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ERD Working Paper No. 64
Empirical Assessment of Sustainability
and Feasibility of Government Debt:
The Philippines Case
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS
AND PILIPINAS QUISING
February 2005
Duo Qin is an economist, Marie Anne Cagas and Geoffrey Ducanes are consultants, and Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos and
Pilipinas Quising are economic analysts in the Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank. The
authors thank W. Bikales, X-L. Liu, R. S. Ondrik, and other ADB colleagues for valuable comments on an earlier draft.
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
23
Asian Development Bank
P.O. Box 789
0980 Manila
Philippines
©2005 by Asian Development Bank
February 2005
ISSN 1655-5252
The views expressed in this paper
are those of the author(s) and do not
necessarily reflect the views or policies
of the Asian Development Bank.
FOREWORD
The ERD Working Paper Series is a forum for ongoing and recently
completed research and policy studies undertaken in the Asian Development
Bank or on its behalf. The Series is a quick-disseminating, informal publication
meant to stimulate discussion and elicit feedback. Papers published under this
Series could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional
journals or chapters in books.
CONTENTS
Abstract
vii
I.
Introduction
1
II.
The Fiscal and Government Debt Situation in the Philippines
1
III.
Theories of Government Debt Sustainability and Feasibility
5
IV.
Empirical Tests of Government Debt Sustainability and Feasibility
8
V.
Conclusions
19
Appendix: Data Description and Sources
20
References
21
ABSTRACT
This paper assesses empirically the sustainability and feasibility of the
government debt in the Philippines using the No Ponzi Game criterion. Both
historical data and forecasts generated by a quarterly macroeconometric model
of the Philippines are used in the assessment. Stochastic simulations are carried
out to mimic future uncertainty. The test results show that, up to the end
of the present administration in 2010, the Philippine government debt is
not sustainable but weakly feasible, that the feasibility is vulnerable to major
adverse shocks, and that simple budgetary deficit control policy is inadequate
for achieving debt sustainability or strengthening feasibility.
I. INTRODUCTION
T
he huge public debt in the Philippines has raised serious and growing concerns about the
ability of the Philippine government to manage its debt obligations and the long-run
sustainability of government fiscal policy. Several studies done on the Philippines have shown,
by detailed analyses of the fiscal position over recent years, how the country’s public debt has
been fluctuating from sustainable to unsustainable levels (see e.g., Paderanga 1995 and 2001,
and Manasan 1997 and 2004).
The present paper extends these studies by subjecting the national government debt position
up to 2014 to an array of formal empirical tests based on available theories of long-run sustainability
and feasibility of public debt. Two branches of theories are considered. One uses the No Ponzi
Game (NPG) condition as the criterion for long-run sustainability within the framework of an infinitehorizon representative agent model (see Chalk and Hemming 2000, and Bergman 2001). The other
establishes, within the framework of a stochastic overlapping generations model, the feasibility
conditions for Ponzi games in a situation where the government manages its bond portfolio to
a lower debt rate than the market rate. (A government is said to be playing a Ponzi game when
it just keeps on paying old debt by issuing new ones. However, the government cannot continuously
engage in a Ponzi scheme: its debt cannot grow indefinitely.) As both theories are explicitly expressed
in terms of future debt and interest rate trends, stochastic forecasts are generated from a quarterly
macroeconometric model of the Philippines to extend the testing period to 22 years, i.e., 1993Q1–
2014Q4. In addition, several shocks are also introduced during the forecasting period to examine
how vulnerable the government debt situation would be in the face of significant adverse risks.
The rest of the paper is structured as follows: Section II briefly describes the fiscal and public
debt situation in recent years. Section III outlines the testable theories of public debt sustainability
and feasibility. Section IV reports the empirical test results. The last section concludes.
II. THE FISCAL AND GOVERNMENT DEBT SITUATION IN THE PHILIPPINES
Chronic deficits have marked the Philippine government’s fiscal position since the early years
of the country’s development.1 There was brief respite in the mid-1990s when the government’s fiscal
position improved enough to register a surplus of less than 1 percent for the period 1994-1997.
The occurrence of the Asian financial crisis, however, pushed the fiscal balance back to the negative
plane when it fell to –1.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1998, and then plummeted
to –5.2 percent in 2002. In 2003, the deficit stood at 4.6 percent of GDP (see Figure 1).
1
In the 1960s, government was in deficit 8 out of the 10 years and fiscal deficit averaged about 1 percent of GDP for
the decade. In the 1970s it was in deficit 7 out of the 10 years and the fiscal deficit averaged about one-half of 1
percent of GDP. In the 1980s the government was in deficit all 10 years and fiscal deficit averaged about 2.5 percent
of GDP.
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
FIGURE 1
GROWTH OF GDP AND RATIO OF FISCAL BALANCE TO GDP
8
6
4
Percent
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
GDP Growth
Fiscal Balance/GDP
Sources: National Statistical Coordination Board; Bureau of Treasury.
The deterioration of the fiscal balance is mostly due to shortfalls in government revenues,
especially tax revenues (which accounts for more than 85 percent of the total). The national
government’s revenue efforts have declined from a peak of 19.9 percent of GDP in 1994 to 14.6
percent of GDP in 2003 (see Figure 2). From its peak of about 17 percent in 1997, the tax effort
has slid to 12.5 percent in 2003. Government expenditures, on the other hand, have been fairly
stable, averaging about 18 percent of GDP for the period 1980-2003. Its growth has been kept
to a minimum and has been on a downward trend since 2000. In particular, primary spending (i.e.,
FIGURE 2
FISCAL AGGREGATES
25
20
15
Percent
10
5
0
-5
-10
1980
1983
1986
1989
Fiscal Deficit
Expenditures
Primary Spending
Source: Bureau of Treasury.
2
FEBRUARY 2005
1992
1995
1998
2001
Revenue
Primary Deficit
SECTION II
THE FISCAL AND GOVERNMENT DEBT SITUATION IN THE PHILIPPINES
national government spending net of interest payments) has been reined in, with its share to GDP
falling from 16.3 percent in 1999 to 14.0 percent in 2003. Capital expenditures have been reduced:
after reaching its peak of more than a quarter of total expenditures in the early 1980s, it is down
to 13.5 percent in 2003.2 In contrast, the amount spent for servicing of debt escalated. From an
average of 4.6 percent in 1975-1979, it went up to about 7 percent in 1980-1983, ballooned to
almost 25 percent in 1984-1989, and has averaged more than 24 percent in 2000-2003 (Figure
3).
FIGURE 3
NATIONAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, 2003 (PERCENT)
16
33
14
10
27
Personal Services
Interest Payments
Others
Maintenance and Operating
Expenses
Capital Outlays
Source: Department of Budget and Management.
A major threat to the national government’s fiscal position is the large stock of national
government debt and the associated costs of servicing that debt. In the 1970s and 1980s, large
debt inflows were used to stimulate the economy and to provide a cushion against external shocks
that had often plagued the economy in the early years of its development. Then in the 1990s it
also became a means to service the liabilities of ailing government agencies. By this time, domestic
resources have become a significant part of Philippine public debt reflecting the government’s
struggle to service its foreign debt while incurring fiscal deficits (Figure 4). From a peak of PHP95.4
billion in 1994, primary balance (i.e., total revenues less nondebt expenditures) went into deficit
in 2002 (PHP24.9 billion) before registering a surplus of PHP26.5 billion in 2003.
2
Of note is the fact that infrastructure spending of the national government has remained repressed and has not exceeded
2 percent of GDP. Indeed, the brunt of fiscal adjustment has primarily been absorbed by infrastructure and other development
spending—expenditures developing countries like the Philippines badly need.
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
3
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
FIGURE 4
NATIONAL GOVERNMENT OUTSTANDING DEBT
4,000
3,500
In billion peso
3,000
2,500
2,000
Foreign
1,500
1,000
500
Domestic
0
1986
1988
1990 1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Source: Bureau of Treasury.
The national government’s total outstanding debt stood at PHP3.36 trillion (which is 78 percent
of GDP) at the end of 2003. Including contingent liabilities, this would amount to about PHP4.1
trillion (or 94.5 percent of GDP). The consolidated public sector debt is much higher at PHP5.9
trillion—a whopping 137 percent of GDP. All three are on an upward trend (Figure 5).
FIGURE 5
CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT AND NATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
7,000
6,000
5,000
In billion peso
Consolidated Public Sector Debt
NG Total Debt
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
NG Outstanding Debt
0
1986
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
2000 2002
Note: NG means national government. Simple regression of the consolidated public
debt on the NG outstanding debt using data from 1993 onward shows a relatively
constant relationship between the two, with the slope coefficient estimate of 1.7.
Sources: CEIC Data Company Ltd., Bureau of Treasury.
4
FEBRUARY 2005
THEORIES
OF
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
AND
SECTION III
FEASIBILITY
The growth of public debt has been very high, averaging above 15 percent between 1999
and 2003. The national government debt has been growing at a higher rate for the same period,
with the increase largely attributed to the continuing national government deficits. However, an
equally sizeable amount (about 37 percent) of the increase in debt is due to nonbudgetary items
and assumed liabilities of government corporations (see Figure 5), underscoring the continuous
practice of condoning inefficiency and irresponsibility of government-owned and controlled
corporations (GOCC).
Warnings of the public debt problem have recently been voiced at an increasing volume by
economists and institutional investors in the Philippines as well as internationally (e.g., see De Dios
et al. 2004). However, most of these are based on case analyses rather than rigorous empirical tests.
This paper attempts to fill in this gap.
