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Chapter 9 Frontispiece. A multiclimate model average projection of global
surface temperature changes in the decade 2090-2100 compared with the
years 1980-1999
E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our
Energy Future, Columbia University Press. Source: Solomon et al., 2007
099
Figure 9.1. Modeling
global mean surface
temperature
E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of
Global Warming and Our Energy Future, Columbia
University Press. Source: Hegerl et al., 2007
100
Figure 9.2. Spatial
distribution of
observed warming
compared with the
distribution obtained
from model
simulations, 19022005 and 1979-2005
E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and
101
Figure 9.3. Projected changes in mean global surface
temperature under three emissions scenarios
E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and
Our Energy Future, Columbia University Press. Source: IPCC, 2007
102
Figure 9.4. Projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and
sea-level air pressure for winter (December-February) and
summer (June-August), 2080-2099
E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and
Our Energy Future, Columbia University Press. Source: Meehl et al., 2007
103
Table 9.1. Changes in the growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
required by 2050 to bring about specific warming targets
Change in
Emissions
By 2050
(% of 2000
Emissions)
Additional
Radiative
Forcing
(W/m2)
Atmospheric
CO2
Contents
(ppm)
CO2-eq
Contents
(ppm)a
Target
Temperature
Peak Year
Increaseb
for
(°C)
Emissions
2.5-30
350-400
445-490
2.0-2.4
2000-2015
-85 to -50
3.0-3.5
400-450
490-535
2.4-2.8
2000-2020
-60 to -30
3.5-4.0
440-485
535-590
2.8-3.2
2010-2030
-30 to +5
4.0-5.0
485-570
590-710
3.2-4.0
2020-2060
+10 to +60
5.0-6.0
570-660
710-855
4.0-4.9
2050-2080
+25 to +85
6.0-7.5
660-790
855-1130
4.9-6.1
2060-2090
+90 to +140
a
CO2-eq is the concentration of CO2 that would have the same radiative forcing as the forcing due to all the greenhouse gases (CO 2,
methane, nitrogen oxide, ozone, halocarbons).
b
The equilibrium global mean temperature = temperature at the same time the climate finally stops changing (i.e. after all the committed
warming has occurred) above the pre-industrial temperature.
E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and
Our Energy Future, Columbia University Press. Source: IPCC, 2007