Download RMTF - EVM Subgroup "Catastrophe"

Catastrophe: An Investigation into the Origins of the Modern World
By David Keys
Ballantine Books, New York 1999
ISBN 0-345-40876-4
This book by David Keys, an archaeological journalist, illustrates several major points.
First, it illustrates how much the forces of nature and other mechanisms beyond human or
government control can play a role in changing our lives. Second, it illustrates how key
aspects of changes delivered by many interacting mechanisms can influence history and
make changes for a hundred years, with impacts for more centuries afterward. Third, it
illustrates how much humans can forget by 1500 years later, so that these events are now
almost unknown. Finally, it illustrates how professionals in many disciplines and parts of
the world can interact to find new understanding and interpretations to historical events.
David Keys researched and documented the book and its conclusions over a period of
four years. In 1983 an article reported Roman historical evidence of a climate disaster in
the mid-sixth century. David learned of the disaster in 1994, and completed this book by
1999.
In preparing this book, David consulted experts in many fields. Examples include
Byzantinists, Islamicists, Yemen specialists, Turkic specialists, African archaeology, Far
East specialists, historians of Europe, pre-Columbianists, dendrochronologists,
volcanologists, epidemiologists, geneticist, zoologist, grazing ecologist, ice-core
specialists, and late Roman ivory experts.
The events described in the book are briefly summarized here. The book has
documentation and evidence to explain the interpretations. About 535 AD, a large
caldera between Java and Sumatra erupted, possibly breaking the two islands into two if
they were indeed one island at that time. The event was one of the largest volcanic
events in the past fifty thousand years. The sound was recorded in China at a distance of
5,000 miles. Summer temperatures fell to the coldest in 2,000 years, and crop failures
lasted for a decade. David shows in the book, and through consulting 50 academic
specialists in 20 countries, that the following were partly caused by this volcanic event:
• Bubonic plague spread from African gerbils into Black Rats and into Europe
• Climate changes in Mongolia causes Turks to drive the Avars into Europe
• By 630, both the Roman empire and the Avars were exhausted from war
• In the Middle East, Islam was established and spread
• Turks spread from the East to Bulgaria, Ukraine, Kashmir, and modern Turkey
• Britain had weather disasters until 555, while Anglo-Saxons increased and Celts
decreased
• Ireland experienced a series of famines and political upheavals
• The Franks seized Gaul from the Romans
• Visigoths took over Spain
• Yellow dust fell like snow in China and civil war arose throughout China
• China was reunified by 588 when the northern Chinese empire conquered the south
• After famines, Buddhism spread in Korea and Japan
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Drought in Mexico brought Teotihuacan and Tikal famine and collapse
New Mayan cities were built and later declined from overpopulation
Anasazi and Mississippian North American cultures changed abruptly
Drought led to conflict and mass sacrifices in Peru
Huari and Tiwanaku empires arose in the Andes, leading to the Inca Empire
David Keys cites caldera under Yellowstone, Long Valley CA, Naples, Rabaul New
Guinea, and five others in Mexico and the Aleutians. He indicates that a major eruption
of any of the above caldera could cause major drought, famine, and instability in the
world.
Certainly, these are not insurable events that can be foreseen. Few businesses would
pay for the insurance against such events. Few customers would patronize products
with such overhead costs. Few insurance companies would survive the upheaval of one
hundred years of instability caused by such events. At the same time, it is folly to
ignore past history and assume that destabilizing events do not occur. This book
provides an education to one who wishes to see the impact of extreme events and to
think broadly about appropriate responses.
- - reviewed by Robert W Guth, PhD, FSA, MAAA
- - [email protected]