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GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF MONTENEGRO MONTENEGRIN DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 2005 - 2007 Podgorica, 2005. 1 CONTENTS C O N T E N T S ................................................................................................... 2 I N T R O D U C T I O N ....................................................................................... 4 1. INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK ......................................... 5 2. ANALYSES OF DEBT POSITION AS OF THE END OF 2004 ................. 7 3. PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICY GUIDELINES ............... 10 Reorganization of T-bills Issuance .............................................................................................................10 Repayment of Bank Loans ..........................................................................................................................10 Repayment of Budget Arrears...................................................................................................................11 Establishment of key debt indicators as guidelines for debt and liquidity management .....................11 Investment in infrastructure shall increase in accordance with established limits................................11 Basic budget shall remain balanced ...........................................................................................................11 Reserves for capital investments and preparation of capital budget ......................................................11 4. ANALYSES AND PROJECTIONS OF DEBT INDICATORS MOVEMENTS 12 Total debt/Gross Domestic Product ..........................................................................................................14 Total debt/Budget revenues ......................................................................................................................14 Interest costs/Budget revenues ..................................................................................................................14 Total debt servicing/Budget revenues .......................................................................................................14 5. PROJECT ACTIVITIES ................................................................................ 15 5.1. REVIEW OF CURRENT INVESTMENT PROJECTS ...........................................................15 5.1.1. WORLD BANK – IDA (International Development Agency) ..................................................16 Ministry of Economy ................................................................................................................................16 Ministry of Environment and Urban Development ..................................................................................16 5.1.2. EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK ........................................................................................16 Ministry of Transport ................................................................................................................................16 Ministry of Economy ................................................................................................................................17 5.1.3. EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT .............................17 Ministry of Transport ................................................................................................................................17 Ministry of Economy / Agency for Reconstruction of Economy and Foreign Investments .....................17 5.1.4. GERMAN CREDIT BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT ..................17 Ministry of Economy ................................................................................................................................17 2 Ministry of Environment and Urban Development ..................................................................................17 5.2. FUTURE INVESTMENT PROJECTS .........................................................................................18 5.2.1. EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK ........................................................................................18 Ministry of Transport ................................................................................................................................18 Deputy Prime Minister Cabinet for Economic Policy and Economic Development ................................19 Ministry of Environment and Urban Development ..................................................................................19 5.2.2. EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT .............................19 Ministry of Transport ................................................................................................................................19 Ministry of Environment and Urban Development ..................................................................................20 Ministry of Environment and Urban Development ..................................................................................20 5.2.3. GERMAN CREDIT BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT ..................20 Deputy Prime Minister Cabinet for Economic Policy and Economic Development ................................20 5.2.4. OTHER PROJECTS...................................................................................................................20 Ministry of Environment and Urban Development ..................................................................................20 Ministry of Transport/ Ministry of Agriculture, Water Supply and Forestry ...........................................21 Ministry of Education ...............................................................................................................................21 5.2.5. RECAPITULATION..................................................................................................................22 5.3. INVESTMENT PROJECTS OF PUBLIC SECTOR FOR THE PERIOD 2005-2007 .................23 6. C O N C L U S I O N ................................................................................ 