Download A Twin-Pointers Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity

A Twin-Pointers Model for Water
Resources Carrying Capacity &
Challenge of Water Resources
Management in China
Wang Zhongjing
Tsinghua University
Introduction
„
WRCC :Water Resources Carrying Capacity
… less
international results of individual research
… incorporated into sustainable development theory
„
„
„
Jonathan M. Harris: integrated land carrying capacity, water
resources as an important factor
Olli Varis etc. linked the water quality carrying capacity of
Yangtze River Basin with the socio-economic status
This study
…A
more comprehensive definition
… A simple twin-pointers calculation model
… A clear, practical and scientific tool
… Applied in Shiyang River Basin and Hainan Province
Definition of WRCC
„
WRCC in a watershed or a region is the sustainable
population evaluated in the foreseeable period.
Population
Constraint
Maintaining
a living standard
compliance with
local social and
cultural traditions
Resources
Intellectual
Water
Technical
…
Definition of WRCC
• Two elements
the subject & the object of carryings
• Two important indicators
the population & the socio-economic
• The spatial scale
a watershed or region
• The temporal scale
the human predictable period
Definition of WRCC
Social
Cultural
Diversity
of WRCC
Living
Standards
Customs
The twin-pointers model for WRCC
„
Framework of the model
WRCC
Cw =
Wn
q p (t )
Dimension: Capita
Water resources
the remained water
after satisfying the water demand for
ecology and environment
Consumptions by human being
comparable with
economy, technology and fertility
the social, cultural and religion tradition
Cw contains the sustainable population & their living standard
The twin-pointers model for WRCC
Wn
Cw =
q p (t )
Wn
water available for
social and
economic
development(m3)
the remaining water after the total
water minus the ecology and
environment water demand
indicates the water condition, the
targets of ecology and environment
protection and water utilization of
the basin or the district
contains the subject characteristics
and object level and the interaction
of subject and object
The twin-pointers model for WRCC
Wn
Cw =
q p (t )
the total water consumption for social
and economic development divided
by the total population
qp(t)
social and economic
water consumption
per capital(m3/ca)
It changes with time.
tells the water utilization level, the
water fertility level and the water
constraints of the basin or the district
implies the corresponding
population, total economic quantity
and the life level of the district
The twin-pointers model for WRCC
„
Framework of the model
Local
W
Ecology & Environment
Wo
Outer
Available
Wb
Wn
Resources
Consumption
Social & Economic
Wec(t)
Social & Economic water
consumption per capital
qp(t)
Population
P(t)
Cw
The twin-pointers model for WRCC
„
Model factors calculation
… Wn :
water availability for society and economy
Wn = W − Wo + Wb
W
the total water
resources
W =Ws+Wg
Wo
Wb
The water demand
for sustainable
development of
ecology and
environment in local
and downstream
The transferred
water from the outer
basin and includes
the water rights from
transit water
The twin-pointers model for WRCC
„
Wo : the water demand of ecology and environment
WO = α W
Wo
α
refers to the minimumecological water demand
the ecological water demand coefficient
Climatic Zone
Arid
Semi-arid
Semi-humid
Humid
Ecological water
demand coefficient
0.45~0.55
0.55~0.65
0.65~0.75
0.75~0.85
α
- simpler ecological system
- seasonal rivers
- larger amount of water demand
- complex ecological system
The twin-pointers model for WRCC
: The social and economic water
consumption per capital
… qp(t)
q p (t ) =
Wec (t )
P (t )
Wec(t)
The social and economic
water consumption at
t moment
P(t)
The population at t moment
For now : statistics & investigation
For future: the macro-economy based water resources model with the
corresponding economy amount and the life level per capita
The twin-pointers model for WRCC
„
Surcharge Pw and Margin Rw
…
two straight indexes for evaluating the water
resources carrying status and carrying potential
The Surcharge Pw describes the overload status
of the overloading basin
Pw =
ƒ Pw < 1
ƒ Pw > 1
q p (t ) ⋅ P(t )
