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Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Report to the National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy Prepared by: Peter Lee Edited by: Jeannette Gysbers Maps: Zoran Stanojevic Cover Design and Report Layout: Jeannette Gysbers Edmonton, Alberta, Canada ISBN: 0-9734210-4-5 ©Global Forest Watch Canada, 2004 Citation: Lee, P. 2004. Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues and Projections. Report to the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy. Global Forest Watch Canada. Edmonton. 77 pp. Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Acknowledgements Some of the content of the sections on the state of the ecosystem and the state of industry was derived from an earlier draft paper about boreal Canada by the author. Global Forest Watch Canada wishes to thank the advisors, reviewers and contributors to this earlier draft paper. They include: Dr. Stan Rowe, Dr. David W. Schindler, Dr. Richard Thomas, Dr. Eric Butterworth, Dr. Richard Schneider, Herb Hammond, Dr. Jay Malcolm, Dr. Justina Ray, Dr. Fiona Schmiegelow, Sherri Watson, Dr. Kevin Timoney, Dr. Stan Boutin, Phil Lee, Anne Janssen, and Lisa Semenchuk. The draft paper Forest Conservation in Canada: A Summary of Issues and Opportunities, by the Canadian Environmental Grantmakers’ Network; several reports by Global Forest Watch Canada, especially Canada’s Forests at a Crossroads: An Assessment in the Year 2000; and several Natural Resources Canada publications, especially from the Canadian Forest Service (e.g., Forest Health: Context for the Canadian Forest Services Science Program) provided an important base of information, especially for the section on emerging issues. Global Forest Watch Canada wishes to thank the following contributors and reviewers of the sections on emerging issues, projections and solution themes: Dr. Kevin Timoney, Dr. Rick Schneider, Jim Pojar, Peter Sandiford, Richard Brooks and Martin Von Mirbach. This report is dedicated to Stan Rowe. Photo Credits Pages 7 (moose), 16 (snow), and 49 (canoeist): Alberta Community Development Page 37 (pump jacks): Charles Truscott All other photographs: Global Forest Watch Canada 1 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Table of Contents Summary................................................................................................................................................ 3 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 4 State of the Ecosystem ........................................................................................................................ 6 What is the boreal ecosystem? ............................................................................................................... 6 What is happening to boreal Canada? ................................................................................................12 What is boreal Canada’s state of health? ............................................................................................18 State of Industry .................................................................................................................................26 Economic importance of industry in boreal Canada .............................................................................26 Scan of industries operating in boreal Canada .....................................................................................27 Emerging Issues and Projections.....................................................................................................34 Main issues / regional issues / case study areas ..................................................................................34 What are the likely directions of industrial activity in the boreal in the next 5-10 years? ......................48 Solution Themes.................................................................................................................................49 Review Process ...................................................................................................................................50 Map Section ........................................................................................................................................51 Notes and References........................................................................................................................62 2 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Summary At the global level, the boreal region represents Earth’s most extensive terrestrial biome. Canada’s boreal region is almost as large as the combined area of Canada’s ten provinces. It is a key part of the national identity of Canadians, and is the only biome that is almost trans-Canadian, linking Canada as a nation. The boreal region is vitally important to Canadians — economically, environmentally, and culturally. This paper on Boreal Canada describes the state of the boreal ecosystem, including key aspects of its ecology, key threats, and its state of health. It also discusses emerging issues, the relative importance of industry, and future projections. Although the ecology of Canada’s boreal region remains poorly understood, realization is growing that it supports an important range of ecological diversity, structures and