27 3 INTRODUCTION The objective of the Debt Management Strategy is to identify the key directions and priorities of midterm debt policy. Domestic legislation puts the emphasis on defining investments to be financed by foreign credit lines. Significant amount of debt and the costs that the State Budget has for servicing and refinancing debt, have significant impact on the State Budget, balance of payment, banking system and money market. Having in mind the mentioned, debt management strategy is extremely significant for maintenance of macroeconomic stability of a country on one hand as well as guidelines to optimal investment portfolio that will provide for sustainable development of Montenegro. Since Montenegro defined membership in European Union as its strategic political goal, it is obliged to establish required financial infrastructure in its market. This proposal document has been developed based on budget projections and projections of macroeconomic indicators; it refers to the period 2005-2007 and it will be another regulation that will contribute to better compatibility with EU legislation. Final numbers shall be defined in the annual Budget Law for 2006 and 2007. The Strategy comprises two parts. In the first part covered is the institutional and legal framework within which the strategy and analytical review of State debt at the end of 2004 shall be developed. The second part comprises debt management policy guidelines and analysis of debt indicators movements based on desirable indebtedness amount. The second part finishes with the proposal of project activities, which are possible and needed to be financed by 2007. The Strategy includes the projects submitted to the Ministry of Finance by line ministries, state agencies, public enterprises and specific local self-governments. All the project proposals submitted to the Ministry of Finance are incorporated in the Strategy. However, annual debt limits of the State do not allow all of them to be realized in the next three-year period. Part I: DEBT STATUS OF MONTENEGRO AT THE END OF 2004 1. Institutional and Legal Framework 2. Debt Analyses as of the end of 2004 Part II: NEW DEBT STRATEGY 2005 - 2007 3. Debt Management Policy Guidelines 4. Analyses and projections of movement of debt indicators 5. Project activities 6. Conclusion and Recommendations 4 PART I: DEBT STATUS OF MONTENEGRO AT THE END OF 2004 1. INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK Law on Indebtedness and Public Debt Management, adopted at the beginning of 2004 (Off. Gazette of RoM, no. 11/04) (hereinafter: the Law), unifies the current regulatory practice and provides clear guidelines with respect to: the manner and procedures of State indebtedness, the limits of indebtedness, functioning and responsibility of public sector institutions for public debt management, manner for issuance of state guarantees and maintenance of data and reporting on public sector debt. Foreign and domestic indebting of the State can be done based on a corresponding document adopted by the Government of the RoM, in accordance with the limits set in annual budget. State guarantees and counter-guarantees are issued by the Government, and at explicit request of a lender it can be done by the Parliament of the Republic of Montenegro. Public debt management and administration, coordination of activities related to new debt, provision of official information and preparation of official information for the Government are all responsibilities of the Ministry of Finance. Sector for public debt management is placed within State Treasury. In accordance with decisions of the Government, Minister of Finance signs contracts on indebtedness. The Minister is authorized to determine a legal entity to issue T-bills and bonds in domestic and international markets on behalf of the State. The Central Bank of Montenegro is a fiscal agent of the State. If authorized by the Minister of Finance, it can issue state securities in domestic and international markets. The Government is obliged to determine the measures required for adjustment of the amount of outstanding debt, as well as the ratio of the amount of outstanding liabilities and GDP according to the methodology applied in EU countries, which does not exceed the maximum recommended by EU, i.e. permitted share of consolidated public debt in GDP should not exceed 60%. According to criteria from the Law, public debt represents the consolidated debt of public sector entities in Montenegro (Government debt, including guarantees and counter-guarantees, local government debt, extrabudgetary funds debt, public enterprises1’ debt and budget arrears). Maastricht criteria for public debt exclude the public enterprises – created debt and guarantees issued by the State for the needs of public enterprises with the exception of those for which there are grounded estimations that they would be “called”, i.e. the Government shall be obliged to repay them from the Central 1 Public enterprises whose majority owner is the State – over 50%. 5 Budget (Annex I). So, in accordance with those criteria public enterprises are excluded from the analyses.2 Debt Policy Committee, the members of which are the Minister of Finance, Minister of Economy and the President of CBM Council, establishes the proposal Debt Strategy drafted by the Ministry of Finance based on the needs expressed by public sector subjects, projections of the movement of the main macroeconomic variables, impact of the new debt on the budget, projection of the cumulative debt position at the end of fiscal year and forwards it to the Government for adoption. The Government proposes Annual Government Indebtedness Plan, which is a part of the budget, based on Debt Strategy. All the public sector subjects: the State, public enterprises founded by the State, local government, extra-budgetary funds and all legal entities where the State is a majority shareholder – with at least 51% ownership, may take foreign debt only based on Government decision. Also, all public sector subjects having foreign debt are to inform the Ministry of Finance on regular bases, of any withdrawal of credit funds and the repayment schedule. The same applies to all legal entities outside the public sector if using state guarantees in respect of any credit. In case the state guarantees are activated due to unfulfilled financial liabilities by loan end-users, the State is entitled to collect the amount it paid for from end-users. 2 The major part of public enterprises debt in Montenegro refers to liabilities to foreign loans approved prior 1992. As the Law on Foreign Debt and Frozen FX Savings envisages this part of liabilities to be overtaken by the Government of RoM, they are included in the amount of foreign debt of Montenegro. 6 2. ANALYSES OF DEBT POSITION AS OF THE END OF 2004 Public debt of Montenegro which comprises: debt to domestic banks, liabilities in respect of purchased T-bills, liabilities in respect of issued old foreign savings bonds, local self-government debt, consolidated arrears of the Budget3 and withdrawn amount of foreign loans4, amounted to 742.4 million € (hereinafter: mil €) as of 31st December 2004 (Table 2-1) or 48.4% of GDP. Domestic debt was 254.1 million EUR or 34.2% of the public debt, while foreign debt was 488.3 million EUR or 65.8%. This amount is not definite primarily due to unfinished negotiations and debt division5, unfinished negotiations on former Yugoslavia succession and impossible quantification of explicit liabilities taken over pursuant to Law on Restitution. According to present estimation, there shall not be huge changes after the negotiations on division of financial assets and liabilities with the Republic of Serbia have been finished. Table 2-1: Public Debt of Montenegro – Amount and Structure in the Period 2002-2004 – (withdrawn foreign credits) Euro (million) Year Dome stic debt 1 2 2002 255.6 2003 249.7 2004 254.1 GDP 3 1,301.0 1,433.0 1,535.0 Domestic Foreign Foreign Debt/GD Debt/G Debt P DP (2/3) 4 5 19.6% 17.4% 16.6% 893.6 461.5 488.3 (5/3) 6 68.7% 32.2% 