Download It Can Happen Here: Assessing the Risk of Genocide in the U.S.

 P.O. Box 2022 ·∙ Grand Central Station ·∙ New York, NY 10163 ·∙ USA Phone: +1 212 599-­‐2542 Fax: +1 212 599-­‐1332 Email: [email protected] It Can Happen Here:
Assessing the Risk of Genocide in the US (02/24/17)
James E. Waller, Cohen Professor of Holocaust and Genocide Studies
Keene State College (NH-US)
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Executive Summary
signs and assess the degree of risk for
Could a long, slow attrition of
genocide in the US.
civil and human rights bring our country
It would be the epitome of
again to the point where genocide – at
American exceptionalism to believe that
home or abroad – stands justified as
we, alone among nations in the world,
sound political, social, national, and
are immune to genocide. Every country
economic strategy?
If so, could we
in the world, including the US, is at risk
recognize the warning signs in that
of genocide. Countries simply differ in
process and have the collective resolve
their degree of risk. The US, over its
to resist and mitigate them?
history, certainly has developed some
The
purpose of this paper is to offer a sober
important
foundations,
structures,
real-time analysis of those warning
policies, and a unique brand of checks
and balances (both within government
a Latin American, African, or Eastern
as well as civil society) that mitigate
European country, the risk of warning
much of the risk of genocide. Through
would be clear and alarms would be
the norm of the responsibility to protect,
raised by a range of governmental and
we have affirmed a global commitment
non-governmental actors. We cannot let
to protect our population from genocide
the false comfort of believing it cannot
and other mass atrocity crimes.
happen here stop us from raising those
We
would be naïve, though, to believe that
same alarms for our country.
we have, or could ever have, mitigated
Genocide is an extremely rare
all the risk of genocide. It would be a
event.
But, while it does not happen
disingenuous and dangerous denial of
often, it does happen.
our history to believe that our past,
happens, it is the culmination of a long
present, or future somehow shelters us
process that did not appear without
from the risk of genocide.
warning. Rather, there were signs and
And, when it
symptoms along a predictable, but not
Using a comprehensive and data-
inexorable, path.
Those signs and
driven set of risk factors that help us
symptoms – the risk factors discussed in
understand the preconditions for a
this paper – are what we must attend to
genocidal society, this paper focuses on
if we have any hopes of preventing
the proximate and immediate pressure
genocide at home or abroad.
of risk factors related to governance and
light,
social fragmentation as impacted by,
suggestions for preventive measures
and reflected in, the emergence of a new
that can be proactively applied – by
presidential administration in the US.
policymakers, academics, lawyers, civil
This paper argues that recent political
society (including the media, social
transitions in governance, combined
movements,
with an escalation in long-term social
communities), and individual citizens –
fragmentation trends, have increased
to
our risk for genocide in the US. Were
governance and social fragmentation
we noticing these same signs of poor
factors.
governance and social fragmentation in
the
mitigate
paper
concludes
NGOs,
the
In that
and
risks
with
diaspora
posted
by
Introduction
Can Lewis’ novel become reality?
In 1935, American author Sinclair
Can it happen here?
And could it
Lewis wrote a semi-satirical political
happen to the degree that a long, slow
novel, It Can’t Happen Here, which
attrition of civil and human rights brings
follows
a
our country again to the point where
presidential
genocide – at home or abroad – stands
the
charismatic
improbable
populist
rise
of
candidate, Berzelius (“Buzz”) Windrip.
justified
as
sound
political,
social,
As essayist Beverly Gage describes:
national, and economic strategy? If so,
“Windrip sells himself as the champion
could we recognize the warning signs in
of ‘Forgotten Men,’ determined to bring
that process and have the collective
dignity and prosperity back to America’s
resolve to resist and mitigate them? The
white working class. Windrip loves big,
purpose of this paper is to offer a sober
passionate rallies and rails against the
real-time analysis of those warning
‘lies’ of the mainstream press. His
signs and assess the degree of risk for
supporters
genocide in the US.
embrace
this
message,
against
the
‘highbrow
warning signs, or risk factors, are social
intellectuality’ of editors and professors
inequities that have been decades in the
and
Windrip’s
making and show signs of exacerbation
encouragement, they also take out their
in the current social and political
frustrations on blacks and Jews.”i After
climate. Others are governance issues
his election as president, Windrip takes
more closely tied to the ascendancy of
complete control of the government and
Donald Trump to the White House.
imposes totalitarian rule. Selling more
Together, the long-term social trends
than 300,000 copies in its 1935 release,
and
Lewis’ book has returned to the 2017
transitions can give us a clear picture of
bestseller lists “as an analogy for the Age
the potential for genocide in the US,
of Trump” and a warning about the
either at home or abroad.
lashing
out
policy
elites.
With
slippery erosion of democracy into
fascism,
dictatorship,
authoritarianism.ii
and
the
more
Some of these
immediate
political
The paper begins with a review of
definitions and historical background,
proceeds to a data-driven analysis of
risk factors and where the US finds itself
at the beginning of 2017, and concludes
While the word “genocide” was
with a discussion of how we might best
not coined until its 1944 appearance in
respond to these risks.
Raphael Lemkin’s Axis Rule in Occupied
Europe, its practice, as Jean-Paul Sartre
Definitions and Historical
has written, “is as old as humanity.”iii It
Background
is clear that genocide cannot be confined
The United Nations Convention
to one culture, place, or time in modern
on the Prevention and Punishment of
history.
the Crime of Genocide (commonly
definitions estimates that at least 60
known as the Genocide Convention) was
million men, women, and children were
adopted at the Palais de Chaillot in Paris
victims of genocide and mass killing in
on December 9, 1948.
The Genocide
the past century alone.iv On the upper
Convention includes 19 concise articles.
end, political scientist Rudolph Rummel
It is Article II, however, that is the
argues that close to 170 million civilians
central
were done to death in the twentieth
defining
article
of
the
Even the most restrictive of
Convention: “In the present Convention,
century.v
genocide means any of the following acts
decades of the twenty-first century have
committed with intent to destroy, in
brought little light to the darkness. In
whole or in part, a national, ethnical,
recent
racial or religious group, as such: (a)
themselves under attack in Chechnya,
killing members of the group, (b)
the Democratic Republic of Congo,
causing serious bodily or mental harm
Kenya,
to
(c)
Kyrgyzstan, Bahrain, Somalia, Yemen,
deliberately inflicting on the group
Afghanistan, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, China,
conditions of life calculated to bring
the Philippines, Colombia, Macedonia,
about its physical destruction in whole
Pakistan, Libya, North Korea, Ukraine,
or in part, (d) imposing measures
Tajikistan, and an increasingly wide
intended to prevent births within the
swath territory controlled by the Islamic
group,
State of Iraq and the Levant (also known
members
or
(e)
of
the
forcibly
group,
transferring
children of the group to another group.”
Unfortunately,
years,
civilians
Ethiopia,
the
have
Cote
first
found
d’Ivoire,
as ISIS). Of particular and immediate
concern are escalating mass atrocity
situations
Burma,
in
South
Syria,
the
Sudan,
Sudan,
that the lands were “unoccupied” if
Central
African
Christians were not present. After the
Republic, and Burundi.
founding of America, federal and state
It would be the epitome of
policies of civilization, Americanization,
American exceptionalism to believe that
and cultural assimilation were conjoined
we, alone among nations in the world,
with policies of forced removal and
are immune to genocide. Every country
physical
in the world, including the US, is at risk
peoples who refused to give up their
of genocide. Countries simply differ in
land or their way of life.
their degree of risk.
Thomas
As an analogy,
destruction
Jefferson
of
indigenous
In 1807,
warned
of
the
every person in the world is at risk of
impending devastation: " ...if ever we are
heart disease, we just each differ, at
constrained to lift the hatchet against
various times in our life, in the degree of
any tribe we will never lay it down til
risk.
Similarly, the lives of countries
that tribe is exterminated, or driven
vary in their degree of risk for genocide
beyond the Mississippi...in war they will
over time. This paper offers a snapshot
kill some of us; but we will destroy all of
of where we are in the life of the US, in
them.”vii Indeed, the extermination of
early
for
physical life – article (a) in the Genocide
committing genocide, either as domestic
Convention – was so pervasive that, by
or foreign policy, in response to a
1891,
perceived threat.
suppressed and destroyed to the point
2017,
The
in
terms
possibility
of
of
risk
the
US
descending such a path is certainly not
that
Native
they
Americans
no
longer
had
been
mattered
in
American policy and practice.viii
without precedent, despite the deceit,
Native
American
and conceit, often fostered by our
languages,
national narratives. In truth, we are a
obliterated. Scholars and activists have
country, as Martin Luther King Jr.
applied article (e) of the Genocide
asserted over half a century ago, “born
Convention
in
children of the group to another group”)
genocide.”vi
The
Doctrine
of
US
and
traditions,
cultures
(“forcibly
assimilationist
also
were
transferring
Discovery legitimized the colonization of
to
policies
and
lands outside Europe on the premise
practices of forced transferal of Native
Americans
to
residential
boarding
Face of Genocide.”