functions. Both the Canadian and global human economies are dependent upon the ecological services provided by the boreal region, including climate regulation and carbon storage. Canada’s boreal ecosystems are more intact compared to most other countries that contain boreal 1 biomes, but the increasing world demand for forest products and energy is accelerating development pressure on these systems. The boreal is increasingly impacted by human activity, especially in the south. The cumulative impacts of these activities remain largely unstudied. Some of the dominant industrial activities that impact Canada’s boreal region include logging and pulp, paper and saw mills operations, agriculture, oil and gas exploration and development, and mining. Power generation and water storage and the pollution-emitting heartland of North America also have significant impacts on Canada’s boreal. Other impacts include settlements and transportation corridors, aggregate extraction, intensification of recreation activities, peat mining and burning for power generation, active fire suppression and wildlife management. Forestry, minerals and energy contribute a substantial amount to Canada’s Gross Domestic Product, balance of trade and employment. A significant portion of this amount comes from the boreal. Many communities in Canada’s boreal region depend on logging, mining or oil and gas exploration and developments but the economies of such communities are generally less diverse than those in more southern locales. Many of Canada’s Aboriginal peoples reside in the boreal. Ecological changes to the boreal in the next 5 to 10 years will likely include greatly increased habitat fragmentation, due mainly to logging throughout the southern boreal and oil and gas (especially in the western boreal), fisheries declines, forest conversions from softwoods to hardwoods and from treed areas to shrublands and grasslands, and pressures on sensitive species. Climate change “trumps all;” it may well have the most significant impacts. Some of the key emerging political issues include: increasing influence of Aboriginal peoples, increasing global trade competitionand protectionism, market actions that target the logging industry, substantial changes to forest management policies, protection and sustainable development advances, regional energy developments, and alternative economic generators such as tourism. The major themes that will likely drive solutions toward greater environmental and economic integration in boreal Canada include: a) emerging Aboriginal leadership, b) market paradigm shifts, c) emerging economies, and d) improving government leadership. 3 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Introduction Canada’s boreal region is almost as large as the combined area of Canada’s ten provinces. It sweeps across the country and links Canada as a nation.2 At the global level, the boreal biome represents Earth’s most extensive terrestrial ecosystem type.3 After Russia, Canada contains the largest area of closed-canopy forests in the world; 4 most of these forests are in the southern boreal region. Large, ecologically intact areas in the boreal region support a wide range of biological diversity and supply critical ecological services, including climate regulation and carbon storage.5 The boreal region contains numerous natural features and processes of major importance to the conservation of national and global ecosystems, ameliorates climate and stores carbon, and is key to the economies of its regions and nations. This is hardly surprising given its size, extent, and variation in terms of its geology, geomorphology, climate, vegetation, soils, flora and fauna. Recently, the boreal biome has become the world’s main source of industrial wood and pulp,6 and it is increasingly important for other industrial uses such as hydroelectricity, petroleum exploration and development and agricultural activities. As such, it is experiencing a wide range of accompanying, rapidly escalating, human activities. This paper describes the state of the boreal ecosystem, including key aspects of its ecology, key threats, its state of health, the relative importance of industry, and emerging issues and future projections. 4 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 2 Box 1. Summary of the ecological importance of boreal Canada7 Canada’s boreal is home to one of the largest remaining intact forest ecosystems in the world: 8 2 Canada’s boreal region is home to more than 90 percent of the country’s remaining large intact forestlands. 2 Covering more than a half billion hectares (about 1.3 billion acres) and 53 percent of Canada’s land mass, the boreal region forms a broad green belt across the centre of the country, stretching from Newfoundland to the Yukon. 2 It represents 25 percent of the world’s remaining large intact forests. 2 Thirty percent of it is covered by wetlands (consisting of bogs, fens, marshes), an estimated 1.5 million lakes, and some of the country’s largest river systems. Canada’s boreal contains 35 percent of the world’s wetlands and has the largest coverage of peatlands in the world. Canada’s boreal wetlands comprise over 40 percent of the world’s Wetlands of International Importance. Canada’s boreal is biologically important: 2 The boreal forest houses some of the world’s largest remaining populations of woodland caribou, wolves and bears. 