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Rising to the challenge of adaptation Bill Gething Sustainability + Architecture University of the West of England Building a Resilient Future London February 2014 Twin Challenges Mitigation Reduce emissions Adaptation Design for a changing climate Exploit the overlap Avoid the conflicts Headlines Hotter drier summers Wetter warmer winters Extreme events more likely Sea level rise Design agenda: Comfort Comfort and overheating Construction Controlling heat gains Water Cooling strategies Context: Regional variation + geographic specifics Low carbon imperative. Tactics: Timing Scale Winter Comfort: a balancing act Recent construction Solar gain Active heating Lighting Equipment People Conduction Ventilation Balance point: May/ September Winter Comfort: a balancing act New construction Solar gain Equipment Active heating Active heating Lighting People Conduction Ventilation Balance point: March/ November Summer Comfort: a balancing act New construction Solar gain Equipment People Conduction Ventilation Active Cooling? Lighting Summer Comfort: a balancing act New construction Solar gain Control Lighting Minimise Equipment Minimise People Consider Conduction Ventilation + Climate change Fabric storage Control Modelling as a design tool … not just for verification Gale and Snowden Lots of climate information but probabilistic approach adds complexity … it needs “translation” …and there are gaps … but it needs “translation” Which Climate? CIBSE/ UKCIP ProCLiP charts High 30 Medium Low Summer mean daily maximum temperature (ºC) 32 90% Very Likely 28 67% Likely Central estimate 26 33% 24 10% 22 20 Baseline (1961-90) 2020s 2050s 2080s Climates chosen by Design for Future Climate teams 32 Summer man daily maximum temperature (ºC) 30 28 26 24 22 Baseline (1961-90) 2030s 20 2050s 2080s Scenarios used (using Summer Mean Daily Max Temperature ProCliP format as base for a relative indicator) Prometheus: Manchester: Arup Morphed 2009 data): CIBSE (2002 data): =Low 50% =Med =High 90% =Low =Med 50% =Med-High =Med 66% =High 50% =High 10 & 90% Climates chosen by Design for Future Climate teams 32 30 Summer man daily maximum temperature (ºC) London, Tokyo, New York threatened 28 4º 26 2º 24 Now 22 Baseline (1961-90) 2030s 20 2050s 2080s Scenarios used (using Summer Mean Daily Max Temperature ProCliP format as base for a relative indicator) Prometheus: Manchester: Arup Morphed 2009 data): CIBSE (2002 data): =Low 50% =Med =High 90% =Low =Med 50% =Med-High =Med 66% =High 50% =High 10 & 90% Translations Weather files for dynamic simulation 14 locations CIBSE TM48 (UKCIP02) PROMETHEUS (UKCP09) Exeter 43 locations COPSE (UKCP09) Manchester 2 (+) locations CIBSE (UKCP09) Low Carbon Futures (UKCP09) 14 locations Herriot Watt 2 locations Design your way out of the problem? Gale and Snowdon Design your way out of the problem? Design your way out of the problem? Triangle Architects Performance in practice Devil in the detail Windows – will they be opened? Before it’s too late… Noise Rain Security Dirt Pets/ children Blinds for privacy/ dim-out Ventilation systems – will they work/ keep working? Installation – rigid, insulated, big ducts Commissioning Noise Controls - intelligible and responsive Maintenance –screwdriver free Gaps Rainfall intensity 2 min duration, l/sec/ m² 7%/ ºC rise –rough rule of thumb Prof Sir Brian Hoskins, Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College 1 Year 5 Years 50 Years 500 Years ? Costs and benefits: Pay-back, Self Interest and the Common Good Need it cost more? Who pays and who gets the benefit? Design costs? Construction costs? Can the market deliver on its own? Trigger events? Impact – duration, magnitude, recovery, recurrence Daily Mail 23 Feb 2014 Information sources http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130221185318/http://www.innovateuk.org/ourstrategy/innovationplatforms/lowimpactbuilding/design-for-future-climate-report-.ashx Information sources https://connect.innovateuk.org/web/design-for-future-climate/projects-outputs Information sources http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130221185318/http://www.innovateuk.org/ourstrategy/innovationplatforms/lowimpactbuilding/design-for-future-climate-report-.ashx
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