Wn
NOT overloaded, use Margin
overloaded
The twin-pointers model for WRCC
The Margin of water resources Rw reflects the
carrying potential status of un-overloaded basin
Rw =
Wn
q p (t ) ⋅ P(t )
ƒ Rw > 1
NOT overloaded
ƒ Rw < 1
overloaded, use Surcharge
Pw ⋅ Rw = 1
The application of TP-WRCC model
„
WRCC in Shiyang River Basin
The application of TP-WRCC model
„
Shiyang River Basin
… one
…W
of the most overloaded basin in China
= 1.69 ×109 m3
Ws= 1.577 ×109 m3 ,Wg= 1.16 ×108 m3
‡ The
water resources per capital is 760 m3
‡ The
average drought index is 5.6 ,α=0.5
The application of TP-WRCC model
Based on the socio-economic development data of 2000, we use
the macro-economic water resources model to forecast the future
economic and social development and water use scenarios in the
basin water resources constraint conditions
W
Wn
P(t)
Available qp(t)
Wec(t)
Real qp(t)
108m3
108m3
104
m3/per
108m3
m3/per
2000
223
379
18.71
838
2010
244
347
17.10
2020
267
317
2030
301
282
Years
16.93
Pw
WRCC
GDP
104 ca
￥104
2.21
100.99
0.44
701
2.02
120.69
0.85
15.31
573
1.81
147.76
1.34
13.73
457
1.62
185.36
1.77
8.46
The application of TP-WRCC model
3
104 ca
4
m /per
210
180
2.5
900
2
750
150
1.5
120
￥10
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
600
450
90
1
60
0.5
30
0
0
2000
2010
2020
WRCC
2030
Pw
300
150
0
2000
2010
2020
qp(t)
Suggestion:
-- decrease expenditure :
improve water use efficiency and effectiveness,
readjust industrial structure,
save water,
stop overexploiting groundwater …
-- increase income :
use transferred water …
2030
GDP
The application of TP-WRCC model
„
WRCC in Hainan Province
The application of TP-WRCC model
„
Hainan province
… in
the junction of tropical and subtropical
areas
…W
= 30.73 ×109 m3
Ws= 30.37 ×109 m3 ,Wg= 3.54 ×108 m3
‡ the
drought index is 0.7 ,Wo=0.8 W
The application of TP-WRCC model
W
Wn
P(t)
W Supply ability
Per capita
Wec(t)
Real qp(t)
108m3
108m3
104
m3/Ca
108m3
m3/Ca
2000
787
530
34.29
436
2010
875
771
39.72
2020
950
937
2030
1000
995
Years
307.3
61.46
WRCC
GDP
104
￥104
1.79
1410
0.66
454
1.55
1354
1.37
45.24
479
1.36
1284
2.75
54.08
541
1.14
1137
5.25
Rw
The application of TP-WRCC model
qp(t)
Suggestion:
-- There will not be entire water shortage problems
happening in the whole province
-- Improve water use efficiency by advanced technology
-- Take more attention on water shortage problems causing
by water quality deterioration.
Shiyang River Basin
The history
Western
Han
Qing
Dynasty
Prehistory
Tang Dynasty
Dynasty
Inner Mongolia
Badanjilin
Desert
Shiyang
River
Basin
Tenggeli Desert
Mingqin
Mingqin
Zhangye City
Jinchang
Jinchang
Hongya
Hongya
Mountain
Mountain
Reservior
Reservior
Baiyin City
Wuwei
Wuwei
Lanzhou
City
Qinghai Province
Aggravating
Desertification
Aggravating
Desertification
Abominable living environment
People had to move out and left houses alone.
Current situation
in Minqin
Artificial oasis
is empty.
Area of soil type 123
(see next slide)
When the population continuously increases
and the water resource per capita decreases…
The centre of oasis moves upwards
Oasis
Exceeding the Water Resources Carrying Capacity!
Ecological warning line of the oasis development
（％）
Proportion of non-agricultural population
The transformation history of the oasis centre from the upper area to the lower area
’
Flow-break in the
downstream,1950s
Mass emigration
began in 1961
Republican China
Flow-break in the
downstream,1958
Runoff Per capita (m3)
Keshiger River
Urumchi River
Masina River
Kuitun River
Controled by Middle Reaches
River/
Basin
Population
(Pop.)
/104
Agricult Total
ural Pop. Water
/104
8
/10
m3
Farmlan
Agricultur
WR Per d area
Water
GDP Per Food Per
al Water
Per
Capita Capita
Efficiency
Capita
Ratio
Capita
/m3
/Mu
/％
/％
/Yuan
/Kg
Shiyanghe
222.2
175.4 16.79
761
2.8
154
86
4316
455
Heihe
197.8
147.2
37.2
1880
2.7
102
91
5860
605
Kashiger
202.2
158.6
58
2870
1.8
83
66
2378
375
Hami
37.5
15.3
5.8
1540
1.6
126
70
8651
108
Easten
River
44.8
34.1
12
2687
4.7
85
91
15177 1162
Urumchi
274.2
115.7
27.9
1016
2.3
107
83
14878
225
Manas
148.1
74.5
27.5
1858
4.5
96
90
10392
277
Kuitun
73
37.1
13.9
1903
4.5
106
79
9619
193
Average
150
94.7
24.9
1660
2.8
102
81
8272
391
Controled by Middle and Lower Reaches
River/
Basin
Population
(Pop.)