2 The boreal region is a rich habitat for migratory songbirds. More than 1 billion birds migrate north to breed after wintering in warmer climates. Just a few square kilometers of mixed boreal forest may support 600 breeding pairs of these long-distance travelers. 2 More than 75 percent of North America’s waterfowl rely on Canada’s boreal wetlands and forests at some point in their lives for breeding, staging and molting. Canada’s boreal plays an invaluable role in providing key environmental services: 2 The boreal region filters water, produces oxygen, rebuilds soils and restores nutrients, holds back floodwaters and releases needed water into rivers and streams, and provides food and shelter for hundreds of species, big and small, including humans. 2 Canada’s boreal region plays a particularly vital role in mitigating the impacts of climate change. Boreal forests and wetlands store massive amounts of carbon, and make up one of the planet’s few intact natural areas still big enough to help buffer the changes in habitat that climate change will bring about. 5 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections State of the Ecosystem What is the boreal ecosystem? Definition and extent Named after Boreas, the Greek god of the North Wind, the boreal biome is also known by the Russian term taiga. The latter generally refers to a coniferous northern forest containing no deciduous trees other than birches and poplars.9 Although technically the term “boreal” should be limited to the closed canopy portion of this forest biome, in practice it usually also includes areas in the subarctic and sometimes subalpine woodland ecozones. In this paper, the term “boreal” refers to both the boreal and taiga ecozones, as defined by the Government of Canada’s terrestrial ecozones. The northern treeline and the dividing line between the boreal and taiga ecozones are not sharp, but occupy wide transition areas.10 The seven terrestrial ecozones that comprise the boreal are the Boreal Shield, Boreal Plains, Taiga Shield, Taiga Plains, Hudson Plains, Boreal Cordillera and Taiga Cordillera. 11 The boreal occupies more than 60 percent of the total forested area of Canada and Alaska. Forested areas are a combination of trees and open areas that comprise a “forest” biome. With a north-south extent of about 1,200 kilometres, the 5.3 million square kilometre boreal region of 12 Canada comprises up to 53 percent of the nation’s total land area and is its largest ecosystem. Key environmental factors and ecological processes 13 Several major environmental factors and ecological processes unify Canada’s boreal region. Many of these key environmental factors and ecological processes are not unique to boreal ecosystems, but they interact to form the unique mosaic-like pattern (at a hierarchy of scales) of heterogeneous habitat that characterizes the boreal region. These key environmental factors and ecological processes include cold climate, low solar radiation, snow and species adaptations, dry to saturated cold soils, permafrost in the north, predominance of 14 lichens and mosses, hydrology, lake turnover, herbivory and predation. Natural disturbances are an important category of ecological processes in the boreal. Senescence and death of individual trees and small groups of trees (i.e., gap dynamics), windthrow, flooding, insect outbreaks, and wildfires are the 15 important disturbance events of the boreal region. Characteristic ecosystems Canada’s boreal region can best be categorized within four major ecosystem types: (1) upland forests; (2) wetlands; (3) river valley systems; (4) lakes and ponds. Upland boreal forests have low tree species diversity.16 Boreal uplands exhibit gradual north-south and east-west changes in vegetation composition, primarily in response to variations in climatic factors. The northernmost portion of the boreal region consists of a pattern of tundra “barrens” and patches of stunted forest; the latter usually (but not exclusively) occur along the shore of lakes and rivers and 6 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections the former are found on the upland interfluves. The pattern shows a gradient change from south to north as forests shrink and tundra expands.17 Conifer forests predominate across the bulk of the boreal region.18 The southernmost area consists of the mixedwood deciduous and coniferous forests of the western and central boreal region and the coniferous forests of the east. In the south, open woodlands occur only in exposed or very dry areas and the remaining forests are closed canopy forests. A basic subdivision into western and eastern boreal regions is recognized with the dividing line drawn between the crystalline rocks of the Canadian Shield in the east and the sedimentary rocks in the west. Wetlands are a notable component of the boreal region. They comprise 20 percent of Canada’s boreal region19 and include swamps,20 marshes, bogs and fens, with the vast majority of wetlands being peatlands (peatlands comprise 17 percent of Canada21 ). Canada has the largest coverage of peatlands in the world, followed by Russia. Large river systems, such as the Peace-Athabasca-Mackenzie and Saskatchewan-Winnipeg-Nelson water basins, flow through the boreal region, carrying water to the Arctic