Two pages later,
schools. More than 100,000 Native
there is a reproduction of Articles II and
Americans were forcibly transferred to
III of the Genocide Convention.
such schools, designed to “kill the
petitioners – including such notables as
Indian, and save the man.” There were
W.E.B. Du Bois, William Patterson, and
still 60,000 Native children enrolled in
Paul Robeson – argued “that the
boarding schools as their era was
oppressed Negro citizens of the United
coming to a close in 1973.ix
In these
States, segregated, discriminated against
schools, tribal identities were erased and
and long the target of violence, suffer
“yielded a trauma of shame, fear, and
from genocide as the result of the
anger that has passed from generation
consistent, conscious, unified policies of
to generation fueling the alcohol and
every branch of government.”xii
drug abuse and domestic violence that
petition “scrupulously kept within the
continues to plague Indian country.”x
purview of the Convention on the
The
The
To the genocide of an indigenous
Prevention and Punishment of the
population, US history also adds the
Crime of Genocide” with voluminous
importation and enslavement of an
documentation of atrocities, beginning
African population, the legacy of which
in 1945, tied specifically to Articles II
still
African-American
and III of the Convention itself.xiii In the
community to such a degree that victims
words of their closing summary: “Thus it
find an appropriate framing in the term
was easy for your petitioners to offer
“genocide.”
In 1951, the Civil Rights
abundant proof of the crime.
It is
Congress published a 238-page petition
everywhere in American life.”
The
titled We Charge Genocide: The Crime
petition concludes by asking “that the
of Government Against the Negro
General Assembly of the United Nations
People.xi The petition opens, following
find and declare by resolution that the
the title page, with an undated full-page
Government of the United States is
photograph of the lynching of “two
guilty of the crime of Genocide against
young
Columbus,
the Negro People of the United States
Mississippi – Dooley Morton and Bret
and that it further demand that the
Moore. The photograph is titled “The
government of the United States stop
scars
the
Negro
men”
in
and prevent the crime of genocide.”xiv
of US activities in Vietnam. Echoing the
Given the strength of US influence
arguments in We Charge Genocide,
(particularly in the person of Eleanor
Sartre even suggested that American
Roosevelt, first chairperson of the UN
policymakers tolerated atrocities against
Human
the
Rights
Commission,
who
Vietnamese
similar
tolerated
against
dismissed the petition as “ridiculous”),
practices
the General Assembly of the UN never
American blacks.xvii
gave
Bertrand Russell’s International War
serious
consideration
to
its
adoption.xv
were
because
In late 1967,
Crimes Tribunal, of which Sartre was
Today, however, the petition –
executive
president,
unanimously
and its use of the term “genocide” – still
declared the US guilty of the crime of
resonates. “We Charge Genocide” is the
genocide in Vietnam. More recently, in
name of a grassroots, intergenerational
2009, The International Initiative to
effort
Prosecute US Genocide in Iraq filed
to
center
the
voices
and
experiences of the young people most
legal
targeted by police violence in Chicago,
presidents,
Illinois.
The organization, whose title
ministers, for the intended destruction
pays intentional homage to the petition,
of Iraq from 1990 to the present.xviii
aims to confront the targeted repression,
While
harassment,
brutality
unsuccessful, they are illustrative of the
disproportionately faced by low-income
ways in which some parts of the world
people and young people of color.
view the destructive neo-colonialism of
and
The racial charges of genocide
challenges
those
against
and
four
legal
four
UK
challenges
US
prime
were
some aspects of US foreign policy.
against the US also have appeared in
So, the historical answer to “Can
foreign policy discussions. In 1967, for
it happen here?” is a resounding “It has
instance,
happened here and, therefore, yes, it can
Jean-Paul
Sartre,
in
his
famous essay, “On Genocide,” argued
happen here again.”
It would be a
that US actions in Vietnam were directly
disingenuous and dangerous denial of
culpable in terms of Article II of the
our history to believe that our past,
Genocide Convention.xvi
For Sartre,
present, or future somehow shelters us
genocidal intent was implicit in the facts
from the risk of committing genocide –
society.
at home or abroad – to advance our
genocidal
This
empirical
political, social, national, or economic
research is buttressed by my fieldwork
interests.
in conflict and post-conflict settings,
including Germany, Israel, Northern
Risk Assessment
Ireland, the former Yugoslavia, Rwanda,
In 2016, I published a book,
Confronting
Responsibility
Evil:
to
Engaging
Prevent
Our
Uganda, Tanzania, Argentina, Chile,
Colombia, and Guatemala.
Genocide
For ease of illustration, I have
(Oxford University Press), in which I
grouped these risk factors into four
reviewed the most commonly cited risk
broad categories – governance, conflict
factors from the most widely utilized
history, economic conditions, and social
early warning systems, with a focus on
fragmentation (see Table 1). We should
those factors especially relevant for
note, however, that many of these risk
assessing countries’ risks for onsets of
factors
mass violence, some cases of which
intersecting issues, not easily confined
could evolve into genocide.xix Lists of
to one discrete category.
risk factors are constantly evolving in
effects
empirical rigor and complexity.
The
corruption, for instance, have deep and
United Nation’s Framework of Analysis
interrelated governance, economic, and
for Atrocity Crimes, for instance, takes a
social impacts. Moreover, no single risk
multi-layered approach of outlining risk
factor should be taken as causal or, even,
factors common to all atrocity crimes as
predominant
well as risk factors specific to each of the
importance; rather, they should be
atrocity crimes of genocide, war crimes,
contextually
and crimes against humanity.
My
conjunction with the presence of other
review, mined from a wide range of
risk factors – as somehow associated
multidisciplinary research, combines the
with
strengths of various systems to give us a
genocide.
comprehensive and data-driven list of
twenty
risk
factors
that
help
us
understand the preconditions for a
are
of
cross-cutting
state
in
and
their
the
The erosive
public
understood
increasing
and
sector
contributing
–
probability
in
of
Table 1
Categories of Risk Factors for Violent or Genocidal Conflict
Governance
Regime Type
State Legitimacy Deficit
Weakness of State Structures
Identity-Based Polar Factionalism
Systematic State-Led Discrimination
Conflict History
History of Identity-Related Tension
Prior Genocides or Politicides
Past Cultural Trauma
Legacy of Vengeance or Group Grievance
Record of Serious Violations of International Human Rights and Laws
Economic Conditions
Low Level of Economic Development
Economic Discrimination
Lack of Macroeconomic Stability
Economic Deterioration
Growth of Informal Economies and Black Markets
Social Fragmentation
Identity-Based Social Divisions
Demographic Pressures
Unequal Access to Basic Goods and Services
Gender Inequalities
Political Instability
There are certainly important risk issues to
In terms of regime type, a diverse set
be considered related to the ways in which
of research suggests that states with a lower
US conflict history is remembered, taught,
degree of democratization are at greater
processed and understood (particularly our
risk for the onset of violent conflict or
national amnesia related to genocides we
genocide. Why? Generally, it stems from
have committed and enabled around the
the fact that states with a lower degree of
globe)
and
economic
conditions
democratization have fewer institutional
group-based
economic
constraints on executive power and state
discrimination), but these risk factors are
security, effectively leaving power holders
born from longer-term and slower moving
unaccountable for their decision-making,
structures,
society-wide
policies and behaviors. As genocide scholar
conditions, and processes that put states at
Barbara Harff argues: “Democratic and
risk for genocide. Of focus in this paper are
quasi-democratic regimes have institutional
the
checks on executive power that constrain
(particularly
measures,
more
pressure
proximate
risk
elites from carrying out deadly attacks on
governance and social fragmentation as
citizens…the democratic norms of most
impacted
the
contemporary societies favor the protection
presidential
of minority rights and the inclusion of
by,
and
of
a
factors
immediate
to
emergence
of
and
related
reflected
new
in,
administration in the US.
Governance.
political opponents.”xxi In regimes with a
Governance refers,
lower
degree
of
democratization,
the
broadly, to the ways in which authority in a
institutional constraints on power holders
country is exercised. How are governments
are compromised by the lack of an
selected, monitored, and replaced? What is
independent and impartial judiciary, media,
the capacity of the government to develop
or police. National civil society, as well as
and implement sound policies?
To what
international civil society, is muzzled and
degree do the citizens respect the state and
there is limited cooperation of the regime
the institutions that govern them?xx Nearly
with international and regional human
all early warning systems include various
rights mechanisms.xxii
traits of governance as risk factors for
freedom of speech, expression, association,
genocide.
or assembly for the country’s citizens lead
Restrictions on
to a loss of political space and voice for
journalists
opposition.
hostility.”xxv
by
name
with
unrelenting
After Trump’s January 11,
Amid a global democratic recession,
2017 attacks on CNN’s Jim Acosta, saying
a pattern of incidents related to the
his organization was “terrible” and “fake
intelligence
and
news,” Trump drew praise from Turkish
judiciary raise concern about the degree of
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for putting
democratization in the US.
the reporter “in his place.”
community,
media,
Even before
Since an
assuming office, president-elect Trump
attempted coup against him last July,
called into question the professionalism of
Erdogan has jailed at least 144 journalists
the
over
and closed more than 160 media outlets.xxvi
unsubstantiated claims that he was caught
While in office, the Trump administration
in a compromising position in Russia. "I
has continued to attack the independent
think it was disgraceful, disgraceful that the
media as “dishonest” and peddlers of “fake
intelligence
news.”
