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00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xix Preface to Instructors When people ask me what I do, I say, “I teach Economics at York University.” While I am a full Professor, a productive academic with an active research program (past President of the History of Economics Society) and honourable service commitments to my school, my professional identity is largely tied to my teaching. As a young assistant professor, the immortality of publishing articles in journals that would forever be in libraries was an important goal. But over time, I came to realize how few people would read those articles, let alone be affected by them. Most of my, and I suspect your, “academic footprint” on this earth will be through our students. Over a career, we teach tens of thousands students. As economists and teachers, what do we want our lasting “economic footprint” to be? There is a wonderful old Saturday Night Live skit by Father Guido Sarducci called “The Five Minute University” (www.youtube.com/watch?v= kO8x8eoU3L4). Watch it. His premise is to teach in five minutes what an average college or university graduate remembers five years after graduating. For economics, he states it’s the two words “supply and demand.” That’s it. The serious question behind the skit, the one that motivates this book — and its microeconomics companion, Economics for Life: Smart Choices for You— is “What do we really want our students to remember of what we teach them in an introductory economics class?” I posed this question to college and university instructors at the British Columbia Economics Articulation meeting in May 2008. I asked instructors the following questions. Five years after your students have gone, what microeconomic concepts would you: • want students to remember as essential? (What would you be upset at hearing they didn’t remember.) • want students to remember as nice to have? • allow students to let go? (It wouldn’t bother you if they didn’t remember these.) Their responses coincided with my teaching experience and informed what was included—and excluded—in the microeconomics textbook, Economics for Life: Smart Choices for You. 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xx Macroeconomics for Citizens I then used my teaching experience and many discussions with other economists to decide what should be included—and excluded—from this macroeconomics textbook. We economists disagree far more about macroeconomics than microeconomics. So I have incorporated that disagreement into the core of this book as “the fundamental macroeconomic question.” If left alone by government, do the price mechanisms of market economies adjust quickly to maintain steady growth in living standards, full employment, and stable prices? ▲ When students see this icon, they will know we are discussing the ideas of the hands-off camp. ▲ When students see this icon, they will know we are discussing the ideas of the hands-on camp. xx PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS Not only do economists disagree over this question, so do the politicians our students will be voting for, not only five years later, but for the rest of their lives. I believe the essential macroeconomic concepts students must know to answer that question for themselves—the macroeconomics they need to know as citizens—are included in this textbook. Where disagreements exists, this book divides economists, politicians, and citizens into two camps based on their answers to the fundamental macroeconomic question. The “Yes—Left Alone, Markets Quickly Self-Adjust” camp believes that markets effectively channel self-interest to promote efficiency and economic growth, and are the most flexible way for the economy to adjust to changes. The “Yes” camp allows for business cycles, but believes they are caused largely by external shocks or government policies. Because they believe government failure is worse than market failure, they advocate, Chicago-style, a “hands-off ” role for government. The “No—Left Alone, Markets Fail to Quickly Self-Adjust” camp believes the self-adjusting mechanisms of markets can be slow and weak, so that business cycles, unemployment, and inflation will recur regularly unless the government steps in. The “No” camp believes business cycles are caused internally as unintended consequences of normally functioning markets — due to volatile expectations, money and banking, and Keynesian-style coordination failures between input and output markets. Because they believe market failure is worse than government failure, they advocate a “hands-on” role for government. I sympathetically present the strongest case for each camp. These camps, of course, are metaphors for extreme positions. No economist — or political party — fits entirely into either one. Think of the camps as the end points of a continuum along which economists and politicians are located. The extreme answers of the “Yes” and “No” camps are intended to sharpen students’ thinking about macroeconomic issues. This is what we do in microeconomics in presenting first the extremes of market structure—perfect competition and pure monopoly—to isolate the key issues before moving to the middle — monopolistic competition and oligopoly—where most industries are located. 