Download Hovedstyremøte 17. desember 2003

Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting
3 November 2004
1
Norges Bank
Economic developments
2
Norges Bank
Industrial output in the US, Japan and the euro area
Three-month moving average. Seasonally adjusted. Volume
5
5
4
4
3
3
US
Euro area
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
Japan
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
1997
-5
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Sources: EcoWin/Federal Reserve Board, Ministry of Economy,Trade and
Industry and EUR-OP/EUROSTAT
3
Norges Bank
Employment in the US, Japan, Germany, the UK
and Sweden. 12-month rise
4
3
4
3
Sweden
US
2
2
UK
1
1
Germany
0
0
Japan
-1
-1
-2
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-2
Source: EcoWin/National statistics
4
Norges Bank
China - GDP
So far this year. Percentage change on same month previous year
15
15
12
12
9
9
6
6
3
3
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0
Source: EcoWin / National Bureau of Statistics China
5
Norges Bank
Prices for some important commodities, measured
in USD. Index. 2.1.2003 = 100. Daily figures
260
260
Nickel
Lead
220
220
Copper
180
180
Aluminium
Zinc
140
140
100
The Economist's
commodity price index
Oil
60
Jan 03
100
60
May 03
Sep 03
Jan 04
May 04
Sep 04
Sources: Norges Bank and Ecowin/ London Metal Exchange, The Economist
6
Norges Bank
Interest rate expectations
Actual developments and expected key rate1) at 24 June and 28
October 2004. 2 January 2003 – 1 August 2006
6
6
5
5
4
4
UK
3
2
1
0
2003
1) FRA
3
Euro area
2
US
28 October
24 June
1
0
2004
2005
2006
and futures contracts adjusted for the estimated difference between 3-month money market rates and the key rate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank
7
Norges Bank
Forward interest rates
29 October 2004. Implied short-term forward rates
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
Norway
0
2004
Euro area
UK
US
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Source: Norges Bank
8
Norges Bank
Oil price Brent Blend
USD per barrel. Daily figures
60
60
50
28 October
50
40
10 September
40
30
30
Futures prices 24 June (IR 2/04)
20
20
10
10
0
2002
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Sources: Norges Bank, Telerate and IPE
9
Norges Bank
Spread Brent-Dubai and WTI-Brent
14-day moving average. USD per barrel
14
14
12
12
10
Spread Brent and Dubai
10
8
8
6
6
4
Spread WTI and Brent
4
2
2
0
0
-2
2001
-2
2002
2003
2004
Sources: EcoWin AB 10
Norges Bank
Oil futures prices
USD per barrel light crude. Daily figures
60
60
50
50
40
Delivery in 1 month
30
30
Delivery in 6-7 years
20
10
2001
40
20
10
2002
2003
2004
Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin/NYMEX
11
Norges Bank
OPEC 10 spare capacity
Annual
figures
Million barrels per day
8
8
Monthly figures
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
Sources: EIA (annual figures) and IEA (monthly figures)
12
Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced
goods and services1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 2/04
(broken line).12-month rise. Per cent
3
2
1
0
3
2
Goods and services
produced in Norway (0.7)
1
CPI-ATE
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
Imported consumer goods (0.3)
-4
-4
1)
Norges Bank's estimates
-5
-5
Jul 03
Oct 03
Jan 04
Apr 04
Jul 04
Oct 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
13
Norges Bank
Developments in the krone exchange rate1) (I-44)
Daily figures. 1 January 2002 – 1 November 2004
85
85
90
90
95
95
100
100
1)A
105
Jan 02
rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate
Jun 02
Nov 02
Apr 03
Sep 03
Feb 04
105
Jul 04
Source: Norges Bank
14
Norges Bank
House prices
NEF/ECON (Januar 1998–October 2004) and SN (98 Q1– 04 Q3).
Percentage rise on same period previous year
30
30
25
25
20
20
SN
15
15
10
10
NEF
5
5
0
0
-5
1998
-5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Sources: Statistics Norway (SN), Norw. Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms
15
Norges Bank
Building starts - dwellings and other buildings
1000 m2 per month. Trend. January 2000 - August 2004
400
400
350
350
300
250
300
Other building starts
250
Housing starts
200
200
150
150
100
2000
100
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Statistics Norway
16
Norges Bank
Price index for office and commercial property
Index 2000 = 100. 1st half of 1996 – 1st half of 2004
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Statistics Norway
17
Norges Bank
Credit from domestic sources to households and nonfinancial enterprises (C2). Percentage growth on same month
previous year. August 2001 – September 2004
15
15
C2 households
12
12
C2 total
9
9
6
6
C2 non-financial
enterprises
3
3
0
-3
Aug 01 Jan 02
0
-3
Jun 02 Nov 02
Apr 03 Sep 03 Feb 04
Jul 04
Source: Norges Bank
18
Norges Bank
Local government revenues, underlying spending growth
over the central government budget and mainland GDP
Percentage change in value from 2003 to 2005
15
15
12
12
9
9
6
6
3
3
0
Revenues
Local government
Spending
Central government
GDP
Mainland Norway
Source: National Budget 2005
0
19
Norges Bank
Developments in employment and output
four quarters after the start of a cyclical upturn1). Mainland Norway. Per cent
4
3
4
Now
3
Previous
2
2
1
1
Previous
Now
0
0
Mainland GDP
Number employed
1) We
have assumed that the previous cyclical upturns began in 1982 Q4 and 1991 Q4.
The current cyclical upturn started in 2003 Q2.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
20
Norges Bank
Assumptions for money market rates and the krone
exchange rate I-441)
(forward interest rate and forward exchange rate)
8
110
3-month money market rate
7
6
105
Forward interest rate 24
June (IR 2/04)
5
4
Import-weighted
exchange rate, I-44
Forward exchange
rate 24 June
(IR 2/04)
100
95
3
90
Forward exchange
rate 28 Oct (IR 3/04)
2
1
Forward interest rate 28 Oct
(IR 3/04)
1) A
rising curve denotes a weaker krone
exchange rate
0
2001
85
2003
2005
2007
80
2001
2003
2005
2007
Source: Norges Bank 21
Norges Bank
Projections and uncertainty for CPI-ATE1)
12-month rise. Per cent. January 2001– December 2007
5
5
30%
1)
50%
70%
90%
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2001
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for developments in the CPI-ATE.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
22
Norges Bank
Projections for the CPI-ATE1) and the output gap2)
Inflation Report 2/04 (blue) and 3/04 (red). Per cent
3
3
2
CPI-ATE
IR 2/04
IR 3/04
2
1
1
0
0
Output gap
-1
-1
1) CPI-ATE:
2) The
CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP
-2
-2
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
23
Norges Bank
Projections for main macroeconomic aggregates IR 3/04
2004
2005
2006
2007
4¼
4
3½
2¼
Private consumption
5
4½
3¾
2½
Public consumption
2
1¾
1½
1½
5¾
5
5
2¾
12½
15
5
-7½
4
4½
3
3
Imports
8½
6
4
1¾
Mainland GDP
3¾
3½
2¾
2
¼
1¼
1¼
½
4½
4
3¾
3¾
¼
1½
1¾
2¼
Annual wage growth
3¾
4½
4¾
4¾
Output gap mainland Norway
-¼
¾
1
½
Mainland demand
Gross investment
Petroleum investment
Traditional exports
Employment
LFS unemployment (rate)
CPI-ATE
Source: Norges Bank
24