Download Water and Climate Change

Water and Climate Change
Ir. Salmah Zakaria, PhD, F.A.Sc
UNESCAP, Bangkok
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Outline
{
{
{
{
Water and Water Resources
Management
Climate Change Impact
Hydrological information
Case Study: Malaysia
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Outline
{ Water
and Water Resources
Management
{
{
{
Climate Change Impact
Hydrological information
Case Study: Malaysia
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Water Resources Management
{
What should be included
z
Resources
{
z
Land and water
Services
{
{
Water supply/sources ( D&I, Agriculture, Hydropower, fisheries, transport)
Pollution Control
z
{
Flood abatement
z
{
Natural phenomena, man made
Environment
z
z
Point source, non point source, soild waste
Biodiversity, low flow, retention for wetlands, etc
Governance
{
Management Instruments
z
{
{
Institutions, Legislations, finance
Awareness and Advocacy
Capacity Building
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Water Resources Challenges
{
Water Supply
z
{
Floods
z
{
z
Low flow, etc
Forest Fires
z
{
Impacting coastal degradation, Obstructing flows from hinterland, Receiving
polluted waters from the hinterland
Biodiversity
z
{
In water bodies (rivers and lakes) and coastal areas
From solid waste (brought into water bodies, by rain and man; leachate
Coastal Processes
z
{
Natural and flash floods, urban and rural
Pollution
z
{
Agriculture, domestic and industrial, environmental, hydropower, transportation
Peat swamp drainage, resulting in haze and lost of economic activities
Climate Change
z
Immediate impact is on water related issues and infrastructure
{
{
Governance
z
{
Planning, design and O&M is base on historical rainfall records
Legislation, institution arrangements, financings, strategies and priorities
Etc (eg transportation)
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM)
{
A process which
z
promotes the coordinated development
and management of water, land and
related resources
{
to maximise the resultant economic and
social welfare in an equitable manner
{
without compromising the sustainability
of vital ecosystems”
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM)
IRBM
{
z
z
{
{
coordinated management of resources in natural
environment (air, water, land, flora, fauna) based on
river basin as a geographical unit
balancing man's need with necessity of conserving
resources to ensure their own sustainability”
Integral part of IWRM
z
river basins constitute the management unit
{
IWRM provides the generic and common policy
Each river basin or sub-basin is unique
z
may have different focus
{
Agriculture, commercial/industries, eco-tourism.
etc
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
River Basin
Has a limited carrying capacity, a function of hydrological and hydrodynamics
Hydrological: rainfall/runoff relationship within each river basin
Hydrodynamic: change in flow condition, will affect all
initial environmental condition
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Outline
{
Water and Water Resources
Management
{ Climate
{
{
Change Impact
Hydrological information
Case Study: Malaysia
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
10 Worst effect of global Warming
(http://science.howstuffworks.com/worst-effects-global-warming1.htm)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Destruction of Ecosystems
Loss of Biodiversity
Conflicts and War
Economic Consequences
Disease
Drought
Storms and Floods
Heat Waves
Shrinking Glaciers
Rising Sea Level
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
The CC Challenges
{
more frequent extreme weather conditions
of floods and droughts in recent decade
z
Severe impact to various sectors
{
{
Agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and
marine resources, energy and public health
limited downscaling of global climate models
(GCMs) at appropriate finer grids
z
z
coarse resolution of GCMs does not incorporate the spatial
variation of topography and land use at regional and smaller
scales
Finer regional downscaling at regional and national level will
provide
{
{
Better and more reliable analysis of vulnerability
Better and more confidence to plan for adaptation strategies
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Conclusions of IPCC
After 2000 global studies & reports, at least 24 climate projection models
{
Summaries from AR4 of IPCC, Working
Group 2, on “Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability”
z
The impact of climate change will hit through
water in the form of
{
changes to the hydrological cycle and water
balance
{
increased climate variability , more serious
and frequent extremes of floods and
droughts
{
sea level rises
{
increased water temperatures
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
The Nairobi Statement,
17 April 2009 - 1
{
Guiding Principles for Adaptation to Climate Change
z
Land and water resources are particularly vulnerable to impacts of
climate change.