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxi The core concepts include an aggregate supply and aggregate demand framework, complete with shocks and output gaps, that is developed in Chapter 4. But the heart of the framework is the enlarged circular flow diagram below, which recurs throughout the book. I believe that most essential macroeconomic issues can be presented simply and intelligently using this diagram. Concepts not covered in this textbook (the ones I let go) include: • Detailed measurement concepts like net domestic income at factor cost, • • • • • chained-dollar real GDP, and differences between the consumer price index, GDP deflator, and chained price index for consumption. Aggregate production function models. Graphical models of the global loanable funds market. Detailed formulas for the money multiplier and for alternative (Taylor, McCallum) monetary policy targeting rules. Graphical derivation of the aggregate demand curve from the aggregate expenditure model. Algebraic derivations of expenditure, tax, and transfer multipliers. I consider these exclusions to be a major strength of this textbook. The excluded topics detract from the student’s accepting the value of the basic economic analysis that will enhance her decision-making throughout her life. As one strays beyond the core concepts and stories set out in this book, diminishing returns set in rapidly. It is far more valuable, I believe, for most students to understand and apply the core economic concepts well—using the circular flow diagram to understand the “Yes, so government hands-off ” and “No, so government hands-on” answers— than to be exposed to a wide range of concepts they will not master and therefore will likely soon forget. PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS xxi 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxii Economics for Life uses no abstract graphs (many data graphs and charts of data are used for visual clarity) and almost no math. Many of my colleagues exclaim, “How can you teach economics without graphs? No math! Where is the rigour of the discipline?” Economics for Life has the same rigour as The Economist, the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and The Globe and Mail. None of these publications use abstract graphs or equations, yet they present sophisticated economic analysis. The rigour comes from learning to think about and analyze situations like an economist. If Stephen Hawking can explain theoretical physics in his book A Brief History of Time with only one equation, I believe the same can be done for economics. What I find exciting about this book is the possibility of helping far more students “get” the benefit of thinking like an economist. Since working on Economics for Life, I have been using the stories in my introductory university course for economics majors. Instead of lecturing on differences between real business cycle theorists, new Keynesians, and Monetarists, for example, I ask how Progressive Conservatives or the NDP fit into the hands-off and hands-on camps, and evaluate policy proposals in those terms. There has been a marked improvement in student interest and engagement. Instead of struggling to get them to pay attention to topics most view as irrelevant, I present narratives that come from their everyday experiences to make the concepts both meaningful and useful. If this book succeeds in doing what it has set out to do—and you and your students will be the judges of that — then your students will be more actively engaged with the material. Students will learn economics in a way that will stay with them—even five years after leaving your classroom. This brings us back to the question of your “economic footprint.” You will cover fewer topics using Economics for Life (the nine chapters can easily be covered in a semester, with room for discussion of current events), but your students will retain more. After five years, they will actually be ahead of students who were exposed to the full range of topics. Your economic footprint will be larger. You will have produced more students who have better learned the fundamentals of thinking like an economist, and who are making smarter choices in their lives as consumers, businesspeople, investors, and as citizens evaluating macroeconomic policies proposed by politicians. You will have succeeded in helping your students learn economics. Avi Cohen http://dept.econ.yorku.ca/~avicohen Toronto April 2010 xxii PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxiii Organization of This Book The Table of Contents for this book will most likely look unusual and unfamiliar to you. How it developed reveals why this book is different from other textbooks, and how that difference is an advantage to you and your students. Many authors, including me, have tried for years to write a textbook that would meet the needs of students in introductory, non-transfer economics courses. These students come from different majors and most take the course only to fulfill their diploma requirements, not because they are particularly interested in economics. They all bring special skill sets and special skill-based needs to your classroom. The challenge