US
intelligence
community
agencies
allowed
any
In his first press conference as
information that turned out to be so false
president, it was widely reported that
and fake out. I think it's a disgrace, and I
Trump “filled the room with paid staffers
say that ... that's something that Nazi
who clapped and cheered as he blasted
Germany would have done and did do,"
members
Trump told a news conference in New
disconcertingly, in an interview with the
York.xxiii
Christian Broadcasting Network, Trump
of
the
media.”xxvii
Most
On inauguration day, at least six
referred to the media as “the opposition
journalists were charged with felony rioting
party.” This statement directly reinforced
after they were arrested while covering the
chief
violent anti-Trump protests in Washington
Bannon’s repeated characterizations of the
(as of this writing, charges against four have
media as “the opposition party” who should
been dropped).xxiv
“keep its mouth shut.”xxviii
The Committee to
White
House
strategist
Stephen
Protect Journalists expressed concern about
The judiciary has not escaped similar
“the sharp deterioration of press freedom in
wrath from the Trump administration. In
the US,” noting that, during his campaign,
early February 2017, Judge James Robart, a
Trump
George
had
“obstructed
major
news
organization, vilified the press and attacked
W.
Bush-appointed
judge,
temporarily blocked President Trump’s
executive order to ban citizens of seven
independence and impartiality. Columnist
predominately Muslim countries – Iraq,
Dean Obeidallah sees the danger posed by
Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and
such compromise: “An independent federal
Yemen – from entering the US for 90 days,
judiciary is our last, best hope at preventing
all refugees for 120 days, and indefinitely
Trump from violating the US Constitution
stopping the flow of refugees from Syria.
and illegally grabbing power. And Trump
The following day, in yet another early
has to understand that, hence his attempt to
morning tweet, President Trump attacked
undermine it. The President truly appears
the “so-called judge” whose decision, in
to be leading a master class in transforming
Trump’s mind, “takes law-enforcement
the United States into a dictatorship.”xxix
away from our country, is ridiculous and
Such compromises to the degree of
will be overturned!” The following week, a
democratization in the US lead to a second
federal appeals court declined to block
risk factor – state legitimacy deficit. This
Robart’s ruling that suspended the ban.
risk factor reflects to the degree to which
While Trump’s immediate Twitter reaction
the state is perceived by its citizens to be a
was strong – “SEE YOU IN COURT, THE
legitimate actor representative of the people
SECURITY OF OUR NATION IS AT
as a whole.
STAKE!” – as of this writing, it appears that
constitution, the national authorities, and
Trump has decided not to challenge the
representatives of the government?
ruling in the Supreme Court but, rather, will
transparent and accountable are state
reintroduce a reworked executive order. In
institutions and processes?
the
the
strong oversight mechanisms for the state?
foundation of the judiciary with tweets
Is the state perceived as criminal? Does the
declaring “our legal system is broken” and
state have the confidence of its people?
“dangerous.”
These are questions of state legitimacy and
meantime,
At
issue
he
still
is
chips
the
at
threat
to
democratization, and the closing of civic
space, posed by such statements.
Is there respect for the
How
Are there
any perceived deficit in that legitimacy can
leave a governance system at risk.
These
Christopher Browning, a leading
attacks, coming from the highest office in
Holocaust scholar, argues that the risk we
the land, delegitimize the judiciary and, by
did not see coming in Trump’s rise to power
politicizing it, compromise its degree of
was the tyranny of the minority.
As he
writes:
on
evidence of this specific event happening
majority rule tempered by minority rights. I
nor is there any known evidence for the
had always assumed that the major threat
more general Trump accusation that 3-5
to our democracy, if one arrived, would
million illegal immigrants voted in the
come through a ‘tyranny of the majority’
presidential election.
that
“Our
cast
democracy
Reflecting many of these concerns
constitutional protections of the minority.
about a state legitimacy deficit, the 2016
What we have seen between 2010 and 2016,
edition of the annual Democracy Index
however, is not the emergence of a tyranny
from
of
downgraded the US from a “full democracy”
majority,
irreversible
or
based
the
the
aside
is
subverted
but
capture
an
of
increasingly
our
elected
the
Economist
Intelligence
Unit
to a “flawed democracy,” citing the further
institutions by a focused and uninhibited
erosion
minority.”xxx
institutions as a reason for the change.
Indeed,
as
reflected
in
Hillary
of
trust
in
American
public
“Trust in political institutions is an essential
Clinton’s substantial victory in the popular
component
vote (nearly 3 million votes), rule through
democracies,” it stated, “yet surveys by Pew,
electoral majority is not the reality of the
Gallup and other polling agencies have
current US political climate.
confirmed
And that
of
that
public
well-functioning
confidence
in
causes many in our country to question
government has slumped to historic lows in
whether the Trump administration is a
the U.S.”xxxii While the report indicated that
legitimate actor representative of the people
these were long-term trends and not
as a whole. In response, Trump, and his
attributable to Donald Trump, it was
administration, have insisted on citing
equally clear in describing how he has
“massive voter fraud” as the reason for his
benefitted from them. Upon entering office,
loss in the popular vote.
As recently as
Americans were less confident in Trump’s
February 12, 2017, Stephen Miller, a White
abilities to perform presidential duties than
House senior policy advisor, continued to
they were in his predecessors and his first
assert that thousands of Massachusetts
month in office has only deepened the lack
residents were bussed into New Hampshire,
of public confidence, respect, and trust in
my home state, to vote illegally in the
the US government.xxxiii
presidential election.xxxi There is no known
within
The checks related to genocide risk
the
as well as hundreds of thousands more in
institutions funded by the government, are
cities across the US. Just over a week later,
also being compromised to a degree that
spontaneous
threatens state legitimacy. The Atrocities
Trump’s Muslim ban erupted at airports
Prevention Board (APB), a mechanism that
around the country. On February 10, the
involves senior officials from 10 agencies
newly-minted education secretary, Betsy
and offices across government, was created
DeVos, was even temporarily blocked from
to support more attentive monitoring and
entering a DC middle school by a small
response to potential atrocity risks. While
group of protestors.
focused almost exclusively on foreign risks,
Trump
its presence at least kept the notion of risk
protests as confirmation of his apocalyptic
and
State
vision of the current state of the country
APB’s
which he feels tasked to save, researchers
dissolution under the Trump White House
Monty Marshall and Benjamin Cole remind
is a near-certainty.
The US Institute of
us: “Mass protest should not be viewed as
Peace and the US Holocaust Memorial
an exercise in democracy, but, rather, as a
Museum, both heavily dependent on federal
signal that the political process, whether
funding, find their voices of critique or
democratic or autocratic, is failing to
resistance to the US government largely
adequately
conceded to the necessity of continued
discontent
funding. So, their alerts likely will continue
address an important and valued issue in
to focus on risks abroad rather than at
public policy.”xxxiv
Department’s
atrocities
or
hundreds of thousands of protestors to DC
within
mass
government,
on
agenda.
the
The
home.
massive
may
protests
While President
perversely
recognize
and
against
welcome
the
dissent
such
levels
and
of
properly
Weakness of state structures ask to
For states that have a legitimacy
what degree the state can provide basic
deficit, we often see the manifestation in
public services and answer people’s needs?
rallies,
How
peaceful
demonstrations,
mass
effective
protests against state authority or policies,
hospitals,
uprisings, or even riots.
courts
March
of
January
counterinauguration
of
The Women’s
21,
sorts,
2017,
a
brought
are
schools,
systems,
state
police
structures
–
departments,
sanitation,
public
transportation, etc.? Does the state enforce
contracts and property rights?
To what
degree does the state follow the rule of law?
detentions, voter intimidation, torture, and
Can the state protect its citizens or do crime
forced relocation or exile – all of which
and violence threaten to overrun the state?
involve denial of due process consistent
All these indicate the relative strength or
with international norms and practices.
weakness of state structures and, as state
Most
notable
in
regard
to
a
structures weaken, the risk of violent or
compromise in the rule of law has been
genocidal conflict increases.
President Trump’s ill-fated executive order
The degree to which the state follows
temporarily banning refugees from seven
the rule of law is a clear indicator of the
predominately Muslim countries.
relative strength or weakness of its state
packaged to offer a veneer of religious
structures. While often used, the “rule of
neutrality by not mentioning any religious
law” is a difficult term to define. For the
group by name, the order did, in fact, target
UN, the rule of law is understood as “…a
Muslims. In so doing, a de facto Muslim
principle
ban
of
governance
in
which
all
qualifies
as
While
unconstitutional
persons, institutions and entities, public
discrimination.
and private, including the State itself, are
Judge Robart held, was based on absolutely
accountable to laws that are publicly
no evidence that supported the security
promulgated,
and
concerns cited by Trump as the reason for
independently adjudicated, and which are
the exclusion of refugees from these specific
consistent with international human rights
countries. In blocking the entirety of the
norms and standards. It requires, as well,
ban, Robart implied that there is no
measures to ensure adherence to the
constitutional way to carry out Trump’s
principles of supremacy of law, equality
unconstitutional
before the law, accountability to the law,
Moreover,
fairness in the application of the law,
counter to international law and treaties the
separation of powers, participation in
US has ratified (for instance, the UN
decision-making, legal certainty, avoidance
Refugee
of arbitrariness and procedural and legal
International
transparency.”xxxv States in which the rule
Political Rights), “some provisions of which
of law is compromised often have rising
have been incorporated into US law and
numbers
cited as binding by the US Supreme
of
equally
political
enforced
arrests,
illegal
Moreover, the order, as
Trump’s
Convention
executive
Muslim
as
Covenant
order.
ban
well
on
runs
as
the
Civil
and
Court.”xxxvi
authoritarian
The Trump administration’s
response
to
the
In his days as a senator, Jeff Sessions
rulings,
criticized strategies that “gave terrorism
articulated by senior policy advisor Stephen
suspects the right to lawyers, the right to
Miller, is chillingly dismissive of the rule of
remain silent and the right to a speedy
law: “Our opponents, the media and the
trial.”xl It is unclear, exactly, how Sessions
whole world will soon see as we begin to
will approach prosecution of terrorism
take further actions, that the powers of the
suspects in his new role as attorney general.