{
z
Guiding Principle No. 1 (Sustainable Development):
{
z
Adaptation must be addressed in a broader development context,
recognizing climate change as an added challenge to reducing poverty,
hunger, diseases and environmental degradation.
Guiding Principle No. 2 (Resilience):
{
z
Actions to adapt to climate change through an integrated approach to
land and water management are urgently needed.
Building resilience to ongoing and future climate change calls for
adaptation to start now by addressing existing problems in land and water
management
Guiding Principle No. 3 (Governance):
{
Strengthening institutions for land and water management is crucial for
effective adaptation and should build on the principles of participation of
civil society, gender equality, subsidiarity and decentralisation
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
The Nairobi Statement,
17 April 2009 {
Guiding Principles for Adaptation to Climate Change
z
Guiding Principle No. 4 (Information):
{
z
Guiding Principle No. 5 (Economics and Financing):
{
z
Information and knowledge for local adaptation must be improved,
and must be considered a public good to be shared at all levels
The cost of inaction, and the economic and social benefits of
adaptation actions, calls for increased and innovative investment and
financing
Implementing these Guiding Principles will be strengthened
{
through the establishment of partnerships that enable the combining
of strengths, mandates and institutional capacities. Forging
partnerships and working through networks will create the diversity
and creativity necessary to support land and water management for
adaptation to climate change.
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Outline
{
{
Water and Water Resources
Management
Climate Change Impact
{ Hydrological
{
information
Case Study: Malaysia
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Hydrological information
{
What are they
z
{
Rainfall, evaporation, evapo-transpiration, stream
flow
Their uses
z
Planning
{
z
Design of hydraulic structures and infrastructures
{
{
{
z
{
Where, when, how much
Hydraulic and structural design of bridges, dams,
culverts,
Drainage (floods, roads, housing)
water supply (domestic and industries, agriculture
Operation and maintenance
Changes will affect economic activities
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Changes to the hydrological cycle and
water balance
{
{
{
What are they
How significant are the changes
Can we quantify
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Outline
{
{
{
Water and Water Resources
Management
Climate Change Impact
Hydrological information
{ Case
Study: Malaysia
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Malaysia: Water and Climate Change
{
Water - IWRM
z
{
Policy and Implementation
Climate Change
z
z
z
Impact to water resources
Current Action Plans
{ Policy Initiatives
{ Technical Initiatives
What of the Future?
{ Share data and information
{ Cross-Cutting Strategies and prioritizing
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Malaysian Vision for Water in the 21st Century
Agreed in 2000 – MyWP Organised Dialogue
“In support of Vision 2020 (towards achieving
developed nation status), Malaysia will conserve
and manage its water resources to ensure
adequate and safe water for all (including
recognising the environment as a key water user)”
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Key objectives of the Vision
‰
Water for People
¾ All have access to safe,
adequate and affordable
water supply, hygiene
and sanitation.
‰
Water for Economic Development
¾ Provision of sufficient water to spur
and sustain economic growth within the
context of a knowledge based economy
and e-commerce.
‰
Water for Food and
Rural Development
¾ Provision of sufficient
water that will ensure
national food security
and promote rural
development
‰
Water for Environment
¾ Protection of the water environment to
preserve water resources (both surface
and groundwater resources), and
natural flow regimes, biodiversity and
cultural heritage as well as mitigation of
water related hazards
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Framework for Action
For Malaysian Water Vision
•
•
•
•
Managing our water resources efficiently and
effectively (addressing both quality and quantity
aspects)
Moving towards integrated river basin management
Translating awareness to political will and capacities
Moving towards adequate (safe) and affordable
water services (befitting a developed nation status by
2020)
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
189 River Basins
Management
Units (RBMU) in Malaysia
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Administrative Boundaries & River Basins
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
ƒ
ƒ
CGCM1 spatial grid resolution on the order
of 410 km over Peninsular Malaysia
Regional and watershed scales
more refined topographic & land surface
characteristics have profound impact on regional
climate
ƒ land use patterns/changes impact regional
climate conditions
z Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular
Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)’ was developed in
order to downscale the global climate change
simulation data (Canadian CGCM1 current and
future climate data) that are at very coarse
resolution (~ 410km), to Peninsular Malaysia at
fine spatial resolution (~9km).