is to get these students to recognize that economic literacy enables them to gain personal benefits and become more intelligent consumers and better-informed citizens. There are gains beyond the classroom for learning economics. At first, we tried stripping down the table of contents for a standard university or college economics text and simplifying the contents of each chapter. We kept hitting brick walls. One day, I had an epiphany — it was the table of contents that was the problem! The standard economics textbook has a table of contents and chapter content that makes sense to economists—aggregate supply and aggregate demand, expenditure multipliers, open-economy macroeconomics, fiscal policy, the foreign sector — but to non-economists, the material is meaningless jargon. I realized that the chapter titles and content must make sense to, and have relevance for, your students—most of whom will not become economists. As the book evolved, it also became clear that this book would be useful and important to a wide range of students, beyond just those in non-transfer courses. In Economics for Life, chapter titles are designed for student understanding. The subtitles reflect the economic content and will be familiar to you, the instructor. The section heads within chapters use the same dual convention— titles for students, subtitles for economic content. This juxtaposition of titles adds more meaning to the economic concepts, provides an initial purpose for the student reading, and more closely ties the content to life outside the classroom. The following is an overview of what each chapter covers. The Instructor’s Manual contains a more detailed discussion of what’s in each chapter, what’s not, and why. PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS xxiii 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxiv PART 1 Thinking Like A Macroeconomist Chapter 1 Are Your Smart Choices Smart for All? Macroeconomics and Microeconomics Transitions from micro to macro, asking whether combined smart choices of individuals yield the best outcome for the economy as a whole. Using stories of the Great Recession and Great Depression, we introduce reasons why markets may not yield ideal aggregate results: fallacy of composition, connections between labour and output markets, and impact of money, banks, and expectations. The fundamental macroeconomic question is introduced: “If left alone by government, do the price mechanisms of market economies adjust quickly to maintain steady growth in living standards, full employment, and stable prices?” The “Yes” answer is tied to Say’s Law, the “No” answer to Keynes. We connect “Yes” answers to a government hands-off position and the political right; “No” to a government hands-on position and the political left. We sketch macroeconomic performance outcomes — GDP, unemployment, inflation — which affect students’ lives. We introduce macroeconomic players: consumers, businesses, government, the banking system, and the rest of the world (R.O.W.). Chapter 2 Up Around the Circular Flow: GDP, Economic Growth, and Business Cycles Distinguishes nominal, real, and potential GDP, as well as limitations of GDP as a measure of well-being. In explaining potential GDP, there is an overview of sources of economic growth, emphasizing creative destruction and how increases in the quantity and quality of inputs expand the circular flow and improve productivity. We define phases of business cycles and explain output gaps and connections to unemployment and inflation. The choices of all macroeconomic players are combined to create the circular flow diagram—the analytical core of the book—together with the “mantra” C ⫹ I ⫹ G ⫹ X ⫺ IM ⫽ Y. Chapter 3 Costs of (Not) Working and Living: Unemployment and Inflation Details measurements of unemployment and inflation. We begin with unemployment rates, issues of involuntary part-time and discouraged workers, and differentiate “healthy” unemployment (frictional, structural) from “unhealthy” unemployment (cyclical). We define the natural rate, connecting all forms of unemployment to recessionary and inflationary gaps. We explain inflation rates using the Consumer Price Index and identify limitations of inflation measurements. We differentiate the core inflation rate, nominal, and realized real interest rates and explain inflation problems for fixed income streams, investors, and expectations. We present the quantity theory of money to help explain inflation. After illustrating the Phillips Curve, the final section connects unemployment to inflation and distinguishes demand-pull from cost-push inflations. Long-run Phillips Curve complications are postponed until Chapter 7. xxiv PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxv Chapter 4 Skating to Where the Puck is Going: Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand Develops a framework for thinking about macroeconomics. We start with macroeconomic players’ choices that determine aggregate supply; we then develop aggregate demand choices to ask if aggregate supply and aggregate demand match. Matches yield steady growth, full employment, and stable prices; mismatches may yield business cycles, unemployment, and inflation. Without demand and supply curves, we use circular