Ocean. These larger river systems have deeply incised to broad valleys, and associated riparian areas.22 They are among the boreal region’s most complex ecological systems and are also among the most important for maintaining the vitality of the landscape and its watersheds and rivers.23 Softwater boreal lakes, underlain by ancient igneous rocks, are among the most numerous of any lake type on Earth. For example, the region of Canada east of the Manitoba-Ontario border and south of 52º, contains over 600,000 lakes larger than 4 hectares in area. Northern Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and much of the Northwest Territories contain similar densities of lakes.24 In total, freshwater covers about 7 percent of Canada’s boreal region and globally, boreal freshwaters may contain 80 percent or more of the world’s unfrozen freshwater (much of the volume of this freshwater is contained in a few large lakes, such as Lake Superior, with Lake Baikal in Russia containing 20 percent of the earth’s freshwater). 25 Beaver ponds represent an especially significant ecological (and cultural) element of the boreal landscape. The beaver is considered a keystone species in the boreal landscape26 and beaver ponds enhance the biodiversity of the boreal region. Selected elements of biodiversity General Boreal forests have been characterized as simple formations, which, by comparison with tropical forests, are species-poor in aboveground organisms.27 Tropical forests may contain up to 200 tree species in a single hectare compared to just a few in a hectare of boreal forest.28 Despite low tree species diversity, at the level of genetic diversity, boreal tree species and non-woody forest plants are no less variable than tropical species.29 Boreal freshwaters likewise contain few species when compared with temperate or tropical lakes; small boreal lakes often have either a single predatory species of fish, no fish predators, or may even have no fish at all.30 As we learn more of the boreal region, our understanding of the levels of biodiversity within it has been expanding. The Canadian Forest Service estimates that Canada’s forests, most of which are 7 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections boreal, contain approximately 140,000 kinds of living organisms, half of which are not yet classified. Plants and vertebrates comprise only about 5 percent of boreal species, while invertebrates (there may be more than 4,000-5,000 saprophytic beetles alone,31 with close to 900 beetle species in one 200 square kilometre Finland forest32 ), fungi (there may be more than 500 species of ectomychorrizal fungi33 ), and microbial organisms comprise over 90 percent.34 Tracts of old-growth forests and river valley ecosystems in the boreal region are proving to be especially species-rich as more sampling is performed.35 Moreover, soil microorganisms and ectomycorrhizal fungi and below-ground organisms are “hidden” from everyday view, and likely represent a significant proportion of the overall biodiversity in the system. When the tremendous environmental heterogeneity of the boreal region is considered, together with the multitude of adaptive strategies developed by species for living in environments with harsh northern climates, it no longer seems so simple.36 Birds Sixty-three percent of Canada’s regular, native birds occur in the boreal region;37 these 279 species break down as follows: 35 residents (12.5 percent), 4 winter visitors (1.4 percent), 38 passage visitors (13.6 percent), 202 summer visitors (72.4 percent).38 As a consequence of the severity and duration of boreal winters, migrants account for 87.5 percent of the boreal avifauna. Boreal bird species richness decreases as latitude increases and, at any given latitude, decreases from west to east.39 Ironically, despite the fact that bird species richness declines northwards in the boreal biome, the proportion of vertebrate diversity represented by birds (due to parallel decreases in herptofauna and mammal species numbers) usually increases from south to north.40 Two basic groups of boreal birds are recognized, namely, waterbirds and landbirds. At most (including the majority of shorebirds), 107 “waterbirds” make up roughly 38.4 percent of the boreal avifauna. Numerous sites of national and regional significance for waterbirds exist within the mid and high boreal regions, including breeding and migrating habitats for colonial birds, shorebirds, and other waterfowl.41 According to Ducks Unlimited, North America’s western boreal region supports an average of more than 13 million breeding ducks, three times more than the Prairie Pothole Region. 