President to protect our country are very
The specter raised, however, by Sessions’
substantial and will not be questioned.”xxxvii
views
on
the
treatment
of
terrorism
Administrative approval of torture
suspects continue to nurture concerns
and denial of due process are other threats
about denial of due process consistent with
to the rule of law.
international
While military and
norms
and
practices.
academic experts have been clear on the
Ultimately, as David Frum, a former
very limited intelligence benefits to be
speechwriter for President George W. Bush,
gained from torture, President Trump is
points out, “The United States may be a
under the inexplicable impression that
nation of laws, but the proper functioning of
torture does work. "We're not playing on an
the law depends upon the competence and
even field," Trump said. "I want to do
integrity of those charged with executing
everything within the bounds of what you're
it.”xli
allowed to do legally. But do I feel it works?
Elites
and
state
institutions
Absolutely, I feel it works."xxxviii To date,
fragmented among identity lines – be they
Trump’s attempts to broaden US laws to
racial, ethnic, religious, class, clan, tribal, or
allow torture, even suggesting a possible
political – often lead to a high level of
return of CIA “black site” prisons, have
contentiousness and identity-based polar
been rebutted – even by some of his Cabinet
factionalism.
picks. In the words of Republican Senator
factionalism as “polities with parochial or
John McCain: "The President can sign
ethnic-based political factions that regularly
whatever executive orders he likes. But the
compete for political influence in order to
law is the law. We are not bringing back
promote particularist agendas and favor
torture in the United States of America.”xxxix
group
Marshall and Cole define
members
common,
to
secular,
the
or
detriment
of
cross-cutting
agendas.”xlii Such factionalism can become
ranks, leaves our elected officials very
so
unlikely to deviate from their party lines.xlv
sharply
oppositional
and
uncompromising that it becomes a winner-
Columnist
Sabrina
Tavernise
take-all approach to politics with “the
laments the rise of identity-based polar
transference
negotiable
factionalism in the US: “The pattern often
material interests to emotively-charged and
goes like this: one country. Two tribes.
ultimately
symbolic
Conflicting visions for how government
issues.”xliii As Marshall and Cole conclude:
should be run. There is lots of shouting.
“Polar factionalism tends to radicalize both
Sometimes there is shooting.
anti-state and state factions and lead the
same forces are tearing at my own country.
political process toward greater levels of
Increasingly, Americans live in alternate
confrontation
of
worlds, with different laws of gravity,
intransigence, placing it at the gateway to
languages and truths. Politics is raw, more
political instability and regime change.”xliv
about who you are than what you believe.
of
potentially
non-negotiable
and
greater
depths
Identity-based polar factionalism is
fueled
by
exclusionary
and
harmful
Now those
The ground is shifting in unsettling ways.
Even democracy feels fragile.
President
ideologies, often nationalistic in intent and
Trump has brought out these contrasts, like
propagated by extremist rhetoric in politics,
colors in a photograph developing in a
education, hate radio and media.
These
darkroom.”xlvi
ideologies – rooted in the “us” and “them”
Clearly,
legitimate
and
effective
binaries of the in-group bias – are based on
governance is compromised by the rise of
the supremacy of a certain identity or on
identity-based polar factionalism and the
extremist versions of identity. While the US
political exploitation of such differences.
is rife with identity-based issues grounded
The military and judicial systems become
in race, gender, ethnicity, class, etc., it is,
more polarized and less representative of
the divisions based on political identities
the population.
that currently are most salient. We have a
activity and participative decision-making
historic rise in polar factionalism between
becomes more restricted. There is limited
Republicans and Democrats that, coupled
freedom of political expression, especially
with an increase in discipline within party
those voices proposing compromise.
Equal access to political
Finally,
systematic
state-led
communities, trust – the lifeline for
discrimination against a minority group –
effective delivery of policing and social
including
liberties,
services – is not being eroded, rather it is
restricting educational access, arbitrary
being dismantled with malice and it may
detention or imprisonment, torture as state
take generations to restore. "The President
policy, large-scale illegal round-ups of
wants to show off and it appears he has
civilians, the revocation of the right to
unleashed the Department of Homeland
citizenship, expropriation or destruction of
Security to kick-out large numbers of
property (including cultural religious and
immigrants and anyone they encounter,
sacred sites), etc. – is a governance risk
without much oversight, review or due
factor that weighs heavily as a concern for
process," said Illinois Democratic Rep. Luis
the protection of civilians. For some, such
Gutierrez. "The goal of such policies is to
systematic discrimination represents the
inject fear into immigrant communities,
foundational cornerstones of risk that can
frighten families and children, and drive
escalate into genocide.xlvii
immigrants
removal
of
civil
Indeed, the
farther
underground.
It
empirical support for systematic state-led
damages public safety and the fabric of
discrimination as a potent risk factor is
American communities while putting a
robust.
burden on local social services and the
In early February 2017, Immigration
foster-care system."xlix
and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stepped
At the UN General Assembly World
up actions to arrest targeted undocumented
Summit in September 2005 in New York –
immigrants for deportation proceedings.
the largest-ever gathering of world leaders
While similar actions were taken under the
– the US joined more than 150 heads of
Obama
state and government in unanimously
administration,
ICE’s
recent
roundups seem to have indiscriminately
adopting
targeted a much wider scope of individuals.
“responsibility
Sanctuary
called
referred to as R2P). In so doing, the US
“hotbeds of criminal activity” by Trump
affirmed that “each individual State has the
(despite data saying the opposite), feel
responsibility to protect its populations
particularly
these
from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing
targeted
and crimes against humanity.” Moreover,
dragnets.xlviii
cities,
stereotypically
singled
In
out
these
by
a
concept
to
known
protect”
as
the
(commonly
the document continued, “the international
community, and massive corruption and
community, through the United Nations,
civil conflict at the state level.”lii
also has the responsibility . . . to help to
social cohesion can unite a people and
protect populations” from those same mass
strengthen a society, social fragmentation
atrocities.
state-led
splinters a people, reduces the resiliency of
discrimination against minority groups flies
a society, and places it at increased risk for
in the face of that state responsibility and
violent or genocidal conflict.
further
Systematic
l
erodes
US
leadership
in
the
Where
Identity-based social divisions –
international community to help protect
particularly
other populations from mass atrocities. So,
differential access to power, wealth, status,
while the Trump administration seeks to
and resources – are a considerable source of
prioritize refuge for Syrian Christians
risk. Social identity matters deeply as a
seeking protections from a state that
source of intergroup conflict.
cannot, or will not protect them, the
identity can be manipulated by power
administration – at the same time – is
holders
raising questions about its willingness to
divisions and advance their own partisan
protect segments of its own population
interests.
from the type of systematic state-led
subordinate identities rather than being
discrimination that is an undeniable part of
closely connected to a larger, more unifying
the process that may lead to genocide.
superordinate identity.
Social Fragmentation.
to
when
create
intertwined
or
deepen
with
Social
societal
Individuals prioritize divisive
Social
In the Trump administration, global
fragmentation can be defined “as a process
citizenship now has taken a back seat to a
in modern society by which different groups
prevailing nationalist sentiment. President
form parallel structures within society,
Trump’s inaugural address made clear his
which
consistent
perception of the bleak cost of not putting
interaction between them over the full
America first: “For many decades, we've
spectrum of the social experience.”li In the
enriched foreign industry at the expense of
World Bank’s view, “social fragmentation
American industry; subsidized the armies of
can
other countries, while allowing for the very
have
permeate
little
or
society,
no
erupting,
for
example, as domestic violence in the
sad
depletion
of
our
military.
We've
household, rising crime and violence in the
defended other nations' borders while
refusing to defend our own.
trillions
and
trillions
And spent
of
and on to discrimination (a dominant group
dollars
denies rights of the powerless). The fourth
overseas while America's infrastructure has
stage in his process is dehumanization, or
fallen into disrepair and decay. We've made
the denying of one group’s humanity by the
other countries rich, while the wealth,
other group.liv In this stage, identity-based
strength and confidence of our country has
social divisions are fueled by polarizing
dissipated over the horizon. One by one,
speech
the factories shuttered and left our shores,
violence against a particular group. Such
with not even a thought about the millions
hate speech is especially potent when
and millions of American workers that were
tolerated or encouraged by the state.
promoting
hatred
or
inciting
left behind. The wealth of our middle class
Throughout his candidacy, and even
has been ripped from their homes and
into the early days of his presidency, Trump
then redistributed all across the world…
has trumpeted a virulent anti-Muslim
From this day forward, a new vision will
rhetoric.
govern our land. From this day forward, it's
surveillance of mosques, the creation of a
going to be only America first, America
registry
first.”liii “America First” separates us from,
Muslims in the US, and has warned that
and
radical Muslims are “trying to take over our
prioritizes
community.
us
over,
the
global
Moreover, such nationalism
He
or
children.”
has
database
called
for
system
to
more
track
A 2017 report by Amnesty
can become a global threat if it undermines
International,
our commitment to international norms
between developments in 2016 and Adolph
such as R2P and deprioritizes foreign aid to
Hitler’s rise to power in the 1930s, singled
needy
out
countries
in
terms
of
health,
agriculture, banking, security, etc.
