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We start with LTER, USFS, USGS networks to seek supporFng empirical evidence Boreal coniferous forest Boreal mountain system Boreal tundra woodland Polar Subtropical desert Subtropical dry forest Subtropical humid forest Subtropical mountain system Subtropical steppe Temperate continental forest Temperate desert Temperate mountain system Temperate oceanic forest Temperate steppe Tropical dry forest Tropical moist forest Tropical mountain system Tropical rainforest Water Forest Hydrology Science Portland, Oregon -‐ December 9-‐11, 2015 7 A1: Catchment water yields follow the Budyko curve Jones et al. (2012) Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-‐term ecological research sites. BioScience 62: 390-‐404. Forest Hydrology Science Portland, Oregon -‐ December 9-‐11, 2015 8 A2: Climate change is driving shi]s along the Budyko curve ElasFcity LEFT PANEL: climate driven deviaBons from curve RIGHT PANEL: e = elasBcity = range in DI/range in EI residuals e > 1 = high elasBcity (approximaBng Budyko curve) e < 1 = low elasBcity (deviaBng from Budyko curve) Creed et al. (2014) Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: Results from long-‐term experimental watershed sites across North America. Global Change Biology 20: 3191-‐3208. 9 A3: Thresholds in climate warming exist that drive shi]s from “elasFc” (predictable) to “inelasFc” (unpredictable) behaviour Smaller elasBcity, larger deviaBons from Budyko curve Creed et al. (2014) Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: Results from long-‐term experimental watershed sites across North America. Global Change Biology 20: 3191-‐3208. A4: Forest type (and forest age) likely influence deviaFons from Budyko curve Forest Hydrology Science Portland, Oregon -‐ December 9-‐11, 2015 Budyko curve provides an organizing principle for hydrological resilience QuesFons 5. Do climate-‐driven deviaBons from the Budyko curve have seasonality? 6. What are the effects on hydrological peak and base flows? 7. Are there feedbacks between forest and water yield? Creed et al. (2015) Climate warming causes intensificaBon of the hydrological cycle resulBng in changes to the vernal and Forest Hydrology Science autumnal windows in a northern temperate forest. Portland, Oregon -‐ December 9-‐11, 2015 Hydrological Processes. 11 A5: Climate-‐driven deviaFons have seasonality Is the temperate forest biome showing “early warnings” of change in hydrological regime in response to climate change? Forest Hydrology Science Portland, Oregon -‐ December 9-‐11, 2015 12
