Download Platform on long-term measures against global warming

Thinking About Japan’s
Energy & Environmental Policy
Sumiko Takeuchi
International Environment and Economy Institute (IEEI), Director & Senior Fellow
The 21st Century Public Policy Institute (21PPI), Deputy Project Leader
University of Tsukuba, Visiting Professor
The basics, and current situation,
of Japan's energy policy
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Picture of Japan’s Power Generation Capacity Post 3/11
 Only 3 nuclear power plants in operation → About 30% power generation capacity lost.
 Excluding hydroelectric power, renewable energy in 2015 accounted for 4.7%, a sharp
increase of 3.2% from the previous year.（2013：2.6％→2014：3.2％→2015：4.7%）
 Fossil-fuel power plants replaced nuclear generation → Fossil Fuel Power accounts for 90% of
power generation.
Transition of power generation sources following 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami
(general and wholesale power generation; ratio of power generation)
100%
9%
90%
9%
80%
79%
12%
70%
60%
30%
16%
32%
32%
88%
13%
6% 94%
Fossil %
17%
Nuclear
Hydro
8%
60%
5%
Oil etc.
50%
40%
89%
9%
43%
48%
46%
49%
LNG
Coal
Nuclear %
20%
10%
23%
12%
23%
0%
2010年度
2010
2011年度
2011
25%
2%
2012年度
2012
30%
2%
2013年8月
2013 Aug.
29%
0%
2014 Jan.
2014年1月
Source: author’s power industry surveys and interviews.
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Changes since Fukushima
ITEM
Energy self-sufficiency
BACKGROUND
NOTES
In 2012, self-sufficiency was the lowest level
amongst developed countries.
20％ ⇒ 6%
Fossil fuel dependency rate 60% ⇒ 90%
Deviation of resourceDependent on 83% oil and 29% LNG
supplying countries
from Middle East countries.
Imported fuel costs
Estimate of thermal power generation with nuclear
power plants stopped.
Cost of power generation
apprx 3.6 trillion yen increase (10
billion yen/day, 100,000 yen/second)
In 2015, approx 2.3 trillion yen
increase.
Approximate 10% rise
Real GDP
Reduction of 0.39 to 0.60%
Electric bill
About 20% rise for the home
From “The Cost of Power Generation in Japan’s
Economy 2011-2012“, Japan Government Cabinet
Office estimates.
About 30%.rise for the Industries
Inter-regional energy gap
US natural gas prices are 1/3 of
Europe’s, and 1/5 of Japan’s
Greenhouse gas emissions
83 million tons increase
Replacing all of Japan’s thermal power plants with
nuclear power – from "Japan's Economy 2011-2012“,
Japan Government Cabinet Office estimates.
If the October 2013 time → continued energyintensive industries date, lose the export share of
one-third to match EU (IEA estimate)
Value obtained by comparing general electricity
utilities 29 million tons reduction with general
electric utilities 112 million ton increase (fiscal 2012
CO2 emissions compared to 2010).
Source: Material based on Japan’s government Basic Energy Plan.
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Self-Sufficiency Ratio of Primary Energy in Major Countries
 Each
country has worked to improve its self-sufficiency ratio since the oil crisis experienced in
the 1970’s-80’s.
 England became an oil exporter in the 1980’s following the development of the North Sea oil
and gas, but recently its self sufficiency ratio is declining due to reductions in production.
 Ever since the oil crisis, France has improved and maintained its energy self-sufficiency ratio by
promoting nuclear power generation.
 Although the U.S. experienced a decline in energy self-sufficiency and increased dependency
on imported oil from the 1980’s, the figures are now improving due to shale gas production.
Source:
Material by Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry
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Soaring Price of Electricity