42 This represents some 40 percent of North America’s annual breeding waterfowl. The western boreal region contains the majority of the North America breeding range for lesser scaup, American wigeon, green-winged teal, ring-necked duck, bufflehead, goldeneye and scoter and is a major breeding area for mallard, northern pintail, black-winged teal, canvasback, Canada and whitefronted geese. Two hundred and twenty-two landbird species breed in Canada’s boreal.43 Of these, 78 also have some winter range in the boreal. Nearly 200 landbird species have been recorded within Canada’s boreal. Data suggest that a total of 227 species of landbirds breed in Canada’s boreal region. Of these, 41 species extend their range to the boreal forest only occasionally or accidentally, as less than an estimated 1 percent of their population is found there. The remaining 186 species, from 35 landbird families, are regular boreal residents. Of the regular boreal residents, 39 species are circumboreal in distribution, meaning that they breed in Eurasia as well as North America. About 133 (or 47.7 percent) of the boreal species can be regarded as partially or wholly forestdependent. Some 30 species (i.e., 12.6 percent of boreal breeding birds) nest in tree cavities.44 At least 23 boreal species (especially various owls, woodpeckers and finches) are irruptive, i.e., their numbers 8 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections in any given region can vary dramatically from year to year. Populations are prone to large-scale movements in response to failure of their normal food resources (particularly during winter). The canopy foliage-gleaner guild is the most abundant and species-rich feeding guild across all boreal forests.45 Numerically, wood warblers dominate this guild in Canada. They, and a majority of their fellow insectivorous birds, are Neotropical migrants that breed in the boreal region to harvest the bloom of summer arthropods. From a conservation perspective, some of the most significant and problematic forest-dependent bird groups in the boreal region include area-demanding species,46 old-growth dependent species,47 keystone species,48 area-sensitive species,49 forest interior species,50 early succession specialists,51 and spruce budworm specialists.52 To further complicate matters, many of the species comprising these groups are neotropical migrants. These long-distance migrants live under “triple jeopardy” from the diverse array of threats they face on both their breeding and wintering grounds and along their migration routes. As a result, neotropical migrants represent the most challenging and complex component of any comprehensive strategy designed to protect Canada’s boreal biodiversity. Mammalian carnivores Carnivores are of ecological and conservation value for Canada’s boreal region because their maintenance may encompass the habitat requirements of many other species,53 and because they collectively (or as sub-groups) may serve as “guilds” (i.e., share a distinct ecological profile or “exploit the same class of resources in a similar way”54 ). Six species or populations of carnivores are listed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) – grizzly bear (prairie population is listed as extirpated), grizzly bear (non-prairie populations listed as special concern), wolverine (eastern population – endangered), wolverine (western population – special concern), eastern wolf (special concern), and eastern cougar (special concern). The native mammalian carnivores of Canada’s boreal region consist of five Families representing 10 genera and consisting of 18 terrestrial species.55 The list includes: coyote, gray wolf, red wolf, red fox, American black bear, grizzly bear, northern raccoon, fisher, American marten, ermine, least weasel, wolverine, badger, mink, striped skunk, northern river otter, cougar, and Canada lynx.56 These species are still present throughout much of their historic range, although there have been range contractions in the more developed (usually southern) extents of their ranges. The grizzly bear is limited to the western boreal region, whereas the cougar is restricted to the southern boreal region. There are recent northward range expansions of cougar and grizzly bear. Species and ecosystems at risk Species at risk There are 7 boreal taxa on Canada’s endangered species list (3 birds – one of these, the eskimo curlew, is now considered extinct – 1 mammal; 1 fish; 1 mollusk; and 1 plant); 10 species designated threatened by COSEWIC (3 birds; 2 mammals; 4 fish; and 1 plant); and 20 listed as species of special concern (5 birds; 2 mammals; 3 fish; 1 amphibian; 1 lepidopteran; and 8 plants). Many of these species have very restricted ranges (aurora trout, hotwater physa, margined madtom, long’s braya, fernald’s braya) and others have probably always existed at comparatively low-to-very low numbers (e.g. whooping crane). Some others historically had large ranges and healthy populations that have rapidly declined (e.g. eskimo curlew, yellow rail, harlequin duck-eastern population, American marten - Newfoundland population, peregrine falcon, wood bison, short-jawed cisco, blackfin cisco). Some other species still have substantial populations but are declining rapidly or may be on the verge of a rapid decline (e.g., woodland caribou, grizzly bear, wolverine, deepwater sculpin). 9 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Current threats to the continued existence of these species include over-hunting (e.g. eskimo curlew); over-trapping (e.g. marten, wolverine), over-fishing (e.g. shortjaw cisco, blackfin cisco); depletion of prey (e.g. wolverine); habitat loss such as clearcutting (e.g. marten57 ), lake acidification (aurora trout); pollution (e.g. hotwater physa, deepwater sculpin); habitat destruction (e.g. long’s braya, woodland caribou); pesticides (e.g. peregrine falcon); habitat fragmentation (e.g., woodland caribou, grizzly bear); agricultural expansion (e.g. yellow rail); hydro-electric projects (e.g. harlequin duck - eastern population); and damage from off-highway vehicles (e.g. Mackenzie hairgrass, large-headed woolly yarrow). Several other species or populations are of concern to various experts. 