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fourth edition Philip Mohr UNISA PRESS PRETORIA Figures Tables Boxes Abbreviations Foreword Preface . ix x xii xiii xv xvi topter 1 Introduction 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Economic indicators Assessing the performance of the economy Sources of economic data Interpreting economic data Some basic concepts and techniques Plan of the book 1 - 1 2 3 7 12 16 Total production, income and expenditure: the national accounts n 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11 17 19 20 22 27 29 30 34 36 38 41 The national accounts Total production, income and expenditure Gross domestic product (GDP) Three approaches to the measurement of GDP Valuation at market prices, basic prices and factor cost Valuation at current prices and at constant prices Some problems associated with GDP Gross national income Expenditure on GDP versus GDE The national income and production accounts Saving VI 3 Economic growth 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Calculating annual rates of change The appropriate basis for calculating economic growth Graphic representation of economic growth Analysing economic growth from the expenditure side Analysing economic growth from the production side Business cycles 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Definitions Determining the turning points of the reference cycle Business cycle indicators Other approaches to forecasting economic activity Employment and unemployment 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Population data Economically active population Employment Unemployment International comparisons Inflation 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 47 / 47 53 60 63 64 69 69 70 76 78 83 83 84 85 91 97 99 Index numbers Price indices The consumer price index Calculating an inflation rate Subindices of the CPI . The producer price index Implicit price deflators Comparison between different measures of inflation Reporting on and interpreting inflation data 99 102 106 111 116 117 120 124 124 VII apler' 7 International transactions 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 127 127 139 142 144 145 The balance of payments Foreign trade statistics Measures of openness Terms of trade Exchange rates Wages, productivity and income distribution 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 Nominal and real income Wage differentials Minimum living levels Productivity Unit labour cost Distribution issues 155 155 157 158 158 162 .164 „ Financial indicators 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 I j i 173 Money and credit Interest rates Some important interest rates and determinants of interest rates Some technical issues "" Share prices and other stock exchange concepts Economic indicators and the financial markets 173 175 177 181 182 185 Fiscal indicators 191 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 191 193 195 198 201 203 Composition of the public sector Statistics on the government sector Government expenditure Government revenue Budget balances Government (or public) debt " viii 10.7 10.8 Government saving (or dissaving) Internationa] comparisons 204 204 Chapter 11 Social and political indicators 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 Examples of social indicators Definitions Some international comparisons Human development index Poverty indicators Domestic comparisons Some political indicators 205 . / International comparisons 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 219 Sources of error Differences in definitions, methods of calculation and coverage of data The currency problem Possible ways of dealing with the currency problem Comparing South Africa with other countries Politico-economic indicators Some useful websites Index 206 207 209 209 211 214 215 "^ 220 220 221 223 225 228 232 233