III. THEORIES OF GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY
The key consideration for any government to resort to debt is the availability and feasibility
of debt financing. This consideration underlies the theoretical approach to determine the debt
sustainability on the lenders’ constraint, which is commonly expressed by the present value constraint
(PVC).
Under the highly idealistic assumptions of an economy with one sector, in steady state and
on a dynamically efficient growth path, the PVC-based theory of government debt results in the longrun condition of No Ponzi Games. The theory starts from the government debt accounting identity.
With respect to the Philippine case, this identity results in:
Bt +1 = q t +1 Bt + Dt +1 + Lt +1
(1)
where Bt denotes the government debt at time t; q t the one-period interest rate factor, e.g.,
q t = 1 + rt , with rt being the equilibrium interest rate with respect to the marginal rate of substitution
derived from the optimization of consumers’ preference function; Dt is the primary fiscal deficit,
i.e., budget deficit excluding interest payment; and Lt denotes the off-budget account deficit, due
mainly to the contingent liabilities of GOCCs.3 Forward substitution of (1) yields:
Bt =
∞
∑
j =1
− (D + L )t + j
j
∏ q t +i
i =1
+ lim
Bt +τ
τ →∞ τ
∏ qt + j
(2)
j =1
Since the first term on the right-hand side of (2) is expected to balance out in general, the lenders’
constraint results in the NPG condition:
3
Notice that the term Lt is absent in the standard debt accounting identity, where only net debt is considered (e.g., see
Lebow 2004).
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
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EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
Bt + τ
lim
τ →∞ τ
∏ qt + j
=0
(3)
j =1
The limit in (3) defines the necessary condition for the long-run debt sustainability. It implies
that government debt cannot grow faster than the average interest rate in the long run.
A popular alternative is to examine the sustainability condition in terms of the debt-to-income
ratio, instead of debt alone, based on the argument that all the budget variables are highly dependent
on the macroeconomic situation (see for example Cuddington 1996). Let us define the debt ratio
by bt = Bt / Yt ; the primary deficit ratio by dt = Dt / Yt ; and the off-budget account deficit ratio by
l t = Lt / Yt , where Yt is the aggregate income and often represented by GDP or gross national product
(GNP). Equation (2) can be rewritten as:
bt =


τ
∑  ∏ q t + i (− (d + l )t + j ) + τlim
∏q
→∞
∞
j
j = 1 i = 1
g
t +i

gt + j
j =1 t + j
bt +τ
(4)
where gt is the growth factor: Yt + 1 = g t + 1Yt . The NPG condition corresponding to (3) becomes:
τ
gt + j
∏q
τ →∞
lim
j =1 t + j
bt +τ = 0
(5)
Equation (5) highlights the importance of the dynamic efficiency assumption, since it is necessary
to have the interest rates larger than the economic growth rates for the nontrivial case of bt +τ ≠ 0
in (5).4
Empirical tests of the debt sustainability conditions (3) or (5) entail knowledge of the timeseries properties of the variables in these equations, since these conditions require us to infer the
asymptotic properties of the limit functions from finite data samples. In particular, it is crucial to
know the time-series properties of the debt or debt ratio series, as the interest rate and the economic
growth rate are normally expected to be either stationary or nontrended random walk.5 Following
Bergman (2001), we assume that the government debt be generated by a first-order autoregressive,
i.e., AR(1), process:6
Bt = α 0 + α 1Bt −1 + ε t
=
4
5
6
6
t −1
t −1
k =0
k =0
∑ α 0α 1k + α 1t B0 + ∑ α 1k ε t −k
(6)
The assumption is embodied in the infinite-horizon representative consumer model (Bohn 1995).
A number of empirical tests are built on the time-series relationship between the fiscal deficit and the debt series
(Quintos 1995, Bohn 1998). However, this approach is not applicable here since there is an off-budget deficit component
in the Philippine government debt.
This is a testable assumption. The results below can be extended to an AR(n) process when n>1.
FEBRUARY 2005
THEORIES
OF
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
AND
SECTION III
FEASIBILITY
where et is a zero-mean stationary process. When α 1 < 1 , the NPG condition (3) is satisfied. When
the debt series is nonstationary, i.e., α 1 ≥ 1 , the NPG condition (3) can be examined by combining
it with (6):
Bt + τ
lim
τ →∞ τ
∏ qt + j
j =1



1
= lim  τ
τ →∞
 ∏q
 j =1 t + j



t +τ − 1
 t +τ − 1 k

t +τ
k
 ∑ α 0α 1 + α 1 B0 + ∑ α 1 ε t +τ − k 
k =0

 k = 0


(7)
The NPG condition now becomes:
τ
∑ α 0α 1k
k =0
τ →∞ τ
lim
∏ qt + j
= 0,
lim
τ →∞ τ
j =1
α 1τ
∏ qt + j
=0
(8)
j =1
Condition (8) requires that the degree of explosiveness in the roots of the debt series be
no larger than what the compounding interest rates could dampen out in the long run.
The same approach applies if empirical tests are based on the debt ratio. Starting from an
AR(1) process:
bt = β 0 + β 1 bt −1 + ν t
(9)
where νt is a zero-mean stationary process, and combining it with (5):
τ
j =1
 τ gt + j
bt +τ = lim  ∏
τ → ∞ j = 1 q t + j
t+ j

gt + j
∏q
τ →∞
lim
t +τ − 1
 t +τ − 1
 ∑ β 0 β 1k + β 1t +τ b0 + ∑ β 1kν t +τ − k 
,

 k = 0
k =0


(10)
we obtain the following convergence conditions:
τ
gt + j
∏q
τ →∞
lim
j =1
τ
∑ β 0 β1k
t + j k =0
= 0,
τ
gt + j
∏q
τ →∞
lim
j =1
t+ j
β 1τ = 0
(11)
It is a widely known fact that government bonds normally enjoy significantly lower interest
rates than the market equilibrium rates. Moreover, many governments utilize the bond market to
reduce their debt interest payments by issuing bonds of different maturities to roll over government
debt (Bohn 1995 and 1998). As a result, the aggregate interest rate of the government bond portfolio
is normally lower than the growth rate of the economy, making the simple NPG scheme (5)
implausible (Blanchard and Weil 2001). Under this situation, the issue then becomes to what extent
the government can violate the present value budget constraint and make it feasible to play debt
Ponzi games.
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
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EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
In a recent paper, Barbie et al. (2004) investigate this issue by means of the stochastic
overlapping generations model. They establish the necessary and sufficient conditions of the
feasibility of government debt Ponzi games under a scenario where the government utilizes rollover
bond issuance strategies.7 Their conditions essentially boil down to the nondivergence of the ratio
of the aggregate interest rate of the public bond portfolio to the economic growth rate under
all kinds of stochastic shocks:
τ
lim
∏
q b ( z )t + j
τ →∞ j =1
<∞
g ( z )t + j
 τ q b ( z )t + j
∑  ∏ g(z)
j = 1 j = 1
t+ j
∞
(necessary condition)
(12)

 ≤φ < ∞
(necessary and sufficient condition)

j
(13)
where q b denotes aggregate interest rate factor of the government bond portfolio, z denotes
the state of random shocks, and f is a finite positive bound representing the credit constraint
faced by the government. Conditions (12) and (13) show that government Ponzi games would
not be possible unless the government could obtain debt finance at a lower interest rate than
the average economic growth rate in the long run. Barbie et al. (2004) refer to the ratio, q b / g ,
as the real interest rate of debt payment, and to φ as setting a fixed upper bound for the debt
ratio. The latter is not difficult to see if we assume (5) converges to a positive number instead
of zero when the interest rate is the lower-than market bond rate, i.e.:
τ
lim
∏
gt + j
τ → ∞ j =1 q b
t+ j
τ
provided that
bt +τ = λ > 0
gt + j
∏ qb
τ →∞
lim
j =1
≠0
⇒
lim bt +τ = λ lim
τ →∞
τ
∏
q tb+ j
τ → ∞ j =1 gt + j
,
(14)
.
t+ j
IV. EMPIRICAL TESTS OF GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY
In this section, empirical tests are conducted on the Philippine national government debt. Ideally,
the tests should be conducted on the consolidated public debt. But this series is available only at
annual frequency. As the consolidated public debt is roughly 1.7 times the national government debt
(see the footnote in Figure 5), the conclusions that we draw from the empirical tests on the national
government debt should be also applicable to the consolidated public debt.
Almost all the empirical tests of government debt sustainability in the literature have been
carried out using historical time-series data (Bohn 1998, Chalk and Hemming 2000). However, a
major weakness of these tests is that the past results may not be directly projected into the future,
where all the PVC theories are really focused on. This can be especially worrisome considering that
the dynamics of the government debt tends to be highly susceptible to the macroeconomic
environment in a small and open economy like the Philippines.
7
8
Notice that the condition for feasibility is weaker than that for sustainability (Barbie et al. 2001).
FEBRUARY 2005
EMPIRICAL TESTS
OF
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
AND
SECTION IV
FEASIBILITY
Here, we conduct the tests using a quarterly time-series sample combining historical data with
future data forecasted by a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippines built by the Asian
Development Bank (we refer to this model as the ADB Philippine model). The model contains over
80 variables and is estimated using the data sample from 1990Q1 to 2004Q2, although some data
series are shorter, e.g., the government fiscal account series, including the debt series to be used
in our tests, start from 1993Q1 (see Ducanes et al. 2005 for more detailed description of the model).
