Download 2012 - Portal da Indústria

16th Joint Meeting of Brazil-Japan
Economic Cooperation Committee
Carlos Mariani
National Confederation of Industry
Bilateral Trade in perspective: balanced numbers
- Fast and sustainable growth during the last decade
- Decline in 2012, specially due to Brazilian exports prices of basic products
- Bilateral trade in 2013: growth in exports (+8%), but imports declining (-15%)
Exp
Imp
Surplus
2.3 2.5
2.8 2.9
Brazil Japan Trade Flow – US$ billions
6.1
3.5 3.4
3.9 3.8
9.5
7.1 7.0
6.8
7.9
8.0 7.7
5.4
4.3 4.6
4.3
1.6
-0.2
2003
-0.1
2004
0.1
2005
0.1
2006
-0.3
2007
-0.7
2008
0.2
0.2
-1.1
2009
2010
2011
2012
Trade composition: What changes can we expect
in the short term?
Brazilian exports to Japan
Brazilian imports from Japan
11.7%
14.9%
Manufacture
Semimanufacture
Basic products
73.4%
99.5%
Manufacture
Semimanufacture
Basic products
Japanese companies: important investors in Brazil
2011 – 2012 investment announcement
Japanese Foreign Direct Investments in
Brazil
2011 – 4th largest investor (US$ 7.6
billions)
2012 – 10th largest investor
(US$ 1.5 billion)
US$ 4 billions
(Acquisition of
Schincariol)
US$ 1,2 billion
(joint venture in
Australia)
US$ 1 billion
(New factory in
Goiás)
US$ 50 millions (expansion of
factory in São Paulo)
Trade and investment complementarities
between both economies remain
But, what has advanced and what’s
missing to advance more?
Some issues on trade and investments have
advanced
• Transfer Price legislation in Brazil:
A new law passed in 2012 defining calculation methods for Transfer
Price. Japanese companies with investments in Brazil were very
active.
• Pork meat from Santa Catarina:
Meat exports started to be shipped this year.
• Digital TV standard:
More countries adopted Brazilian-Japanese digital TV standard.
Ways to advance more
To strengthen and work on
a clear bilateral agenda of
obstacles and opportunities
to increase trade and
investment
Advantage: shorten results
Disadvantage: limited
results
EPA
Advantage: very broad market
access coverage
Disadvantage: sensitive issues
for both sides
Reasons to discuss an EPA
Broad scope of trade, investment and cooperation
Multiplication of bilateral agreements
Japan and the Transpacific Partnership (TPP)
Need to diversify exports to Japan and intra firm trade
Global and regional value chains
Question: Does Brazil and Japan see each other as
strategic partners for an Agreement?
Brazilian strategy for trade agreements: Is it time
to change? Is Japan on the list?
- Brazil and Japan: low market-access agreements currently in force
- Concerns about Brazil’s economic isolation
Market access potential through Preferential Trade Agreements already celebrated –
selected countries
82.2%
2003
73.7%
63.5%
59.6%
60.6%
2012
61.0%
44.0% 45.2%
30.5%
21.4%
23.4%
9.5%
0.7%
Chile
Peru
7.4%
2.8%
México Coreia do
Sul
U.E.
China
23.4%
EUA
Japão
10.2%
4.1%
Brasil
MERCOSUL – European Union
Status
Countries are finalizing their lists of goods to exchange with European
Union, probably in the end of the year;
Flexibility to negotiate
MERCOSUR shall continue to be the institutional structure for Brazil
to negotiate, but the tariff reductions of MERCOSUR’s new
agreements can occur in different speeds in order to advance extraregional negotiations. There are already precedents.
The feasibility of EPA needs a
comprehensive evaluation from CNI
and KEIDANREN.
Issues affecting trade and investment between
Brazil and Japan
Demands from Brazil
• Tariff issues: sugar, ethanol, metal, wood and furnitures,
processed food, fruit and vegetables, fish, processed soybeans
• Non tariff issues: bovine, poultry, fresh fruit.
• Biofuels: Ambitious policies in Japan to stimulate the use of
biofuels in its energy matrix.
• Trade facilitation cooperation (single window, for example)
• Subsidies: avoidance of subsidies in aircraft industry.
Issues affecting trade and investment between
Brazil and Japan
Demands from Japan
• Infrastructure: stable
infrastructure projects;
and
predictable
regulation
in
• Taxation: Other taxation issues inside Brazil;
• Biofuels: stable domestic policy for biofuels in Brazil;
• Visa requirements for business, researchers and students
(important issue for both sides).
Conclusions:
Trade and investment relations are mature. But need to
revert the recent fall trend;
There is room for more private and public sector
engagement to strengthen and work on a systemized
business agenda;
A serious discussion on a free trade agreement between
Mercosul and Japan needs to assess its feasibility.