Download Francesco Anghelone

North Africa’s Arab Spring
Political and Social Changes
INTERNATIONAL BANKING FORUM 2013
Brescia, 13-14th June 2013
Francesco Anghelone
Scientific Coordinator
Istituto di Studi Politici “S. Pio V”
Presentation Overview
1. Arab Spring – Causes
2. Arab Spring – Characteristics, Main Actors and Results
3. Case Studies
1. Morocco
2. Tunisia
3. Egypt
4. Libya
4. EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring
5. Conclusions
2
Presentation Overview
1. Arab Spring – Causes
2. Arab Spring – Characteristics, Main Actors and Results
3. Case Studies
1. Morocco
2. Tunisia
3. Egypt
4. Libya
4. EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring
5. Conclusions
3
Arab Spring - Causes
1. Economic factors
2. Political factors
3. Social factors
4. Technological factors
4
Arab Spring - Causes
Economic Factors
1. Unemployment - Underemployment
•
especially among young people
•
20% across the region and 30% in Libya in 2011
2. Poverty
3. Rising of food prices (in 2008 food riots took place in the region)
4. Huge and unsustainable demographic expansion (the population of the region doubled
since 1980 with 60% under 25 years old)
5. Economic mismanagement
5
Arab Spring - Causes
Political Factors
1. Authoritarian regimes
2. Denied freedom of expression
3. Limited opportunities for participation in political and civil life
4. Long standing “emergency laws”
5. Malfunctioning or absent justice system
6. Repressive security state apparatus
7. Human rights abuses
8. Lack of democracy
6
Arab Spring - Causes
Social Factors
1. Lack of social mobility
2. Widening inequality
3. Visible evidences of corruption
4. Enrichment of elites
5. Rising education levels and literacy rates (young people)
6. Lack of dignity
7
Arab Spring - Causes
Technological factors
1. Internet spread (especially between young people)
2. Use of social networks
3. New forms of communication
4. Internet helped young people to be part of the globalization process
5. Internet and social networks were a platform used to organize the protest movements
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Arab Spring - Causes
Economic, Political, Social and Technological Factors
Can help us to understand why North African populations
and especially young people became aware of their
Relative Deprivation
They wanted an alternative
to their repressive and authoritarian governments
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Arab Spring - Causes
Relative Deprivation Theory
In sociology, relative deprivation theory is a view of social change and
movements, according to which people take action for social change in
order to acquire something (for example, opportunities, status, or wealth)
that others possess and which they believe they should have, too. Some
sociologists believe relative deprivation theory explains why people join
social movements or advocate social change.
The comprehension of the causes of the Arab Spring movements can help us to
understand their characteristics
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Presentation Overview
1. Arab Spring – Causes
2. Arab Spring – Characteristics, Main Actors and Results
3. Case Studies
1. Morocco
2. Tunisia
3. Egypt
4. Libya
4. EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring
5. Conclusions
11
Arab Spring - Characteristics, Main Actors and Results
Characteristics of the Arab Spring Movements
1.
Protests were not ideological
2.
Protests did not seek to impose a particular set of beliefs or order
3.
Protests united discontent citizens with different political, economic and religious views
4.
No central planning
5.
No major leaders or organization capacity
6.
Arab Spring movements repudiated the idea that Arab societies and cultures were incompatible
with democracy
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Arab Spring - Characteristics, Main Actors and Results
Main Actors of the Arab Spring Movements
1st Phase
1. Young people
2. Citizens from different social classes
3. Unemployed people
4. Secular parties or organizations
2nd Phase
1. Young people
2. Citizens from different social classes
3. Unemployed people
4. Secular parties or organizations
5. Islamic parties and organizations
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Arab Spring - Characteristics, Main Actors and Results
Results of the Arab Spring Movements
The main result is the victory of the Islamic parties
Main reasons:
1. Organization capacity
2. Widespread presence around the countries
3. Experience in political and social activities
4. Welfare services offered
5. Strong set of values
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Presentation Overview
1. Arab Spring – Causes
2. Arab Spring – Characteristics, Main Actors and Results
3. Case Studies
1. Morocco
2. Tunisia
3. Egypt
4. Libya
4. EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring
5. Conclusions
15
Case studies
Morocco
Context
Protests
• Strong national identity
• Limited (February 20th Movement)
• Monarchy as an element
• King Mohammed VI responded quickly and
of national unity
• Constitutional stability
proposed reforms
• King Mohammed VI initiatives gave the
• Multiparty system
idea of a transformation of the Monarchy
• Political elections
into a constitutional one
• Historical ties with Europe • Political elections anticipated by one year
• Good Economic
Performances
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Results
• Victory of the Justice and
Development Party
• Political integration of Islamic
forces in the constitutional
framework
• Substantial Political Stability
• Good Economic environment
Case studies
Tu n i s i a
Context
Protests
Results
• Strong national identity
•
Suicide of Mohammed Bouazizi