2 Several inhabit the rivers and deltas of the boreal forest (e.g. Pygmy whitefish;58 White pelican colonies).59 2 The biota of oligotrophic lakes may be at risk, as they tend to be highly vulnerable to toxicological impacts. For example, fish in lakes with low productivity tended to bioaccumulate increased levels of the insecticide toxaphene.60 2 Although the reasons are not understood, the boreal chickadee has experienced dramatic declines in the previous 35 years.61 Populations of several other boreal-dependent birds are suffering. The numbers of boreal-breeding Connecticut Warblers, Rusty Blackbirds and Canada Warblers, for example, have fallen sharply in recent years.62 2 Canvasback brood size is reduced in the western boreal region, relative to parkland habitats.63 2 Excessive commercial fishing may pose risks to all diving waterbirds.64 2 White-winged scoter, a species that is considered to be sensitive throughout the majority of its range, tends to only be observed on wetlands in unharvested landscapes.65 The white-winged scoter breeds on wetlands in the western boreal forest. Wetland selection by breeding scoters appears to be linked to the abundance of freshwater amphipods, such as Hyalella azteca,66 and since the 1950s, populations of this species appear to be declining. 2 Lesser scaup, which utilize boreal wetlands, are currently experiencing dramatic continental population declines,67 and current estimates of population densities are well below the goal of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan.68 Declines of scaup are most pronounced in the western boreal region and may be linked to reduced survival rates and reduced recruitment.69 Ecosystems at risk Unlike species at risk, little investigation has been conducted into boreal ecosystems at risk. Examples would likely include: 2 Riparian and valley ecosystems that may be flooded by dams, or downstream hydrologic regimes that may be altered by dams or water diversions; 2 South-central boreal mixedwood forests that are undergoing deforestation due to agricultural clearing (especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan) or conversion to plantation forestry; 2 Areas of the Boreal Plains ecozone that are undergoing petroleum exploration and developments throughout the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin; and 2 Ecosystems subject to pervasive infrastructure developments, and logging-induced losses of major forest types such as old growth forests (and losses of coniferous forests, such as in Ontario70 ). In most cases, related habitat loss and conversion has been accompanied by widespread habitat fragmentation, most notably in the southern boreal region. Of all the ecosystems at potential risk, perhaps the most significant threat is loss of old growth forest, in large part because of the continuing high economic value of old-growth timber and because we stand to lose much with regard to biodiversity if old growth disappears from the landscape to any significant extent.71 10 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Ecological services Natural ecosystems provide varied ecological services.72 The boreal region as a whole functions as an enormous and complex biodiversity-support system wherein its various biophysical elements furnish critical habitat for a host of species. The most commonly acknowledged services include production of materials for consumptive uses such as timber and wildlife and fisheries harvesting. The region’s old-growth forests and wetlands are important contributors to biodiversity at all spatial scales.73 Populations of some species are absolutely dependent on old-growth forests for breeding and other purposes, and their continued survival hinges upon the perpetuation of this special habitat type.74 Riparian ecosystems within the region provide essential habitat for many aquatic plants, animals, and other organisms, including many species of fish and invertebrates. In addition, they perform a vital linking function between the region’s various upland catchment areas and its lowland ecosystems. Stream and river valleys also act as traditional, seasonal migration, and dispersal corridors for both aquatic and terrestrial animals and provide important wintering habitat for wildlife such as ungulates. The boreal region has a significant impact on the seasonal and annual climate of much of the Northern Hemisphere.75 Boreal forests warm surface air temperatures and increase atmospheric moisture at all times of the year. These effects, although greatest in high northern latitudes, extend to the tropics. At a smaller scale, boreal forests also help determine local temperature, rainfall and weather conditions.76 Carbon is the essential building block of the main greenhouse gases. Forests hold about 62–78 percent of the world’s terrestrial biospheric carbon, about 14–17 percent of which is in the forests of North America, of which circa 86 percent is in the boreal region.77 The boreal regions of the world play a vital role in the global carbon cycle78 because north temperate forest regions, of which the boreal region is the major part, may equal the oceans