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Oral Program Tuesday, 29 November 2011 4.00 pm Registration Opens 5.00 pm Welcome reception & poster viewing Wednesday, 30 November 2011 7.30 am Registration 8.30 am Welcome & Opening remarks by Conference Chair 8.40 am Plenary [INV1]- Characterizing Recent Positive Natural Selection in Humans P. Sabeti, Harvard University, USA 9.10 am Plenary [INV2]- Viewing the evolution of bacterial pathogen populations through whole genome sequences S. Bentley, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, UK 9.40 am Plenary [INV3]- From immunology to epidemiology: Melding within- and between-host dynamics of infections R. Antia, Emory University, USA 10.10 am Plenary [INV4]- Duration of immunity following vaccination or infection M. K. Slifka, Oregon Health & Science University, USA 10.40 am Refreshments Session 1 [Phylodynamics and genetics] Session 2 [Multiple strains] 11.10 am [S1.O1] Phylodynamics of HIV epidemic explored using complex epidemiological models E.M. Volz, University of Michigan, USA [S2.O1] Rates of carriage acquisition, clearance and competitive ability for pneumococcal serotypes in kilifi, kenya from longitudinal data 1 1 ,2 1 M. Lipsitch* , O. Abdullahi , E. Tchetgen Tchetgen , 1 1 ,3 2 1 W. Xie , D. Weinberger , J.A. Scott , Harvard 2 University, USA, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust, Kenya, 3 Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA 11.30 am [S1.O2] Characterising the growth and transmission patterns of a pandemic using Bayesian phylogenetics J.A. Hedge*, S.J. Lycett, M.E.J. Woolhouse, A.J. Leigh Brown, A. Rambaut, University of Edinburgh, UK [S2.O2] Niche and neutral immune mechanisms promote the coexistence of pneumococcal serotypes S. Cobey*, M. Lipsitch, Harvard School of Public Health, USA 11.50 am [S1.O3] Assessing the impact of hepatitis B risk group vaccination: The power of combining surveillance methods 1 2 1 S.J.M. Hahné* , R. van Houdt , F. Koedijk , M. 1 2 van Ballegooijen , S.M. Bruisten , M. van 1 1 Dam , National Institute for Public Health and 2 the Environment, The Netherlands, Public Health Service, The Netherlands [S2.O3] Using a discrete-time state-space model to estimate the degree of cross-protection between serotypes of dengue virus due to infection 1 2 2 ,3 2 ,3 N.G. Reich* , S. Shrestha , A.A. King , P. Rohani , 4 5 1 R.V. Gibbons , D.A.T. Cummings , University of 2 Massachusetts, USA, University of Michigan, USA, 4 3 Fogarty International Center, USA, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Thailand, 5 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA 12.10 am [S1.O4] The effect of epidemiological dynamics on viral nucleotide substitution rates 1 2 1 1 S. Scholle* , R. Ypma , K. Koelle , Duke 2 University, USA, RIVM, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands [S2.O4] The roles of competition and mutation in shaping antigenic and genetic diversity in Influenza 1 2 3 1 D. Zinder* , T. Bedford , S. Gupta , M. Pascual ,4 1 , University of Michigan, Ann-Arbor, MI, USA, 3 2 University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK, University of 4 Oxford, Oxford, UK, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Chevy Chase, MD, USA 12.30 pm Lunch – Author Workshop Session 3 [Surveillance & vaccines] Session 4 [Spatial and temporal dynamics] 2.00 pm [S3.O1] Optimizing provider recruitment for public health surveillance networks 1 2 1 S.V. Scarpino* , N.B. Dimitrov , L.A. Meyers ,3 1 , The University of Texas at Austin, USA, 3 2 Naval Postgraduate School, USA, Santa Fe Institute, USA [S4.O1] Spatial structure of cholera transmission in Guinea