• Majority to the Ennahda Party
• Well integrated society
•
Start of the Arab Spring uprisings
• Integration of political Islam in
• High performances on human
•
Strong repression by police forces
the constitutional framework
•
Widespread revolts in the country
• Historical ties with Europe
•
Army decided to remain neutral
• (Murder of Chokri Belaid,
• Well-educated and literate
•
End of the Ben Ali government
leader of the opposition)
•
Election of the Constituent Assembly
•
Moncef Marzouki elected President
resource indicators
population
• Authoritarian regime
• No political freedom
• No good economic performances
• Ben Ali President
(Rassemblement Constitutionnel
Démocratique)
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• Uncertain political stability
• Economic uncertainty
Case studies
Egypt
Context
• Important centre of the Islamic • Started in January 2011
culture
• Mubarak changed the Prime minister
• Islamic forces in power
• Role of the military still
• Strong national identity
• Police repression
• Well integrated society
• Army maintained neutral position
• Uncertain political stability
• Long political and social
• Mubarak resignation
• Difficult relations between
traditions
• Authoritarian regime
• No political freedom
• No good economic
performances
• Mubarak President
(National Democratic Party)
• Muslim Brotherhood is the only
organised alternative
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Results
Protests
• Military took power
• Political Elections
important
Muslim Brotherhood and
secular parties
•Freedom and Justice Party 47% (MB) • Economic uncertainty
• Al Nour 24% - (Salafi)
• Presidential Elections
• Elected Mohamed Morsi (MB)
Case studies
Libya
Context
• No national identity
(Cyrenaica, Tripolitania,
• “Day of Rage”
• Elections
•
In Cyrenaica we had the strongest
• Unstable Political situation
opposition against Gheddafi’s
• Divisions in the country
government
• No security
Strong repression ordered by
• Presence of radical Islamic
Fezzan)
• Authoritarian and personalistic
political regime
•
• Low level of institutionalization
• No multiparty system
Gheddafi
•
• Tribes are the most important •
social institutions
•
• Economy in the hands of the
government
Division in the armed forces
Mercenaries used by Gheddafi
“Unified Protector” - NATO mission
(23rd March 2011)
•
Gheddafi is killed
(20th October 2011)
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Results
Protests
forces
• Economic instability
Case studies
After the Arab Spring
• Power of political Islam increased
• Important social and political changes
• Economic problems unsolved
• Democratization process started
20
Presentation Overview
1. Arab Spring – Causes
2. Arab Spring – Characteristics, Main Actors and Results
3. Case Studies
1. Morocco
2. Tunisia
3. Egypt
4. Libya
4. EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring
5. Conclusions
21
EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring
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•
The Arab Spring started a democratization process
•
Historic opportunity for NA countries and for EU
•
EU political and economic support is important for the success of the process
•
Rethinking EU approach to North African region
•
Europe should:
•
Support the economic development of the region
•
Foster a new impulse to intra-regional integration
•
Support the nation-building process in the North African countries
•
Support private investments in the region
EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring
Democratic Transition Process
needs
• Improvement of the economic conditions
•
Decrease of unemployment/underemployment
•
Economic growth
• Improvement of the political context
•
Political freedom
•
Multiparty systems
• Improvement of the social context
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•
Freedom of expression
•
Better welfare services
EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring
Europe should play a more active role in the North African area
EU Mediterranean countries should support a new political and
economic approach to the NA countries
New challenges for the UE - New players in the area
China
• Africa’s largest trading partner
• Model for NA countries
Persian Gulf countries
• In Tunisia Qatar has the leading position in terms of country originating highest FDI
flows
• Important investments in Morocco
Turkey
• Model for NA countries
• New relationships with governments led by the Islamic parties
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Presentation Overview
1. Arab Spring – Causes
2. Arab Spring – Characteristics, Main Actors and Results
3. Case Studies
1. Morocco
2. Tunisia
3. Egypt
4. Libya
4. EU and North Africa after the Arab Spring
5. Conclusions
25
Conclusions
If the North African countries transition to democracy will not be completed:
• Political and social instability in the area
• Difficult economic development in the North African countries
• Rising of radical Islam
• Growing demographic pressure on EU countries
• Rising of security threats in the Mediterranean area
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Conclusions
If the North African countries transition to democracy will be completed:
Advantages for North African countries
• Political and social stability
• Economic Development
• Attraction of Foreign Private Investments
• Possibility of intra-regional integration
Advantages for EU countries
• Decrease of demographic pressure on EU countries
• More security in the Mediterranean area
• Access to energy supplies
• Economic opportunities for European enterprises
• New markets for European products
• Better relations with the wider Muslim world
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