ƒ
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Model Schematization Nesting 1st Domains
1. 1st domain is longitudes span
from East 91o-114o and its
latitudes span from 5o S to 15o
N.
2. 1st domain has 23 x 24 grids
and a grid resolution of 81 km,
which covers a region of 1863
km x 1944 km
3. RegHCM-PM is nested into the
First
Generation
Coupled
General Circulation Model of
the Canadian GCM (CGCM1)
4. CGCM1 provides the initial
fields and boundary conditions
to the RegHCM-PM, and then
the CGCM1 simulation results
are downscaled to the region
of Peninsular Malaysia through
several nesting procedures.
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Model Schematization Nesting 1st Domains
1. The grid layout for the 1st
domain of the RegHCMPM under Mercator
projection. GTOPO30 DEM
of the region is overlaid
on the outer domain grids.
2. Regional Hydroclimate
model (RegHCM) of
Peninsular Malaysia was
run first with its initial and
boundary conditions
provided from CGCM1
global historical
atmospheric simulation
data at 1st domain,
covering the whole
Peninsular Malaysia region
and the surrounding areas
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Model Schematization Nesting 2nd and 3rd Domains
1. The 2nd domain with 34 x 37
grids and a grid resolution of
27 km, which covers a region
of 918 km x 999 km, is nested
within the center of the 1st
domain.
2. The inner domain (the 3rd
domain) is nested within the
center of the 2nd domain &
has 64 x 76 grids at a grid
resolution of 9 km, and covers
a region of 576 km x 684 km.
3. The 3rd domain is the inner
domain of the updated
RegHCM-PM, which
encompasses the entire
Peninsular Malaysia and covers
a part of Thailand in the north,
Singapore in the south, and a
part of Indonesia in the
southeast.
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
The Findings of the 2006 Study
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Summary of Monthly Precipitation
West
Coast
Klang
Selangor
Terenggau
Kelantan
Pahang
Perak
Kedah
Johor
Historical
600.0
436.2
564.1
1271.2
929.7
633.6
722.9
626.7
591.7
Future
560.3
601.3
525.7
1913.9
1128.5
684.6
767.8
705.3
538.2
Diff.
-39.7
165.1
-38.4
+642.7
+198.8
+51.0
+44.9
+78.3
-53.5
(%)
-6.6
+37.8
-6.8
+50.6
+21.4
+8.0
+6.21
+12.5
-9.0
Historical
179.2
190.1
190.2
289.0
221.8
198.5
192.9
173.6
187.3
Future
176.2
182.3
180.9
299.0
239.5
208.4
199.4
176.6
180.0
Diff.
-3.0
-7.8
-9.3
+10.0
+17.7
+9.9
+6.5
+3.0
-7.3
(%)
-1.7
-4.1
+4.9
+3.5
+7.9
+4.9
+3.4
+1.7
-3.9
Historical
12.4
12.8
12.2
33.6
15.4
24.5
9.0
2.1
13.3
Future
7.9
5.9
8.3
14.0
10.9
16.6
4.1
1.1
5.2
Diff.
-4.5
-6.9
-3.9
-19.6
-4.5
-7.9
-4.9
-1.0
-8.1
(%)
-36.3
-53.9
-32
-58.3
-29.2
-32.2
-54.4
-50
-60.9
Sub-region Name
Maximum
Monthly
Precip
(mm)
Mean
Monthly
Precip
(mm)
Minimum
Monthly
Precip
(mm)
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Future Rainfall
{
In annual rainfall:
10% increase for Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang
5% decrease for Selangor and Johor
{
More droughts ie dry years (from modelling output: 2028,
2029, 2034, 2042 and 2044)
{
A increase up to 51% in maximum monthly rainfall over
the North East Coastal region
{
A decrease in minimum monthly rainfall over Selangor (32%) and Johor (-61% )
{
More extreme hydrological conditions may be expected
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Summary of Monthly Flows
Klang
Selangor
Dungun
Kelantan
Historical
31.2
107.9
398.4
1535.1
1697.4
523.7
307.4
82.7
Future
45.8
108.5
569.5
1950.7
2176.6
578.2
340.0
94.0
Diff.