31.8% Public Debt Public Debt/G DP (2+5) (11/6) 8 7 1,149.2 711.2 742.4 88.3% 49.6% 48.4% Source: Ministry of Finance Public debt in 2002 amounted to 1,149.2 million EUR or 88.3% of gross domestic product of Montenegro. That was before rescheduling of debt with IBRD and Paris Club and before final agreement with the Republic of Serbia on London Club debt. Debt of the Central Budget and Extra-budgetary Funds – Pension Fund, Health Fund and Employment Fund. 4 The foreign debt position refers to withdrawn funds of approved loans. The calculation does not include foreign loans approved to public enterprises that are considered to be repaid with the funds of the enterprise – end user, which are guaranteed by the Government. However, gurantees to the public enterprise Port of Bar, loan from European Investment Bank in the amount of 6 million € and guarantees for the public enterprise Regional Watersupply of Budva, loan from German Bank for Reconstruction and Development in the amount of 5.1 million €, are included in debt position. The Government is most likely to have to repay the major part of the loan for the public enterprise Port of Bar, while the end users for the other loan are coastal municipalities and Cetinje which according to criteria are to be included in public debt calculation. For the time being there are no estimations that other guarantees shall be activated towards the Government or the Central Budget. 5 Commission for Dividing Joint Property, established pursuant to Article 20 of the Law on Constitutional Charter Implementation, which should also divide NBS liabilities, still has not divided foreign debt (nonallocated and part of allocated foreign debt) between Serbia and Montenegro. 3 7 The largest portion of public debt refers to inherited long-term obligations from the old systems (former SFRY and FRY). This primarily refers to foreign debt taken over pursuant to Law on Settling Claims and Liabilities Based on Foreign Debt and Old Foreign Currency Savings, which at the end of 2004 amounted 434.7 million EUR, 89% of foreign debt or 58.6% of the public debt, mostly IBRD and Paris Club loans. Namely, except for credit arrangements with international financial institutions (IMF, IBRD and other) and bilateral credit arrangements between SFRY and other governments, majority of foreign loans, concluded by banks and companies, represented their commercial debt not guaranteed by SFRY or National Bank of Yugoslavia. Starting from 1983, when SFRY accepted the process of multilateral rescheduling and foreign debt liabilities’ refinancing due to foreign exchange illiquidity, complete foreign debt (as well as new foreign credits concluded) was guaranteed by SFRY and NBY and thus it was converted to contingent public debt. This debt consists of allocated debt of loan users from the Republic of Montenegro and a part of non-allocated debt (5.88%) contracted or guaranteed by former SFRY and taken over by FRY (36.52% of non-allocated debt of SFRY). Beside old foreign debt, “inherited” public debt also consists of old foreign currency savings obligations, taken over by the same law. Liabilities for old foreign currency savings at the end of 2003 were 127 million EUR6, and at the end of 2004 they were 123 million EUR or 16.6% of public debt. Therefore, the inherited liabilities from the old system represented 75.2% of total public debt of Montenegro at the end of 2004. The remaining 24.8% refer to new foreign borrowings in the period 2000-2004 and liabilities based on short-term borrowing, loans and T-bills. The structure of domestic debt can be seen in Table 2-2. In addition to liabilities in respect of government bonds of foreign currency savings, the structure of domestic debt comprises consolidated budget liabilities, bank loans, issued T-bills and local self-government debt. Table 2-2. Amount and structure of domestic debt of Montenegro in the period 2002-2004 Euro (million) Year Loans T-bills Old Budget foreign arrears savings liabilities Local self- Domestic government debt debt GDP (5/6) (2+3+4+5+6) 1 2002 2003 2004 2 3 18.2 19.5 8.9 9.8 19.7 37.4 4 127 127 123 5 100.6 83.5 61.8 6 7 0.0 0.0 23.0 Domestic debt /GDP 8 255.6 1,301.00 249.7 1,433.00 254.1 1,535.00 9 19.65% 17.42% 16.55% 6 The amount does not include interest which is 2% annually in accordance with the Law on settlement of liabilities in respect of foreign debt and old foreign currency savings of citizens (Off. Gazette of RoM 55/03) 8 Table 2-3 is showing the amount and schedule of public debt movement with total guarantees issued by the Government of Montenegro in respect of foreign credits where public enterprises are also included. From the Table it can be seen that total amount of “old” debt and issued guarantees for the needs of public enterprises and budget users at the end of 2004 was 589.2 million € while at the same time 502,4 million € was withdrawn. The difference in the amount of 86.8 million € represents already contracted funds to be withdrawn during the subsequent period. Table 2-3. Structure and schedule of public debt of Montenegro 2002-2004 – with guarantees for foreign credits Year Domesti debt 1 2 Foreign Withdrawn debtamount of guarantees foreign debt Public Debt (2+4) 2002 2003 2004 255.6 249.7 254.1 3 941.2 539.2 589.2 4 5 893.6 472.4 502.4 1,149.2 722.1 756.5 Source: Ministry of Finance Total public debt with included public enterprises’ liabilities amounts to 756.5million € which is for 14.1 million € higher in comparison to public debt calculated according to Maastricht criteria. 9 PART II: NEW DEBT STRATEGY 2005-2007 3. PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICY GUIDELINES Based on analyses of data on debt of Montenegro it can be concluded that domestic debt is significantly smaller than foreign debt (domestic: 254.1 million EUR and foreign: 488.3 million EUR). However, the structure of domestic debt is showing significant participation of T-bills and bank loans, which are extremely expensive forms of financing. Average interest rate on T-bills for 2004 was about 9%, while effective interest rate on bank loans was 14-30%. Budget arrears in the amount of 61.8 million EUR do not have interest-bearing costs, but they are an obstacle to activities taking place in the line: budget – economy – citizens. The objective of debt management policy is, among other things, to set guidelines for elimination of the most risk-bearing categories of domestic debt – T-bills and bank loans as an obstacle to further growth of capital budget investments and long-term sustainability of the budget in the environment of growth of investments. Reorganization of T-bills Issuance T-bill issuance program started in 2001 for the purpose of overcoming seasonal budget illiquidity. However, due to absence of alternative funding sources, T-bills became a continuing and very expensive form for covering budget deficit. High interest rate – about 9% – and short maturity from 28 to 182 days, which exposes the budget to significant risk from the aspect of liquidity, indicate the necessity for elimination of the current manner of issuing T-bills. By the end of 2005 these liabilities shall be brought to minimum amount. The source of funds