historically as a net annual sink for atmospheric carbon.79 Canada contains 35 percent of the world’s boreal biome.80 Most of the carbon contained within Canada’s boreal region is held within peat deposits (about 50 percent81 ), soils ( about 30 percent82 ) and lake sediments (about 15 percent83 ). Boreal surface vegetation contains less than 8 percent of the total carbon storage in boreal landscapes.84 Wetlands provide hydrologic, water quality control, bio-remedial and life-support services. They attenuate flood peaks and storm flows (through their water storage capabilities); and “control” water quality via the process of nutrient cycling, since they act as permanent or temporary sinks (and sources to adjacent water bodies) of chemicals, sediments and nutrients. Peatlands perform an array of essential ecological, hydrological and biogeochemical services and functions, including the “regulation” of floods through flood peak reduction (i.e., they act as reservoirs for surface water), and biogeochemical cycling (e.g., ion and biomass retention/export), which serves to prevent or diminish erosion. On a global scale, peatlands act as CO2 sinks and as CH4 sources; support aquatic food chains; and, through various biophysical processes, help maintain or improve water quality.85 In addition, peatlands function as critical wetland buffers since they “remove” pollutants and reduce the effects of siltation (resulting from land disturbances) on aquatic habitats.86 There are methodological and interpretation problems associated with assigning dollar values to ecosystem services and to loss of those services — one of the main ones being the weakness of comparing global GDP with the global ecosystem services as GDP is totally dependent on global 11 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections ecosystem services.. However, it is noteworthy that the total global value of ecosystem goods and services has been estimated at U.S. $16-54 trillion per year (for comparison, total gross global product in 1994, the base year of the estimates, was around U.S. $25 trillion).87 The Canadian and global human economy is dependent upon the services performed by natural ecosystems throughout Canada’s boreal region. A focus on these ecological services is important because they are generally ignored or undervalued by society, and because many anthropogenic human-initiated disruptions of boreal ecosystems are difficult or impossible to reverse on time scales relevant to human society.88 What is happening to boreal Canada? Although large, fairly pristine areas of Canada’s boreal ecosystems exist, the boreal region in general is far from untouched by human activity.89 Today the boreal region is undergoing human-induced changes of unprecedented magnitude and rapidity, many of which are potentially irreversible in cultural timeframes. There has been a massive increase in industrial logging activity across the world’s boreal biome, especially with respect to new pulp mill developments – in the last few decades concentrated primarily in Canada and Siberia – and regionally intensive oil and gas exploration and developments. The boreal biome has become the world’s main source of industrial wood and wood pulp fibre.90 Logging in the boreal biome has opened up a new frontier for the industry.91 According to some experts, in global terms we are near or even beyond sustainable logging levels,92 and the present increase in world demand for forest products is likely to accelerate logging pressures on boreal and temperate forests.93 Only 20 percent of the world’s major virgin, or frontier, forests remain, almost all of them in the far north of Canada and Russia, together with Brazil’s Amazon region. Most of the world’s forests in other areas are unhealthy, threatened by logging and development, or too small and fragmented to sustain complete biological systems.94 This section focuses on what is happening to boreal Canada in terms of human occupation, industrial use, ecological footprint, protection and climate change. Human presence Historic Before intensive European immigration in the 1800s to early 1900s, Canada’s boreal region was not terra nullius – empty land.95 Aboriginal peoples have occupied Canada’s boreal region for thousands of years, thriving as nomadic hunting, fishing and gathering societies. This historical use was much more compatible with the ecological character and ecological limits of boreal ecosystems. These peoples continue to regard the boreal region as vital to their spiritual, cultural and economic survival. Hunting (moose, caribou), fishing, and gathering were the standard way of life for northern First Nations people until the late 1800s.96 Historic culture was strongly tied to the aquatic environment, as most human activity focused along the rivers, streams, and lakes of the region.97 Although the traditional lifestyle of eastern Aboriginal peoples had come to an end much earlier, by 1870, the traditional lifestyle of the western Plains Indians had also essentially come to an end with the 12 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections widespread demise of bison populations and the arrival of European fur traders.98 The fur trade resulted in further development of permanent First Nations settlements close to major waterways. The river networks throughout the boreal