The forecast period is 2004Q3–2014Q4. Forecast values of some exogenous variables are partly based
on forecasts from the OECD Economic Outlook and Oxford Economic Forecasting World Model; otherwise,
the forecasts of an exogenous variable are extrapolated from its present time path. During the forecast
period, a large number of stochastic simulations are computed using the bootstrap method for shock
generation.8 This method enables us to empirically mimic the z component of equations (12) and
(13) in accordance with the random patterns of the ADB Philippine model residuals. Quantiles are
calculated from the large set (200 in our experiments) of the simulation results to illustrate the
distribution of the stochastic forecasts. In particular, values at 2 and 97 percent quantiles are used
as the approximate 95 percent confidence band of the simulation mean values. Below, we refer to
the data series of the simulation mean values as the “mean” data series and the other two as the
“upper” and “lower” data series, respectively. Figure 6 shows the debt and debt ratio series with
these forecasting bands.
Let us first examine the simple time-series properties of the government debt and debt/GDP
ratio series respectively. As shown from the unit-root test results in Table 1, both series exhibit
strong nonstationary properties, with the debt series showing certain explosive tendency. The test
results are also reflected in the ensuing regression analysis. We start by running an AR(4) model
for the debt and debt ratio series in order to test the assumption of AR(1) in equations (6) and
DEBT, Bt,
AND DEBT/GDP RATIO, Bt;
FIGURE 6
HISTORICAL DATA PLUS FORECASTS
BY STOCHASTIC SIMULATIONS
10000000
Bt
Bt
4
8000000
3.5
Percent
6000000
4000000
3
2.5
2000000
2
1.5
0
1993 1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Note: The solid lines are the mean data series; the dotted lines are the upper and the lower series forming approximately 95%
confidence interval.
8
The method randomly draws shocks from single equation residuals over a specified historical sample period and adds
them to each forecast period. For more details, see Pierse (2001).
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
9
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
UNIT ROOT TESTS
BY
TABLE 1
AUGMENTED DICKY-FULLER (ADF) TEST
DEBT SERIES
AUGMENTED LAGS
3
2
1
0
ADF-TEST
2.03
2.00
4.78
4.52
J FOR YT-1
T-VALUE OF
LONGEST LAG
1.01
1.01
1.02
1.01
SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
OF LONGEST LAG
-0.52
4.49
-1.55
0.60
0.00
0.12
0.91
-1.83
-0.06
0.37
0.07
0.95
DEBT RATIO SERIES
3
2
1
0
-0.74
-0.66
-0.86
-0.88
0.98
0.99
0.98
0.98
Note: The null hypothesis is J = 0. The critical values of ADF tests are: -2.90 at 5% and -3.51 at 1%. The sample covers 1994Q1
- 2014Q4. Seasonal dummies are added in the debt ratio test, as the series exhibits significant seasonal feature inherent from GDP.
(9). As visible from Table 2, the assumed AR(1) process is accepted for the debt ratio series in
both the full-sample and subsample estimations, whereas the debt process is captured by an AR(3)
in the full-sample estimation and by an AR(1) only in the subsample estimations. Moreover, the onelag coefficient estimates for the debt ratio exhibit stronger time invariance than those for the debt
series, conforming to what was expected in the previous section.
In view of the regression results, we have conducted the sustainability tests on the debt ratio
only. It is discernible from the recursive β̂ 1 of (9) in Figure 7 that this coefficient drifts below
unity in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis and converges to unity during the forecasting
period of the sample, even though the unit value is within the 95 percent band for the entire sample.
Considering the finite-sample uncertainty in β̂1 , two versions of condition (11) are tested, one using
the full sample estimate β̂1 and the other the recursive β̂ 1,t + j :
 τ g t + j τ 
βˆ1 ,
∏
 j = 1 qt + j 
 τ g t + j τ

βˆ1,t + j 
∏
∏
 j = 1 qt + j j = 1

(11’)
The condition relating to the intercept term is disregarded here because its estimates are insignificant,
as shown in Table 2.
In the NPG theories, government bonds are assumed to bear the same rate as the equilibrium
interest rate. However, this assumption seldom holds in reality. Thus, in order to examine the different
effects of interest rates, we consider three rates: market lending rate, 91-day Treasury bill (TB)
rate, and government debt portfolio rate derived from the government debt interest payment and
the debt series. As seen from Figure 8, the government rates are remarkably lower than the market
rate. More interestingly, the derived portfolio rate is far smoother than the TB rate, possibly reflecting
government efforts in debt portfolio management to minimize and stabilize the debt cost payment.
10
FEBRUARY 2005
EMPIRICAL TESTS
AR(4) ESTIMATIONS
COEFFICIENT
LAG 1
FOR THE
TABLE 2
MEAN SERIES
OF
DEBT
OF
AND
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
AND
SECTION IV
FEASIBILITY
DEBT RATIO
LAG 2
LAG 3
LAG 4
INTERCEPT
Full Sample: 1994Q1 to 2014Q4
Debt
0.9410
(0.1087)*
0.5521
(0.1485)*
-0.5482
(0.1516)*
0.0630
(0.1209)
26180
(13810)
Debt Ratio
0.9950
(0.1102)*
-0.2063
(0.1511)
0.2951
(0.1514)
-0.1004
(0.1102)
0.0474
(0.0632)
Subsample: 1994Q1 to 2009Q4
Debt
1.0037
(0.1243)*
0.2291
(0.1783)
-0.1526
(0.1807)
-0.0629
(0.1274)
8866
(13270)
Debt Ratio
0.9875
(0.1274)*
-0.0895
(0.1745)
0.1760
(0.1749)
-0.0874
(0.1271)
0.0401
(0.0776)
Historical data: 1994Q1 to 2004Q2
Debt
0.9432
(0.1544)*
0.0138
(0.2053)
0.0968
(0.2064)
0.0117
(0.1624)
-47302
(25420)
Debt Ratio
1.0462
(0.157)*
-0.0173
(0.225)
0.1146
(0.2272)
-0.1995
(0.1582)
0.1385
(0.1339)
Note: The statistics in parentheses are standard errors. Those marked by * are significant at 5%. Seasonal dummies are added
in the AR(4) model for the debt ratio.
FIGURE 7
RECURSIVE ESTIMATES OF b1 in Equation (9)
1.5
1.0
0.5
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Note: The dotted lines are 95% confidence intervals.
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
11
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
FIGURE 8
INTEREST RATES
Mean series
Portfolio rate
Portfolio
TB rate
Lending
7.6
Per cent
20
Percent
15
7.0
10
6.3
5
5.7
5.0
0
1993 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Lending rate
16
20
12
16
Percent
Percent
TB rate
1993 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
8
12
8
4
4
0
1993 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
1993 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note: TB rate denotes 91-day Treasury bill rate. The solid lines are the mean data series; the dotted lines are the upper and
the lower series forming approximately 95% confidence interval.
To check whether the chosen rates represent adequately the market rates for the government bonds,
Figure 9 plots these rates together with the JP Morgan bond yield of the weighted Philippine
sovereign bonds for the period of 2000Q1–2004Q2. Discernibly, the 91-day TB rate and the portfolio
rate are a bit lower than the JP Morgan bond yield while the lending rate is higher. This suggests
that the test results from the three rates should provide us with a fairly good confidence region.
Three pairs of the series in (11’) are calculated, each using one of the three interest rates.
The results are plotted in Figure 10. Noticeably, the results using the full-sample coefficient estimate
show significantly higher values than those using the recursive results. This is due to the fact that
β̂1 exceeds its subsample estimates for over one third of the sample period, as shown in Figure
7. However, the full sample β̂ 1 should be relatively reliable for out-of-sample inference based on
the recursive results as it converges to a highly constant value with the sample size. Notice that
the lending rate appears to provide the only case where the NPG condition is likely to be satisfied
12
FEBRUARY 2005
EMPIRICAL TESTS
OF
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
AND
SECTION IV
FEASIBILITY
FIGURE 9
INTEREST RATES AND YIELD OF GOVERNMENT BONDS
Portfolio Rate
Lending Rate
91-Day TB Rate
JP Morgan Asia Bond Weighted Yield
of Philippine Sovereign Bonds
16
Per cent
12
8
4
0
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Note: JP Morgan Asia Bond Weighted Yield of Philippine Sovereign Bonds comes from
Datastream.
in the infinite future, as it gradually decreases with time. The series based on the portfolio rate
also appears to be converging very slowly and is estimated to be approximately zero around 2020,
indicating that a government Ponzi game is present during the current regime.9
To directly assess the feasibility of the Ponzi game, we calculate the test series of (12) and
(13) using the portfolio rate and the TB rate, respectively, and plot them in Figure 10. The results
show that only the necessary condition is satisfied up to 2014, not the sufficient condition. This
indicates the feasibility of the debt Ponzi game played by the government to be near the borderline
of becoming infeasible for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the sufficient condition (13) is likely
to hold for the infinite future as both test series under (12) show a downward trend toward zero.
Noticeably, the series for the necessary condition using the portfolio rate shows a visibly slower
converging speed than that using the TB rate, suggesting that the government bond portfolio faces
a tighter credit constraint than short-term bills. This suggests the increasing risk that investors attach
to the government bonds of longer terms.
Indeed, practical concerns over the future uncertainty of the debt situation is asymmetric, i.e.,
investors are far more watchful of those uncertain situations when the sustainability or feasibility
of government debt is at risk of being violated than vice versa. The worry is warranted by a number
of government debt default crises triggered by adverse shocks in small and open economies with
weak governments, such as Argentina and Brazil.10 Since the feasibility test results in Figure 10
indicate that the present debt situation in the Philippines is about marginally feasible, we run
a model simulation to examine how much an adverse shock would worsen the government debt
situation. The simulation assumes the adverse shock to be a currency crisis occurring in 2005Q4–
2006Q4, with the peso-dollar exchange rate devaluing 40 percent in total (see Figure 11).11
9
The next election year is 2010.