for coverage of these liabilities shall be from the privatization receipts. By bringing such a form of indebting to minimum, significant savings in the State Budget would be realized. According to current analyses of the market and according to credit rating of Montenegro (BB), determined by foreign agency Standard & Poors, the assessment is that Montenegro could take long-term debt in the international capital market at the rate below 6% by issuing mid-term bonds. Funding based on project principle is even more favorable. Financial conditions with European Investment Bank on long-term loans – 15 years, amount to Euribor + 0,45 – 0,60% while with European Bank for Reconstruction and Development interest rate equals to Euribor + 1%. Repayment of Bank Loans Domestic bank loans are the most expensive form of budget financing. For that reason, the plan is to repay the whole amount of domestic loans to commercial banks and other institutions by the end of 2005, according to the schedule of maturity of loans. The source for covering these liabilities shall be the receipts from privatization. 10 Repayment of Budget Arrears Arrears of the Budget, which amounted to 61,8 million EUR at the end of 2004 shall be repaid during the following years according to the possibilities within the planned budget deficit while new liabilities won’t be accumulated. The source shall be the receipts from privatization and higher realization of budget revenues. The repayment projection of these liabilities is very conservative and significantly lower level is expected at the end of 2005. Establishment of key debt indicators as guidelines for debt and liquidity management Key indicators are: 1. Total debt in comparison to budget revenues 2. Paid interest in comparison to budget revenues 3. Total debt servicing (paid part of the principle and interest) in comparison to budget revenues 4. Total debt in comparison to gross domestic product Investment in infrastructure shall increase in accordance with established limits Successful application of debt management policy shall establish conservative and long-term sustainable debt position. Owing to that, permanent increase of investments in the infrastructure based on Government priorities shall be possible. In case of elimination of most risk-bearing categories of domestic shortterm debt, moderate increase of fiscal deficit shall not threaten macroeconomic stability or significantly expose the State to potential economic shocks. Basic budget7 shall remain balanced Planned increase of expenditures for capital investments during the following three-year period, and repayment of the budget arrears shall not increase the planned consolidated fiscal deficit. It is planned that in 2005 consolidated deficit should amount 2.99%, 3.00% in 2006 and 2.97% of GDP in 2007. As to maintain the established limits of key debt indicators, the basic budget must be balanced. Deficit projections may vary depending on final projections of the Budget Law for 2006 and 2007. Reserves for capital investments and preparation of capital budget Reserves for capital investments shall be formed as to provide adequate funding for capital programs envisaged by the budget and avoid over-exposure to market movements. Development of capital budget, which has already started, shall enable better planning of expenditures for capital investments and preparation of the strategy for funding projects. 7 Basic budget comprises current revenues and current expenditures, without specific revenues and expenses that occur only in some years (repayment of arrears of the budget, additional investment in infrastructure – over the planned level...) 11 4. ANALYSES AND PROJECTIONS OF DEBT INDICATORS MOVEMENTS The following Table (Table 4-1) indicates the projections of key debt indicators taking in consideration the guidelines of debt management policy and the latest projections of mid-term fiscal indicators. The meanings of specific items from the Table are as follows: a. Deficit of basic budget indicates fiscal balance excluding repayment of debt, repayment of interest and repayment of arrears of the budget; b. Primary balance is budget deficit without interest costs; c. Gross funding requirements including budget deficit and repayment of debt less donations; d. This category indicates planned scope of receipts from privatization to be used for reduction of domestic commercial debt –bank loans and T-bills, and partly for budget arrears8; e. Projections of GDP amount for the period 2005 – 2007 have been undertaken from the Economic Reform Agenda in Montenegro 2002-2007; f. Envisaged withdrawals based on previously signed loans. g. Indicates amount of new debt required for balancing data based on these assumptions, without specifically stating the sources of funds. It has been calculated as difference between gross funding requirements and withdrawal based on already signed loans; h. Cumulative new debt for three-year period. Projection of consolidated budget deficit is planned to be 4.13% to 3% on annual level in the period 2005-2007. 8 Given is a very conservative projection of the repayment of debt in respect of budget arrears. This amount is expected to be significantly lower in the period 2005-2007 and possibly completely eliminated. 12 Table 4-1. Schedule of movements of debt of Montenegro Revenues 2004 2006 2007 2005 Plan Realization Projection Projection Total revenues 372.78 435.46 455.26 474.80 Expenditures Salaries and other income Material and services Transfers Subsidies Other expenditures and reserves Expenses for capital investments/programs Given loans (a) Basic budget deficit Activated guarantees Rapayment of budget arrears 164.38 46.90 103.78 8.48 23.93 12.65 7.18 5.48 10.61 0.00 172.35 62.26 141.67 6.28 15.22 36.22 7.82 -6.36 4.00 0.00 192.50 60.20 138.26 6.00 14.90 35.74 4.00 3.66 0.50 5.00 192.50 68.00 140.00 8.00 11.00 43.50 4.00 7.80 0.50 0.00 0.00 -5.13 24.03 -29.16 -1.90% 23.50 -33.86 15.27 -49.13 -2.99% 30.00 -31.84 21.00 -52.84 -3.00% 42.00 -34.70 21.00 -55.70 -2.97% 6.02 6.95 28.23 2.65 8.70 3.69 56.79 6.98 8.70 0.00 68.52 9.35 8.70 0.00 73.75 3.54 46.30 5.00 0.00 6.45% 8.06% 48.36% 1535.0 199.15% 742.4 254.1 8.90 37.40 123.00 23.00 61.80 488.3 488.3 488.3 3.51% 6.11% 45.09% 1644.0 170.23% 741.28 198.84 0.00 0.00 117.04 20.00 61.80 542.44 509.15 485.65 4.61% 8.06% 43.27% 1759.0 167.18% 761.12 183.14 0.00 0.00 108.34 18.00 56.80 577.98 506.17 452.67 26.00 30.00 53.50 38.52 71.81 4.42% 8.22% 43.50% 1873.3 171.61% 814.82 172.44 0.00 0.00 99.64 16.00 56.80 642.38 538.82 443.32 Additional expenses for capital investments (b) Primary balance Payment of interest Deficit Deficit/GDP Matured liabilities in respect of foreign debt Payment of foreign frozen savings Deduction in the amount of donations (c) Gross funding requirements (d) Used revenues from privatization Payment of interest/revenues Total costs of servicing debt/Revenues Debt/GDP (e) GDP Debt/Revenues Total debt Domestic debt Loans T-bills Old foreign frozen savings Local Selfgovernment Debt Budget Arrears Foreign Debt Foreign debt (net amount) Foreign debt (current) Written off debt to Paris Club (f) Foreign debt by projects Cumulative amount of foreign