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Published: July 24, 2012
Land of the Setting Sun?
Japan is facing big challenges as its population gets smaller, older, and
alarmingly suicidal. Here’s a closer look at some of the country’s problems.
Graphics by John Zhu
Sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,
World Health Organization, Statistics Bureau and the Director-General for Policy Planning of Japan, Wikipedia,
National Police Agency, The Economist, The Japan Times
Japan’s Challenges | Smaller, Older | Marriage and Divorce | Suicides | Good News?
Changes and challenges
Fertility, population, suicide, marriage, and divorce. All of these numbers are heading in
the wrong direction for Japan. Even a longer life expectancy can be problematic as it helps
create a rapidly aging society. Here’s how those numbers have changed since 1955.
Percent change
from 1955
250%
Divorce rate
200%
Dashed curves represent
United Nations projections
150%
Life expectancy
Population
Suicide rate
100%
Marriage rate
Total fertility rate
50%
0%
1955
1975
1995
2015
2035
2055
2075
2095
How does Japan compare with its peers?
2011 Total
fertility rate
Countries
Japan
1.39
United States
Marriages per
1,000 people*
Divorces per
1,000 people*
24.1
2.0
5.5
6.8
2.06
Suicides per
100,000 people**
11.8
7.6
Similar population
Russia
Mexico
4.9
8.5
1.43
2.27
5.5
21.4
4
0.8
Similar GDP
United Kingdom
1.91
France
2.08
3.8
2.0
3.9
2.1
6.9
16.2
Neighbors
South Korea
China
1.23
1.55
6.2
7.5
2.5
31.2
1.6
22.2
* — Latest available data from the United Nations. No earlier than 2006.
** — Latest available data from the World Health Organization. No earlier than 2008.
Japan’s shrinking,
graying population
Published: July 24, 2012
Land of the Setting Sun?
Japan is facing big challenges as its population gets smaller, older, and
alarmingly suicidal. Here’s a closer look at some of the country’s problems.
Graphics by John Zhu
Sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,
World Health Organization, Statistics Bureau and the Director-General for Policy Planning of Japan, Wikipedia,
National Police Agency, The Economist, The Japan Times
Japan’s Challenges | Smaller, Older | Marriage and Divorce | Suicides | Good News?
Declining fertility: A global story
Japan’s plummeting fertility rate draws attention, but it is only part of a larger story.
The world’s fertility rate has been falling since the 1950s.
Total Fertility Rate
5
4.95
2.33
Current global
replacement fertility rate
4
World
3.00
3
2.52
2
1.32
Japan
Dashed curves represent
United Nations projections
1
0
1955
1975
1995
2015
2035
2055
2075
2095
Defining fertility
The total fertility rate is NOT a measure
of how many children are actually born. It
is a prediction of the average number of
children a woman would have over her
lifetime if she lives through her entire
reproductive life (ages 15-49) and follows
the exact current fertility rates for each
age group as she ages.
The replacement fertility rate is the
fertility level at which a population exactly
replaces itself from one generation to
the next. This rate varies from country
to country. The current worldwide
replacement fertility rate is 2.33
children per woman. In industrialized
nations, it’s about 2.1.
If
Total fertility rate > replacement fertility rate
population increases
If
Total fertility rate < replacement fertility rate
population decreases
What makes fertility rates decrease?
There is a strong connection between a country’s fertility rate and its level of development.
As a country becomes more developed, wealth, education and urbanization all contribute to
a lower fertility rate as mortality goes down and birth control becomes more accessible.
Here’s a look at the fertility rates of countries at various stages of development.
Levels of human development
Low
Total 8
Fertility
Rate
(2011)
Medium
High
Very high
Niger
TFR: 7.52
HDI: 0.295
7
6
5
United States
TFR: 2.06
HDI: 0.910
4
2.10
Replacement
fertility rate for
industrialized
nations
3
2.33
Global
replacement
fertility rate
Japan
TFR: 1.39
HDI: 0.901
2
About 40 percent of the world’s
population live in countries with
sub-replacement fertility rates
1
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Singapore
TFR: 0.78
HDI: 0.866
0.4
0.5
Macao
TFR: 0.92
HDI: 0.944
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Human Development Index (2011)
The HDI measures levels of development. It takes into account life expectancy, mean years of
schooling, expected years of schooling, and gross national income per capita. HDI scores
range from 0 to 1. Larger numbers represent greater levels of development.