Calvo et al. (2003) demonstrate how a mismatch in the public debt composition led to a crisis in Argentina triggered
by its currency devaluation shock; Razin and Sadka (2002) show how the then forthcoming October 2002 election
in Brazil, which indicates expected regime change, could trigger a debt crisis even though the debt ratio is relatively
low and the fundamentals are sound.
11 The exchange rate is exogenous in the Philippine model. Since the model also assumes world trade demand as exogenous
the simulation does not reflect the possible reactions of this variable to the devaluation shocks.
10
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
13
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
FIGURE 10
TESTS OF (11’), (12) AND (13)
2.0
Full-sample Constant b
1.5
Recursive b
1.2
1.5
0.9
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
TB rate
Portfolio rate
Lending rate
Necessary Condition (12)
Portfolio Rate Products
TB Rate Products
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2011
2014
Sufficient Condition (13)
Portfolio Rate Sum (Products)
40
TB Rate Sum (Products)
60
30
45
20
30
10
15
0
0
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Note: It takes about 6 more years for the portfolio rate series in (11') to converge to zero. The solid curves in (12) and (13) are mean
series and the dotted lines are the lower and upper series forming a 95% confidence interval. The portfolio series in (12) would take
about 4 more years to converge to zero.
14
FEBRUARY 2005
EMPIRICAL TESTS
OF
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
AND
SECTION IV
FEASIBILITY
FIGURE 11
ASSUMED EXCHANGE RATE DEVALUATION (PESO/US$)
90
80
70
60
50
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Solid line: default values; dotted line: assumed shock values
Both the sustainability test (11’) and the feasibility tests (12) and (13) are recalculated using
the simulation results for the forecasting subsample, see Figure 12. In comparison with Figure
10, the sustainability results (11’) are now in a visibly worse state, especially with the disappearance
of the downward trend in the series based on the portfolio rate and the lending rate; the test results
using the portfolio rate no longer hold for either (11’) or (12), illustrating that the currently feasible
state of the government debt is indeed fragile and highly susceptible to adverse external shocks.
Given the severity of the government debt situation, we run another simulation to examine
whether fiscal policy adjustments would help improve the situation. We set the simulation as achieving
zero deficit by 2010, in accordance with the target of the current government. Experimenting with
various schemes of curbing fiscal expenditure and raising tax revenue, we find that this target
is achievable by having the tax revenue increase by 11 percent per annum12 together with a capped
annual growth at 5 percent of the government expenditure net of interest payment for six years,
i.e., 2004Q4-2010Q3. Figure 13 shows the dynamic path of the budget deficit under this simulation
as compared with that of the default simulation (the left panel), and the impact of this simulation
on GDP growth as well as interest rate (the right panel). Noticeably, the fiscal target leads to prompt
deficit deterioration post the target period and a persistent slowdown of the economy during the
target period, suggesting that such a severe target is highly likely to incur grave fiscal burden
for the next regime while depressing the overall economy during the present regime. This kind
of policy consequence is hardly surprising in view of the already undersized public sector in the
Philippines, as described in Section II. What is surprising are the simulation test results, which
show no chance of achieving the sustainability condition or the feasibility condition within the
present regime (see Figure 14), in spite of the heavy policy cost. Our finding reveals the inadequacy
of designing fiscal policy around controlling budget deficit alone in order to achieve debt
sustainability. Much more comprehensive policies are required.
12
Notice that increase in tax revenue does not necessarily depend on raising tax rates. In the Philippine case, improvement
in taxation efficiency and promotion of faster economic growth are the paramount factors.
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
15
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
FIGURE 12
TESTS OF (11’), (12) AND (13) UNDER EXCHANGE RATE SHOCK SIMULATION
Sustainability Condition (11’)
Recursive b
Full-sample Constant b
5.0
1.5
4.0
1.2
3.0
0.9
2.0
0.6
1.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
TB rate
Portfolio rate
Lending rate
Necessary Condition (12) for Feasibility
Portfolio Rate Products
TB Rate Products
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Sufficient Condition (13) for Feasibility
TB Rate Sum (Products)
Portfolio Rate Sum (Products)
40
60
30
45
20
30
10
15
0
0
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Note: In this simulation, the exchange rate devalues by 11, 14, 10, and 5 percent for the consecutive four quarters starting from
2005Q4; recovers by 5 percent in 2006Q4; drops by 2 percent in 2007Q1; and stays constant afterward. Convergence to zero is
unachievable for the portfolio rate series in (11') and (12).
16
FEBRUARY 2005
EMPIRICAL TESTS
FIGURE 13
FISCAL SIMULATION IMPACT: BUDGET DEFICIT
AND
OF
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
AND
SECTION IV
FEASIBILITY
GDP GROWTH
5.0%
50000
0
2.5%
-50000
0.0%
-100000
-2.5%
-150000
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Budget deficit:
Solid line: fiscal simulation; dotted line: default values
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Differences between fiscal simulation and default:
Solid line: GDP growth rate; dotted line lending rate
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
17
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
FIGURE 14
TESTS OF (11’), (12) AND (13) UNDER FISCAL SIMULATION
Sustainability Condition (11’)
Recursive b
Full-sample Constant b
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.5
0.9
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
TB rate
Portfolio rate
Lending rate
Necessary Condition (12) for Feasibility
Portfolio Rate Products
1.0
1.2
0.8
0.9
TB Rate Products
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
1996
2014
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Sufficient Condition (13) for Feasibility
TB Rate Sum (Products)
Portfolio Rate Sum (Products)
40
60
30
45
20
30
10
15
0
0
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Note: In the model simulation, tax revenue is assumed to increase by 11% annually and government noninterest expenditure
growth is controlled to not exceed 5% annually during 2005-2010. It takes about 2 more years for the portfolio rate series to
converge to zero in (11'). It takes over 5 more years for it to converge to zero in (12).
18
FEBRUARY 2005
SECTION V
CONCLUSIONS
V. CONCLUSIONS
This paper assesses empirically the sustainability and feasibility of the government debt situation
in the Philippines. The assessment is based on the NPG criterion and mainly carried out on the debtto-GDP ratio using both its historical data and forecasts generated by a macroeconometric model
of the Philippine economy.
Our assessment shows that the government debt situation is not sustainable as far as the
present regime is concerned. One key reason for the existing high government debt is the fact
that the government still enjoys lower bond rates than the market lending rates. In other words,
the Philippine government bonds are still perceived as having relatively low default risk. Our
assessment also shows that the Philippine government is playing a weakly feasible debt Ponzi game.
The debt strategy satisfies the necessary condition but fails the sufficiency condition for feasibility
up to 2014, although it might satisfy both conditions for the infinitely remote future. These results
indicate the vulnerability of the debt situation.
The vulnerability is further confirmed by our experiment of a shock simulation using the
Philippine model. We find that the government debt no longer satisfies the debt feasibility condition
under a hypothetical exchange rate crisis. This result shows that the government is facing a high
risk of running into a debt crisis in the event of a major adverse shock to the economy.
Our findings provide strong support to the warnings about the critical government debt
situation and highlight the difficulty and the urgency of improving the government’s fiscal position
in the present Philippine economy. Indeed, our model simulation shows that the simple fiscal policy
of medium-term budget deficit control alone is inadequate for reversing the unsustainable debt
situation. This underscores the importance of studying the dynamic interaction between proposed
corrective policies to control public debt and the underlying macroeconomic variables. Any policy
aimed at addressing the debt sustainability problem must take into account not just its effect on
debt but also its effect on other economic variables, such as interest rates and the overall economic
growth, which are themselves factors that determine debt sustainability. What is highly needed
are more comprehensive and well-coordinated policies aimed at promoting sustained economic
growth, increasing resilience to exogenous shocks as well as improving debt management.
The results further point at the nonevadable responsibility that public debt creditors and
donors should take in helping the heavily debt-burdened country to avoid a debt crisis. In particular,
large institutional creditors must review lending policies to ensure that their loans and accompanying
provisions are carefully based on the debt sustainability of the country concerned as derived from
its macroeconomic framework. If loan provisions are not based on market perceived risk or if debt
service can largely be covered by grants, aid, or debt relief, then the government will have little
incentive to pursue sound macroeconomic policies and increase its capacity to pay (IMF and IDA
2004).
What would therefore be the optimal policy strategy to attain debt and fiscal sustainability
for the current regime? The solution is beyond the scope of the present study, but the results, hopefully,
would help policy making move toward the right direction.
ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 64
19
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
APPENDIX
DATA DESCRIPTION AND SOURCES
DATA SERIES
DESCRIPTION
1
SOURCE
91-day Treasury Bill Rate Weighted averages per annum
(%)
CEIC Data Company Ltd., BSP, ADB
Philippine Model
Bond Yield
JP Morgan Asia Bond Weighted Yield
of Philippine Sovereign Bonds
Datastream
Capital Outlays
In billion pesos
DBM
Consolidated Public
Sector Debt
In million pesos
CEIC Data Company Ltd., Btr
Expenditure
In million pesos
CEIC Data Company Ltd., Btr
Fiscal Deficit
Revenue less expenditure
BTr
Gross Domestic Product
Current price (in million pesos)
CEIC Data Company Ltd.,
ADB Philippine Model
Interest Payments
Current price (in million pesos)
CEIC Data Company Ltd., BTr,
ADB Philippine Model
Lending Rate (%)
Weighted averages per annum. Annual
rates are averages of monthly rates.
