significantly higher in one treatment relative to the others. 4.1. Population growth rate Population growth estimates indicated that under the best-case scenario, Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in our study area were replacing themselves in the 16–20 years post-harvest treatment, and in the 0–5 years post-harvest stands under favorable conditions for adult and juvenile survival (i.e., low predation risk, high food abundance). We did not include stands that had been harvested between 6 and 15 years previously, because when we established our study design, we were most interested in whether, at the time of the next cutting cycle, any negative effects of silviculture would have disappeared. However, since we found beneficial effects, it would now be helpful to examine the same demographic variables for grosbeaks in stands of intermediate ages to determine whether this species benefits for the full 20 years of regeneration prior to the next cutting cycle. Although population growth rates have not previously been determined for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in predominantly forested landscapes, this species is frequently found in regenerating forests 15 years after harvesting (Pelletier and Dauphin, 1996), and often increases in abundance following logging (i.e., Jobes et al., 2004; Doyon et al., 2005), supporting our estimates of positive population growth. Population growth models are highly sensitive to small changes in estimates of annual survival rates for adults and juveniles (Porneluzi and Faaborg, 1999; Powell et al., 1999; Woodworth, 1999), which despite technological advancements in radio tracking are still difficult to accurately obtain (Paradis et al., 1998; Anders and Marshall, 2005). We incorporated a range of values for adult and juvenile survival by calculating growth rates under best and P P Treatment Male age 0.375 0.335 0.620 0.312 0.127 0.142 0.005 <0.001 0.892 0.174 0.429 0.048 worst case scenarios, as well as using stand specific values for female fecundity, nest success, and fledgling survival to improve accuracy (Anders and Marshall, 2005). Given the worst-case scenario for survival, all Algonquin hardwood forests would be considered sinks, but we did not find evidence that single-tree selection harvesting was further contributing to the decline. Determining accurate survival estimates will be essential for concluding anything more than the relative value of post-harvest stand age to this species but is unlikely to allow us to determine whether populations are growing or declining at the scale of the park. Similarly, given the uncertainty in the population growth estimates under the two scenarios, we are also not able to conclude whether other factors operating on the breeding grounds are responsible for the overall declines observed in Ontario or not (Sauer et al., 2008). 4.2. Population age structure Rose-breasted Grosbeak nests attended by after-second-year males were initiated significantly earlier, and had significantly higher productivity than nests attended by second-year males, suggesting that more experienced breeders had a reproductive advantage over less experienced birds. First-time breeders of other species have shown lower nest survival than older individuals (Pärt, 2001; Forschler and Kalko, 2006) and they sometimes occupy poorer quality habitats (Møller, 1991; Holmes et al., 1996) or are paired with lower quality mates (Holveck and Riebel, 2010). In some cases, second-year birds may have limited access to highquality territories as a result of later arrival on the breeding grounds, incomplete knowledge of where to find good territories, and despotic distribution of more experienced breeders (Holmes et al., 1996; Bayne and Hobson, 2001). In our study, even though ASY males initiated their nests earlier than SY males, habitat characteristics at nests attended by SY males did not significantly differ from those at nests with ASY males, suggesting that differences in territory quality were probably not the main cause of higher productivity at nests with ASY males. Lack of experience, differences in timing, or lower quality mates are more likely explanations for the lower reproductive success of first-time Rose-breasted Grosbeak male breeders. Our prediction that the proportion of older males would be highest in the 16–20 years post-harvest treatment was not supported. Older, more experienced birds are sometimes more successful at obtaining and defending high quality territories than less experienced individuals (Catterall et al., 1989, Donovan and Stanley, 1995, Part 2001, Donazar and Feijoo, 2002). We did not detect a difference in the proportion of territorial ASY males among treatments. The slightly higher proportion of ASY males in reference sites as compared to our other treatments may have been the result of ASY males out-competing SY males in this treatment S. Richmond et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 276 (2012) 24–32 for a more limited number of available territories than were offered in harvested stands. Older males were less productive in the reference stands than in other treatments, but even in these stands their productivity was higher than that of younger males in most other treatments. Although single-tree selection appeared to be beneficial for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks in our study area, responses may be context specific. Residual basal area in forest fragments in the agricultural landscape of southwestern Ontario ranged from 23.1 to 24.5 m2/ha in harvested stands and from 24.5 to 29.0 m2/ha in un-harvested stands (Smith et al., 2006; Moore et al., 2010), which were similar to the basal area ranges observed in our stands. However, in the fragmented landscape the number of fledglings produced per successful nest was slightly lower in the harvested stands than in the reference treatment (Smith et al., 2006), whereas in our predominantly forested study area productivity was significantly higher in the 0–5 years post-harvest treatment than in the reference stands. As with other species (Rodewald, 2002; Phillips et al., 2005; Falk et al., 2011), Rose-breasted Grosbeak nests were parasitized by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothus ater) in the fragmented agricultural landscape (Smith et al., 2006, 2007), but were not in our predominantly forested study area. Presumably, openings in the canopy created by silviculture, which potentially expose songbird nests to visual predators and brood parasites (Andrén, 1995; Hanski et al., 1996), had a greater impact in the fragmented landscape than in our more forested one. These results suggest that the effects of timber harvesting to some extent depend on landscape context, and that adverse effects may be fewer in forested regions than in fragmented landscapes where cowbird parasitism is an added factor. 5. Conclusions In our predominantly forested study landscape, single-tree selection harvesting appeared to maintain or even improve habitat for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks. Many of the demographic measures we studied were lowest in the reference treatment, and both density and population growth rates were highest in the regenerating stands. Density and population growth rate were positively correlated, indicating that for this species density was an adequate indicator of habitat quality. Single-tree selection is not equally beneficial to all migratory songbirds, and may be detrimental to some forest interior species. Nonetheless, for species such as the Rose-breasted Grosbeak, which benefit from habitat features characteristic of regenerating forests, this system may present a useful management tool. Further research could investigate whether other silvicultural techniques, such as group-selection harvesting, also conducted at a small scale in Algonquin Park (Tozer et al., 2010), provide greater advantages for this species. Acknowledgments We thank K. Fletcher and the Algonquin Forestry Authority for their participation and support of the project. P. Wilson, B. Woodworth, and G. Humphries provided invaluable assistance in the field. 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