Trump
misogynist
drawing
for
and
his
global
parallels
“discriminatory,
xenophobic
rhetoric.”lv
As genocide scholar Gregory Stanton
Stanton’s research has demonstrated that
has described, the rise of identity-based
rhetoric matters in the escalatory process of
social divisions can be conceptualized in the
creating identity-based social divisions. As
stages of an escalatory process that begins
Corey Saylor of the Council of American-
with classification (“us and them”) and
Islamic
continues through symbolization (giving
divisive rhetoric contributes to a toxic
names and symbols to the classification)
environment in which some people take the
Relations
(CAIR)
said:
“Such
law into their own hands and attack people
of the original stereotypical perceptions
of institutions they perceive as Muslim.”lvi
held by the majority group members.lviii
Indeed, a 2017 report by CAIR found “the
Moreover,
identity-based
social
number of recorded incidents in which
divisions tend to grow more encompassing
mosques were targeted jumped to 78 in
as threats to power increase.
2015, the most since the body began
bystanders can become tomorrow’s victims.
tracking them in 2009. There were 20 and
As Kenneth Roth, executive director of
22 such incidents in the previous two years,
Human Rights Watch, has argued: “We
respectively. The incidents include verbal
should never underestimate the tendency of
threats and physical attacks.”lvii
demagogues who sacrifice the rights of
Manipulating identity to sow, or
exacerbate,
social
divisions
reduces
incentives for trust, cooperation, dialogue,
and long-term social exposure.
Today’s
others in our name today to jettison our
rights tomorrow when their real priority –
retaining power – is in jeopardy.”lix
In an
While the US is relatively insulated
Republican
from the demographic pressures that
primaries, for instance, psychologists Nour
destabilize many fragile societies, we are
Kteily and Emilie Bruneau, found that the
not immune to the risk arising from
dehumanization of Mexican immigrants
unequal access to basic goods and services.
and Muslims was a unique and strong
Particularly relevant to social fragmentation
predictor of support for aggressive policies
are horizontal social inequalities – issues of
against those groups.
In response, the
group-based unequal access to basic goods
researchers found that these dehumanized
and services, including “health, education,
groups – Latinos and Muslims – were more
water,
likely to support violent as opposed to non-
infrastructure.”lx
violent collective action and also less willing
such basic goods and services is a common
to assist counterterrorism efforts. So, the
social
dehumanization of these minority groups
societies, however, this is an expectation
by
and
often unmet as the ability to access these
supporters actually helped – in a perverse
basic goods and services varies “within and
self-fulfilling prophecy – to reinforce some
across
analysis
of
some
the
2016
Republican
US
nominees
sanitation,
communications
Having equal access to
expectation.
different
and
For
social
fragmented
groups
and
geographic locations; rural communities
and women and girls…are particularly
American capitalism indifferent to its
vulnerable to being underserved.”lxi
injustices, the system is, indeed, rigged. The
In the US, striking group-based
wealthy
have
access
to
power;
our
disparities continue to be seen in income,
representatives are beholden to the special
education, health, and access to power.
interests they are supposed to protect us
Economically, in 2014, the median adjusted
from. It is a plain fact that our political
income for black households was $43,300,
system is compromised.”lxvi
compared to $71,300 for whites.lxii
these are long-term problems inherited,
In
education, a persistent achievement gap
rather
between whites and minority students
administration.
extends
well.
however, the Trump administration, as of
Nationally, high-poverty districts spend
this writing, has no clear domestic policies
15.6 percent less per student than low-
in mind with which to reduce the risk these
poverty districts do.lxiii Harvard Graduate
problems impose on the US.
along
class
lines
as
than
created,
To be sure,
To
by
the
be
equally
Trump
sure,
School of Education Dean James E. Ryan
There is an increasingly widespread
says: "Our education system, traditionally
recognition among researchers of the role
thought of as the chief mechanism to
gender inequalities play as a risk factor in
address the opportunity gap, instead too
violent conflict.
often
existing
studies, political scientist Mary Caprioli
societal inequities.”lxiv Health inequality –
found that domestic gender inequality was
including disparities in care and coverage –
correlated with a state’s greater use of
is also a deep part of American life, and
violent
threatening to become an even deeper
international disputes.lxvii
divide with the repeal of the Affordable
specifically
Care Act, particularly if there is no adequate
international
replacement.
One study, for instance,
deputy director of the Uppsala Conflict Data
found that substandard care leads to 260
program in Sweden, also found that gender
premature African-American deaths daily.lxv
inequality was significantly predictive of
Finally, unequal access also extends to the
higher levels of intrastate armed conflict
halls of power.
(that is, civil war).lxviii A 2009 OECD policy
writes:
reflects
“…not
and
entrenches
As Jonathan Kirshner
only
is
contemporary
military
at
In one of the seminal
solutions
resolve
Looking more
intrastate
conflict,
to
rather
Erik
than
Melander,
paper included unequal gender relations
among its list of key structural risk factors
full time in the United States typically were
for armed violence.lxix Two years later, the
paid just 80 percent of what men were
Institute for Economics and Peace found a
paid.”lxxiii
strong correlation between three separate
narrowed since the 1970s, there has not
measures of gender equality (in public, at
been a significant annual change since
work, and in private) and a general measure
2007. At that glacial pace of change, the
of state peacefulness (the Global Peace
gender pay gap in the US – which is even
Index, or GPI). For each of the measures,
worse for women of color – would not be
as gender equality decreased, a country’s
erased until 2152. In more global issues, a
ranking on the GPI decreased (particularly
2016 study from Save the Children found
on the index’s internal peace measure).lxx
the US ranks lower than Kazakhstan and
Focusing specifically on gender inequalities
Algeria (and just above Tunisia and Cuba)
in family law and practice (including
on
marriage, divorce, custody, inheritance, and
representation of women in parliament,
other intimate family issues), international
high teenage pregnancy rates and an
security expert Valerie Hudson and her
unconscionable
colleagues discovered that levels of state
mortality (14 women died per 100,000 live
peacefulness decreased as the level of
births in the US in 2015, a similar number
inequities in family law and practice
to Uruguay and Lebanon).lxxiv
increased.lxxi
one of only three countries in the world that
In
late
2015,
the
UN
sent
While the gender pay gap has
gender
equality,
due
record
to
its
low
on maternal
The US is
a
does not guarantee women paid maternity
delegation of human rights experts from
leave and affordable child care remains so
Poland, the United Kingdom, and Costa
elusive as to prohibit many mothers from
Rica to the US to prepare a report on our
returning to the workplace in good time.
country’s overall treatment of women. The
Women’s reproductive rights continue to be
delegates were appalled by the gender
under
inequalities they found in the US.lxxii These
introducing almost 400 bills in 2015 alone
inequalities remain no less apparent, and
to restrict women’s access to abortion (47 of
no less appalling, today.
which became state law) and the Trump
For instance, a
attack
with
now
state
poised
lawmakers
2017 report by the American Association of
administration
to
launch
University Women found “women working
renewed efforts to overturn Roe v. Wade.lxxv
Finally, all these areas of gender inequality
that can intensify social fragmentation. The
set, and reflect, a climate in which violence
fluid risk factors associated with political
against
instability
women
is
staggeringly
high.
–
what
political
scientist
Women are 11 times more likely to be killed
Matthew Krain has term “openings in the
by a gun in the United States than in other
political opportunity structure” – are a
high income countries, and nearly two-
bridge from where to when violent conflict
thirds of those murders are perpetrated by
or genocide might be most likely.lxxix
an intimate partner.lxxvi
As columnist
Political instability is heightened in
Nicholas Kristof reminds us: “Husbands are
the face of threats of internal, regional, or
incomparably more deadly in America than
international armed conflict. While threats
jihadist
of
terrorists.”lxxvii
College
and
armed
conflict
exacerbate
political
university campuses offer little sanctuary
instability, their actualization leads to
from gender-based violence as nearly one in
“periods characterized by a high incidence
four
of violence, insecurity and the permissibility
female
undergraduates
report
experiencing sexual assault.lxxviii
Finally,
exacerbated
social
lxxx
As former Secretary of
“There’s no longer an over there and an
with many of the risk factors already
over here…there’s just an everywhere.”lxxxi
discussed
Indeed,
general
of
acceptable.”
Political instability intersects
the
face
is
State John Kerry said in early 2017:
in
the
fragmentation
political
instability.
in
of acts that would not otherwise be
category
of
if
the
Trump
administration
governance. The governance category was
eventually goads Iran, North Korea, or
concerned with the ways in which a state’s
China into a war, it will only be a state
structure and authority is exercised and
versus state conflict for a short time. It will
how that might relate to risk of violent
quickly transform into a regionalized, or
conflict or genocide. The risk factors in that
even globalized, conflict. The saber-rattling
category were fairly static elements that
rhetoric of Trump and Russian President
alert us to where violent conflict or
Vladimir Putin even pushed the Bulletin of
genocide might be more likely.
Our
Atomic Scientists to move the symbolic
discussion of political instability, however,
Doomsday Clock to two-and-a-half minutes
looks more closely at internal or external
before midnight – the closest to midnight it
threats to a state’s authority or legitimacy
has been at any time since the height of the
Cold War.
