Download Carbon Cycle

SectionC:
CarbonCycle
Outline
C.1Introduction
C.2Theglobalcarboncycle
C.3Humanperturbationstothecarboncycle
C.4Globalcarbonbudget
GlobalClimateChange
GEOG313/513
Fall2016
1
ProfJ.Hicke
SectionC:
CarbonCycle
Learningoutcomes
• explainthemajorstocksoftheglobalcarboncycle
• understandthemajorsourcesandsinksofthe
carboncycleandthetimescalesoverwhichthey
operate
• describethehumanperturbationstothecarbon
cycleandwheretheemittedcarbonisgoing
GlobalClimateChange
GEOG313/513
Fall2014
2
ProfJ.Hicke
SectionC:
CarbonCycle
Outline
C.1Introduction
C.2Theglobalcarboncycle
C.3Humanperturbationstothecarboncycle
C.4Globalcarbonbudget
GlobalClimateChange
GEOG313/513
Fall2014
3
ProfJ.Hicke
Carbonstocksandfluxes
blackarrows:preindustrial
redarrows:fromhumanactivities
stocks
fluxes
GlobalClimateChange
4
IPCC,AR5,WGI,2013
ProfJ.Hicke
Carbonstocks
Carbonstocksinecosystems(plantsandsoil)
GlobalClimateChange
5
ProfJ.Hicke
Carbonstocks
cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/global_carbon/carbon_documentation.html
GlobalClimateChange
6
ProfJ.Hicke
Carbonfluxes
GPPorNPP
(andR?)
GlobalClimateChange
7
ProfJ.Hicke
ForestdisturbancesandtheCcycle
carbonmanagement
Sink of C from atmosphere
Source of C to atmosphere
Cumulative impact: equivalent to 5 years of emissions
from Canada’s transportation sector
Kurz et al. 2008, Nature
GlobalClimateChange
Kurzetal.,Nature,2008
8
Slide courtesy W.
Kurz, CFS
ProfJ.Hicke
Sea-to-AirCarbonFlux
to
sea
toair
cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/LDEO_Underway_Database/pco2_flux_rate_maps.html
GlobalClimateChange
9
ProfJ.Hicke
Long-termCarbonCycle
www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/kling/carbon_cycle/carbon_cycle.html
GlobalClimateChange
10
ProfJ.Hicke
SectionC:
CarbonCycle
Outline
C.1Introduction
C.2Theglobalcarboncycle
C.3Humanperturbationstothecarboncycle
C.4Globalcarbonbudget
GlobalClimateChange
GEOG313/513
Fall2014
11
ProfJ.Hicke
GlobalClimateChange
www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
12
ProfJ.Hicke
AnimationofCO2
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/hi
story.html
GlobalClimateChange
13
ProfJ.Hicke
Annualcycleofatmospheric CO2
GlobalClimateChange
14
dougrobbins.blogspot.com/2012/04/modeling-global-co2-cycles.html
ProfJ.Hicke
Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions
Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1 ± 1.8 GtCO2 in 2013, 61% over 1990
Projection for 2014 : 37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO2, 65% over 1990
Uncertainty is ±5% for
one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)
Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminary
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial
Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC
Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014
Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shown
Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)
The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissions
China (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%)
Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissions
Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissions
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)
China’s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average
Percapita
emissions
in2013
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Sizeofcountryproportionalto
totalCO2emissionsin2009
GlobalClimateChange
19
ProfJ.Hicke
CO2eemissionsbysector(source)
US
EPA,InventoryofU.S.GreenhouseGasEmissionsandSinks:1990– 2012,2014
IPCCAR4,2007
Global
GlobalClimateChange
20
ProfJ.Hicke
USemissions
byconsumers
offossilfuels
EPA,InventoryofU.S.GreenhouseGasEmissionsandSinks:1990– 2012,2014
StateoftheCarbonCycleReport,2007
GlobalClimateChange
21
ProfJ.Hicke
IncludingallgreenhousegasesincalculationofCO2e
GlobalClimateChange
22
ProfJ.Hicke
Tropical
deforestation
www.argentinaindependent.com/socialissues/environment/a
mazonian-deforestation-soars/
www.ibtimes.com/reversal-fortune-deforestationamazon-rainforest-increased-28-over-past-year-1472840
GlobalClimateChange
23
www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/05/31/187301981/Battling-Deforestation-InIndonesia-One-Firm-At-A-Time
ProfJ.Hicke
Deforestationpatterns
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Fires_and_Deforestation_on_the_Amazon_Frontier%2C_Rondonia%2C_Brazil_-_August_12%2C_2007.jpg
GlobalClimateChange
24
ProfJ.Hicke
Arcofdeforestation(red)inAmazon
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/problems/
GlobalClimateChange
25
ProfJ.Hicke
Historical Emissions from Land Use Change
Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation
Pg C yr-1
1.80
1.60
Africa
1.40
Latin America
1.20
S. & SE Asia
SUM
1.00
2000-2007
1.5 GtonC y-1
(16% total emissions)
0.80
0.60
0.40
2000
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
0.00
1990
0.20
R.A. Houghton, unpublished
GlobalClimateChange
26
ProfJ.Hicke
Land-Use Change Emissions
Global land-use change emissions are estimated 3.3 ± 1.8 GtCO2 during 2004–2013
The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990
Indonesian
peat fires
Three different estimation methods have been used, indicated here by different shades of grey
Land-use change also emits CH4 and N2O which are not shown here
Source: Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Total Global Emissions by Source
Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO2 emissions until around 1950
Coal consumption continues to grow strongly
Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaring
Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
SectionC:
CarbonCycle
Outline
C.1Introduction
C.2Theglobalcarboncycle
C.3Humanperturbationstothecarboncycle
C.4Globalcarbonbudget
GEOG313/513
Fall2014
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2004-2013 average)
32.4±1.6 GtCO2/yr
3.3±1.8 GtCO2/yr
91%
9%
+
15.8±0.4 GtCO2/yr
44%
10.6±2.9 GtCO2/yr
29%
Calculated as the residual
of all other flux components
26%
9.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Carbonuptakebylandandocean
GlobalClimateChange
IPCC,AR5,WGI,2013
31
ProfJ.Hicke
Globalcarbonbudget
IPCC,AR5,WGI,2013
GlobalClimateChange
32
ProfJ.Hicke
Global Carbon Budget
Emissions are partitioned between the atmosphere, land, and ocean
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Global Carbon Budget
The cumulative contributions to the Global Carbon Budget from 1870
Contributions are shown in parts per million (ppm)
sinks
sources
Figure concept from Shrink That Footprint
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
NorthAmericancarbonbudget
StateoftheCarbonCycleReport,2007
GlobalClimateChange
35
ProfJ.Hicke
Largeuncertaintiesinmodelresults
foruptakeofcarbononland
GlobalClimateChange
IPCC,AR5,WGI,2013
36
ProfJ.Hicke
Largeuncertainties
whenmodeling
futurevegetation
type
columns: differentGCMs
rows:
differentassumptionsabout
vegetation(amountofCO2and
itseffectonphotosynthesis)
Lapola etal.,2009
GlobalClimateChange
37
ProfJ.Hicke