Bissau: Implications for reactive vaccination 1 2 ,3 4 A. Azman* , B.T. Grenfell , F.J. Luquero , J. 1 1 Lessler , Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public 2 3 Health, USA, Princeton University, USA, Fogarty 4 International Center, USA, Epicentre, France 2.20 pm [S3.O2] Multi-stream influenza surveillance [S4.O2] Leading from behind: Intrinsic dynamics for situational awareness and spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread E.H.Y. Lau*, C.K.Y. Cheng, D.K.M. Ip, B.J. J. Dushoff, McMaster University, Canada Cowling, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 2.40 pm [S3.O3] Quantifying the risk of human monkeypox emergence in the aftermath of smallpox eradication 1 ,2 1 ,2 J.O. Lloyd-Smith* , S. Blumberg , P. 3 5 2 ,4 Mulembakani , P. Formenty , B.T. Grenfell , 1 ,2 1 A.W. Rimoin , University of California, Los 2 Angeles, USA, Fogarty International Center, 3 National Institutes of Health, USA, Kinshasa 4 School of Public Health, Congo, Princeton 5 University, USA, World Health Organization, Switzerland [S4.O3] Seasonal variation in the age and incidence of infection: Clues to the etiology of kawasaki disease 1 ,2 3 1 4 ,2 V.E. Pitzer* , D. Burgner , C. Viboud , L. Simonsen , 5 6 1 V. Andreasen , C.A. Steiner , Harvard School of 2 Public Health, USA, National Institutes of Health, USA, 4 3 Royal Children's Hospital, Australia, George 5 Washington University, USA, Roskilde University, 6 Denmark, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, USA 3.00 pm [S3.O4] The interpretation of serology 1 2 2 S. Cauchemez* , P. Horby , A. Fox , T. Pham 3 3 M. Le Quynh , N.M. Quang , 1 1 Ferguson , Imperial College London, UK, 2 Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Viet 3 Nam, National Institute for Hygiene and Epidemiology, Viet Nam [S4.O4] Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission 1 1 2 J.S. Koopman* , S.J. Alam , B.G. Brenner , E.O. 1 1 1 1 Romero-Severson , X. Zhang , L. Zhong , University 2 of Michigan, USA, McGill University, Canada 3.20 pm [S3.O5] Cost-effectiveness of historical strategic changes in the global polio eradication campaign G. Chabot-Couture*, K. Nigmatulina, P. Eckhoff, Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, USA [S4.O5] Spatial dynamics of respiratory syncytial Virus (RSV) epidemics in the USA 1 1 ,2 1 1 ,3 C. Viboud* , V.E. Pitzer , W. Alonso , L. Simonsen , 4 1 1 ,2 1 , National C. Steiner , M. Miller , B. Grenfell 2 Institutes of Health, USA, Princeton University, USA, 4 3 George Washington University, USA, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, USA 3.40 pm Refreshments Session 5 [Social contact networks] Session 6 [Within-host] 4.10 pm [S5.O1] Measuring social networks for [S6.O1] Why does HIV-1 evolve so slowly at the infectious disease dynamics: Wireless population level? sensor networks and online social media K.A. Lythgoe*, C. Fraser, Imperial College London, UK M. Salathe, Penn State University, USA 4.30 pm [S5.O2] Determinants of human movement patterns in Africa T.D. Hollingsworth*, G. Toh, A. Gulati, D.M. Huntley, D.M. Aanensen, A.C. Ghani, Imperial College London, UK [S6.O2] The impact of host immune status on the within-host and population level dynamics of antigenic immune escape 1 1 1 1 ,2 1 S. Luo* , M. Reed , J.C. Mattingly , K. Koelle , Duke 2 University, USA, National Institutes of Health, USA 4.50 pm [S5.O3] Close encounters in a pediatric ward: Measuring face-to-face proximity and mixing patterns with wearable sensors 1 2 3 ,1 L. Isella , M. Romano , A. Barrat , C. 1 1 1 Cattuto* , V. Colizza , W. Van den Broeck , F. 2 2 2 Gesualdo , E. Pandolfi , L. Ravà , . C. 4, 2 1 Rizzo