Monthly rates are annual percentage
equivalent of all commercial banks’ actual
monthly interest income on their pesodenominated loans to the total
outstanding levels of their pesodenominated loans, bills discounted,
mortgage contract receivables and
restructured loans.
CEIC Data Company Ltd., BSP,
ADB Philippine Model
MOOE
In billion pesos
DBM
National Government
Debt
In million pesos
CEIC Data Company Ltd., Btr
National Government
Outstanding Debt
Outstanding Domestic Debt +
Outstanding Foreign Debt,
Current price (in million pesos)
CEIC Data Company Ltd., BTr,
ADB Philippine Model
Personal Services
In billion pesos
DBM
Portfolio rate (%)
Interest payments/National
government outstanding debt
CEIC Data Company Ltd., Btr,
ADB Philippine Model
Primary Deficit
Revenue less primary spending
BTr
Primary Spending
Expenditure less interest payments
BTr
Revenue
In million pesos
CEIC Data Company Ltd., Btr
BTr means Bureau of Treasury.
DBM means Department of Budget and Management.
1Actual
data are sourced from CEIC Data Company Ltd. and/or official sources. Forecast data are sourced from the
ADB Philippine Model.
20
FEBRUARY 2005
REFERENCES
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EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY AND FEASIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: THE PHILIPPINES CASE
DUO QIN, MARIE ANNE CAGAS, GEOFFREY DUCANES, NEDELYN MAGTIBAY-RAMOS, AND PILIPINAS QUISING
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22
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—Barry Eichengreen, January 2002
Policy-based Lending and Poverty Reduction:
An Overview of Processes, Assessment
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The Automotive Supply Chain: Global Trends
and Asian Perspectives
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International Competitiveness of Asian Firms:
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February 2002
The International Competitiveness of Asian
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Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East
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Probing Beneath Cross-national Averages: Poverty,
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Poverty, Growth, and Inequality in Thailand
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Microfinance in Northeast Thailand: Who Benefits
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Poverty Reduction and the Role of Institutions in
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The European Social Model: Lessons for
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Costs and Benefits of a Common Currency for
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Monetary Cooperation in East Asia: A Survey
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Toward A Political Economy Approach
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A Framework for Establishing Priorities in a
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July 2002
Effect of Decentralization Strategy on
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Poverty and Patterns of Growth
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Why are Some Countries Richer than Others?
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Modernization and Son Preference in People’s
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The Doha Agenda and Development: A View from
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Conceptual Issues in the Role of Education
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Promoting Effective Schooling through Education
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Financial Opening under the WTO Agreement in
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Revisiting Growth and Poverty Reduction in
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Causes of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: What
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—Juzhong Zhuang and J. Malcolm Dowling
October 2002
Digital Divide: Determinants and Policies with
Special Reference to Asia
—M. G. Quibria, Shamsun N. Ahmed, Ted
Tschang, and Mari-Len Reyes-Macasaquit
October 2002
Regional Cooperation in Asia: Long-term Progress,
Recent Retrogression, and the Way Forward
—Ramgopal Agarwala and Brahm Prakash
October 2002
No. 29
No. 30
No. 31
No. 32
No. 33
No. 34
No. 35
No. 36
No. 37
No. 38
No. 39
No. 40
No. 41
No. 42
No. 43
How can Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet
Nam Cope with Revenue Lost Due to AFTA Tariff
Reductions?
—Kanokpan Lao-Araya
November 2002
Asian Regionalism and Its Effects on Trade in the
1980s and 1990s
—Ramon Clarete, Christopher Edmonds, and
Jessica Seddon Wallack
November 2002
New Economy and the Effects of Industrial
Structures on International Equity Market
Correlations
—Cyn-Young Park and Jaejoon Woo
December 2002
Leading Indicators of Business Cycles in Malaysia
and the Philippines
—Wenda Zhang and Juzhong Zhuang
December 2002
Technological Spillovers from Foreign Direct
Investment—A Survey
—Emma Xiaoqin Fan
December 2002
Economic Openness and Regional Development in
the Philippines
—Ernesto M. Pernia and Pilipinas F. Quising
January 2003
Bond Market Development in East Asia:
Issues and Challenges
—Raul Fabella and Srinivasa Madhur
January 2003
Environment Statistics in Central Asia: Progress
and Prospects
—Robert Ballance and Bishnu D. Pant
March 2003
Electricity Demand in the People’s Republic of
China: Investment Requirement and
Environmental Impact
—Bo Q. Lin
March 2003
Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Asia:
Trends, Effects, and Likely Issues for the
Forthcoming WTO Negotiations
—Douglas H. Brooks, Emma Xiaoqin Fan,
and Lea R. Sumulong
April 2003
The Political Economy of Good Governance for
Poverty Alleviation Policies
—Narayan Lakshman
April 2003
The Puzzle of Social Capital
A Critical Review
—M. G. Quibria
May 2003
Industrial Structure, Technical Change, and the
Role of Government in Development of the
Electronics and Information Industry in
Taipei,China
—Yeo Lin
May 2003
Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction
in Viet Nam
—Arsenio M. Balisacan, Ernesto M. Pernia, and
Gemma Esther B. Estrada
June 2003
Why Has Income Inequality in Thailand
Increased? An Analysis Using 1975-1998 Surveys
—Taizo Motonishi
June 2003
No. 44
No. 45
No. 46
No. 47
No. 48
No. 49
No. 50
No. 51
No. 52
No. 53
No. 54
No. 55
No. 56
No. 57
No. 58
No. 59
24
Welfare Impacts of Electricity Generation Sector
Reform in the Philippines
—Natsuko Toba
June 2003
A Review of Commitment Savings Products in
Developing Countries
—Nava Ashraf, Nathalie Gons, Dean S. Karlan,
and Wesley Yin
July 2003
Local Government Finance, Private Resources,
and Local Credit Markets in Asia
—Roberto de Vera and Yun-Hwan Kim
October 2003
July 2003
Excess Investment and Efficiency Loss During
Reforms: The Case of Provincial-level Fixed-Asset
Investment in People’s Republic of China
—Duo Qin and Haiyan Song
October 2003
Is Export-led Growth Passe? Implications for
Developing Asia
—Jesus Felipe
December 2003
Changing Bank Lending Behavior and Corporate
Financing in Asia—Some Research Issues
—Emma Xiaoqin Fan and Akiko Terada-Hagiwara
December 2003
Is People’s Republic of China’s Rising Services
Sector Leading to Cost Disease?
—Duo Qin
March 2004
Poverty Estimates in India: Some Key Issues
—Savita Sharma
May 2004
Restructuring and Regulatory Reform in the Power
Sector: Review of Experience and Issues
—Peter Choynowski
May 2004
Competitiveness, Income Distribution, and Growth
in the Philippines: What Does the Long-run
Evidence Show?
—Jesus Felipe and Grace C. Sipin
June 2004
Practices of Poverty Measurement and Poverty
Profile of Bangladesh
—Faizuddin Ahmed
August 2004
Experience of Asian Asset Management
Companies: Do They Increase Moral Hazard?
—Evidence from Thailand
—Akiko Terada-Hagiwara and Gloria Pasadilla
September 2004
Viet Nam: Foreign Direct Investment and
Postcrisis Regional Integration
—Vittorio Leproux and Douglas H. Brooks
September 2004
Practices of Poverty Measurement and Poverty
Profile of Nepal
—Devendra Chhetry
September 2004
Monetary Poverty Estimates in Sri Lanka:
Selected Issues
—Neranjana Gunetilleke and Dinushka Senanayake
October 2004
Labor Market Distortions, Rural-Urban Inequality,
and the Opening of People’s Republic of China’s
Economy
—Thomas Hertel and Fan Zhai
November 2004
No. 60
No. 61
No. 62
Measuring Competitiveness in the World’s Smallest
Economies: Introducing the SSMECI
—Ganeshan Wignaraja and David Joiner
November 2004
Foreign Exchange Reserves, Exchange Rate
Regimes, and Monetary Policy: Issues in Asia
—Akiko Terada-Hagiwara
January 2005
A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine
Economy
—Geoffrey Ducanes, Marie Anne Cagas, Duo Qin,
Pilipinas Quising, and Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos
January 2005
No. 63
No. 64
Developing the Market for Local Currency Bonds
by Foreign Issuers: Lessons from Asia
—Tobias Hoschka
February 2005
Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and
Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines
Case
—Duo Qin, Marie Anne Cagas, Geoffrey Ducanes,
Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, and Pilipinas Quising
February 2005
ERD TECHNICAL NOTE SERIES (TNS)
(Published in-house; Available through ADB Office of External Relations; Free of Charge)
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
Contingency Calculations for Environmental
Impacts with Unknown Monetary Values
—David Dole
February 2002
Integrating Risk into ADB’s Economic Analysis
of Projects
—Nigel Rayner, Anneli Lagman-Martin,
and Keith Ward
June 2002
Measuring Willingness to Pay for Electricity
—Peter Choynowski
July 2002
Economic Issues in the Design and Analysis of a
Wastewater Treatment Project
—David Dole
July 2002
An Analysis and Case Study of the Role of
Environmental Economics at the Asian
Development Bank
—David Dole and Piya Abeygunawardena
September 2002
Economic Analysis of Health Projects: A Case Study
in Cambodia
No. 7
No. 8
No. 9
No. 10
No. 11
—Erik Bloom and Peter Choynowski
May 2003
Strengthening the Economic Analysis of Natural
Resource Management Projects
—Keith Ward
September 2003
Testing Savings Product Innovations Using an
Experimental Methodology
—Nava Ashraf, Dean S. Karlan, and Wesley Yin
November 2003
Setting User Charges for Public Services: Policies
and Practice at the Asian Development Bank
—David Dole
December 2003
Beyond Cost Recovery: Setting User Charges for
Financial, Economic, and Social Goals
—David Dole and Ian Bartlett
January 2004
Shadow Exchange Rates for Project Economic
Analysis: Toward Improving Practice at the Asian
Development Bank
—Anneli Lagman-Martin
February 2004
ERD POLICY BRIEF SERIES (PBS)
(Published in-house; Available through ADB Office of External Relations; Free of charge)
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
Is Growth Good Enough for the Poor?