+14.6
+0.6
+171.1
+415.6
+479.2
+54.5
+32.6
+11.3
(%)
+46.8
+0.6
+42.9
+27.1
+28.2
+10.4
+10.6
+13.7
Historical
14.4
40.7
93.4
535.9
669.6
286.4
105.6
32.7
Future
13.3
37.5
98.3
601.7
718.1
299.7
104.0
31.8
Diff.
-1.1
-3.2
+4.9
+65.8
+48.5
+13.3
-1.6
-0.9
(%)
-7.6
-7.9
+5.2
+12.3
+7.2
+4.6
-1.5
-2.8
Historical
2.6
7.1
13.1
158.4
156.3
183.6
25.3
9.8
Future
3.5
0.5
10.8
125.8
122.7
139.2
5.3
6.8
Diff.
+0.9
-6.6
-2.3
-32.6
-33.6
-44.4
-20
-3
(%)
+34.6
-93.0
-17.6
-20.6
-21.5
-24.2
-79.1
-30.6
River
Maximum
Monthly
Flows
(cms)
Mean
Monthly
Flows
(cms)
Minimum
Monthly
Flows
(cms)
Pahang
Perak
Muda
Johor
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Future River Flow
{
{
{
Future monthly flows - the maximum monthly
flows will be significantly higher (+11% to
+43%) for Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang
and the minimum monthly flows significantly
lower (-31% to -93%) for Selangor and Johor
An increase in inter-annual and intra-seasonal
variability with increased hydrologic extremes
(higher high flows, and lower low flows) in
Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu and Kedah
watersheds
Expect more severe floods and droughts
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Summary of Monthly Air Temperature
West Coast
Klang
Selangor
Terengganu
Historical
28.9
27.7
27.7
28.2
28.0
28.3
Future
30.7
29.7
29.5
29.9
29.6
29.9
Increase
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
% Increase
6.2%
7.2%
6.5%
6.0%
5.7%
5.7%
Historical
27.3
26.5
26.4
25.5
25.3
26.1
Future
28.6
27.9
27.8
26.8
26.5
27.4
Increase
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.3
% Increase
4.7%
5.3%
5.3%
5.1%
4.7%
5.0%
Historical
24.9
24.8
24.7
21.9
21.0
22.8
Future
26.2
25.5
25.4
23.1
22.4
24.1
Increase
1.3
0.7
0.7
1.2
1.4
1.3
% Increase
5.2%
2.8%
2.8%
5.5%
6.7%
5.7%
Subregion Name
Maximum
Monthly
Air Temp
(deg C)
Mean
Monthly
Air
Temp
(deg C)
Minimum
Monthly
Air
Temp
(deg C)
Kelantan
Pahang
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Future Air Temperature
{
There is an indicative uniform
increase of annual air temperature by
about 1 to 1.5ºC over all regions of
Peninsular Malaysia.
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
Climate Change Projection
GLOBAL*
Surface temperature (ºC)
(Emission Scenario SRES
A1B)
Sea level rise (m)
(Emission Scenario SRES
A1B)
Monthly Rainfall (mm)
Monthly River Flows (m3/s)
MALAYSIA**
2050
2100
2050
1.6
2.8
1.5
0.210.48
-
+51% Northeast Coast of Peninsula
- 61% (Johor)
+11% to +43% (Flood Flows)
-31% to -93% (Low Flows)
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009
THANK YOU
Workshop on Hydrologic Data Management and Modelling
in South East Asia, UM Kuala Lumpur 20-24 July 2009