A.E. Tozzi , ISI Foundation, Italy, 2 3 Bambino Gesù Hospital, Italy, Centre de Physique Théorique de Marseille, France, 4 Istituto Superiore di Sanità Rome, Italy [S6.O3] Aging of T-cell immunity to influenza: Modeling of CD8 T-cell memory repertoire aging indicates that as memory decays it expands the useful 1 2 3 E.N. Naumova* , Y.N. Naumov , M.B. Yassai , J. 3 1 2 Gorski , Tufts University, USA, University of 3 Massachusetts Medical School, USA, Blood Research Institute, USA 5.10 pm [S5.O4] Quantifying the effect of illness on contact patterns and the spread of diseases 1 1 ,2 K. Van Kerckhove* , N. Hens , J.W. 3 4 2 1 Edmunds , P.J. White , K. Eames , Hasselt 2 University, Belgium, University of Antwerp, 3 Belgium, London School of Hygiene and 4 Tropical Medicine, UK, Health Protection Agency, Belgium [S6.O4] Linking malaria in pregnancy to population transmission dynamics: A model of the progression of placental infection and the role of paritydependent immunity 1 2 1 P.G.T. Walker* , M.E. Cairns , J.T. Griffin , F.O. ter 3 1 1 Kuile , A.C. Ghani , Imperial College London, UK, 2 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, 3 Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, UK 5.30 pm [S5.O5] Modeling within-school contact networks to understand influenza transmission 1 3 G.E. Potter* , M.S. Handcock , I.M. Longini, 1 ,2 1 ,2 1 Jr. , M.E. Halloran , Fred Hutchinson 2 Cancer Research Center, USA, University of 3 Washington, USA, University of California, Los Angeles, USA [S6.O5] The phylodynamics of equine influenza virus H3N8 1 ,2 1 3 1 P.R. Murcia* , T.J. McKinley , D. Elton , J. Mumford , 3 4 5 R.J. Newton , P. Kellam , M. Caccamo , E.C. 6 1 2 Holmes , University of Cambridge, UK, University of 3 Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, UK, Centre for 4 Preventive Medicine, UK, Wellcome Trust Sanger 5 Institute, UK, The Genome Analysis Centre, UK, 6 Pennsylvania State University, USA 5.50 – 7.30 pm Poster session One Thursday, 1 December 2011 8.30 am Plenary [INV5]- HIV care in the US and Africa - Model-based analyses to impact policy R. Walensky, Harvard Medical School, USA 9.10 am Plenary [INV6]- The evolutionary epidemiology of HIV-1: insights into virulence C. Fraser, Imperial College London, UK 9.50 am Plenary [INV7]- Effective and efficient HIV programmes G. Garnett, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, USA 10.30 am Refreshments Session 7 [Veterinary] Session 8 [Policy] 11.00 am [S7.O1] When culling of livestock makes vector-borne diseases less controllable E.A.J. Fischer, Central Veterinary Institute, The Netherlands [S8.O1] Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock 1 ,2 3 1 D.E. te Beest* , T.J. Hagenaars , J.A. Stegeman , 2 2 1 M.P.G. Koopmans , M. van Boven , Utrecht 2 University, The Netherlands, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM, The 3 Netherlands, Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Animal Science Group, The Netherlands 11.20 am [S7.O2] Hepatitis E virus in pigs: Transmission dynamics estimated from field data 1 1 ,2 2 J.A. Backer* , A. Berto , F. Martelli , W.H.M. 1 1 van der Poel , Central Veterinary Institute of 2 Wageningen UR, The Netherlands, Veterinary Laboratory Agency, UK [S8.O2] The cost-effectiveness of UK vaccination programme and possible extension to it 1 ,2 3 1 1 M. Baguelin* , D. Cromer , M. Jit , E. Miller , W.J. 2 ,1 1 2 Edmunds , Health Protection Agency, UK, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK, 3 University of New South Wales, Australia 11.40 am [S7.O3] Transmission dynamics for bovine tuberculosis transmission in British cattle A. O'Hare*, R.R. Kao, R.J. Orton, P.R. Bessell, University