—Ernesto M. Pernia, October 2001
India’s Economic Reforms
What Has Been Accomplished?
What Remains to Be Done?
—Arvind Panagariya, November 2001
Unequal Benefits of Growth in Viet Nam
—Indu Bhushan, Erik Bloom, and Nguyen Minh
Thang, January 2002
Is Volatility Built into Today’s World Economy?
—J. Malcolm Dowling and J.P. Verbiest,
February 2002
What Else Besides Growth Matters to Poverty
Reduction? Philippines
—Arsenio M. Balisacan and Ernesto M. Pernia,
February 2002
No. 7
No. 8
No. 9
25
Achieving the Twin Objectives of Efficiency and
Equity: Contracting Health Services in Cambodia
—Indu Bhushan, Sheryl Keller, and Brad Schwartz,
March 2002
Causes of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: What
Can an Early Warning System Model Tell Us?
—Juzhong Zhuang and Malcolm Dowling,
June 2002
The Role of Preferential Trading Arrangements
in Asia
—Christopher Edmonds and Jean-Pierre Verbiest,
July 2002
The Doha Round: A Development Perspective
—Jean-Pierre Verbiest, Jeffrey Liang, and Lea
Sumulong
July 2002
No. 10
No. 11
No. 12
Is Economic Openness Good for Regional
Development and Poverty Reduction? The
Philippines
—E. M. Pernia and P. F. Quising
October 2002
Implications of a US Dollar Depreciation for Asian
Developing Countries
—Emma Fan
July 2002
Dangers of Deflation
—D. Brooks and P. F. Quising
No. 22
No. 23
No. 25
No. 26
December 2002
No. 13
No. 14
No. 15
No. 16
No. 17
No. 18
No. 19
No. 20
No. 21
Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction—
What is the Connection?
—I. Ali and E. Pernia
January 2003
Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction—
Making Markets Work for the Poor
—Xianbin Yao
May 2003
SARS: Economic Impacts and Implications
—Emma Xiaoqin Fan
May 2003
Emerging Tax Issues: Implications of Globalization
and Technology
—Kanokpan Lao Araya
May 2003
Pro-Poor Growth: What is It and Why is It
Important?
—Ernesto M. Pernia
May 2003
Public–Private Partnership for Competitiveness
—Jesus Felipe
June 2003
Reviving Asian Economic Growth Requires Further
Reforms
—Ifzal Ali
June 2003
The Millennium Development Goals and Poverty:
Are We Counting the World’s Poor Right?
—M. G. Quibria
July 2003
Trade and Poverty: What are the Connections?
—Douglas H. Brooks
July 2003
No. 27
No. 28
No. 29
No. 30
No. 31
32
33
Adapting Education to the Global Economy
—Olivier Dupriez
September 2003
Avian Flu: An Economic Assessment for Selected
Developing Countries in Asia
—Jean-Pierre Verbiest and Charissa Castillo
March 2004
Purchasing Power Parities and the International
Comparison Program in a Globalized World
—Bishnu Pant
March 2004
A Note on Dual/Multiple Exchange Rates
—Emma Xiaoqin Fan
May 2004
Inclusive Growth for Sustainable Poverty Reduction
in Developing Asia: The Enabling Role of
Infrastructure Development
—Ifzal Ali and Xianbin Yao
May 2004
Higher Oil Prices: Asian Perspectives and
Implications for 2004-2005
—Cyn-Young Park
June 2004
Accelerating Agriculture and Rural Development for
Inclusive Growth: Policy Implications for
Developing Asia
—Richard Bolt
July 2004
Living with Higher Interest Rates: Is Asia Ready?
—Cyn-Young Park
August 2004
Reserve Accumulation, Sterilization, and Policy
Dilemma
—Akiko Terada-Hagiwara
October 2004
The Primacy of Reforms in the Emergence of
People’s Republic of China and India
—Ifzal Ali and Emma Xiaoqin Fan
November 2004
Population Health and Foreign Direct Investment:
Does Poor Health Signal Poor Government
Effectiveness?
—Ajay Tandon
January 2005
SERIALS
(Co-published with Oxford University Press; Available commercially through Oxford University Press
Offices, Associated Companies, and Agents)
1.
Asian Development Outlook (ADO; annual)
$36.00 (paperback)
2.
Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries (KI; annual)
$35.00 (paperback)
JOURNAL
(Published in-house; Available commercially through ADB Office of External Relations)
1.
Asian Development Review (ADR; semiannual)
$5.00 per issue; $8.00 per year (2 issues)
26
MONOGRAPH SERIES
(Published in-house; Available through ADB Office of External Relations; Free of charge)
EDRC REPORT SERIES (ER)
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
No. 8
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No. 21
ASEAN and the Asian Development Bank
—Seiji Naya, April 1982
Development Issues for the Developing East
and Southeast Asian Countries
and International Cooperation
—Seiji Naya and Graham Abbott, April 1982
Aid, Savings, and Growth in the Asian Region
—J. Malcolm Dowling and Ulrich Hiemenz,
April 1982
Development-oriented Foreign Investment
and the Role of ADB
—Kiyoshi Kojima, April 1982
The Multilateral Development Banks
and the International Economy’s Missing
Public Sector
—John Lewis, June 1982
Notes on External Debt of DMCs
—Evelyn Go, July 1982
Grant Element in Bank Loans
—Dal Hyun Kim, July 1982
Shadow Exchange Rates and Standard
Conversion Factors in Project Evaluation
—Peter Warr, September 1982
Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
Establishments in ASEAN Countries:
Perspectives and Policy Issues
—Mathias Bruch and Ulrich Hiemenz,
January 1983
A Note on the Third Ministerial Meeting of GATT
—Jungsoo Lee, January 1983
Macroeconomic Forecasts for the Republic
of China, Hong Kong, and Republic of Korea
—J.M. Dowling, January 1983
ASEAN: Economic Situation and Prospects
—Seiji Naya, March 1983
The Future Prospects for the Developing
Countries of Asia
—Seiji Naya, March 1983
Energy and Structural Change in the AsiaPacific Region, Summary of the Thirteenth
Pacific Trade and Development Conference
—Seiji Naya, March 1983
A Survey of Empirical Studies on Demand
for Electricity with Special Emphasis on Price
Elasticity of Demand
—Wisarn Pupphavesa, June 1983
Determinants of Paddy Production in Indonesia:
1972-1981–A Simultaneous Equation Model
Approach
—T.K. Jayaraman, June 1983
The Philippine Economy: Economic
Forecasts for 1983 and 1984
—J.M. Dowling, E. Go, and C.N. Castillo,
June 1983
Economic Forecast for Indonesia
—J.M. Dowling, H.Y. Kim, Y.K. Wang,
and C.N. Castillo, June 1983
Relative External Debt Situation of Asian
Developing Countries: An Application
of Ranking Method
—Jungsoo Lee, June 1983
New Evidence on Yields, Fertilizer Application,
and Prices in Asian Rice Production
—William James and Teresita Ramirez, July 1983
Inflationary Effects of Exchange Rate
Changes in Nine Asian LDCs
—Pradumna B. Rana and J. Malcolm Dowling,
Jr., December 1983
No. 22
No. 23
No. 24
No. 25
No. 26
No. 27
No. 28
No. 29
No. 30
No. 31
No. 32
No. 33
No. 34
No. 35
No. 36
No. 37
No. 38
No. 39
No. 40
No. 41
No. 42
27
Effects of External Shocks on the Balance
of Payments, Policy Responses, and Debt
Problems of Asian Developing Countries
—Seiji Naya, December 1983
Changing Trade Patterns and Policy Issues:
The Prospects for East and Southeast Asian
Developing Countries
—Seiji Naya and Ulrich Hiemenz, February 1984
Small-Scale Industries in Asian Economic
Development: Problems and Prospects
—Seiji Naya, February 1984
A Study on the External Debt Indicators
Applying Logit Analysis
—Jungsoo Lee and Clarita Barretto,
February 1984
Alternatives to Institutional Credit Programs
in the Agricultural Sector of Low-Income
Countries
—Jennifer Sour, March 1984
Economic Scene in Asia and Its Special Features
—Kedar N. Kohli, November 1984
The Effect of Terms of Trade Changes on the
Balance of Payments and Real National
Income of Asian Developing Countries
—Jungsoo Lee and Lutgarda Labios, January 1985
Cause and Effect in the World Sugar Market:
Some Empirical Findings 1951-1982
—Yoshihiro Iwasaki, February 1985
Sources of Balance of Payments Problem
in the 1970s: The Asian Experience
—Pradumna Rana, February 1985
India’s Manufactured Exports: An Analysis
of Supply Sectors
—Ifzal Ali, February 1985
Meeting Basic Human Needs in Asian
Developing Countries
—Jungsoo Lee and Emma Banaria, March 1985
The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflow
on Investment and Economic Growth
in Developing Asia
—Evelyn Go, May 1985
The Climate for Energy Development
in the Pacific and Asian Region:
Priorities and Perspectives
—V.V. Desai, April 1986
Impact of Appreciation of the Yen on
Developing Member Countries of the Bank
—Jungsoo Lee, Pradumna Rana, and Ifzal Ali,
May 1986
Smuggling and Domestic Economic Policies
in Developing Countries
—A.H.M.N. Chowdhury, October 1986
Public Investment Criteria: Economic Internal
Rate of Return and Equalizing Discount Rate
—Ifzal Ali, November 1986
Review of the Theory of Neoclassical Political
Economy: An Application to Trade Policies
—M.G. Quibria, December 1986
Factors Influencing the Choice of Location:
Local and Foreign Firms in the Philippines
—E.M. Pernia and A.N. Herrin, February 1987
A Demographic Perspective on Developing
Asia and Its Relevance to the Bank
—E.M. Pernia, May 1987
Emerging Issues in Asia and Social Cost
Benefit Analysis
—I. Ali, September 1988
Shifting Revealed Comparative Advantage:
No. 43
No. 44
No. 45
No. 46
No. 47
No. 48
No. 49
No. 50
No. 51
No. 52
No. 53
No. 54
No. 55
Experiences of Asian and Pacific Developing
Countries
—P.B. Rana, November 1988
Agricultural Price Policy in Asia:
Issues and Areas of Reforms
