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Territories Acting for Economic Growth
Rome, 4 and 5 December 2014
Second Plenary Session
Evidence on medium and small cities performance
in the EU
Roberto Camagni
Politecnico di Milano, ABC Department
Urban Growth in the EU (annual GDP growth - LUZ)
1995-2009
0.16
0.14
y = -0.0157x + 0.1922
R² = 0.3308
Annual GDP growth in metro areas, 1995-2009
0.12
0.1
0.08
Milano
0.06
London
0.04
Paris
0.02
Ruhrgebiet
0
5
-0.02
6
7
8
9
10
Log GDP in metro areas in 1995
11
12
13
14
Urban Growth in the EU (annual GDP growth - LUZ)
2008-2010
0.1
y = 6E-05x - 0.0166
R² = 0.0287
GDP growth 2008-2010
0.05
0
7
8
9
10
11
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
Log level of GDP in 2008
12
13
14
About some questionable theoretical shortcuts
(Static vs. Dynamic Agglomeration Economies
Roberto Camagni, Roberta Capello and Andrea Caragliu
(61st Annual North American Meeting of the RSAI, Washington, November
12-15, 2014)
The NEG (Fujita et al, 1999) and the World Bank (2009) claim that:
- Mega cities show a higher productivity (GDP per capita): TRUE!
 They will grow more than smaller cities (NO!)
 policies have to support mega cities in order to maximise growth (NO!!)
As:
- size-derivative (“static” agglomeration economies) ≠ time-derivative
(“dynamic” agglomeration economies),
- > productivity does not mean > attractiveness: this latter should be
measures by “net” benefits (benefits – location costs), not by gross benefits
(GDP per head alone)
Results of an econometric analysis
on the sources of urban development
Dependent variable: changes over time of productivity advantages
associated to urban size
(operationally: growth of net urban benefits 2004-11 vs. 1998-2003)
Highly significant explanatory variables (sources of growth):
- not initial urban size!
But:
- an upgrading and increase in hosted urban functions (innovation)
- (and small cities benefit more from this upgrading of urban functions)
- an upgrading of functions present in the entire regional urban system
- an increase in the demographic size of the regional urban system (the
phenomenon of “borrowed size”: Meijers, 2013)
- the level of long-distance city-networks (cooperations with other cities).
There exist multiple options and strategies for the development of small
and medium cities, located both inside and outside large urban regions
The econometric analysis and results
Dependent variable: urban productivity increases
(1)
Model
-0.36
Constant term
(0.51)
0.02
City population
(0.03)
Growth of high level urban
functions
Growth of borrowed size
(2)
-0.53
(0.52)
0.03
(0.03)
(3)
-0.10
(0.06)
0.04
(0.03)
(4)
-0.04
(0.06)
0.04
(0.03)
(5)
-0.10*
(0.06)
0.02
(0.03)
(6)
-0.10*
(0.06)
0.04
(0.04)
(7)
-0.06
(0.05)
0.03
(0.04)
(8)
-0.14**
(0.06)
0.04
(0.04)
0.17***
0.15***
0.15**
0.15**
0.14***
0.15***
0.16***
0.16***
(0.06)
0.001
(0.00)
(0.06)
0.001
(0.00)
0.43**
(0.23)
(0.06)
0.001
(0.00)
0.46**
(0.23)
-0.31**
(0.19)
(0.07)
0.001
(0.00)
0.49**
(0.23)
-0.28
(0.19)
0.19*
(0.11)
(0.03)
0.002
(0.001)
0.45*
(0.24)
-0.00
(0.00)
(0.05)
0.001
(0.00)
0.46**
(0.24)
-0.00
(0.00)
(0.06)
0.001
(0.00)
0.43*
(0.24)
-0.00
(0.00)
(0.06)
0.001
(0.00)
0.45*
(0.24)
-0.00
(0.00)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Growth of borrowed
functions
-
Growth of networks
-
-
Urban networks
-
-
-
Growth of high level urban
functions * City population
-
-
-
Growth of borrowed size *
City population
-
Growth of borrowed
functions * City population
-
-
-
-
-
-
Growth of networks* City
population
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
136
136
136
136
136
136
136
136
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
OLS
OLS
OLS
OLS
OLS
OLS
OLS
OLS
Number of obs.
Robust standard errors
Method of estimation
Pseudo-R2
Joint F-test test
-
-0.15***
(0.05)
-
-
-
-
0.003**
(0.001)
-0.07
(0.31)
-0.00
(0.00)
0.09
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.12
0.12
3.01**
3.35**
3.09**
2.97***
14.50***
5.52***
2.46**
2.33**
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
Roberto Camagni
Department ABC - Politecnico di Milano
Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - 20133 MILANO
tel: +39 02 2399.2744 fax: +39 02 2399.9477
[email protected]
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