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Transcript
Coal and 2 degrees C statement
#NoCoal2C
New unabated coal is not
compatible with keeping
global warming below 2°C
1
Statement by leading climate and energy scientists
Prof. Ogunlade Davidson, University of Sierra Leone, Sierra Leone
Prof. Peter C. Frumhoff, Union of Concerned Scientists, USA
Dr. Niklas Höhne, Ecofys, Germany/The Netherlands
Dr. Jean-Charles Hourcade,
Prof. Mark Jaccard,
Dr. Jiang Kejun,
Commission, China
Dr. Mikiko Kainuma,
Prof. Claudia Kemfert,
Prof. Emilio La Rovere,
Dr. Felix Christian Matthes,
y
Dr. Michael MacCracken,
Dr. Bert Metz,
Prof. José Moreira,
Prof. William Moomaw,
Prof. Nebojsa Nakicenovic,
Dr. Shuzo Nishioka,
Prof. Keywan Riahi,
Dr. Hans-Holger Rogner,
Dr. Jayant Sathaye,
Prof. John Schellnhuber,
Dr. Robert N. Schock,
Prof. P.R. Shukla,
Prof. Ralph E.H. Sims,
Prof. Jeffrey Steinfeld,
Prof. Wim C. Turkenburg, Copernicus Institute on Sustainable Development, Utrecht University,
The Netherlands
Dr. Tony Weir,
Prof. Harald Winkler,
counted as unabated coal, unless equipped with CCS.
Unabated coal is not a “low carbon” technology
1.
2
2
capture and storage.
2
e/kWh. Renewable energy technologies are emissions-free in operation,
2
and even over their full lifecycle result in much lower emissions. Typical values for lifecycle emissions for
2
2
2,000
ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES
POWERED BY RENEWABLE RESOURCES
ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES
POWERED BY NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES
Maximum
1,750
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
1,250
Minimum
Single Estimates
with CCS
1,000
750
500
250
–750
–1,000
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear Energy
Wind Energy
Ocean Energy
Hydropower
Geothermal Energy
–500
*
Concentrating Solar Power
–250
Photovoltaics
0
Biopower
Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions (gCO 2 e/kWh)
1,500
–1,250
–1,500
*Avoided emissions, no removal of GHGs from the atmosphere
incur emissions levels below those of unabated gas plants, and therefore be considered a low carbon
technology2. The only way that coal plants can be part of a low carbon future is for all new coal plants
to include CCS from the outset.
2
2
could be a distinct advantage.
needs to be stored compared with
2.
avoiding dangeroUs climate change reqUires that the majority of
fossil fUel reserves need to stay UndergroUnd3
harder to substitute.
4
GtCO2
FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES
3,863 GtCO 2
Oil
982 GtCO 2
Gas
690 GtCO 2
Coal
2,191 GtCO 2
2°C budget
1050 GtCO 2
The largest portion of this very small carbon budget will be needed in sectors where there are no readily
technologies with near zero emissions.
Building new unabated coal plants will extend the period during which coal continues to be converted
into atmospheric CO2
persists in the atmosphere for
2
many hundreds of years.
2
4 The carbon budget for a 2o
2
2
.
2
3.
cUrrent trends in coal Use are harboUring catastrophic climate change
Primary energy demand for coal (thousand Mtce)
11
Medium-term
coal market report
10
9
IEA scenarios:
6DS
8
4DS
7
2DS
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
include extreme heat waves, declining global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of
increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher under and malnutrition rates; many
dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter; unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially
in the tropics; substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; increased intensity of tropical
cyclones; and irreversible loss of biodiversity” .
4.
to keep global warming to less than 2°c above pre-indUstrial,
Use of Unabated coal has to go down in absolUte terms from now on
There is no room in the remaining carbon budget for building new unabated coal power plants, even
temperature increase to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. All of these scenarios support the
strong reductions in energy demand and early closure of existing coal plants there will be no room for
1,200
I
1,000
III
GEA-efficiency
II
II GEA-mix
III GEA-supply
800
EJ
II
III
I
I
600
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas wCCS
Gas woCCS
Oil
Coal wCCS
Coal woCCS
Biomass wCCS
Biomass woCCS
400
Coal woCCS
set to decline
by 80–96%
by 2050
200
0
2005
2030
2050
o
are simultaneously shut down before the end of their economic lifetime. For instance, the IEA “4
coal plants due to
Essentially, this scenario assumes the early closure of more than two subcritical plants for each
of unabated coal.
5.
alternatives are available and affordable
The cost of electricity from
renewable energy sources
has decreased dramatically.
In many places it is now
competitive with fossil fuelbased electricity (see Figure
cost of fossil fuel electricity
will increase and that of
renewable electricity will
decrease further in the future
(Frankfurt School UNEP
Collaborating Centre and
Range of fossil
fuel power OECD
Wind
onshore
Wind
offshore
2012
2020
2012
2020
CSP PT
(no storage)
CSP ST
(6-15 h storage)
Biomass-stoker/
BFB/CFB
renewable sources (excluding
Biomassgasification
UNEP Collaborating Centre
Biomass-AD
When the external costs due
to climate change and the
health impacts of air pollution
are considered, electricity
from renewable energy
sources is almost always
2020
Solar PV-grid
CSP PT
(6 h storage)
As a result, investments
in new renewable energybased electricity systems
have increased enormously:
of all the new electric power
capacity that came on stream
2012
2012
2020
2012
2020
2012
2020
2012
2020
2012
2020
2012
Biomassco-firing
Biomass
non-OECD
2020
2012
2020
2012
2020
2012
Hydropower
2020
2012
Geothermal
2020
0
0.1
0.2
2011 USD/kWh
0.3
0.4
Health
Climate Change
COAL FIRED PLANTS
(A) Existing US Plants
(C) Hard Coal Postcom. CCS
(C) Lignite Oxyfuel CCS
NATURAL GAS FIRED PLANTS
(A) Existing US Plants
(C) Natural Gas Comb.C
(C) Natural Gas Postcom.CCS
RENEWABLE ENERGY
(B) Solar Thermal
(B) Geothermal
(B) Wind 2.5 MW Offshore
(B) Wind 1.5 MW Onshore
(C) Wind Offshore
(B) Hydro 300 kW
(B) PV (2030)
(B) PV (2000)
(C) PV Southern Europe
(C) Biomass CHP 6 MWel
(D) Biomass Grate Boiler ESP 5
and 10 MW Fuel
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
External costs (US Cent/kWh)
6.
pUblic financing institUtions and regUlatory agencies are reining in
Unabated coal, bUt more is needed
be something every government considers for itself in terms of domestic developments and (for those
strong carbon pricing signals that are credible in the long term, regulatory action banning the construction of
unabated coal plants is also warranted to prevent further lock-in of future emissions. This would avoid large
amounts of capital being invested in assets that will need to be abandoned to achieve a 2°C pathway.
REFERENCES
New York. http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf
Angel Gurría, London, October 9. http://www.oecd.org/about/secretary-general/The-climate-challengeachieving-zero-emissions.htm
Assessment -- Toward a Sustainable Future, (Johansson, T.B., Patwardhan, A., Nakicenovic, N.,
pathways_hires.pdf
warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf
Contact: Dr. Bert Metz