—I. Ali, November 1988
Service Trade and Asian Developing Economies
—M.G. Quibria, October 1989
A Review of the Economic Analysis of Power
Projects in Asia and Identification of Areas
of Improvement
—I. Ali, November 1989
Growth Perspective and Challenges for Asia:
Areas for Policy Review and Research
—I. Ali, November 1989
An Approach to Estimating the Poverty
Alleviation Impact of an Agricultural Project
—I. Ali, January 1990
Economic Growth Performance of Indonesia,
the Philippines, and Thailand:
The Human Resource Dimension
—E.M. Pernia, January 1990
Foreign Exchange and Fiscal Impact of a Project:
A Methodological Framework for Estimation
—I. Ali, February 1990
Public Investment Criteria: Financial
and Economic Internal Rates of Return
—I. Ali, April 1990
Evaluation of Water Supply Projects:
An Economic Framework
—Arlene M. Tadle, June 1990
Interrelationship Between Shadow Prices, Project
Investment, and Policy Reforms:
An Analytical Framework
—I. Ali, November 1990
Issues in Assessing the Impact of Project
and Sector Adjustment Lending
—I. Ali, December 1990
Some Aspects of Urbanization
and the Environment in Southeast Asia
—Ernesto M. Pernia, January 1991
Financial Sector and Economic
Development: A Survey
—Jungsoo Lee, September 1991
No. 56
No. 57
No. 58
No. 59
No. 60
No. 61
No. 62
No. 63
No. 64
No. 65
No. 66
No. 67
A Framework for Justifying Bank-Assisted
Education Projects in Asia: A Review
of the Socioeconomic Analysis
and Identification of Areas of Improvement
—Etienne Van De Walle, February 1992
Medium-term Growth-Stabilization
Relationship in Asian Developing Countries
and Some Policy Considerations
—Yun-Hwan Kim, February 1993
Urbanization, Population Distribution,
and Economic Development in Asia
—Ernesto M. Pernia, February 1993
The Need for Fiscal Consolidation in Nepal:
The Results of a Simulation
—Filippo di Mauro and Ronald Antonio Butiong,
July 1993
A Computable General Equilibrium Model
of Nepal
—Timothy Buehrer and Filippo di Mauro,
October 1993
The Role of Government in Export Expansion
in the Republic of Korea: A Revisit
—Yun-Hwan Kim, February 1994
Rural Reforms, Structural Change,
and Agricultural Growth in
the People’s Republic of China
—Bo Lin, August 1994
Incentives and Regulation for Pollution Abatement
with an Application to Waste Water Treatment
—Sudipto Mundle, U. Shankar,
and Shekhar Mehta, October 1995
Saving Transitions in Southeast Asia
—Frank Harrigan, February 1996
Total Factor Productivity Growth in East Asia:
A Critical Survey
—Jesus Felipe, September 1997
Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan:
Policy Issues and Operational Implications
—Ashfaque H. Khan and Yun-Hwan Kim,
July 1999
Fiscal Policy, Income Distribution and Growth
—Sailesh K. Jha, November 1999
ECONOMIC STAFF PAPERS (ES)
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
International Reserves:
Factors Determining Needs and Adequacy
—Evelyn Go, May 1981
Domestic Savings in Selected Developing
Asian Countries
—Basil Moore, assisted by
A.H.M. Nuruddin Chowdhury, September 1981
Changes in Consumption, Imports and Exports
of Oil Since 1973: A Preliminary Survey of
the Developing Member Countries
of the Asian Development Bank
—Dal Hyun Kim and Graham Abbott,
September 1981
By-Passed Areas, Regional Inequalities,
and Development Policies in Selected
Southeast Asian Countries
—William James, October 1981
Asian Agriculture and Economic Development
—William James, March 1982
Inflation in Developing Member Countries:
An Analysis of Recent Trends
—A.H.M. Nuruddin Chowdhury and
J. Malcolm Dowling, March 1982
Industrial Growth and Employment in
Developing Asian Countries: Issues and
No. 8
No. 9
No. 10
No. 11
No. 12
No. 13
No. 14
28
Perspectives for the Coming Decade
—Ulrich Hiemenz, March 1982
Petrodollar Recycling 1973-1980.
Part 1: Regional Adjustments and
the World Economy
—Burnham Campbell, April 1982
Developing Asia: The Importance
of Domestic Policies
—Economics Office Staff under the direction
of Seiji Naya, May 1982
Financial Development and Household
Savings: Issues in Domestic Resource
Mobilization in Asian Developing Countries
—Wan-Soon Kim, July 1982
Industrial Development: Role of Specialized
Financial Institutions
—Kedar N. Kohli, August 1982
Petrodollar Recycling 1973-1980.
Part II: Debt Problems and an Evaluation
of Suggested Remedies
—Burnham Campbell, September 1982
Credit Rationing, Rural Savings, and Financial
Policy in Developing Countries
—William James, September 1982
Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
No. 15
No. 16
No. 17
No. 18
No. 19
No. 20
No. 21
No. 22
No. 23
No. 24
No. 25
No. 26
No. 27
No. 28
No. 29
No. 30
No. 31
No. 32
No. 33
No. 34
No. 35
No. 36
No. 37
No. 38
Establishments in ASEAN Countries:
Perspectives and Policy Issues
—Mathias Bruch and Ulrich Hiemenz, March 1983
Income Distribution and Economic
Growth in Developing Asian Countries
—J. Malcolm Dowling and David Soo, March 1983
Long-Run Debt-Servicing Capacity of
Asian Developing Countries: An Application
of Critical Interest Rate Approach
—Jungsoo Lee, June 1983
External Shocks, Energy Policy,
and Macroeconomic Performance of Asian
Developing Countries: A Policy Analysis
—William James, July 1983
The Impact of the Current Exchange Rate
System on Trade and Inflation of Selected
Developing Member Countries
—Pradumna Rana, September 1983
Asian Agriculture in Transition: Key Policy Issues
—William James, September 1983
The Transition to an Industrial Economy
in Monsoon Asia
—Harry T. Oshima, October 1983
The Significance of Off-Farm Employment
and Incomes in Post-War East Asian Growth
—Harry T. Oshima, January 1984
Income Distribution and Poverty in Selected
Asian Countries
—John Malcolm Dowling, Jr., November 1984
ASEAN Economies and ASEAN Economic
Cooperation
—Narongchai Akrasanee, November 1984
Economic Analysis of Power Projects
—Nitin Desai, January 1985
Exports and Economic Growth in the Asian Region
—Pradumna Rana, February 1985
Patterns of External Financing of DMCs
—E. Go, May 1985
Industrial Technology Development
the Republic of Korea
—S.Y. Lo, July 1985
Risk Analysis and Project Selection:
A Review of Practical Issues
—J.K. Johnson, August 1985
Rice in Indonesia: Price Policy and Comparative
Advantage
—I. Ali, January 1986
Effects of Foreign Capital Inflows
on Developing Countries of Asia
—Jungsoo Lee, Pradumna B. Rana,
and Yoshihiro Iwasaki, April 1986
Economic Analysis of the Environmental
Impacts of Development Projects
—John A. Dixon et al., EAPI,
East-West Center, August 1986
Science and Technology for Development:
Role of the Bank
—Kedar N. Kohli and Ifzal Ali, November 1986
Satellite Remote Sensing in the Asian
and Pacific Region
—Mohan Sundara Rajan, December 1986
Changes in the Export Patterns of Asian and
Pacific Developing Countries: An Empirical
Overview
—Pradumna B. Rana, January 1987
Agricultural Price Policy in Nepal
—Gerald C. Nelson, March 1987
Implications of Falling Primary Commodity
Prices for Agricultural Strategy in the Philippines
—Ifzal Ali, September 1987
Determining Irrigation Charges: A Framework
—Prabhakar B. Ghate, October 1987
The Role of Fertilizer Subsidies in Agricultural
Production: A Review of Select Issues
—M.G. Quibria, October 1987
No. 39
No. 40
No. 41
No. 42
No. 43
No. 44
No. 45
No. 46
No. 47
No. 48
No. 49
No. 50
No. 51
No. 52
No. 53
No. 54
No. 55
No. 56
No. 57
No. 58
No. 59
No. 60
29
Domestic Adjustment to External Shocks
in Developing Asia
—Jungsoo Lee, October 1987
Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization
through Financial Development: Indonesia
—Philip Erquiaga, November 1987
Recent Trends and Issues on Foreign Direct
Investment in Asian and Pacific Developing
Countries
—P.B. Rana, March 1988
Manufactured Exports from the Philippines:
A Sector Profile and an Agenda for Reform
—I. Ali, September 1988
A Framework for Evaluating the Economic
Benefits of Power Projects
—I. Ali, August 1989
Promotion of Manufactured Exports in Pakistan
—Jungsoo Lee and Yoshihiro Iwasaki,
September 1989
Education and Labor Markets in Indonesia:
A Sector Survey
—Ernesto M. Pernia and David N. Wilson,
September 1989
Industrial Technology Capabilities
and Policies in Selected ADCs
—Hiroshi Kakazu, June 1990
Designing Strategies and Policies
for Managing Structural Change in Asia
—Ifzal Ali, June 1990
The Completion of the Single European Community
Market in 1992: A Tentative Assessment of its
Impact on Asian Developing Countries
—J.P. Verbiest and Min Tang, June 1991
Economic Analysis of Investment in Power Systems
—Ifzal Ali, June 1991
External Finance and the Role of Multilateral
Financial Institutions in South Asia:
Changing Patterns, Prospects, and Challenges
—Jungsoo Lee, November 1991
The Gender and Poverty Nexus: Issues and
Policies
—M.G. Quibria, November 1993
The Role of the State in Economic Development:
Theory, the East Asian Experience,
and the Malaysian Case
—Jason Brown, December 1993
The Economic Benefits of Potable Water Supply
Projects to Households in Developing Countries
—Dale Whittington and Venkateswarlu Swarna,
January 1994
Growth Triangles: Conceptual Issues
and Operational Problems