of Glasgow, UK [S8.O3] The coverage of measles vaccination activities in Africa 1 2 1 J. Lessler* , C.M. Metcalf , D.A. Cummings , B.T. 3 1 Grenfell , Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public 2 3 Health, USA, University of Oxford, UK, Princeton University, USA 12.00 am [S7.O4] Bayesian Inference of Epidemiological Parameters for Livestock Diseases 1 1 2 S. Gubbins* , A. Gryspeirt , K.M. McIntyre , B. 1 3 Charleston , M.E.J. Woolhouse , D. 1 1 Schley , Institute for Animal Health, UK, 2 3 University of Liverpool, UK, University of Edinburgh, UK [S8.O4] Modeling varicella and zoster in Europe: can we cope with the current decision paralysis on mass immunization? 2 1 3 P. Manfredi , A. Melegaro , G. Scalia Tomba , S. 4 4 1 2 Merler , P. Poletti* , Bocconi University, Italy, Pisa 3 4 University, Italy, Università di Roma, Italy, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy 12.20 pm [S7.O5] African swine fever: Modelling the silent release from small scale farms and consequences for disease persistence in affected areas 1 ,4 2 1 S. Costard* , F.J. Zagmutt , T. Porphyre , F. 3 1 1 Roger , D.U. Pfeiffer , Royal Veterinary 2 3 College, UK, EpiX Analytics, USA, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique Pour le Développement, France, 4 International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya [S8.O5] The role of social connectedness in reducing risk of infection 1 ,2 3 4 J.L. Zelner* , J. Trostle , J.E. Goldstick , W. 5 6 4 1 Cevallos , J.S. House , J.N.S. Eisenberg , Princeton 2 University, USA, NIH Fogarty International Center, 3 4 USA, Trinity College, USA, University of Michigan 5 School of Public Health, USA, Universidad San 6 Francisco de Quito, Ecuador, University of Michigan, USA 12.40 pm Lunch- Editorial board meeting for Epidemics over lunch Session 9 [Influenza] Session 10 [Malaria] 2.00 pm [S9.O1] Waves of influenza in the presence of protective immunity: Evidence from models of the 1918 pandemic in England 1 ,2 1 R.M. Eggo* , S. Cauchemez , N.M. 1 1 Ferguson , Imperial College London, UK, 2 University of Texas at Austin, USA [S10.O1] Understanding Natural Immunity to Malaria 1 1 2 3 M. Pinkevych , J. Petravic , K. Chelimo , J. Kazura , A. 4 1 1 Moormann , M. Davenport* , University of New South 2 Wales, Australia, Kenya Medical Research Institute, 3 Kenya, Case Western Reserve University, USA, 4 University of Massachusetts Medical School, USA 2.20 pm [S9.O2] Impact of original antigenic sin on [S10.O2] How selection forces dictate the influenza dynamics: Insights from a variant surface antigens used by tractable history-based model malaria parasites A. Kucharski*, J.R. Gog, University of M. Severins, D. Klinkenberg*, Hans Heesterbeek, Cambridge, UK University of Utrecht, The Netherlands 2.40 pm [S9.O3] Incidence and mortality associated with the three major seasonal influenza strains: A/H3N2, A/H1N1 and influenza B 1 1 2 E. Goldstein* , S. Cobey , C. Viboud , S. 3 1 ,4 1 Takahashi , J.C. Miller , M. Lipsitch ,5 1 , Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, USA, 2 Division of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National 3 Institutes of Health, USA, Harvard University, 4 USA, Fogarty International Center, US 5 National Institutes of Health, USA, Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, USA [S10.O3] Evaluating the potential impact of seasonal intermittent preventive treatment in children on malaria transmission 1 2 3 4 M. Cairns , A. Roca-Feltrer , T. Garske* , A. Wilson , N. 3 1 1 Ferguson , P. Milligan , Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & 2 Tropical Medicine, UK, Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome 3 Trust Research Programme, UK, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Imperial College 4 London, UK, Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK 3.00 pm [S9.O4] Spatio-temporal patterns of the 2009 pandemic influenza in the US 1 ,3 2 3 J.R. Gog* , S. Ballesteros , C. Viboud , L. 3 ,4 5 2 Simonsen , L. Edelman , B.T. Grenfell ,3 1 2 , University of Cambridge, UK, Princeton 3 University, USA, National Institutes of Health, 4 USA, George Washington University, USA, 5 Surveillance Data Incorporated, USA [S10.O4] Spatial strategies for malaria control and elimination in Africa 1 1 1 1 A. Ghani , T. Garske , M. White , J. Griffin , J. 1 1 2 Marshall , W. Hinsley , M. Cairns , N. 1 1 2 Ferguson* , Imperial College London, UK, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK 3.20 pm [S9.O5] Inferring influenza infections from longitudinal antibody titres using Bayesian mixture models 1 1 2 G. Freeman* , H. Nishiura , J.S. Malik Peiris , 1 1 B.J. Cowling , Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 2 Department of Microbiology, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong [S10.O5] Evolution of the multi-domain structures of virulence genes in the human malaria parasite, plasmodium falciparum 1 2 1 M. Recker* , C.O. Buckee , University of Oxford, UK, 2 Harvard School of Public Health, USA 3.40 pm [S9.O6] Modelling influenza epidemics since the emergence of the pandemic H1N1 virus: Why a third wave in the UK? I. Dorigatti*, S. Cauchemez, N.M. Ferguson, Imperial College London, UK [S10.O6] Vector mortality and its impact on models of malaria transmission 1 2 3 1 T. Ben-Horin* , S.J. Ryan , L.R. Johnson , University 2 of California Santa Barbara, USA, College of 3 Environmental Science and Forestry, USA, University of Chicago, USA 4.00 pm Refreshments Session 11 [Genomics and evolution] Session 12 [Ecology] 4.20 pm [S11.O1] Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus 1 1 T. Bedford* , A. Rambaut , M. 2 1 Pascual , University of Edinburgh, UK, 2 University of Michigan, USA [S12.O1] Biomass transformation webs and their application to modeling anthrax outbreaks in Etosha National Park, Namibia W.M. Getz, University of California at Berkeley, USA 4.40 pm [S11.O2] Using bayesian phylogenetics to [S12.O2] Ebola and measles vaccine trials in study founder effects and strain captive chimpanzees & wild gorillas persistence in human influenza A P.D. Walsh, VaccinApe Inc., USA S.J. Lycett*, J.A. Hedge, A. Rambaut, A.J. Leigh Brown, University of Edinburgh, UK 5.00 pm [S11.O3] Using whole genome sequencing and mathematical modelling to inform bovine tuberculosis epidemiology in the British Isles 1 1 1 1 R.R. Kao* , R. Biek , A. O'Hare , R. Orton , R. 2 ,3 3 1 Skuce , D. Wright , University of Glasgow, 2 3 UK, Queen's University Belfast, UK, AFBI Northern Ireland, UK [S12.O3] Ecological drivers of contacts and pathogens transmissions between wild and domestic ungulates at the periphery of protected savannah areas in southern Africa E. Miguel*, V. Grosbois, H. Fritz, T. Boulinier, A. Caron, M. de Garine Wichatitsky, Cirad, France 5.20 pm [S11.O4] Whole-genome epidemiology of the Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreaks in Europe, 2011 1 ,2 2 3 Y.H. Grad* , M. Lipsitch , M. Feldgarden , H. 3 3 Arachchi , G.C. Cerqueira , M.G. 1 1 Fitzgerald , Brigham and Women's Hospital, 2 USA, Harvard School of Public Health, USA, 3 Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT, USA [S12.O4] Inter-species transmission of an ancient bat adenovirus? 