debt by proje. (g) Net debt requirements (h) Cumulative amount of new debt 23.50 23.50 33.29 33.29 42.00 95.50 31.75 103.56 I Source: Ministry of Finance 13 Total debt/Gross Domestic Product This indicator is considered to be the most important indicator of debt sustainability. Total debt comprises the debt of the State, municipalities and extra-budgetary funds, and includes guarantees for which there is an assumption that they shall be activated. Previously mentioned were the guarantees in question. According to Maastricht criterion, total debt must not exceed 60% of GDP. As shown in the Table, this indicator is far below the upper limit of 60%. Although it is difficult to do a direct comparison, according to data of rating agency Fitch, total debt to GDP for 2004 amounted to 51.8% for countries with credit rating BB. In case of Montenegro reliance on this indicator may be problematic due to insufficiently diversified export. Total debt/Budget revenues This indicator may be more reliable in case of Montenegro than is the case with the previous indicator. As in the case of previous indicator Montenegro is currently in a favorable position and the value of the indicator is lower than average value for the countries with the rating BB (which amounted to 256.1% in 2003)9. Interest costs/Budget revenues This indicator is useful to measure the impact of debt servicing on budget. The value of the indicator for Montenegro is favorable due to concessional conditions of foreign loans. Restructuring of debt portfolio and abolishment of expensive domestic indebtedness should contribute to improvement of the value of this indicator in future. Total debt servicing/Budget revenues This indicator includes repayment of debt principle and may be useful for pointing out the potential problems due to large amounts of debt repayments. In case of Montenegro the debt repayment schedule is relatively favorable, so this indicator is not of crucial significance. However, since the Strategy is going to deal with various funding sources this indicator shall be important in future. Rating agencies usually use this indicator in comparison with export not in comparison with budget revenues. In case of Montenegro there is a dominant role of aluminum in export and due to that reason this indicator may be subject to changes caused by activities of only one economic sector. 9 The latest data of Fitch Agency refer to 2003 14 5. PROJECT ACTIVITIES 5.1. REVIEW OF CURRENT INVESTMENT PROJECTS This part which is dealing with analyses of the current and potential investment activities shall also include the public enterprises which are the end users of the loans, but that amount is not included in the calculation of the public debt. Intensive indebtedness of Montenegro with foreign creditors, mainly for infrastructure projects, started in 2000. At the end of 2004 main creditors were: European Investment Bank, European Bank for Restructure and Development, German Credit Bank for Restructure and Development and IDA, World Bank branch. Total amount of approved and withdrawn project loans as of the end of 2004 can be seen in the following Table. Table 5-1: Review of current investment projects as of 31/12/04 EURO (million) Contracted amount Creditor World Bank (IDA) Withdrawn amount 10.6 1. Stabilization in supplying electric power 4.6 2. Protection of surrpundings of coastal area 6.0 European Investment Bank (EIB) Remaining amount 1.3 0.9 0.4 78.0 9.3 3.7 5.6 32.5 45.5 1. Urgent rehabitalization of traffic 16.0 13.0 3.0 Port of Bar 6.0 6.0 0.0 Rehabilitation of roads 10.0 7.0 3.0 2. Project of European roads - Sozina Tunnel 24.0 9.3 14.7 3. Modernization of airports in Montenegro 12.0 0.0 12.0 4. Reconstruction of railways in Montenegro 15.0 7.0 8.0 5. Reconstruction of electric power industry 11.0 3.2 7.8 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) 14.0 3.0 11.0 1. Modernization of airports in Montenegro 11.0 1.7 9.3 2. Advisor for sale of KAP 3.0 1.3 1.7 Credit Bank for Reconstructure - Germany (KFW) 8.7 4.9 3.8 1. Improvement of watersupply for coastal area and Cetinje 5.1 4.9 0.2 2. Reconstruction of electric power plant Perućica 3.6 0.0 3.6 TOTAL 111.3 41.7 69.6 Source: Ministry of Finance Out of total contracted amount of 111,3 mil.€ loans realized has been 41,7 million, and 69,6 mil.€ is still to be withdrawn. The major part of those funds shall be withdrawn during 2005-2006. 15 5.1.1. WORLD BANK – IDA (International Development Agency) In 2002 and 2003 Montenegro contracted 10,6 mil.€ in special withdrawal rights (SWR) with the World Bank, i.e. its affiliate IDA – International Development Agency: Ministry of Economy 1. Project of stabilization in supply of electric power (Emergency Stabilization of Electricity Supply Project), in the amount of 4,56 mil.€ out of which 0,9 mil.€ has been withdrawn. Ministry of Environment and Urban Development 1. Project for protection of surroundings of coastal area in Montenegro (Montenegro Environmentally Sensitive Tourist Areas Project – MESTAP) in the amount of 5,6 mil.€ – 0,4 mil.€ withdrawn. In addition to the mentioned project credits, the Government of Montenegro is the user of program IDA credits, which in accordance with law are not constituent part of the analysis in this Strategy. Program IDA credits are: Project of Health Protection Improvement in Montenegro - approved 4,9 million SDR, Project of Pension Administration Improvement in Montenengro - approved 3,5 million SDR, Project of Education System Reform in Montenegro – approved 3,3 million SDR. In addition to these, Montenegro is the user of loans for structural adjustment (SAC) as a mechanism for direct support to the Budget of the Republic. Montenegro used all of the funds in respect of SAC I in the amount of 11,9 million SDR in 2003 and 2004. Montenegro used the first installment SAC II in the amount of 6,15 million SDR at the end of 2004. Withdrawal of the second installment in the same amount is expected by the end of 2005 upon the fulfillment of specific conditions by the Government of Montenegro (privatization of Podgorička Bank, acceptance of Montenegro in Egmont Group and resolution of property taken over from privatization of Montenegrobank a.d. Podgorica – as key conditions). 5.1.2. EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK During 2001-2002 Montenegro contracted funding infrastructure projects with European Investment Bank: of a few different Ministry of Transport 1. Urgent Transport Rehabilitation in the amount of 16 mil.€. This credit is intended for rehabilitation, reconstruction, dislocation of the (road) route, protection of slides, stabilization of slopes and widening of of road sections in the amount of 10 mil.€ and reconstruction of the main watershed of 16 Port of Bar in the amount of 6 mil.€. Port of Bar withdrew total amount of 6 mil.€ while for the other project withdrawn was 7 mil.€. in total. 2. Railways Rehabilitation in the amount of 15 mil.€ – withdrawn 7 mil.€ 3. During 2004 Montenegro signed the Contract on the credit for airports modernization with EIB in the amount of 12 mil.€ and hasn't withdrawn any funds in that respect yet. 4. During 2004 signed was the contract for funding the project European Roads, i.e. for construction of Sozina Tunnel, in the amount of 24 mil.