—Min Tang and Myo Thant, February 1994
The Emerging Global Trading Environment
and Developing Asia
—Arvind Panagariya, M.G. Quibria,
and Narhari Rao, July 1996
Aspects of Urban Water and Sanitation in
the Context of Rapid Urbanization in
Developing Asia
—Ernesto M. Pernia and Stella LF. Alabastro,
September 1997
Challenges for Asia’s Trade and Environment
—Douglas H. Brooks, January 1998
Economic Analysis of Health Sector ProjectsA Review of Issues, Methods, and Approaches
—Ramesh Adhikari, Paul Gertler, and
Anneli Lagman, March 1999
The Asian Crisis: An Alternate View
—Rajiv Kumar and Bibek Debroy, July 1999
Social Consequences of the Financial Crisis in
Asia
—James C. Knowles, Ernesto M. Pernia, and
Mary Racelis, November 1999
OCCASIONAL PAPERS (OP)
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
No. 8
No. 9
No. 10
No. 11
Poverty in the People’s Republic of China:
Recent Developments and Scope
for Bank Assistance
—K.H. Moinuddin, November 1992
The Eastern Islands of Indonesia: An Overview
of Development Needs and Potential
—Brien K. Parkinson, January 1993
Rural Institutional Finance in Bangladesh
and Nepal: Review and Agenda for Reforms
—A.H.M.N. Chowdhury and Marcelia C. Garcia,
November 1993
Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Imbalances
of the South Pacific Countries:
A Case Study of Vanuatu
—T.K. Jayaraman, December 1993
Reforms in the Transitional Economies of Asia
—Pradumna B. Rana, December 1993
Environmental Challenges in the People’s Republic
of China and Scope for Bank Assistance
—Elisabetta Capannelli and Omkar L. Shrestha,
December 1993
Sustainable Development Environment
and Poverty Nexus
—K.F. Jalal, December 1993
Intermediate Services and Economic
Development: The Malaysian Example
—Sutanu Behuria and Rahul Khullar, May 1994
Interest Rate Deregulation: A Brief Survey
of the Policy Issues and the Asian Experience
—Carlos J. Glower, July 1994
Some Aspects of Land Administration
in Indonesia: Implications for Bank Operations
—Sutanu Behuria, July 1994
Demographic and Socioeconomic Determinants
of Contraceptive Use among Urban Women in
the Melanesian Countries in the South Pacific:
A Case Study of Port Vila Town in Vanuatu
—T.K. Jayaraman, February 1995
No. 12
No. 13
No. 14
No. 15
No. 16
No. 17
No. 18
No. 19
No. 20
No. 21
No. 22
Managing Development through
Institution Building
— Hilton L. Root, October 1995
Growth, Structural Change, and Optimal
Poverty Interventions
—Shiladitya Chatterjee, November 1995
Private Investment and Macroeconomic
Environment in the South Pacific Island
Countries: A Cross-Country Analysis
—T.K. Jayaraman, October 1996
The Rural-Urban Transition in Viet Nam:
Some Selected Issues
—Sudipto Mundle and Brian Van Arkadie,
October 1997
A New Approach to Setting the Future
Transport Agenda
—Roger Allport, Geoff Key, and Charles Melhuish
June 1998
Adjustment and Distribution:
The Indian Experience
—Sudipto Mundle and V.B. Tulasidhar, June 1998
Tax Reforms in Viet Nam: A Selective Analysis
—Sudipto Mundle, December 1998
Surges and Volatility of Private Capital Flows to
Asian Developing Countries: Implications
for Multilateral Development Banks
—Pradumna B. Rana, December 1998
The Millennium Round and the Asian Economies:
An Introduction
—Dilip K. Das, October 1999
Occupational Segregation and the Gender
Earnings Gap
—Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr. and Yana van der Meulen
Rodgers, December 1999
Information Technology: Next Locomotive of
Growth?
—Dilip K. Das, June 2000
STATISTICAL REPORT SERIES (SR)
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
No. 8
No. 9
Estimates of the Total External Debt of
the Developing Member Countries of ADB:
1981-1983
—I.P. David, September 1984
Multivariate Statistical and Graphical
Classification Techniques Applied
to the Problem of Grouping Countries
—I.P. David and D.S. Maligalig, March 1985
Gross National Product (GNP) Measurement
Issues in South Pacific Developing Member
Countries of ADB
—S.G. Tiwari, September 1985
Estimates of Comparable Savings in Selected
DMCs
—Hananto Sigit, December 1985
Keeping Sample Survey Design
and Analysis Simple
—I.P. David, December 1985
External Debt Situation in Asian
Developing Countries
—I.P. David and Jungsoo Lee, March 1986
Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the
South Pacific Developing Member Countries.
Part I: Existing National Accounts
of SPDMCs–Analysis of Methodology
and Application of SNA Concepts
—P. Hodgkinson, October 1986
Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the South
Pacific Developing Member Countries.
Part II: Factors Affecting Intercountry
Comparability of Per Capita GNP
—P. Hodgkinson, October 1986
Survey of the External Debt Situation
No. 10
No. 11
No. 12
No. 13
No. 14
No. 15
No. 16
No. 17
No. 18
30
in Asian Developing Countries, 1985
—Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1987
A Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian Developing Countries, 1986
—Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1988
Changing Pattern of Financial Flows to Asian
and Pacific Developing Countries
—Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, March 1989
The State of Agricultural Statistics in
Southeast Asia
—I.P. David, March 1989
A Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian and Pacific Developing Countries:
1987-1988
—Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, July 1989
A Survey of the External Debt Situation in
Asian and Pacific Developing Countries: 1988-1989
—Jungsoo Lee, May 1990
A Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian and Pacific Developing Countries: 19891992
—Min Tang, June 1991
Recent Trends and Prospects of External Debt
Situation and Financial Flows to Asian
and Pacific Developing Countries
—Min Tang and Aludia Pardo, June 1992
Purchasing Power Parity in Asian Developing
Countries: A Co-Integration Test
—Min Tang and Ronald Q. Butiong, April 1994
Capital Flows to Asian and Pacific Developing
Countries: Recent Trends and Future Prospects
—Min Tang and James Villafuerte, October 1995
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Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
Financial Development: Overview September 1985
Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
Financial Development: Bangladesh July 1986
Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
Financial Development: Sri Lanka April 1987
Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
Financial Development: India December 1987
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Overview January 1988
Study of Selected Industries: A Brief Report
April 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Bangladesh June 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: India June 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Indonesia June 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Nepal June 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Pakistan June 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Philippines June 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Thailand June 1988
Towards Regional Cooperation in South Asia:
ADB/EWC Symposium on Regional Cooperation
in South Asia February 1988
Evaluating Rice Market Intervention Policies:
Some Asian Examples April 1988
Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
Financial Development: Nepal November 1988
Foreign Trade Barriers and Export Growth
September 1988
The Role of Small and Medium-Scale Industries in the
Industrial Development of the Philippines
April 1989
19. The Role of Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
Industries in Industrial Development: The Experience of
Selected Asian Countries
January 1990
20. National Accounts of Vanuatu, 1983-1987
January 1990
21. National Accounts of Western Samoa, 1984-1986
February 1990
22. Human Resource Policy and Economic
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July 1990
23. Export Finance: Some Asian Examples
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24. National Accounts of the Cook Islands, 1982-1986
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25. Framework for the Economic and Financial Appraisal of
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26. Framework and Criteria for the Appraisal
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27. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of
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28. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Water Supply Projects
Asian Development Bank, 1998
29. Investing in Asia
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30. The Future of Asia in the World Economy
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31. Financial Liberalisation in Asia: Analysis and Prospects
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32. Sustainable Recovery in Asia: Mobilizing Resources for
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33. Technology and Poverty Reduction in Asia and the Pacific
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34. Asia and Europe
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33