1 2 3 3 C. Kohl* , B. Harrach , K. Mühldorfer , G. Wibbelt , A. 1 1 1 Nitsche , A. Kurth , Robert Koch Institute, Germany, 2 Veterinary Medical Research Institute, HAS, Hungary, 3 Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Germany 5.40 – 7.20 pm Poster Session Two 7.30 pm Buses leave for optional Conference Dinner Friday, 2 December 2011 8.30 am Plenary [INV8]- Unifying the spatial epidemiology and evolution of emerging epidemics O. Pybus, University of Oxford, UK 9.10 am Plenary [INV9]- Influenza adrift: Rethinking hemagglutinin antigenic evolution J. Yewdell, NIAID-NIH, USA 9.50 am Refreshments Session 13 [Stat methods] Session 14 [Public health] 10.20 am [S13.O1] Inferring population-level contact heterogeneity from common epidemic data 1 4 1 ,4 J.C. Stack* , S. Bansal , D. Hunter , S.A.K. 2 ,5 3 1 Vullikanti , B. Grenfell , The Pennsylvania 2 State University, USA, Virginia Tech 3 University, USA, Princeton University, USA, 4 Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, USA, 5 Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, USA [S14.O1] Planning mass immunization campaigns to prevent wild-type poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa 1 1 1 K.M. O'Reilly* , N.C. Grassly , C.A. Donnelly , C. 2 2 2 1 Chauvin , R.B. Aylward , C. Maher , Imperial College 2 London, UK, Global Polio Eradication Initiative, WHO, Switzerland 10.40 am [S13.O2] An online tool to estimate timevarying reproduction numbers from incidence data A. Cori*, C. Fraser, N.M. Ferguson, S. Cauchemez, Imperial College, UK [S14.O2] Poliomyelitis and the impact of the bivalent oral polio vaccine 1 1 2 2 T. Mangal* , K. O'Reilly , R.B. Aylward , C. Maher , N. 1 1 Grassly , Imperial College London, London, UK, 2 Global Polio Eradication Initiative, WHO, Switzerland 11.00 am [S13.O3] Estimation of heterogeneity in the effective reproductive number 1 2 3 1 L.F. White* , B. Archer , M. Pagano , Boston University School of Public Health, USA, 2 National Institute for Communicable Diseases 3 (NICD), South Africa, Harvard School of Public Health, USA [S14.O3] Mitigating pandemic influenza: An assessment of England's national pandemic flu service phone& internet-based patient assessment and antiviral distribution system in the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic 1 ,2 1 1 1 P.J. White* , B. Evans , R. Pebody , G. Smith , X.S. 1 2 1 Zhang , N.M. Ferguson , Health Protection Agency, 2 UK, Imperial College London, UK 11.20 am [S13.O4] Inference for multi-strain pathogen [S14.O4] Dispersal of hospital-acquired bacteria by models using time series and genealogies patient referrals through hospital networks 1 ,2 1 ,3 1 D.A. Rasmussen*, O. Ratmann, K. T. Donker* , J. Wallinga , H. Grundmann ,2 1 Koelle, Duke University, USA , National Institute for Public Health and the 2 Environment, The Netherlands, University Medical 3 Center Groningen, The Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, The Netherlands 11.40 am [S13.O5] Phylogenetics in the analysis of epidemic data 1 2 E. Kenah* , E. Halloran , I. 1 1 Longini , University of Florida, USA, 2 University of Washington, USA 12.00 am Plenary [INV10]- Using models for public health J. Edmunds, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK 12.40 pm Close of Conference, Poster prize [S14.O5] Elimination scenario planning - a framework for understanding the feasibility of achieving malaria elimination with current tools and making appropriate long-term plans accordingly 1 2 3 4 J. Cohen , L. Okell , D. Smith , R. Cibulskis , A. 5 1 2 1 Phillips , B. Moonen , J. Griffin* , Clinton Health 2 Access Initiative, USA, Imperial College London, UK, 3 4 University of Florida, USA, World Health Organisation, 5 Switzerland, University of California, USA