Agricult Total
ural Pop. Water
WR Per
Capita
Farmlan
Agricultur
GDP Per Food Per
Water
d area
al Water
Efficiency
Capita Capita
Per
Ratio
Capita
/104
/104
8
/10
m3
/m3
/Mu
/％
/％
/Yuan
/Kg
Shulehe
51
31.4
13.7
2684
3.1
95
90
8984
254
Keliyahe
37.8
33.4
26.1
6893
1.6
39
70
2011
514
Hetianhe
128.6
111
43
3347
1.2
69
67
1771
486
Yerqiang
174.7
143
74.5
4266
2.5
74
71
2545
510
Weiganhe
89.1
71.1
47.7
5360
3
67
73
3749
560
Akesu
117.4
82.6
60.4
5141
4.5
87
74
5737
592
Kai-Kong
90.9
52.3
39.9
4390
2.8
74
71
15776
326
Turfan
55.1
41.7
12.9
2342
1.2
90
55
12168
189
Jing-Bo
51
35.7
20.6
4046
4.6
55
92
5979
450
Average
88.4
66.9
37.6
4259
2.7
72
74
4526
461
Hami Basin
U（％）
Proportion of non-agricultural population
Urumchi River
Kuitun River
Masina River
Kaikong River
Shule River
Jingbo River
Akesu River
various rivers in the east
Keshiger River
Hei River
Shiyang River
Weigan River
Tulufan Basin
Hetian River
Yerqiang River
Water resources Per capita W (m3)
Keliya River
Israel
Ecological warning line of the oasis development
Urumchi
Hami
U（％）
Proportion of non-agricultural population
Las Vegas
Manas
Shiyang
Kuitun
Shulehe
Akesu
JIng-Bo
Eastern Rivers
Heihe
Yerqiang
Hetian
Keliya
Weigan
Kashiger
Turfan
W10
Kai-Kong
Warning
zone
W90
Water resources Per capita
W (m3)
生态警戒的量化评价
Quantification
evaluation of Ecological warning
0.40
0.30
0.20
Less Secure Zone
0.10
0.00
-0.40
Hei River
Shiyang River
Danger Zone
精－博河流域
吐鲁番盆地
开－孔河流域
阿克苏河流域
渭干河流域
Less Danger Zone
叶尔羌河流域
克里雅河流域
疏勒河流域
奎屯河流域
玛纳斯河流域
乌鲁木齐河流域
东段诸河流域
哈密盆地
喀什葛尔河流域
-0.30
和田河流域
-0.20
黑河流域
-0.10
Warning Zone
石羊河流域
生态
戒 指 标 Warning
d
Index
for警
Ecological
Secure Zone
Las Vegas
Non Agricultural Population Ratio %
Israel
Ecological warning line of the oasis development
Urumchi
Hami
Mast
Shiyang
Kuitun
Shulehe
Akesu
JIng-Bo
Eastern Rivers
Heihe
Yerqiang
Kashiger
Turfan
Hetian
W10
Kai-Kong
Warning
zone
W90
Water Resource Per Capita W(m3)
Kerya
Only when industrialization and population
growth rate matches, the population and economies
scale of basin do not exceed the water resources
carrying capacity. The development model of the
oasis is stable. The development model of Urumchi
River Basin is one of the best evidences.
This is also the nature of virtual water.
„The Instability Transfers from the lower
to the upper?
„The tail of oasis is drying?
„The ecology system deteriorates rapidly?
That is
Due to lack of water, and …
Backwards of economic structure and
production patterns
Adjust the industrial structure
and raise the water efficiency!
Discussion and Summary
C
pt
e
c
on
ex
d
n
&I
An important indicator
for evaluating the
coordinate level
between human beings
and nature
WRCC
C
n&
o
i
t
la
u
c
l
a
ysis
l
a
An
It can reflect the
dynamic characters of
WRCC and the outside
transfer water’s
affection to local
carrying capacity, and
can calculate the WRCC
and living standard.
ni
n
a
l
P
M
&
g
n
a
me
e
g
na
Decision makers can
judge the water
carrying status,
analyze the reasons
of overloading, and
to find the methods
to improving WRCC
through this model.
The TP-WRCC Model
nt
Thanks for Attention!