Download Annex A6.14 Debriefing and summary (Thomas Bie)

Debriefing and Summary
EU Twinning Project
Support to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics
Activity A.6, Jerusalem, 8-11 July, 2013
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Findings (1)
Decision (cf. the Twinning contract):
 Only planning for development of FDI statistics and
investment income from FDI
Overall findings
 the Israeli BoP system is in rather good shape, and
the work is well distributed and managed by CBS and
BoI
 the methodologies (IMF/OECD) are well understood,
and only in rather few cases Israel is not in
compliance with the manuals
 the data collection to a large extent meets the data
requirements from the manuals
 in particular, the FDI questionnaires are consistent,
but the different forms constitute a complex system
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Findings (2)
ITRS is a cornerstone in Israel’s BoP system, and in
some ways ITRS causes problems:
 ITRS data supplements the directly reported FDI data
 Elimination of directly reported FDI from ITRS is not easy,
implying a risk for double-counting/under-counting (?)
 ITRS generally provides only limited information –
difficulties in meeting OECD and IMF requirements
 For 15% (outward) and 37% (inward) only aggregated data
– ITRS code and currency
 The ITRS codes are often used incorrectly by the banks,
implying time consuming data quality work internally in
BoI
 The ITRS codes generally are not detailed enough (1985
system)
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Findings (3)
ITRS serves (other) purposes:
 Maintainance of populations and samples
 Data on a daily basis from the banks provide
important analytical information for the surveillance
of the foreign reserve / the money market / the
monetary policy
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distinguishment between the ITRS and the FX systems –
possibly the monetary policy needs can be served by the FX
system
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Findings (4)
Real estate in the BoP and IIP
 Real estate definition: i.e. private/non-commercial
purposes
 Currently, Israel is not reporting stock data (IIP) regarding
real estate, but only transactions, based on the ITRS
 Accumulated flows as basis for estimation is not an
attractive solution
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Non-residents, with Israeli real estate, becoming residents
What year to start?
ITRS problems - precision, coverage
 Other possible data sources that could be investigated
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Data on transactions from tax authorities
Information from other bodies, e.g. central registrations on
land and buildings
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>> Conclusions and recommmendations
 Joint Working Group (WG): Bank of Israel and CBS –
monthly meetings
 Time plan toward final plan 1 August 2014
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The WG controls and details time plan
First deadline 15 October 2013: outlining of topics to be dealt
with in an overall plan and report – e.g.
- Future coverage of FDI
- Co-ordination of BoI survey on FDI and possible, supplementary CBS survey
- Design of new questionnaires based on a number of existing forms plus
(new) manual requirements
- Integrated reporting: Opening stock + transactions + revaluations =
Closing stock
- How to use the ITRS for statistical purposes in the future
- Identification of problem areas: Ultimate Investing Country, Ultimate
Control Owner, reverse investments, real estate => and how to solve
these
- Additional Israeli requirements?
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Budgeting at the level of sub-items (separate parts of the
project)
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BoP/financial account: Assessment (5)
The FDI database (CBS):
 In theory, the FDI database is a possible gold-mine of
information
 A clear strategy of its maintenance is needed
 Exactly, what data should be in the data base?
 … and what data sources should be fed into the database?
 … at what intervals?
 … and so on!
 What IT solution would be adequate?
 How many resources should be be devoted to the
maintenance?
The statistics ordinance currently does not allow for the
business register to be utilized optimally
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BoP/financial account: Assessment (6)
What are the Twinning project’s actual possibilities? What kind of
plan, i.e. how extensive (and expensive!) a plan can we work
toward? Basically, two possible paths:
1. Improvement of the ITRS based system – i.e. a relatively
limited plan
2. A total, or almost total (cf. the monetary policy needs)
replacement of ITRS with a full direct reporting system
In principle, a decision on this would be good to have soon.
This is probably not realistic.
Instead – the Twinning might focus on locating ”the low-hanging
fruits”, i.e. the most easily attainable improvements within the
current system
And – at the same time - the Twinning project might produce a
general report for the managements of CBS and BoI as part of the
end-product of the component work. This document would
describe the pros and cons of the alternative solutions and their
statistical and financial consequences.
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