Japan’s population is still increasing, but ...
Despite Japan’s declining fertility rate, its population is still seeing modest gains. It takes
several generations to see the effects of fertility decline because of population momentum.
As this graph shows, however, Japan’s population is expected to plunge this century.
Population
(millions)
Dashed curve represents
United Nations projections
130
120
110
100
90
80
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
An age-old problem
A declining population might sound like a good thing for Japan, which is 10th in the world
in total population. In the short term, however, it creates an older population, which places
a greater burden on a shrinking group of working-age people who must care for the elderly.
Countries with the largest segments of residents who are 65 and older (2011)
Age Groups
Monaco
Japan
65 and older
Germany
15-64
Italy
0-14
Sweden
Greece
Austria
Bulgaria
Belgium
Portugal
USA
World
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent of Total Population
The aging of Japan over the decades
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Age Groups
65 and older
15-64
0-14
UN projections
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent of Total Population
Married ... with children
While Japan’s total fertility rate is plummeting, the average number of children its married
couples are having has actually remained relatively steady around two children per couple.
Here’s a look at the number of children for Japanese marriages of different durations.
Number of children
per marriage
2.5
Duration of
marriage
20+ years
10-14 years
15-19 years
5-9 years
0-4 years
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1977
2005
If married couples are having an average of about two children, why is Japan’s total fertility
rate so low? Researchers have attributed the decline in part to the falling marriage rate.
In Japan, few children are born out of wedlock, so the declining marriage rate has a big
effect on the fertility rate.
Why are there fewer
marriages in Japan?
Published: July 24, 2012
Land of the Setting Sun?
Japan is facing big challenges as its population gets smaller, older, and
alarmingly suicidal. Here’s a closer look at some of the country’s problems.
Graphics by John Zhu
Sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,
World Health Organization, Statistics Bureau and the Director-General for Policy Planning of Japan, Wikipedia,
National Police Agency, The Economist, The Japan Times
Japan’s Challenges | Smaller, Older | Marriage and Divorce | Suicides | Good News?
Marriages down, divorces up
After rising in the late 1960s and early 1970s, Japan’s marriage rate dropped sharply in
the ensuing decades before the decline slowed in the 1990s and 2000s. The rate is now
slightly more than half of what it was in 1971. Meanwhile, the divorce rate has climbed
steadily before leveling off in recent years. Here’s a look at the changes.
12
The recent decline in divorces results
from the decline in marriages.
10.5
10
Marriages per 1,000 people
8.0
8
6
5.6
4
2.30
Divorces per 1,000 people
2
2.01
0.84
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
Why the trends?
In an April 28 piece, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat wrote, “Japan is one of the
world’s least religious nations, the marriage rate has plunged and the divorce rate is higher
than in Northern Europe.” This implies a connection between religiosity and marriage and
divorce rates. Do the numbers back that up?
Religiosity and marriage
A look at select countries’ religiosity and marriage rates in 2009.
Religiosity*
100%
Qatar
South Africa
80%
United States
60%
* Religiosity is defined here as
the percentage of people
who answered “Yes” to the
following question in a 2009
Gallup poll: Is religion an
important part of your life?
The countries shown are the
ones in the poll for which we
could find marriage rates.
40%
Japan
20%
0%
0
3
6
9
12
15
Marriages per 1,000 people
Religiosity and divorce
A look at select countries’ religiosity and divorce rates in 2009.
Religiosity*
Qatar
100%
80%
United States
60%
Belarus
40%
* Religiosity is defined here as
the percentage of people
who answered “Yes” to the
following question in a 2009
Gallup poll: Is religion an
important part of your life?