€. Withdrawn 9,3 mil.€ Ministry of Economy 1. Power Sector Reconstruction in the amount of 11 mil.€. Withdrawn 3,2 mil.€. 5.1.3. EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT Montenegro signed 2 credits with European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in 2004: Ministry of Transport 1. Contract on the credit intended for modernization of airports in Podgorica and Tivat in the total amount of 11 mil.€ – withdrawn 1,7 mil.€. Ministry of Economy / Agency for Reconstruction of Economy and Foreign Investments 1. Contract on pre-privatization loan for Aluminum Company intended for costs of advisers for privatization, in the amount of 3 mil.€ – withdrawn 1,3 mil.€. 5.1.4. GERMAN CREDIT DEVELOPMENT BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND With this bank two credit arrangements were signed. Ministry of Economy 1. Contract related to reconstruction of hydro electric power plant Perućica in the amount of 3,6 mil.€, was signed in 2003 and there haven't been any withdrawals yet. Ministry of Environment and Urban Development 1. Project of improvement of water supply for Montenegrin coast and Cetinje in the amount of 5,1 million € (10 mil DEM) was signed in 2000 and until the end of 2004 4,9 mil.€ was signed. 17 5.2. FUTURE INVESTMENT PROJECTS Based on analyses given in the Table 4-1 sustainable level of new debt for the purpose of funding capital investments is 23.5 mil € for 2005, 30 mill. € for 2006 and 42 million € for 2007. However, there are restrictions by IMF with regard to total amount of indebtedness, including public enterprises, the details of which shall be further elaborated below. Negotiations are in process with a few international financial institutions for the purpose of facilitating credits. In addition to these institutions, negotiations are in process with governments of the Republic of Poland and Republic of Hungary. 5.2.1. EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK European Investment Bank provides possibilities for credit arrangements to be signed in more than one project given the restrictions imposed to Montenegro by IMF arrangement. Ministry of Transport 1. Ministry of Transport, for the purpose of repairing the status of road network, which primarily refers to the halt of rapid deterioration of roads on specific sections, is negotiating with EIB a credit in the amount of 23,00 mil €, intended for remaining investment maintenance. The credit for investment maintenance would be realized during 2005 and 2006. Signing and withdrawing of specific projects may take place from 2006 to 2009. 2. For completion of the Vrmac Tunnel, negotiations are in process for a credit in the amount of 5,00 mil €. Signing and withdrawing of specific projects may take place from 2006 to 2009. 3. For infrastructure projects at the level of local self-governments in Montenegro in the amount of 11mil.€. Signing and withdrawing of specific projects may take place from 2006 to 2009. 4. For rehabilitation of railway infrastructure, negotiations are in process with EIB on the possibility of getting the credit in the amount of 28,90 mil €. The loan would be used to fund: - building infrastructure, in the amount of 22.87 mil €, - electric devices and plants, in the amount of 5.36 mil €, - information system, in the amount of 0.68 mil €. 5. For procurement of vehicles for the needs of railway traffic, negotiations are in process for realization of the credit in the amount of 12,40 mil €. The loan would be used to fund: - train-2 units, in the amount of 7.60 mil €, - freight train - 45 units, in the amount of 3.60 mil € and - supporting scraper - 1 workshop, in the amount of 1.20 mil €. 18 6. Credit for modernization of flight control between Serbia and Montenegro which borrower is Agency for flight control between Serbia and Montenegro. The credit was signed in the second quarter of 2005 in the amount of 36 mil € out of which 8% of the guarantee refers to Montenegro according to participation in initial capital of the Agency or 2.88 mil €. 7. Project of mini ring road around Podgorica, which preliminary assessed value is 20 million €. Deputy Prime Minister Cabinet for Economic Policy and Economic Development 1. Credit for projects referring to small and medium size enterprises, in the amount of 20,00 mil €. The funds, in addition to financing projects from the area of small and medium size enterprises –15 mil. €, are also intended for funding small infrastructure projects in municipalities – 5 mil.€. Ministry of Environment and Urban Development 1. Adaptation of the current plant for purification of waste waters in Nikšić. This investment refers to equipping and reconstruction of the current building facilities with machine and electric equipment. The value of the investment amounts around 4,54 mil €. In addition to EIB, the Project was presented to the Government of Germany, Government of Spain and Government of the Kingdom of Norway. 2. The project for regulation of waste water system and improvement of water supply in Montenegro which preliminary assessed value is 57 million € based on envisaged investments in phase I of the Master Plan for regulation of waste waters in Montenegro. Signing and withdrawing of specific projects may take place by 2010. 5.2.2. EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT Ministry of Transport 1. Project of Reconstruction of regional roads in Montenegro (Road M-2 Mioska –Kolašin and Road M-3 Cetinje-Budva), in the amount of 11,50 mil €. In London, on 11th and 12th April 2005 with EBRD representatives held were the negotiations on the loan for realization of this project. Authorized members of delegations from Montenegro and EBRD signed the the Agreement on the loan on 15th July 2005 in Podgorica. 2. Loan for modernization of flight control between Serbia and Montenegro which borrower is the Agency for flight control between Serbia and Montenegro. The loan was signed in the second quarter of 2005 in the amount of 33,5 mil € out of which 8% of the guarantee refers to Montenegro according to participation in initial capital of the Agency or 2,68 mil €. 19 3. Project for Development of infrastructure in Herceg Novi municipality, in the amount of 2,00 mil €. Ministry of Environment and Urban Development 1. Project of waste waters management in the coastal area of the Republic of Montenegro, in the amount of 10,00 mil.€. DEVELOPMENT BANK OF THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL Ministry of Environment and Urban Development 1. With the Development Bank of the European Council considered is the possibility of getting a loan for realization of the Project «2000 solidarity apartments«. The funds would be withdrawn in the period 2005-2008. The Action Plan envisages total investment of 50 mil.€, where local selfgovernments would participate with 15 mil.€ for land and infrastructure, while 35 mil.€ would be the credit debt. 5.2.3. GERMAN CREDIT DEVELOPMENT BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND Deputy Prime Minister Cabinet for Economic Policy and Economic Development 1. Credit for water supply improvement in Montenegrin coastal area and Cetinje in the amount of 10,00 mil.