In the words of Thomas
causal, multidimensional, and mutually
Pickering, an American diplomat who
reinforcing interactions of deeply enmeshed
served as George W. Bush’s ambassador to
risk factors. It is pointless to reduce those
the United Nations and Bill Clinton’s
multifaceted interactions to a single risk
ambassador to Russia, “Nuclear rhetoric is
index score.
now loose and destabilizing. We are more
place in the absence of these risk factors,
than ever impressed that words matter,
there certainly are many cases where a
words count.”lxxxii
significant number of risk factors exist but
where
While genocide rarely takes
genocide
does
not
occur
(for
instance, in Cote d’Ivoire). The more risk
Responding to Risk
factors for genocidal conflict that are
Genocide is an extremely rare event.
present, however, the greater the chance
But, while it does not happen often, it does
that accelerating factors may escalate a
happen.
And, when it happens, it is the
crisis situation, or that a triggering event
culmination of a long process that did not
could actually lead to the onset of mass
appear without warning.
violence – unless we take action to modify
were
signs
and
Rather, there
symptoms
along
a
those risk factors that can be modified.
predictable, but not inexorable, path. Those
As I mentioned at the outset, every
signs and symptoms – the risk factors we
country in the world is at risk for genocide
have discussed in this paper – are what we
– countries simply differ in their degree of
must attend to if we have any hopes of
risk. The US, over its history, certainly has
preventing genocide at home or abroad.
developed some important foundations,
While we have advanced far in our
structures, policies, and a unique brand of
understanding of the factors that put a
checks
and
society at risk for genocide, we are
government as well as civil society) that
reminded that no single risk factor exists in
mitigate much of the risk of genocide. We
a vacuum. Indeed, “all other things being
have a separation of powers within the
equal” is not an applicable phrase for
federal government and a clear, if not
understanding the intricacies of how risk
contentious, division of responsibilities
factors interrelate. Each individual case is a
between
unique and complex outcome of multi-
governments.
that
balances
(both
government
and
within
state
Through the norm of the
responsibility to protect, we have affirmed a
free, and enduring democratic system. Our
global
our
democracy is far more fragile than we wish
population from genocide and other mass
to admit and it is not a self-sustaining
atrocity crimes.
We would be naïve,
political system that we can simply put on
though, to believe that we have, or could
cruise control. As President Obama said in
ever have, mitigated all the risk of genocide.
his
This paper has argued that recent political
“democracy does require a basic sense of
transitions in governance, combined with
solidarity” and each of us are called to be
an
“anxious,
commitment
escalation
in
to
protect
long-term
social
fragmentation trends, have increased our
risk for genocide in the US.
Were we
noticing
of
these
same
signs
poor
January
jealous
preventive
Eastern
of
our
guardianship that is central to active
Latin
or
guardians
address,
In that spirit of solidarity and
citizenship,
African,
farewell
democracy.”lxxxiii
governance and social fragmentation in a
American,
2017
we
should
recognize
implications
that
can
the
be
European country, the risk of warning
proactively applied – by policymakers,
would be clear and alarms would be raised
academics, lawyers, civil society (including
by a range of governmental and non-
the media, social movements, NGOs, and
governmental actors.
diaspora
We cannot let the
communities),
and
individual
false comfort of believing it cannot happen
citizens – to mitigate the risks posted by
here stop us from raising those same alarms
governance
for our country.
factors.
and
social
fragmentation
In many ways, the work of genocide
From a governance perspective, we
scholars is to be alarmist. And if we do not
can offer the following ways in which
sound that alarm early, history tells us that
governance systems can be structured to
our options for responding to, and resisting,
reinforce those mechanisms that protect
the rise of a genocidal society are much
and sustain our democracy:
more limited the farther along the process
goes.
So, if we choose to ignore the
vulnerabilities
posed
by
the
factors
described in this paper, we risk what
matters most to us – an inclusive, stable,
•
Our political institutions should
elevate
inclusion,
representativeness, power-sharing,
and cross-identity group coalition
building
over
winner-take-all
majority
rule.lxxxiv
From
a
international
norms
and
prevention standpoint, diffusion of
practices. The mobilization of
power and institutional constraints
an
on executive power and state
resilient civil society – a vital
security
interface
–
independent,
including
an
active,
of
and
accountability
and
between the people and the
inclusive judiciary, media, police,
government – is of utmost
and
importance, particularly when
military
impartial,
engaged,
–
are
important
democratic safeguards against the
plugged
onset
networks.lxxxvi
of
violent
conflict
and
genocide.
•
•
The
into
international
political
elite
of
Governance systems can be
governance systems can be
structured to increase the
inclusive and representative
legitimacy with which the
of
state is viewed by its people,
plurality
as well as by the international
identities in its population –
community. Building citizens’
racial,
robust
the
class, clan, tribe, or political.
state’s “right to rule” means
While political mobilization
addressing issues related to
along identity lines is not
process
inherently
acceptance
of
legitimacy
(observance
of
agreed
or
the
multiplicity
of
provoking,
it
in
as well as output legitimacy
ways
that
(perceptions
about
state
susceptibility
performance
and
the
central to state functioning
and
compliant
with
religious,
violence-
managed
• The rule of law should be
overlapping
ethnic,
customary rules of procedure)
provision of services).lxxxv
and
should
be
constructive
reduce
to
identity-
based polar factionalism and
ensure
equal
political
participative
access
activity
to
and
decision-
making at all levels of the
political structure. The state
should be defined with no
social identity of “us” rather
reference to a dominant
than
social
subordinate social identities
identity
(including
religious identity).
•
Finally,
that
respect
be
not
commitment to R2P as a
•
their own people.”lxxxvii
and
in
education,
religion,
cultural
programs,
and
physical
integration
in
housing,
State and civilian authorities
can redress horizontal social
fragmentation
perspective, there are several preventive
promoting
deep
schools, and work.lxxxviii
how
governments should treat
for
by
cross-cutting
sports,
reinforcement of the US
implications
but
relations
territory. Central to this is a
social
superficial
through
minority groups within its
a
mere
appreciation of the “other”
policies
and practices protecting all
From
In a
engagement
about
for
by
contact
society. The state should be
“standard
antagonistic
nationalism is accomplished
throughout all segments of a
nondiscriminatory
leave
divisive
pluralistic society, this civic
institutionalized
intentional
more
clusters of “thems.”
for
fundamental human rights
can
the
the
deep
inequalities
by
providing
equal access to basic goods
and services across all social
identity
groups.
intrinsic and instrumental value of social
normative
cohesion:
equal
The
assumption
access
to
of
health,
education, water, sanitation,
•
We have a responsibility to
communications,
constructively
infrastructure
manage
should
and
be
diverse social identities in
realized across policy and
ways that lead to a more
practice.
inclusive
superordinate
•
We should remain diligent
atrocities as articulated in
about
the global norm of R2P
increasing
participation by women in
decision-making
Conclusion
and
Daron Acemoglu is a Turkish-born
Oxfam
American economist of Armenian origin. A
summarizes: “‘Gender' is not
professor at MIT, he is among the ten most
the optional extra which we
cited economists in the world. In a 2017
simply
piece advocating for the role of civil society,
dialogue.
As
can't
manage
in
fragile contexts, because we
Acemoglu
have more urgent things to
reminding ourselves that we do not live in
do.
gender
normal times, that the future of our much
inequality must be heart and
cherished institutions depends not on
centre
fragility
others but on ourselves, and that we are all
both
individually responsible for our institutions.
women's
If we lose them to a would-be strongman,
peace
we have only ourselves to blame. We are the
Tackling
of
programming,
to
secure
rights and promote
and
stability
in
such
contexts.”lxxxix
•
wrote:
“We
have
to
keep
last defense.”xc
Indeed, we are the last defense. The
Finally, threats of internal,
country which we have become is not the
regional,
one for which we must settle nor is it the
or
nternational
be
one to which we must acclimatize as
stable
“normal.” We can be the answer to our own
governance and economic
prayers. Each of us has responsibility for
conditions,
as
the country that we have made and, playing
with
the role of active citizen in the best sense,
international and regional
each of us have our own unique points of
human
and
leverage to leave an indelible positive
a
impression in the making of a more
the
inclusive, fair, and just society. Together,
responsibility to help protect
we can commit to taking the collective
populations
action necessary to protect and sustain our
armed
conflict
mitigated
can
by
as
well
cooperation
treaties
rights
–
commitment
laws
including
to
from
mass
democratic values, rather than buckling in
to fear and insularity. As President Obama
reminded us just days before leaving office,
“change
only
happens
when
ordinary
people get involved, and they get engaged,
and they come together to demand it.”xci To
not do so, and to take our democracy for
granted by resting in the erroneous comfort
that “it can't happen here,” is only to invite
the fulfillment of our darkest nightmares.
Endnotes
i
Beverly Gage, “Reading the Classic Novel that Predicted Trump,” The New York Times
(January 17, 2017), accessed on February 11, 2017 at
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/books/review/classic-novel-that-predicted-trump-sinclarlewis-it-cant-happen-here.html?_r=0.
ii
Ibid.
iii
Jean-Paul Sartre, “On Genocide,” eds. Richard A. Falk, Gabriel Kolko, and Robert Jay Lifton,
Crimes of War (New York, NY: Random House, 1971), p. 534.
iv
See Roger W. Smith’s “Human Destructiveness and Politics: The Twentieth Century as an Age
of Genocide,” in Isidor Wallimann and Michael N. Dobkowski (eds.), Genocide and the Modern
Age: Etiology and Case Studies of Mass Death (Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 2000),
21.
v
R. J. Rummel, Death by Government (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 1994).
vi
Martin Luther King, Jr., Why We Can’t Wait (New York, NY: Penguin, 1963), 120.
vii
Native News Online Staff, “US Presidents in Their Own Words Concerning American
Indians,” (February 14, 2016), accessed on February 15, 2017 at
http://nativenewsonline.net/currents/us-presidents-words-concerning-american-indians/.
viii
For a critical review, see Alex Alvarez, Native America and the Question of Genocide
(Rowman & Littlefield, 2015). Also see Lindsay Glauner, “The Need for Accountability and
Reparations: 1830-1976 the United States Government’s Role in the Promotion, Implementation,
and Execution of the Crime of Genocide against Native Americans,” DePaul Law Review, vol.