The countries shown are the
ones in the poll for which we
could find marriage rates.
Russia
Japan
20%
0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
Divorces per 1,000 people
For a list of the countries shown in these two graphs and their data, see http://bit.ly/religiosity_marriage.
These graphs suggest that, contrary to Mr. Douthat’s claim, there is no strong connection
between a country’s religiosity and its marriage or divorce rates.
If not religion, what then?
The cost of marriage and motherhood
More and more Japanese women are postponing marriage or not getting married at all.
Aside from the cost of the average Japanese wedding ($40,000 in 2010), Japanese women
also face poor job prospects after they have children. The private sector’s business practices
discourage many from returning to their old jobs after giving birth, forcing them to take
low-paying part-time jobs. Note the sizable gender difference in part-time employment.
35%
% of employed Japanese women
who are working part-time
30%
25%
20%
% of employed American women
who are working part-time
15%
% of employed Japanese men
who are working part-time
10%
% of employed American men
who are working part-time
5%
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Divorce upon retirement
One reason for Japan’s divorce rate is that as workaholic men who have spent little of their
working lives at home begin to retire, their spouses find them too much to bear. That, along
with new laws that make it easier for women to share their ex-husbands’ pensions after
divorce, has resulted in large increases in divorces among the older population. Here’s a
look at the change in divorce rates by gender and age groups.
Men
Women
Divorces per
1,000 men
10
in 1990
Divorces per
1,000 men
in 2005
Divorces per
1,000 women
10
in 1990
8
Divorces per
1,000 women
in 2005
50-54
45-49
40-44
55-59
8
35-39
60-64
6
6
55-59
50-54
60-64
45-49
4
35-39
45-49 yrs old
50-54
40-44
55-59
60-64
35-39
65-69
70-74
30-34
75+
40-44
65-69
70-74
2
30-34
75+
65-69
45-49 yrs old
40-44
30-34
50-54
55-59
35-39
60-64
4
70-74
65-69
70-74
30-34
75+
25-29
75+ 2
25-29
25-29
20-24
25-29
20-24
20-24
20-24
15-19
15-19
Despite the sharp increase, Japan’s divorce rate is still relatively low, especially when
compared to the United States’. Another number, however, is much more troubling — the
country’s surging suicide rate, one of the highest in the world.
Who, where, when
and why of suicides
Published: July 24, 2012
Land of the Setting Sun?
Japan is facing big challenges as its population gets smaller, older, and
alarmingly suicidal. Here’s a closer look at some of the country’s problems.
Graphics by John Zhu
Sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,
World Health Organization, Statistics Bureau and the Director-General for Policy Planning of Japan, Wikipedia,
National Police Agency, The Economist, The Japan Times
Japan’s Challenges | Smaller, Older | Marriage and Divorce | Suicides | Good News?
Who are committing suicides?
A look at the demographics behind Japan’s suicides. Each square represents 1 percent of
the 30,651 suicides in 2011.
Employment status
Gender
Age
Men
≤ 19
60-69
Women
20-29
70-79
30-39
80+
Students (unemployed)
40-49
Unknown
Unemployed
50-59
Self-employed or
work at family business
Employee
Unknown
Reasons for suicides
Leading cause for suicides
in every age group except
19 and under
A look at the motives behind Japan’s suicides in 2011.
Family issues
4,547
Health issues
14,621
Financial/life issues
6,406
Job-related issues
2,689
Relationship issues
Of the 30,651 suicides in 2011, 22,581
had known motives. The numbers in this
graph do not add up to 22,581 because
up to three reasons are recorded for
each suicide.
1,138
School issues
429
Other
1,621
When economy sours, suicides rise
Japan’s economic problems have been cited as a major reason for its suicide rate. Here’s a
look at how changes in the suicide rates have corresponded with economic events.
“Economic miracle”
Record levels of growth
in postwar economy
Asset price bubble
Real estate and stock
prices greatly inflated
40
20
Weak recovery
Big employers cut
benefits and security
Oil crisis
Big shock to
oil-dependent
economy
Suicides
per 100k
people
30
The Lost Decade
Economic expansion halted
and unemployment climbs
Men
Total
Women
10
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
Where are the suicides?