€. The loan is envisaged as a continuation of funding of improvement of water-supply of Montenegrin coastal area and Cetinje which commenced in 2000. The first loan from KFW in the amount of 5.1 mil. € is almost fully used. 5.2.4. OTHER PROJECTS Ministry of Environment and Urban Development 1. Reconstruction of devices for purification of waste waters in Podgorica. Realization of this project is planned in phases. According to data from the Ministry of Environment and Urban Development, there is a realistic possibility for the first phase, which refers to reconstruction of the old plant in Podgorica, to be realized during 2005 by the funds of the loan, in the value of approximately 1.30 mil.€, within PEIP Program (Priprity Environmental Reconstruction Program), which is implemented by REC (Regional Environment Center for Central and Eastern Europe) and for which some of the members of ISG (Infrastuctor Stering Group), such as WB, EBRD, EIB, European Commission, will provide funds at more favorable conditions. 2. Connection of wastewaters of the hotel complex Velika plaža to sewage system –Ulcinj. The Project is in accordance with the master plan for drainage and purification of wastewaters of Montenegrin coastal area and 20 Cetinje municipality. The value of the investment is assessed to be about 240.000 €. 3. Rehabilitation of Pump Station Port Milena –Ulcinj. The value of the investment is assessed to be 452.000 €. Both projects, which refer to Ulcinj municipality, were presented for realization within activities of the Business Council of the Government of Germany and Council of Ministers of Serbia and Montenegro, Canadian Embassy, ”Plane Station Group” from Great Britain. 4. Construction of recycle center for Podgorica waste area »Livade«. The value of the investment is assessed to be 5.00 mil.€. Funds for realization of this project are provided by the loan approved by the Government of the Kingdom of Spain to Serbia and Montenegro. 5. Development of feasibility study for regional sanitary waste area for 4 locations, as well as for location of waste area for dangerous substances. It is assessed that for development of the mentioned study, it will be necessary to provide funds in the amount of 1.00 mil.€. Ministry of Transport/ Ministry of Agriculture, Water Supply and Forestry 1. Reconstruction of railway infrastructure and procurement of agricultural machines and equipment. The amount of 6 mil.€ is committed for each ministry. It is a commodity loan of the Government of the Republic of Poland under extremely favorable conditions – interest rate of 0,70% and repayment period is 15 years. Signing of the contract is planned during 2005. Ministry of Education 1. Negotiations with the Government of the Republic of Hungary with regard to the loan for building of a primary school is in process. Signing is expected during 2005. Planned amount of the loan is 15 mil. € 21 5.2.5. RECAPITULATION Table 5-2: Indicated funding requirements for investments of public sector subjects in Montenegro for the period 2005-2007 EURO (million) Creditor European Investment Bank 177.30 1. Modernization of flight control in S&CG 2.80 2. Outstanding investment maintenance 23.00 3. Reconstruction of Vrmac Tunnel 5.00 4. Infrastructure projects at local self-gov. level 11.00 5. Water supply and waste waters regulation 57.00 6. Railway infrastructure reconstruction 28.90 7. Vehicle stock - JP Željeznica CG 12.40 8. Mini ring road around Podgorica 20.00 9. Credit line for SME and local infrastructure 20.00 European Bank for reconstruction and development 26.18 1. Reconstruction of regional roads 11.50 2. Improvement of infrastructure in Herceg Novi 2.00 3. Regulation of waste waters on the coast 10.00 4. Modernization of flight control in S&CG 2.68 World Bank 1. Project for watersupply of the coast 17.00 17.00 Credit Bank for Reconstruction – Germany 1. Improvement of watersupply on the coast 10.00 10.00 Development Bank of the European Council 1. Project "2000 solidarity apartments" 35.00 35.00 Other 34.99 1. Regulation of waste waters - Podgorica 1.30 2. Regulation of waste waters - Ulcinj 0.24 3. Construction of pump station Port Milena - Ulcinj 0.45 4. Recycle center "Livade" Podgorica 5.00 5. Feasibility study - regional waste areas 1.00 7. Railway and agriculture - Polish loan 12.00 8. Building of schools - Hungarian loan 15.00 TOTAL 300.47 Source: Responsible Ministries of the Government of Montenegro In the Table 5-2 given is the summary review of investment proposals forwarded to the Ministry of Finance for consideration and further procedures. 22 5.3. INVESTMENT PROJECTS OF PUBLIC SECTOR FOR THE PERIOD 2005-2007 The previous section indicates the potential investment projects of the public sector for the period 2005-2007 which have been submitted to a specific department in the Ministry of Finance, as envisaged in the Law. In accordance with the International Monetary Fund, loans from European Investment Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development belong to the nonconcessional category, while the annual limit of commercial loans for Montenegro amounts to 32 mil.$. That is the amount for which Montenegro issues sovereign guarantees for commercial creditors regardless whether they are public or private enterprises or budget users. On the other hand, the scope of debt in respect of concessional conditions is not limited. Limits refer to the capability of the state budget to regularly service the maturing liabilities in respect of those loans. The limits are given in Table 4-1 under the item additional expenditures for capital investments. . In the Table 5-3 given is the review of investment projects of public sector subjects in Montenegro to be financed during 2005-2007. Detailed explanations of proposed projects are given in the section 5.2. Selection of projects for 2005 is based on the following criteria: - projects for which the negotiations started in the previous period: project of Modernization of flight control with EIB and EBRD, Project of building schools with the Government of the Republic of Hungary. - projects which are realized under extremely favorable financial conditions: Project of Modernization of equipment for Railway Company of Montenegro and procurement of equipment for agro-industry in Montenegro - commodity loan from the Government of the Republic of Poland. - projects of Emergency resolution of road infrastructure in the Republic: ProjectReconstruction of Regional Roads with EBRD, project of Reconstruction of the Vrmac Tunnel with EIB, project Outstanding investment maintenance with EIB. - projects of emergency resolution of infrastructure problems on the territory of municipalities: project of Municipal infrastructure with EIB, project of regulation of wastewaters in Montenegro and project of Construction of recycle center Livade in Podgorica. Table 5-3: Review of investment projects of public sector subjects in Montenegro to be financed during the period 2005-2007 23 EURO (million) Creditor annual debt limit - non-concession difference (debt limit - debt) T O T A L NON-CONCESSIONAL European Investment Bank Total 206.28 180.10 Approved indebtedness amount 2005 26.5 9.52 16.98 2.80 2006 26.5 26.50 0.00 0.00 2007 26.5 26.50 0.00 0.00 Remaining 189.30 177.30 1. Modernization of flight control in S&CG 2.80 2. Outstanding investment maintenance 23.00 3. Reconstruction of Vrmac Tunnel 5.00 5.00 4. Infrastructure projects at local self-gov. level 11.00 11.00 5. Water supply and waste waters regulation 57.00 57.00 6. Railway infrastructure reconstruction 28.90 28.90 7. Vehicle stock - JP Željeznica CG 12.40 12.40 8. Mini ring road around Podgorica 20.00 20.00 9. Credit line for SME and local infrastructure 20.00 20.00 1. Reconstruction of regional roads 11.50 2. Improvement of infrastructure in Herceg Novi 2.00 2.00 3. Regulation of waste waters on the coast 10.00 10.00 4. Modernization of flight control in S&CG 2.68 2.80 0.00 1. Project for watersupply of the coast 14.18 11.50 0.00 0.00 2.68 96.99 17.