51, 2002.
ix
Mary Annette Pember, “When Will U.S. Apologize for Boarding School Genocide?,” Indian
Country Media Network (June 19, 2015), accessed on June 22, 2015 at
http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/06/19/when-will-us-apologize-boardingschool-genocide-160797?page=0%2C2.
x
Bureau of Indian Affairs, US Department of the Interior, “Gover Apologies for BIA’s
Misdeeds,” (September 8, 2000), accessed on November 8, 2013 at
http://www.bia.gov/idc/groups/public/documents/text/idc011935.pdf.
xi
Civil Rights Congress, We Charge Genocide: The Crime of Government Against the Negro
People (New York, 1951).
xii
Civil Rights Congress, We Charge Genocide, xi.
xiii
Ibid, xii.
xiv
Ibid, 195, 196.
xv
William Patterson, The Man Who Cried Genocide (New York: International Publishers,
1971), 206.
xvi
Jean-Paul Sartre, On Genocide, and a Summary of the Evidence and the Judgments of the
International War Crimes Tribunal (Boston: Beacon Press, 1968).
xvii
Ann Curthoys and John Docker, “Defining Genocide,” ed., Dan Stone, The Historiography of
Genocide (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), 25.
xviii
Accessed on February 11, 2017 at http://usgenocide.org/.
xix
James E. Waller, Confronting Evil: Engaging Our Responsibility to Prevent Genocide (New
York: Oxford University Press, 2016). Among others, the primary early warning systems
reviewed in this research include Gregory Stanton’s “Ten Stages of Genocide” (2013,
http://genocidewatch.net/genocide-2/8-stages-of-genocide); Barbara Harff’s ongoing models of
risk assessment (see her most recent “Risks of New Onsets of Genocide and Politicide in 2013,”
http://www.gpanet.org/content/risks-new-onsets-genocide-and-politicide-2013); the Minority
Rights Group International’s “Peoples under Threat” (2014,
http://www.minorityrights.org/12369/peoples-under-threat/peoples-under-threat-2014.html); the
University of Sydney’s “Atrocity Forecasting Project”
(http://sydney.edu.au/arts/research/atrocity_forecasting/); the Fund for Peace’s “CAST: Conflict
Assessment Framework” (2014, http://library.fundforpeace.org/library/cfsir1418castmanual2014-english-03a.pdf; the “Early Warning Project,” a joint initiative of the US
Holocaust Memorial Museum and the Dickey Center for International Understanding at
Dartmouth College (http://www.earlywarningproject.com); the Sentinel Project’s “Risk Factor
List” (https://thesentinelproject.org/what-we-do/early-warning-system/risk-factors-list/; the
World Bank’s “Worldwide Governance Indicators” (http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi);
the European Commission’s “Checklist for Root Causes of Conflict”
(http://www.eplo.org/assets/files/3.%20Resources/EU%20Documents/European%20Commissio
n_Programming%20Fiche_Conflict_Prevention.pdf ); ECOWAS’ “Early Warning and Response
Network” (http://www.ecowarn.org); the Forum on Early Warning and Early Response-Africa
(http://www.fewer-international.org/pages/africa); the International Crisis Group’s
“CrisisWatch” (http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/crisiswatch); the Jacob Blaustein
Institute for the Advancement of Human Rights’ Compilation of Risk Factors and Legal Norms
for the Prevention of Genocide (New York: The Jacob Blaustein Institute for the Advancement
of Human Rights, 2011); and the United Nations’ “Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes”
(2014,
http://www.un.org/en/preventgenocide/adviser/pdf/framework%20of%20analysis%20for%20atr
ocity%20crimes_en.pdf). All websites listed in this note were accessed on January 15, 2015.
xx
These defining features of governance are taken from the “Worldwide Governance Indicators”
project, accessed on January 16, 2015 at http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi.
xxi
Barbara Harff, “No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and
Political Mass Murder since 1955,” American Political Science Review, vol. 97 (2003), p. 63.
xxii
xxiii
United Nations, “Framework of Analysis,” 15.
Ayesha Rascoe, “Trump Accuses US Spy Agencies of Nazi Practices over ‘Phony’ Russia
Dossier,” Reuters (January 12, 2017), accessed on February 12, 2017 at
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-idUSKBN14V18L.
xxiv
Jon Swaine, “Four more journalists get felony charges after covering inauguration unrest,”
The Guardian (January 24, 2017), accessed on February 10, 2017 at
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jan/24/journalists-charged-felonies-trumpinauguration-unrest.
xxv
Jonah Engel Bromwich, “Felony Charges for Journalists Arrested at Inauguration Protests
Raise Fears for Press Freedom,” The New York Times (January 25, 2017), accessed on February
12, 2017 at https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/business/media/journalists-arrested-trumpinauguration.html?WT.nav=top-news&action=click&clickSource=storyheading&emc=edit_nn_20170126&hp=&module=b-lede-package-region&nl=morningbriefing&nlid=67962175&pgtype=Homepage&region=top-news&te=1&_r=0.
xxvi
See Human Rights Watch, accessed on February 13, 2017 at https://www.hrw.org/worldreport/2017/country-chapters/turkey.
xxvii
Annie Karni, “Trump Pits His Staff Against the Media,” Politico (January 11, 2017),
accessed on February 13, 2017 at http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-pressconference-paid-staffers-media-233496.
xxviii
Michael M. Grynbaum, “Trump Strategist Stephen Bannon Says Media Should ‘Keep Its
Mouth Shut’,” The New York Times (January 26, 2017) accessed on February 12, 2017 at
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/business/media/stephen-bannon-trump-newsmedia.html?WT.nav=top-news&action=click&clickSource=storyheading&emc=edit_nn_20170127&hp=&module=b-lede-package-region&nl=morningbriefing&nlid=67962175&pgtype=Homepage&region=top-news&te=1.
xxix
Dean Obeidallah, “Donald Trump’s Most Bone-Chilling Tweet,” CNN (February 6, 2017),
accessed on February 12, 2017 at http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/04/opinions/donald-trumpsmost-bone-chilling-tweet-obeidallah-opinion/index.html.
xxx
Christopher R. Browning, “Dangers I Didn’t See Coming: ‘Tyranny of the Minority’ and an
Irrelevant Press,” VOX (January 18, 2017), accessed on February 12, 2017 at
http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/18/14303960/tyranny-minority-trump-democracygerrymander-media.
xxxi
Phillip Rucker, “Stephen Miller Says White House Will Fight for Travel Ban, Advances
False Voter Fraud Claims,” The Washington Post (February 12, 2017), accessed on February 12,
2017 at https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/02/12/stephen-miller-sayswhite-house-will-fight-for-travel-ban-advances-false-voter-fraud-claims/?hpid=hp_hp-top-tablemain_pwr-miller-1125am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b73abf442b55.
xxxii
Josh Lowe, “US Now Classed a ‘Flawed Democracy,’ Report Finds,” Newsweek (January
26, 2017), accessed on February 12, 2017 at http://www.newsweek.com/us-flawed-democracybritain-brexit-economist-intelligence-unit-new-report-548458?rx=us.
xxxiii
xxxiv
See http://www.gallup.com for daily trackings.
Monty G. Marshall and Benjamin R. Cole, Global Report 2014: Conflict, Governance, and
State Fragility, (Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace, 2014), p. 21.
xxxv
United Nations Security Council, Doc. S/2004/616 (August 23, 2004), 4.
xxxvi
Jamil Dakwar, “All International Laws Trump’s Muslim Ban is Breaking,” Al Jazeera
(February 2, 2017), accessed on February 13, 2017 at
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/02/international-laws-trump-muslim-banbreaking-170202135132664.html.
xxxvii
MSNBC video accessed on February 13, 2017 at http://www.msnbc.com/morningjoe/watch/joe-takes-stephen-miller-to-school-on-law-875977283878.
xxxviii
Dan Merica, “Trump on Waterboarding: ‘We Have to Fight Fire with Fire,’” CNN (January
26, 2017), accessed on February 13, 2017 at http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/25/politics/donaldtrump-waterboarding-torture/index.html.
xxxix
Julia Manchester, “McCain on Trump Torture Stance: ‘The Law is the Law,’” CNN (January
25, 2017), accessed on February 13, 2017 at http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/25/politics/johnmccain-trump-torture/index.html.
xl
Adam Goldman, Matt Apuzzo, and Eric Schmitt, “Case of Captive in Yemen Could Test
Trump’s Guantanamo Pledge,” The New York Times (February 13, 2017), accessed on February
14, 2017 at https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/13/us/yemen-al-qaeda-terrorism-guantanamobay.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-ledepackage-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0.
xli
David Frum, “How to Build an Autocracy,” The Atlantic (March 2017), accessed on February
15, 2017 at https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-anautocracy/513872/.
