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Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations World Data Center supported by the ICSU - WDS n◦ 2 2017 Provisional international and normalized hemispheric daily sunspot numbers for February 2017 Computed at the Royal Observatory of Belgium using observations from an international network with the Specola Solare Ticinese Locarno as reference station. Date R’I R’N R’S 1 2 3 4 5 47 47 39 17 13 35 47 39 17 13 12 0 0 0 0 6 7 8 9 10 13 13 11 20 24 13 13 11 20 24 0 0 0 0 0 11 12 13 14 15 22 20 19 16 24 22 20 19 16 24 0 0 0 0 0 16 17 18 19 20 19 14 13 25 32 19 14 13 13 27 0 0 0 12 5 21 22 23 24 25 26 29 24 27 32 26 29 24 18 18 0 0 0 9 14 26 27 28 38 48 59 26 43 59 12 5 0 26.1 74 23.6 61 2.5 61 Monthly mean Cooperating stations 1 Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last provisional value, calculated for August 2016: 36.0 (± 5%) 2016 Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Jan Feb SM CM 33 31 31 29 28 26 35 36 37 37 36 35 2017 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SM CM 25 24 24 23 22 21 34 32 31 31 32 33 2017 Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Jan Feb SM CM 20 19 19 18 16 15 34 33 31 30 29 28 SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier’s standard curves. The estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo–based estimator with Waldmeier’s method of standard curves, designed by K. Denkmayr. Ref.: K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : “About Sunspot Number Medium-Term Predictions”, in “Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V”, eds. G.Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103. Brussels, March 1, 2017 10:23 UT Reproduction permitted if source mentioned. Editor: Frédéric Clette 3, avenue Circulaire, B1180 Bruxelles, Belgium Fax: ../32/(0)2/374.98.22 Tel: ../32/(0)2/373.02.33 Email: [email protected] Web: http://sidc.oma.be/silso FTP anonymous : omaftp.oma.be, directory: dist/astro/sidcdata 2 Summary of the URSIGRAMs from S.I.D.C. Date Ri PPSI 600 2800 COS SFI XI Ak 31 35 12 - 76 //// 0 0/0 27 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 47 47 39 17 13 13 13 11 20 24 22 16 5 2 1 0 1 2 12 17 - 76 75 75 74 73 73 72 73 73 74 //// //// //// //// //// //// //// //// //// //// 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 32 27 22 12 18 15 10 4 8 8 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 22 20 19 16 24 19 14 13 25 32 13 11 6 4 1 2 3 3 1 4 - 76 76 75 75 75 74 75 77 78 81 //// //// //// //// //// //// //// //// //// //// 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 5 4 8 1 2 8 22 20 14 11 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 26 29 24 27 32 38 48 59 8 15 15 13 12 19 22 21 - 83 83 83 82 80 79 82 82 //// //// //// //// //// //// //// //// 3 11 4 2 0 1 2 3 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 5 10 15 20 8 2 11 10 Ri : provisional international sunspot numbers from the S.I.D.C. PPSI : prompt photometric sunspot index from the S.I.D.C. in 10−5 w/m2 : the quantity to be subtracted from the mean solar constant to account for the sunspot contribution. 600 : 600 Mhz solar flux from the station at Humain (Belgium). 2800 : 2800 Mhz solar flux from Ottawa (origin : Ursigrams - UGEOI). The 10.7cm Flux data are a service of the National Research Council of Canada. COS : thousands of the cosmic ray counts (origin : Ursigrams - UCOSE Terre Adélie). SFI : Solar Flare Index from the S.I.D.C. (origin: Ursigrams - UGEOR, evaluation : 1 x Sn+10 x "1"+100 x ">1". XI : X-flares index from the Ursigrams (M-flares/X-flares) (origin: Ursigrams - UGEOR, UGEOI). Ak : geomagnetic index from Wingst, Germany (origin: Ursigrams). 3 SOLAR PHYSICS DEPARTMENT UCCLE DAILY PROVISIONAL RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR FEBRUARY 2017 DATE 1 2 3 6 13 14 15 16 18 19 23 24 25 27 28 UT 1450 1015 1310 1555 1010 900 1030 1000 1000 940 1315 1205 825 815 840 NUMBER NUMBER OF OF GROUPS SPOTS 2 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 10 7 0 3 1 1 2 1 5 8 6 6 6 9 RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBERS TOTAL NORTH SOUTH CENTRAL 24 40 27 0 13 11 11 12 11 25 18 26 26 26 39 24 40 27 0 13 11 11 12 11 12 18 15 12 26 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 11 14 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 12 0 26 12 15 12 PPSI QUAL OBS 10-5 WM-2 21.3 19.6 1.2 0.0 4.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 4.4 5.4 7.0 21.9 5.9 2 3 4 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 4 2 2 2 OL OL OL BB BB BB BB AE LL OL OB OL FC FC BB The relative mean sunspot number is 20.6. ______________________ NORMALISED UCCLE OBSERVATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBERS U’=K’U FOR FEBRUARY 2017 K’= 1.125 (*) 1 27 7 2 45 8 3 30 9 4 *** 10 5 *** 11 6 0 12 The normalised *** 13 15 19 28 25 29 *** 14 12 20 *** 26 *** *** 15 12 21 *** 27 29 *** 16 14 22 *** 28 44 *** 17 *** 23 20 *** 18 12 24 29 relative monthly mean sunspot number is 23. (*) K’ is the mean of the monthly K’ for the last five years. ______________________ The Sun has been observed 15 days on 28 possible. 4