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 91.99 17.00 17.00 Credit Bank for Reconstruction 17.00 10.00 1. Improvement of watersupply on the coast 10.00 1. Project "2000 solidarity apartments" 35.00 Development Bank of the European Council 0.00 23.00 European Bank for reconstruction and development 26.18 T O T A L CONCESSIONAL World Bank 0.00 10.00 10.00 35.00 Other 35.00 35.00 34.99 5.00 0.00 0.00 29.99 1. Regulation of waste waters - Podgorica 2. Regulation of waste waters - Ulcinj 1.30 1.30 0.24 0.24 3. Construction of pump station Port Milena - Ulcinj 0.45 4. Recycle center "Livade" Podgorica 5.00 5. Feasibility study - regional waste areas 1.00 1.00 7. Railway and agriculture - Polish loan 12.00 12.00 8. Building of schools - Hungarian loan 15.00 TOTAL 0.45 5.00 303.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.00 21.98 0.00 0.00 281.29 Table 5-4 indicates the plan of withdrawal of credit funds for the period 20052007 for users who according to Maastricht criterion are to be included in the 24 calculation of the public debt (without public enterprises). According to the projections of the Ministry of Finance, with keeping the consolidated budget deficit on 3,0% for the planned period, the upper limit of withdrawal of funds for the amounts of the projects: 23,5 mil. € in 2005, 30,0 mil.€ in 2006 and 42,0 mil.€ in 2007. Priority in withdrawal belongs to already signed loans since, inter alia, there is specified contract liability of withdrawal of funds by a certain deadline. During 2005 most withdrawals shall be in respect of EIB loans for construction of Sozina Tunnel – 14.7 mil.€. EBRD funds shall be spent for reconstruction of regional roads - Obzovica project - 2,8 mil.€. According to the project of the World Bank – for protection of surroundings of the coastal area 1 mil.€. shall be withdrawn. For 2006 continued shall be withdrawals from EBRD for reconstruction of regional roads - project Mioska - Kolašin - 4 mil.€. Continued shall be withdrawals in respect of the World Bank loan: protection of the surrounding of the coastal area 1 mil.€. For the construction of recycle center Livade in Podgorica 1 mil.€ shall be withdrawn. For 2007 envisaged is the completion of withdrawing funds from EIB for reconstruction of regional roads - project Mioska - Kolašin - 4,7 mil.€. Withdrawals shall continue for the World Bank loan: protection of surrounding of coastal area 1 mil.€ respectively. For construction of recycle center Livade in Podgorica 2 mil.€. shall be withdrawn. 25 Table 5-4: Withdrawal Plan of project loans in the period 2005-2007 EURO (million) creditor Annual borrowing limit - total Difference (withdrawn - approved) TOTAL NON-CONCESSIONAL European Investment Bank Remaini ng amount 186.10 162.60 Rehabilitation of roads network Plan of annual withdrawal of funds Other 2005 2006 2007 23.50 -2.00 20.50 17.70 42.00 -36.30 4.70 0.00 30.00 -25.00 4.00 0.00 145.90 133.90 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Project of European roads – Sozina Tunnel 14.70 14.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 Outstanding investment maintenance 23.00 23.00 5.00 5.00 Reconstruction of Vrmac Tunnel Infrastructure projects at local self-gov. level 11.00 Reconstruction of railway infrastructure 28.90 28.90 Regulation of waste water system 57.00 57.00 Mini ring road around Podgorica 20.00 20.00 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 23.50 Reconstruction of regional roads 11.50 2.80 Improvement of infrastructure in Herceg Novi 4.70 85.59 22.60 Protection of surroundings of the coastal area 5.60 Project of watersupply of the coastal area 17.00 Credit Bank for Reconstruction 2.00 10.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 10.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 35.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.99 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 35.00 Other 82.59 19.60 2.60 10.00 European Council Bank for Development 12.00 0.00 10.00 TOTAL CONCESSIONAL World Bank Project "2000 solidarity apartments " 4.00 4.70 2.00 Regulation of waste waters on the coast Improvement of water supply on the coast 2.80 4.00 35.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.99 Recycle center "Livade" Podgorica 5.00 Regulation of waste waters - Ulcinj 0.24 0.24 Construction of pump station Port Milena - Ulcinj 0.45 0.45 Regulation of waste waters - Podgorica 1.30 1.30 Feasibility study – regional waste areas 1.00 1.00 Building of schools – Hungarian loan 15.00 TOTAL 271.69 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 15.00 21.50 5.00 5.70 228.49 Note: Italic indicates projects for which the loan contracts haven't been signed yet 26 6. C O N C L U S I O N Based on the submitted proposal of the Debt Strategy of Montenegro by the Debt Committee, the Government of the Republic of Montenegro adopted the following conclusions: 1. Adopted is the Debt Strategy of Montenegro for the period 2005-2007. 2. Ministry of Finance is obliged, based on this Strategy to develop State Borrowing Program that will be a constituent part of the Budget Law for 2006 and 2007. 3. Ministry of Finance is obliged to take debt once a year, during three-year plan period, and to review the planned projects and inform the Government on the process of realization of projects. 4. Ministry of Finance is obliged to continue with institutional fostering of the sector for debt management in personnel, technical and organizational respect. 5. Responsible Ministries are obliged to direct to the Ministry of Finance, according to the Law on indebtedness and public sector administration, all the proposals in respect of future debt and withdrawal of funds of already approved loans, and MF is according to the Law responsible to participate in all activities of coordinating, contracting and formalizing any new debt of the State and monitor dynamics of withdrawal of funds in respect of already approved loans. 6. Responsible ministries are obliged to provide the list of projects planned for the following three-year period to the Ministry of Finance including 30th September of each current year, i.e. by the end of 3rd quarter of the year preceding the planned three-year period. After this period, the Ministry of Finance is not responsible to take any project proposals for consideration. 27