xlii
Marshall and Cole, Global Report 2014, p. 5.
xliii
Ibid.
xliv
Ibid.
xlv
See, for instance, Nolan McCarty, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal, Polarized America:
The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches (Boston, MA: MIT Press, 2016).
xlvi
Sabrina Tavernise, “One Country, Two Tribes,” The New York Times (January 28, 2017),
accessed on February 12, 2017 at https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/28/opinion/one-countrytwo-tribes.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=MothVisible&moduleDetail=inside-nyt-region-1&module=inside-nyt-region&region=inside-nytregion&WT.nav=inside-nyt-region&_r=0.
xlvii
Jacob Blaustein Institute for the Advancement of Human Rights, Compilation of Risk Factors
and Legal Norms for the Prevention of Genocide (2011), see note 19.
xlviii
Christopher Ingraham, “Trump Says Sanctuary Cities Are Hotbeds of Crime. Data Say the
Opposite,” The Washington Post (January 27, 2017), accessed on February 13, 2017 at
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/01/27/trump-says-sanctuary-cities-arehotbeds-of-crime-data-say-the-opposite/?utm_term=.33cf67b6a322.
xlix
Tal Kopan, “Democrats, Advocates Question ICE Raids after Hundreds of Arrests,” CNN
(February 10, 2017), accessed on February 12, 2017 at
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/10/politics/democrats-question-ice-enforcement-raids/index.html.
l
Quoted material comes from paragraphs 138 and 139, respectively, of the 2005 World Summit
Outcome Document. See UN Document A/RES/60/1 (October 24, 2005).
li
Eric Sean Williams, “The End of Society? Defining and Tracing the Development of
Fragmentation through the Modern and into the Post-Modern Era” (2010), p. 47. Dissertation
for the Catholic University of America, accessed on February 15, 2017 at
http://cuislandora.wrlc.org/islandora/object/etd%3A16.
lii
World Bank, “Social Fragmentation,” p. 175, accessed on February 15, 2017 at
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPOVERTY/Resources/335642-1124115102975/15551991124115187705/ch6.pdf.
liii
Aaron Blake, “Donald Trump’s Full Inauguration Speech Transcript, Annotated,” The
Washington Post (January 20, 2017), accessed on February 13, 2017 at
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/20/donald-trumps-full-inaugurationspeech-transcript-annotated/?utm_term=.56b93ef41ce9#annotations:11203651.
liv
Stanton, “Ten Stages of Genocide.”
lv
Amnesty International, Amnesty International Report 2016/17: The State of the World’s
Human Rights (UK: London, 2017), p. 24.
lvi
Yara Bayoumy, “Trump’s Anti-Muslim Rhetoric is Fueling More Islamophobic Incidents,”
The Huffington Post (January 3, 2017), accessed on February 13, 2017 at
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumpislamophobia_us_57687474e4b015db1bca5fb4.
lvii
Ibid.
lviii
Nour Tkeily and Emilie Bruneau, “The Politics and Real-World Consequences of Minority
Dehumanization,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, vol. 43, 2017.
lix
Kenneth Roth, “We Are on the Verge of Darkness,” Foreign Policy (January 12, 2017),
accessed on February 12, 2017 at http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/12/we-are-on-the-verge-ofdarkness-populism-human-rightsdemocracy/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&u
tm_term=Flashpoints.
lx
OECD, Supporting Statebuilding in Situations of Conflict and Fragility: Policy Guidance
(DAC Guidelines and Reference Series, 2011), 34.
lxi
lxii
Ibid.
Pew Research Center, “On Views of Race and Inequality, Blacks and Whites are Worlds
Apart,” (June 27, 2016), accessed on February 13, 2017 at
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/06/27/on-views-of-race-and-inequality-blacks-and-whitesare-worlds-apart/.
lxiii
Alana Semuels, “Good School, Rich School: Bad School, Poor School,” The Atlantic
(August 25, 2016), accessed on February 13, 2017 at
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/08/property-taxes-and-unequalschools/497333/.
lxiv
Corydon Ireland, “The Costs of Inequality: Education is the Key to All,” US News & World
Report (February 16, 2016), accessed on February 13, 2017 at
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/the-costs-of-inequality-education-is-the-keyto-it-all.
lxv
Alvin Powell, “The Costs of Inequality: Money = Quality Health, Care = Longer Life,”
Harvard Gazette (February 22, 2016), accessed on February 13, 2017 at
http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/02/money-quality-health-care-longer-life/.
lxvi
Jonathan Kirshner, “America, America,” Los Angeles Review of Books (January 15, 2017),
accessed on February 12, 2017 at http://blog.lareviewofbooks.org/essays/america-america/.
lxvii
Mary Caprioli, “Gendered Conflict,” Journal of Peace Research 37 (2000), 51-68.
lxviii
Erik Melander, “Gender Inequality and Intrastate Armed Conflict,” International Studies
Quarterly 49 (2005), 695-714.
lxix
OECD, “Armed Violence Reduction: Enabling Development” (2009), 33. Accessed on
February 21, 2015 at http://www.poa-iss.org/kit/2009_OECD-DAC_Guidlines.pdf.
lxx
Institute for Economics and Peace, “Structures of Peace” (2011), accessed on February 21,
2015 at http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Structures-of-Peace.pdf.
lxxi
Valerie M. Hudson, Bonnie Ballif-Spanvill, Mary Caprioli, and Chad F. Emmett, Sex &
World Peace (New York: Columbia University Press, 2012).
lxxii
Laura Bassett, “The UN Sent 3 Foreign Women to the US to Assess Gender Equality. They
Were Horrified,” The Huffington Post (December 15, 2015), accessed on February 14, 2017 at
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/foreign-women-assess-us-genderequality_us_566ef77de4b0e292150e92f0/
lxxiii
American Association of University Women, “The Simple Truth About the Gender Pay
Gap” (Spring 2017), accessed on February 14, 2017 at http://www.aauw.org/research/the-simpletruth-about-the-gender-pay-gap/.
lxxiv
Anna MacSwan, “US Ranks Lower than Kazakhstan and Algeria on Gender Equality,” The
Guardian (October 11, 2016), accessed on February 14, 2017 at
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/oct/11/us-united-states-ranks-lowerthan-kazakhstan-algeria-gender-equality-international-day-of-the-girl.
lxxv
Katie Klabusich, “The Year in Reproductive Justice: 47 Anti-Abortion Laws, Clinic Attacks
and Hopeful Signs,” Truthout (December 24, 2015), accessed on February 15, 2017 at
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/34146-the-year-in-reproductive-justice-doctored-videosclinic-attacks-and-hopeful-signs.
lxxvi
Violence Policy Center, “When Men Murder Women: An Analysis of 2014 Homicide Data,”
(September 2016), accessed on February 15, 2017 at http://www.vpc.org/revealing-the-impactsof-gun-violence/female-homicide-victimization-by-males/.
lxxvii
Nicholas Kristof, “Husbands are Deadlier than Terrorists,” The New York Times (February
11, 2017), accessed on February 16, 2017 at
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75&ref=headline&te=1&_r=0.
lxxviii
Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Campus Climate Survey Validation Study: Final Technical
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lxxix
See Matthew Krain, “State-Sponsored Mass Murder: The Onset and Severity of Genocides
and Politicides,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1997), 331-360.
lxxx
UN, “Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes,” 10.
lxxxi
John Kerry, Comments at United States Institute of Peace Conference (“Passing the Baton
2017: America’s Role in the World”), January 20, 2017.
lxxxii
Robinson Meyer, “The Doomsday Clock’s Most Dire Warning Since the Cold War,” The
Atlantic (January 26, 2017), accessed on February 12, 2017 at
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/the-doomsday-clocks-new-and-direwarning/514544/.
lxxxiii
“President Obama’s Farewell Address: Full Video and Text, The New York Times (January
20, 2017), accessed on February 11, 2017 at
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/10/us/politics/obama-farewell-addressspeech.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photospot-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0).
lxxxiv
David J. Simon, “Building State Capacity to Prevent Atrocity Crimes: Implementing Pillars
One and Two of the R2P Framework,” Policy Analysis Brief (The Stanley Foundation,
September 2012), 3.
lxxxv
OECD, Supporting Statebuilding in Situations of Conflict and Fragility: Policy Guidance
(OECD Publishing, 2011), pp. 37-38.
lxxxvi
Scott Straus, “Retreating from the Brink: Theorizing Mass Violence and the Dynamics of
Restraint,” Perspectives on Politics 10 (2012), 343-362.
lxxxvii
Madeleine K. Albright and Richard S. Williamson, “The United States and R2P: From
Words to Action,” 2013, 14.
lxxxviii
Pauline H. Baker, “Getting Along: Managing Diversity for Atrocity Prevention in Socially
Divided Societies,” Policy Analysis Brief (Stanley Foundation, September 2012).
lxxxix
Louie Fooks, “Gender Inequality as a Driver of Conflict,” (March 5, 2014), accessed on
February 28, 2015 at http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/blog/2014/03/gender-inequality-as-adriver-of-conflict.
xc
Daron Acemoglu, “We Are the Last Defense Against Trump,” Foreign Policy (January 18,
2017), accessed on February 12, 2017 at http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/18/we-are-the-lastdefense-against-trump-institutions/.
xci
“President Obama’s Farewell Address: Full Video and Text, The New York Times (January 20,
2017), accessed on February 11, 2017 at
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/10/us/politics/obama-farewell-addressspeech.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photospot-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0).