flow diagrams to explain the framework. Paralleling micro distinctions between quantity supplied and supply, aggregate supply choices are divided into supply plans with existing inputs (law of aggregate supply), supply plans to increase inputs (increase in aggregate supply), and supply shocks. The question is: will supply plans create their own demand? Again using circular flow diagrams, we differentiate the law of aggregate demand, changes in aggregate demand, and demand shocks. We use the fallacy of composition to explain the inverse relation between the price level and aggregate quantity demanded as different from micro explanations, focusing on substitution of foreign for domestic products. Equilibrium matches between aggregate supply and aggregate demand are tied to Say’s Law (“Yes—markets quickly self-adjust, so hands-off ”) both for existing inputs and for growth over time with increasing inputs. We introduce the banking system and loanable funds market to “rescue” Say’s Law when saving is possible. Disequilibrium mismatches between aggregate supply and aggregate demand are tied to Keynes (“No—markets fail to quickly adjust, so hands-on”) and we explain short-run consequences of positive/negative aggregate supply and demand shocks for output gaps, unemployment, and inflation. The final section differentiates “Yes” and “No” explanations of origins of shocks, role of expectations, price adjustments, and operation of the loanable funds market. PART 2 The Price of Money Chapter 5 Money is for Lunatics: Demanders and Suppliers of Money Emphasizes acceptability as key feature of money, and explains functions of money as medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Motivated by Keynes’s question of why hold assets as money, which pays no interest, we develop the demand for money in the context of the asset choice of holding money (for liquidity) or bonds (for interest). We identify factors changing the demand for money: real GDP and average prices. We differentiate the relative de-emphasis on the store-of-value function of money by the “Yes” camp — when Say’s Law holds and loanable funds markets clear, bonds are a relatively safe investment. For the “No” camp, with Keynes’s business cycles and fundamental uncertainty, money is more appealing as a store of value. The supply of money story begins with four forms of money, the definition of M1, and roles of the Bank of Canada and chartered banks in creating money through fractional reserve banking. We emphasize banking tradeoffs between profits and prudence and explain bank runs. We explain the interest rate as the price of money in terms of connected money and bond markets. The inverse relation between bond prices and interest rates has centre stage in explaining adjustments to equilibrium. The final section explains monetary transmission PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS xxv 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxvi mechanisms connecting interest rate changes to real GDP through aggregate demand. We differentiate camps in terms of “how much does money change the economy out of equilibrium?” The “Yes” camp answer is “not much” with loanable funds markets facilitating adjustment to equilibrium, while the “No” camp answer is “a lot” with money as a store of value adding new internal demand shocks slowing adjustment to equilibrium. Chapter 6 Trading Dollars for Dollars? Exchange Rates with the Rest of the World Explains exchange rates as a prerequisite for understanding monetary policy. After explaining the foreign exchange market, we outline derived demands for Canadian dollars to buy Canadian exports, assets, and for speculation. The supply of Canadian dollars is demand for foreign currency derived from Canadians’ demand for imports, for R.O.W. assets, and for speculation. We explain how exchange rates adjust to equilibrium and calculate reciprocal and cross exchange rates. We explain exchange rate fluctuations from interest and inflation rate differentials, GDP, and speculators’ expectations. We trace international transmission mechanisms from exchange rates to net exports, aggregate demand, and to prices, explaining advantages/disadvantages of higher and lower exchange rates. The final section explains overvalued or undervalued currencies using purchasing power parity examples and the Big Mac index. We use the law of one price to motivate purchasing power parity and rate of return parity, and differentiate floating and fixed exchange rates. PART 3 Macroeconomic Policy for Citizens— Hands-Off or Hands-On? Chapter 7 Steering Blindly? Monetary Policy and the Bank of Canada Portrays challenges of monetary policy using the metaphor of driving down mountain roads with 30-second delays in pressing the accelerator and brake. After explaining origin and objectives of the Bank of Canada, we explain open bond market operations for changing the overnight rate and other short-term interest rates. We then use domestic and international transmission mechanisms from Chapters 5 and 6 to illustrate the impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand, GDP, employment, and inflation, and explain how the balance sheet recession of 2008–2009 highlighted store-of-value functions of money, blocked transmission