A look at each prefecture’s suicide rate in 2011.
Suicides per
100,000 people
17 to 20.8
20.9 to 24.6
24.7 to 28.4
28.5 to 32.2
Suicides often go up after natural disasters. In March 2011, Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima
prefectures bore the brunt of the damage from the Tohoku earthquake, tsunami, and
nuclear plant accidents. A look at their number of suicides after the disaster, compared to
the same months from 2010.
Fukushima 2011
Iwate 2011
Miyagi 2011
Fukushima 2010
Iwate 2010
Miyagi 2010
70
60
50
40
30
March
April
May
June
July
August
Yamanashi Prefecture had by far the highest
suicide rate among Japan’s 47 prefectures in
2011 at 36.1 suicides per 100,000 people.
It was the fifth straight year that Yamanashi had
the worst rate. One reason is that the prefecture
is home to the Aokigahara Jukai forest, whose
long association with death and suicides draws
numerous people planning to kill themselves.
Flickr photo by ajari
http://www.flickr.com/people/
25766289@N00
Tokushima
Prefecture
Fewest suicides
in 2011 with
150
Ehime
Prefecture
Largest percent
increase from
2010 (8.2%)
Tokyo Prefecture
Most suicides in
2011 with 3,120
Nara Prefecture
Lowest suicide rate at
17.0; also had the largest
percent decrease from
2010 (-22.2%)
With its 164-foot-high cliff
overlooking the sea, the
town of Sandanbeki is
another suicide hotspot in
Japan. There are signs on
the rocky outcropping
advising would-be jumpers
to call suicide help lines.
Flickr photo by alexxis
http://www.flickr.com/
photos/alexxis/
Is there any
good news?
Published: July 24, 2012
Land of the Setting Sun?
Japan is facing big challenges as its population gets smaller, older, and
alarmingly suicidal. Here’s a closer look at some of the country’s problems.
Graphics by John Zhu
Sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,
World Health Organization, Statistics Bureau and the Director-General for Policy Planning of Japan, Wikipedia,
National Police Agency, The Economist, The Japan Times
Japan’s Challenges | Smaller, Older | Marriage and Divorce | Suicides | Good News?
Living longer, healthier
Japan’s population may be getting older, but the upside is that its people have some of the
longest and healthiest lives in the world. Here are the countries with the longest life
expectancies and how they compare in healthy life expectancy.
Life expectancy
Healthy life expectancy
World average life expectancy
90 years
Monaco
73 (81.4% of total life expectancy)
84
Japan
76 (90.8%)
83
75 (90.9%)
Switzerland
Australia
82
74 (90.2%)
Iceland
82
74 (90.2%)
Israel
82
73 (89.0%)
Italy
82
74 (90.2%)
Spain
82
74 (90.5%)
82
France
73 (89.3)
82
74 (90.6)
Sweden
79
70 (88.9%)
USA
Living better
Japan already has one of the world’s top standards of living, and it is expected to improve.
According to the United Nations’ projections, the country’s quality of life will be the highest
in the world by 2030 as measured by its score on the human development index.
Human
Development
Index*
Dashed curve represents
United Nations projections
1.0
0.901
(2011)
0.868
(2000)
0.998
(2030)
Projected
to be the
highest in
the world
0.8
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
* HDI scores range from 0 to 1. Larger numbers represent greater levels of development.
What goes down must come up ... at some point?
While high levels of development are generally connected with lower fertility rates, studies
have found that trend holds only up to a certain point of development as some very highly
developed nations have seen fertility rates rebound. Japan is nearing their development
level, and UN projections predict that the country’s fertility rate will start to rise again.
Total
Fertility
rate
3
2.1
Current replacement fertility rate
for industrialized countries
3.00
2
1.32
Japan
Dashed curve represents
United Nations projections
1
0
1955
1975
1995
2015
2035
2055
2075
2095