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Crime Control Measures,
Individual Liberties and Crime Rates:
An Assessment of 40 Countries
Jay S. Albanese, Ph.D.
Virginia Commonwealth University
[email protected]
Do government interventions have any
impact on crime rates across countries?
Crime rate
Detention
rate
Police
(per capita)
Conviction
rate
Formal
contacts
with police
Prosecution
rate
The logic of government investment
and intervention in crime control
Government
investment in
crime control
Government
intervention in
lives of citizens
Impact on
public safety?
• Police per capita
(law enforcement resources)
• Conviction rate
(trained, empowered prosecutors and judges)
• Formal contacts with police
(police activity in practice)
• Prosecution rate (applying law in practice)
• Detention rate (seriousness of convictions)
• Crime rate (using both ICVS - to avoid citizen
crime reporting issues - and homicide rates)
Specific research questions:
• 1. How does the extent of government involvement in
attempting to control crime vary among countries (in terms of
formal police contacts, prosecutions, convictions, and
detention)?
• 2. How does the extent of criminal justice resources vary
among countries?
• 3. Is there a relationship between criminal justice
resources/capacity and the extent of formal police contacts,
prosecutions, convictions, and detention?
• 4. Do countries with a higher rate of formal police contacts,
prosecutions, convictions, and detention experience less
crime?
• 5. Are there other variables that might be measured that
could help to explain the relationship between government
crime control efforts and crime rates?
Measurement
• The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) global statistical series
on crime and criminal justice based on the responses of individual governments
to provide these data.
• Statistics on formal police contacts, prosecutions, convictions, and detention
among multiple countries (UN Member States) are included in these data.
• These data are limited in that they reflect only crimes known to the
government, a limitation addressed by use of the International Crime
Victimization Survey, which is carried out periodically in multiple nations,
because crimes not reported to the police are included in this survey of citizens.
• Data for 2010, excluding missing data, leaving 40 countries for analysis.
Crime control measures
1) Police per capita
2) Conviction rates
(gov't investments in
criminal justice
apparatus to control
crime and criminals)
Government
intervention (use of
available crime
control measures):
1) Formal contacts
2) Prosecution rate
3) Detention rate
Crime rates:
1) Crimes of theft,
assault
2) Homicide rates
(impact of crime control
measures and their use)
First results:
Do crime control measures + government
intervention impact crime and homicide rates?
Crime control
measures
1) Police per
capita
2) Conviction
rates
Government
intervention
(use of crime control):
1) Formal contacts
2) Prosecution rate
3) Detention rate
Impact on
crime rates &
homicide
rates?
1. Impact on crime rates is significant. (R2 = .682, ANOVA sig. p<.003) with
detention rate explaining nearly all the variance. (ICVS includes: car,
bicycle theft, burglar, robbery, larceny, assault, sex offenses)
2. Impact on homicide rate is significant. (R2 = .714; ANOVA sig. p<.001
(ANOVA reports on how well the regression equation fits the data, i.e.,
predicts the dependent variable).
A surprising result?
Perhaps other variables can do a better job explaining crime and
homicide rates across countries?
Other, unmeasured factors at play?
Formal
contacts,
prosecution,
detention
rate
Police per
capita,
conviction
rate
Crime
rate
Are other variables at work?
Social, political, economic factors?
Social, Political, Economic Factors
a. Civil liberties ranking
b Democracy index
c. Human development index
d. Info communications tech index
e. Political rights index
f. Corruption Perceptions index
g. Education index
h. Index of Economic Freedom
i. Press Freedom Index
j. Prosperity Index
Criminal Justice Factors
1) Police per capita
2) Conviction rates
3) Formal contacts
4) Prosecution rate
5) Detention rate
Crime rates:
1) Theft & assault crimes
2) Homicide rates
Added
variables to
explain
differences
in crime and
homicide
Indexes that combine
multiple variables
Variables included
Civil liberties ranking
Freedom of expression and belief, associational and
organizational rights, rule of law, and personal
autonomy and individual rights
Democracy Index
Electoral process, civil liberties, government
operation, political participation, political culture
Human development index
Life expectancy, income per capita, education level
Information & communication Connectivity, access, and policy related to Internet,
technologies Index
phones, and ISP markets.
Political rights Index
Electoral process, political pluralism and
participation, and functioning of government
Corruption Perceptions Index
Surveys of extent of corruption in public sector, from
perspective of businesspersons and country experts
Education Index
Av. years of schooling and expected yrs schooling
Index of Economic Freedom
Rule of law, limited government, regulatory
efficiency, open markets
Press Freedom Index
Freedom of journalists, news organizations, and the
internet, plus efforts made by governments to
ensure respect for press freedom
Prosperity Index
Wealth, economic growth, education, health,
personal well-being, and quality of life
Impact of social, political,
economic factors on crime
and homicide rates?
Variables that might help
explain crime & homicide rates:
a. Civil liberties ranking
b Democracy index
c. Human development index
d. Information & comm.
technologies index
e. Political rights index
f. Corruption Perceptions index
g. Education index
h. Index of Economic Freedom
i. Press Freedom Index
j. Prosperity Index
Second result: adding
additional factors
1. Impact on crime rates is NOT
significant. (R2 = .103, ANOVA sig.
p<.965) although detention rate
remains the strongest factor in
explaining the variance. (ICVS
includes: car, bicycle theft, burglar,
robbery, larceny, assault, sex offs)
2. Impact on homicide rate is significant
(R2 = .654; ANOVA sig. p<000. reports
on how well the regression equation
fits the data, i.e., predicts dependent
variable). Economic freedom &
corruption perceptions were best
predictors.
Conclusions?
• Government investment in crime control and
intervention in the lives of citizens has measurable
impacts on crime rates and homicide rates across
40 countries.
• Social, political, and economic factors do not have a
strong impact on crime rates, although they have a
significant impact on homicide rates. The strongest
factors were found to be economic freedom (rule
of law, limited government, regulatory efficiency,
open markets), and low corruption (the extent of
corruption in the public sector).
Remains to be determined:
a. The precise ways in which government crime
control & economic factors impact crime &
homicide rates.
b. Whether these findings will hold up over time with
data in the coming years.
c. Asian and African countries are under-represented
in this group of 40 countries due to lack of data.
Thank you for your attention!
Jay S. Albanese, Ph.D.
Virginia Commonwealth University
[email protected]
Crime
LE – across
jurisdictions
Transnational
Crime
• Against
Property
• Against People
• Against States
Penalties –
across
jurisdictions
Justice
• Between and
across nations
Crime
Adj – across
jurisdictions
Law
Enforcement
• Discretion
within the rule
of law
Adjudication
Penalties
• Fair and
impartial
hearing of facts
• Proportionality
• Prevention
International
Crime
• Violations of
human rights
LE –
international
conventions
Adj –in
international
forum
Penalties –
how & where
to punish?