Since 2011, electricity prices for industry and household have increased by 40% and 25%,
respectively at 2013.
Since SMEs and very small businesses cannot pass along the increase in the price of electricity,
businesses are closing and bankruptcies have arisen.
Industrial
Sector
Casting
Forging
‘Voices from Industry’
(Points taken from results of The Japan
Chamber of Commerce and Industry survey)
• 80% of SMEs affected
• Accelerated bankruptcies & business
foreclosures
(12 companies in 2012, 14 companies in
2013)
• More than 90% of SMEs affected
• Companies increasingly resorting to layoffs,
salary and headcount reductions as means
of reducing labor costs in order to deal with
increasing electricity costs.
• Most are very small businesses, or
microbusinesses with an average of 26
Metal Heat
employees.
Treating
• Two companies at the end of last year and
one company this spring have closed their
factories or divisions.
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Increasing CO2 Emissions from Power Sector
 Total emissions of FY 2015 (preliminary figures) were 1,321 million tons (-3.0% compared
with the previous year, 6.0% compared to 2013, -5.2% compared to 2005)
 Improvement of basic unit due to progress in energy conservation, restart of nuclear power
plant in Kagoshima prefecture (2015)
 Energy-related CO2 emissions peak in 2013.
t
3% decrease
over the
previous year
(QE)
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Our Future Energy Policy
Toward Global Warming
8
4th Strategic Energy Plan (April 2014)
Energy Security (Stable Supply)
 3E+S
Economic Efficiency (Cost Reduction)
Environment
Safety
Global Perspective
+
 Multilayered, Diversified and Flexible Energy Demand
Economic Growth
Supply Structure
 Each energy source should exert its advantage and complement others’
drawback
 Various players can participate and various alternatives are prepared
 Self-sufficiency should be improved by developing domestic resources.
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Japan’s Electricity Demand and Power Supply 2030
Energy Demand
Energy savings
1,961 billion kWh est.
Power generation
total
12,780 billion kWh est.
(17% reduction compared
Includes
to previous policy)
transmission loss
Economic growth
1.7% / year
Power
generation
9,666 billion
kWh
2013 actual
Energy savings
+
Renewable energy
40%
Power
generation
9,808 billion
kWh
2030 estimate
Primary Energy Supply
Power generation
total
Energy
savings
17%
10,650 billion kWh est.
Renewable
19-20%
Renewable
22-24%
Nuclear
17-18%
Nuclear
20-22%
LNG
22%
LNG
27%
Coal
22%
Coal
26%
Oil
2%
Oil
3%
2030 estimate
Edited source:
10th
Geothermal 1.1%
Biomass
3.7-4.6%
Wind 1.7%
Solar 7.0%
Hydro
8.8-9.2%
Base load rate 56% est.
Long-Term Energy Demand – Japan Government Sub-Committee
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Comparison of GHG Emissions Reduction Targets
▲ represents decrease
1990
Japan
USA
EU
China
India
South Korea
Russia
Compared to:
2005
2013
▲18.0% (by 2030)
▲25.4% (by 2030)
▲26.0% (by 2030)
▲14～16％ (by 2025)
▲26～28％ (by
▲18～21% (by 2025)
2025)
▲40％ (by 2030)
▲35％ (by 2030)
▲24% (by 2030)
 Compared to 2005, CO2 emissions per GDP decreased
60-65%.
 2030 seen as peak of CO2 emissions. Seeking to
accelerate reaching peak emissions.

Compared to 2005, GHG emission reductions per GDP
of 33-35% by 2030.

By 2030, reductions of 37% under BAU
(“business as usual”)
Compared to 1990, reductions of 25 to 30% by 2030.