mechanisms, and was addressed through quantitative easing. We discuss Bank of Canada independence, how the original Phillips Curve relationships broke down with changing expectations, and the importance of inflation rate targeting in anchoring inflationary expectations. While highlighting the agreement on the need for a central bank, we identify differences between the “Yes” camp’s preference for hands-off monetary policy rules and “No” camp’s preference for hands-on government policy discretion to correct transmission breakdowns and to allow for government-set targets besides inflation. xxvi PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxvii Chapter 8 Spending Others’ Money: Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and National Debt Begins with use of demand-side fiscal policies to correct output gaps, working through expenditure and tax multipliers based on injections and leakages in the circular flow. We then review supply-side policies to promote growth by stimulating savings and capital investment, encouraging R&D and improving education and training. While both camps largely agree on supply-side policies, differences exist on savings policies. The “Yes” camp emphasizes long-run benefits of growth; “No” camp worries about short-run consequences of decreased aggregate demand. We also explain supply-side incentive effects, reviewing supply-sider arguments politicians make that tax cuts increase tax revenues. For government budgets, we document revenues and expenditures and explain deficits and surpluses, distinguishing cyclical from structural. We trace how automatic stabilizers have moderated business cycles and automatically generate cyclical deficits and surpluses, and the destabilizing risk of forcing always-balanced government budgets. We suggest balancing the budget over the cycle to avoid structural deficits. The section on national debt distinguishes flows (deficits) from stocks (debt) and documents Canada’s national debt as a percentage of GDP. We explore five common arguments about national debt, distinguishing myths and genuine problems: will Canada go bankrupt?; burden for future generations; debt is always bad; interest payments creating self-perpetuating debt; crowding out and crowding in. The final section differentiates economic and political statements about deficits and debt as positive or normative to help students make informed choices as citizens about hands-off and hands-on roles for government fiscal policy. Chapter 9 Are Sweatshops All Bad? Globalization and Trade Policy Begins with a basic choice—producing for yourself or specializing and trading. A simple example—reproduced from microeconomics Chapter 1—uses tables of numbers that are implicit production possibility frontiers, illustrating gains from trade and comparative advantage. We define terms of trade and emphasize the role of creative destruction in creating winners, losers, and opponents to trade. Winners are consumers and export industries; losers are businesses and workers in import-competing industries. We explain protectionism — tariffs, quotas, domestic subsidies — by the unequal distribution of gains and losses producing political pressure to protect those who lose from trade. We review protectionist arguments—saving Canadian jobs; competing with cheap foreign labour; national security and cultural identity — and risks of trade wars. The section on economic globalization begins with anti-globalization protests against trade, the World Bank and IMF, and explains the “Yes” camp’s hands-off “free market” conditions on assistance to developing countries during the 1990s. We explain forces driving globalization and present a history of sweatshops and trade. We propose the opportunity-cost question: are workers’ lives better off, or worse off, compared to a situation without globalization, trade, and the factory jobs that follow? We use Stiglitz’s views for hands-on arguments, partially supporting protesters, for a limited role for government to maintain a social safety net for those left behind by trade and markets. We present The Economist’s criticisms of international trade negotiations — PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS xxvii 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxviii problems for developing countries are not caused by trade, but by protectionist policies in developed countries. A power struggle over tariffs and subsidies between rich and poor countries affects terms of trade and how gains are divided. We outline hands-off and hands-on positions on government in global markets, to enable students—as citizens of Canada and the world—to reach an informed position on globalization. Adapting This Book to Your Course As you can see from this detailed overview, the chapters in this book can quite easily be mapped onto your current course. Chapters 1 to 3 introduce the fundamental macroeconomic question and explain GDP, economic growth, business cycles, unemployment, and inflation. These are the key outcomes for judging how well the economy performs. Chapter 4 presents the aggregate supply and aggregate demand framework. Chapters 5 and 6 examine money, bond, and foreign exchange markets. And Chapters 7 to 9 cover monetary policy, fiscal policy, and