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Economic Trends 627 February 2006 Methodology Notes: Links between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Value Added (GVA) Mark Brereton Office for National Statistics This is the latest article in a new series called ‘Methodology Notes’. This series aims to explain statistical issues relevant to our data in a simple, non-technical way. As well as defining the topic areas, the notes explain when, why and how these methodologies are used within the Office for National Statistics (ONS) . Where possible, we also point the reader to further sources of information. Introduction GDP and GVA are measures of economic activity before allowing for depreciation (or capital consumption) of fixed assets. However, it is important to note there are differences between GDP and GVA. What is Gross Domestic Product? Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is defined as the total value of all goods and services produced within a country. In the United Kingdom, three theoretical approaches are used to estimate GDP: production, income and expenditure. GDP is either shown in current (nominal) prices or in chained volume terms (after removing the impact of price inflation) and is the figure most often used to compare the performance of a country’s economy. What is Gross Value Added? Gross Value Added (GVA) measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector in the United Kingdom. The GVA generated by any unit engaged in production activity can be calculated as the residual of the units’ total output less intermediate consumption (that is, goods and services used up in the process of producing the output), or as the sum of the factor incomes generated by the production process. GVA also allows for regional analysis and productivity comparisons to be made. Link between GDP and GVA – which is the more appropriate to use? GDP at market prices provides a key indicator of the state of the whole economy and is used in analysing the expenditure measure of GDP. However, when using the production or income approaches, the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector is measured using GVA at basic prices, and not by using GDP at market prices. The production approach looks at the contribution of each economic unit by estimating the value of their output less the value of inputs used in the production process to produce their output. The income approach measures the incomes earned by individuals and corporations in the production of goods and services. The link between GVA and GDP in both current prices and chained volume terms is shown below: Gross Value Added at basic prices plus Taxes on products less Subsidies on products equals Gross Domestic Product at market prices Office for National Statistics 25 Methodology notes: Links between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Value Added (CVA) Taxes on products less subsidies on products are also known in the UK National Accounts as the Basic Price Adjustment (BPA). GVA forms a component in the estimation of GDP. The valuation link between GVA and GDP is given below: impact, GVA and GDP in chained volume terms grow at the same rate. For further information on the UK estimation of GDP and GVA: ■ Basic Prices Gross Value Added (GVA) + = Taxes on Products – Subsidies on Products (BPA) Market Prices Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The production, income and expenditure approaches to GDP are wholly integrated in the Input-Output Annual Supply and Use Tables framework. Consistent income totals can be derived in three ways: by industry, by institutional sector and by category of income. When balanced, the UK InputOutput Annual Supply and Use Tables provide a coherent and consistent story for a single year, including: ■ a single annual estimate of GDP at current market prices, which is underpinned with the components of the production, income and expenditure measures of GDP ■ detailed Goods and Services Account ■ Production Accounts by sector and by industry ■ generation of Income Accounts by sector and by industry Why has there been debate about the growth rates of GDP and GVA? When measuring at current prices – that is, before adjustments are made for price inflation – it is clearly possible for the growth rates of GDP and GVA to differ. This is because the former is measured at market prices while the latter is measured at basic prices (that is, deducting taxes (less subsidies) on products). Given that the prices used are different, it is not surprising that at times the growth rates will also differ. Indeed, this is inevitable unless growth is evenly spread across all sectors. It has recently been argued that the BPA – which is responsible for these differences between GVA and GDP – causes only a nominal effect and not a real one. It changes nothing in the volume of output. Ideally, the BPA would have a corresponding deflator showing its real effect to be zero. Unfortunately, as all the different sectors within the economy are growing at a different rate (this is called differential growth), the BPA is extremely difficult to deflate accurately. To solve this, ONS constrains the BPA growth rate difference to zero and sets the deflators accordingly, as conceptually it should not affect GDP growth in chained volume terms. Consequently, with the BPA now constrained to make no real 26 Office for National Statistics Economic Trends 627 February 2006 The latest United Kingdom Input-Output Analyses, 2005 edition containing the 1992–2003 Input-Output Annual Supply and Use Tables and a range of other analyses. These are available on the National Statistics website address shown below: www.statistics.gov.uk/inputoutput ■ The link on the National Statistics website to GDP is shown below: www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=56