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Basic policy of Japan toward Global Warming
 Prime Minister Abe's speech shortly after COP 21
“Aim for compatibility between economic growth and measures
warming according to the three principles.”
First, innovation. In particular, pursue a solution by innovative
Second, encouraging domestic investment and enhancing
competitiveness.
Thirdly, seeking public wisdom widely.
 Cabinet decision on vision of 80% reduction by 2050.
 Developing a strategy to induce innovation. Particularly formulated a
achieving energy mix by reducing CO2 emissions intensities in energy use.
The key is innovative technology development
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Discussions by the Japanese government on long-term strategy
Currently, the Ministry of Environment(MOE) and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry(METI) has started discussion on long-term strategy.
MOE’s discussion includes possible effects of introducing large scale carbon tax.
METI is studying situations in other countries, sharing knowledge among public, industry and
academic sectors in Japan, and summarizing the overall discussion points.
Combining the results of these discussions, the Japanese government will formulate a longterm strategy before the end of 2020.
The Ministry of Environment
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Round table conference on long-term strategy
for Climate Change
Platform on long-term measures against
global warming
Informal round-table conference organized by the Minister of
Environment, composed of 6 academics.
(issued a proposal in Feb. 2016)
Deciding the direction towards “long-term low-emission growth
strategy” by sharing discussion points and relevant facts among
public, private and academic sectors
(Establishing in later May 2016)
Central Environment Council
Starting discussion in the summer of 2016 to make
“Long-term carbon vision”
Industrial Structure Council
(to be established after 2017)
The Government will formulate “Longterm low-carbon development strategy “
(Before the end of 2020)
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Discussion on long-term strategy by METI
 METI started the discussion on long-term strategy since last May, establishing some
subcommittees on specific issues. The study is going on.
 Major Discussion Points;
・measures against global warming that are compatible to the enhancement of domestic
investment
・measures to contribute global emission reduction by utilizing Japanese technologies
・measures to promote public-private collaboration and international research cooperation to
create innovation
Platform on long-term measures against global warming (Public, Private and Academic)
Study on super long term scenarios
studying scenarios anticipating global carbonneutral in the later half of the century
TF on Enhancing Domestic Investment
TF on Overseas’ Expansion
Strategy
TF on Investment for Innovation
(Energy and Environment Innovation
Strategy)
measures against global warming that
are compatible to the enhancement of
domestic investment
measures to contribute global
emission reduction by utilizing
Japanese technologies
Measures to promote public-private
partnership and international research
cooperation to create innovation
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Road to CO2 Net Zero Emissions by 2050
Final Energy Consumption
Nonelectricity
Electricity
Current Status
？
Primary Energy
(Decarbonization)
Energy Efficiency
Biomass Fuel
Fossil Fuel
(+CCS)
？
？
Renewable
Energy (Other
than Biomass)
/ Nuclear
Energy
In the Future
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Road to CO2 Net Zero Emissions by 2050: Power-to-X
Secondary Energy
Final Energy Consumption
Nonelectricity
Energy
Efficiency via
Electrification
Non-electricity
Electricity
Hydrogen
Electricity
Electricity
Primary Energy
(Decarbonization)
Biomass Fuel
Fossil Fuel
(+CCS)
Renewable
Energy (Other
than Biomass)
/ Nuclear
Energy
(X: Transportation, Heating) (X: Hydrogen)
Electrification of
Transportation & Heating
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Trial Calculation Example of Japan’s Energy Balance in 2050
Final Energy Consumption in 2050
(1018Ｊ)
13.44
Reduction by 25% from Depopulation,
Progress in Energy Saving, etc.
10.25
Non-electricity
Additional Energy Saving from
Electrification in Areas of
Transportation & Heating
7.02
Electricity
(Source)
Trial Calculation by Business
Technology Strategy Research
Institute, Tokyo Electric Power
Company Holdings, Inc.
(980 TWh)
FY2013
(1300 TWh)
(750 TWh)
In Case of Current
Electrification Status
Note: Electricity Includes
Private & Decentralized
Power Sources
In Case of Maximum
Electrification
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Component of innovation
Digitize
■sharing
■ EV
×
Open
×
Connect
Open Data
Open Innovation
■Connected
■self-driving
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Contributions that only Japan can make
（my personal suggestion）
 Provide knowledge of design and implementation of pledge and
review to other countries
•
Sharing experience of voluntary emission reduction effort of Japanese industry
sectors
 Contribute to the emission reduction in other countries using
Japanese technologies
•
Expand Japanese Technology using Joint Credit Mechanism (JCM) or public
finance scheme
 Take leadership in the development of innovative technologies
•
•
Develop a strategy to develop innovative technologies and carry it out
Promote international R&D cooperation
• Working together with the Mission Innovation (established at the COP21 by
20 countries including Japan, US, EU, China, India)
• Use of Innovation Cool Earth Forum (ICEF), etc.
• Contribute to develop an international rule of intellectual property rights
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Thank you for your attention
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