international trade and trade policy. If you are teaching a one-semester macro course without micro prerequisites, you will first want to cover the four appendices, which are the opening chapters from Economics for Life: Smart Choices for You. The macro chapters are written to flow from the end of those microeconomics chapters, or from any other introductory microeconomics textbook. The unique nature of this textbook helps you make the course material more relevant to your students and thus provides a solid basis for a more positive classroom experience. In addition, the style of the textbook, its features, and its learning aids are designed to meet the skill levels, interests, and needs of a wide range of students who are not training to be economists but who—as consumers, as businesspeople, and as citizens — will benefit from learning to think like an economist. All these features enable students to learn economics in a way that will stay with them—even five years after leaving your classroom. xxviii PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxix Supplements This textbook is supported by many materials designed to enhance learning and understanding for students and to make the course exciting and rewarding for instructors. The following support materials are available for instructors. Instructor’s Resource CD-ROM The Instructor’s Resource CD-ROM contains the Instructor’s Manual, PowerPoint® Presentations, and Pearson TestGen. Instructor’s Manual: The manual includes teaching notes and suggestions for classroom discussion. PowerPoint Presentations: PowerPoint¨ presentations are available for each chapter of the book. The presentations integrate key concepts and visuals from the text and have been designed to reflect and embody the unique philosophy behind and structure of the textbook. Pearson TestGen: This computerized test item file enables instructors to view and edit existing test questions, add questions, generate tests, and print tests in a variety of formats. Powerful search and sort functions make it easy to locate questions and arrange them in any order. TestGen also enables instructors to administer tests on a local area network, have the tests graded electronically, and have the results prepared in electronic or printed reports. These questions are also available in MyTest, which is available through MyEconLab at www.myeconlab.com. MyEconLab Pearson Canada’s online resource, MyEconLab, offers instructors and students all of their resources in one place, written and designed to accompany this text. MyEconLab creates a perfect pedagogical loop that provides not only textspecific assessment and practice problems, but also tutorial support to make sure students learn from their mistakes. MyEconLab is available to instructors by going to www.myeconlab.com and following the instructions. Students access MyEconLab with an access code that is available with the purchase of a new text. At the core of MyEconLab are the following features: Auto-Graded Tests and Assignments: MyEconLab comes with two preloaded Sample Tests for each chapter. Students can use these tests for selfassessment and obtain immediate feedback. Instructors can assign the Sample Tests or use them along with Test Bank questions or their own exercises to create tests or quizzes. PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS xxix 00-Cohen-Macro-Prelims-P4 6/22/10 10:39 AM Page xxx Study Plan: A Study Plan is generated from each student’s results on Sample Tests and instructor assignments. Students can clearly see which topics they have mastered and, more importantly, which they need to work on. Unlimited Practice: Many Study Plan and instructor-assigned exercises contain algorithmically generated values to ensure that students get as much practice as they need. Every problem links students to learning resources that further reinforce concepts they need to master. Learning Resources: Each practice problem contains a link to the eText page that discusses the concept being applied. Students also have access to guided solutions, flashcards, Student PowerPoints and answers to Refresh Questions. Economics in the News: Each Economics in the News article is accompanied by additional links, discussion questions, and a reference to relevant textbook chapters. Technology Specialists Pearson’s Technology Specialists work with faculty and campus course designers to ensure that Pearson technology products, assessment tools, and online course materials are tailored to meet your specific needs. This highly qualified team is dedicated to helping schools take full advantage of a wide range of educational resources by assisting in the integration of a variety of instructional materials and media formats. Your local Pearson Education sales representative can provide you with more details about this service program. CourseSmart CourseSmart is a new way for instructors and students to access textbooks online anytime from anywhere. With thousands of titles across hundreds of courses, CourseSmart helps instructors choose the best textbook for their class and give their students a new option for buying the assigned textbook as a lower cost eTextbook. For more information, visit www.coursesmart.com. xxx PREFACE TO INSTRUCTORS