were critical in the European settlement of the region. The river systems were used extensively for transport, as a fisheries resource, and for trapping.99 Current Despite a history of occupation and utilization by various groups of humans, until recently the boreal region remained comparatively little-altered by human activities. This was mostly due to its vast size, relative inaccessibility, insect pests and severe winter temperatures. Even today, fewer than 20 million people live in all of the earth’s boreal regions.100 As of 1991, Canada’s boreal ecozones contained approximately 3.5 million people or 13 percent of the country’s population, with over 10 percent being located in the Boreal Shield ecozone;101 and with approximately 57 percent of those living in the region’s urban areas.102 Subsistence trapping, fishing and hunting, and tourism/recreation are pervasive human activities throughout the boreal region. Logging is a prevailing human activity in the southern boreal region. Oil and gas is significant in the western boreal region. Agriculture is significant in the southern portions of the Boreal Plains, portions of the Clay Belt in the southern Boreal Shield and extends into a few southern portions of the Taiga Plains. Mining occurs in scattered locations, but primarily in the Boreal Shield. Industry and resource extraction Today, as is the case throughout the world’s frontier areas, Canada’s boreal region is being impacted by a massive increase in industrial activities - primarily timber, hydrocarbon, hydroelectric and mineral extraction operations –which is unprecedented in terms of both scale and accelerating rate of occurrence. Most anthropogenic alterations of boreal habitats, species, and processes result from pollution, invasions of exotic species, habitat destruction, habitat alteration, and habitat fragmentation. Pollution includes air, water, and land pollution, usually from point sources, but often affecting vast areas of boreal terrestrial and/or aquatic ecosystems. Invasive exotic species include both plants and animals. Habitat destruction includes “habitat conversion” - whereby structurally and functionally complex habitats such as forests are converted, for example, to cropland. Fragmentation of forested landscapes usually takes place in a series of recognizable stages, and ultimately results in the conversion of natural ecosystems into human-dominated ecosystems.103 Some of the dominant human activities that pose threats to Canada’s boreal region include logging and pulp, paper and sawmill operations, agriculture, oil and gas exploration and development, mining, the pollution-emitting industrial “heartland” of North America, and power generation and water storage. Other impacts include: settlements and transportation corridors; aggregate extraction; intensification of recreation activities; peat mining and peat burning for power generation; active fire suppression;104 and, certain wildlife management practices (such as predator culling and some aspects of fisheries management105 ).106 Massive changes due to human activities, particularly in the southern boreal areas, are taking place in Canada’s boreal region. Some of the changes are widespread, some are increasing gradually and some are increasing exponentially. Their cumulative impacts remain largely unstudied although they are undoubtedly evolving rapidly. Given the compounded ecological impacts wrought by these 13 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections anthropogenic changes in the boreal, some authors have predicted a future era of unpleasant ecological surprises.107 Population and ecological footprint The Boreal Shield sub-region has the highest population density in Canada’s boreal (154 persons per 100 square kilometres), followed by the Boreal Plains (106 persons per 100 square kilometres).108 Projected future population and consumption patterns will potentially have an enormous impact on Canada’s boreal region.109 In 1996, Canada’s population was 29,760,000. In that year, Statistics Canada made three Canadian population projections to the year 2041. Projection 1, a low-growth scenario, shows that the Canadian population will peak at around 35.5 million in 2030, before slowly receding. Projection 2, a medium-growth scenario, shows that the population will be 37 million by 2016, and 42 million by 2041. Projection 3, a high-growth scenario, shows what effect a higher fertility rate, life expectancy and immigration rate might have on total population: under this projection, the population would be about 52 million by 2041 and not stabilize in the foreseeable future. The population growth would not be evenly distributed across the nation. Newfoundland and New Brunswick would see their population decline, whereas Ontario would absorb 56 percent of the total increase in the Canadian population. According to United Nations’ population projections, world populations will increase from 6 billion in 1999, to 8 billion in 2028, and 9 billion in 2054. This increase will occur despite a predicted slowdown in the annual rate of population growth, from the current rate of 1.3 percent to 0.3 percent in 2050.110 With increasing population, both in Canada and worldwide, the demands on resources, including those of Canada’s boreal region, will increase in response to both expanding numbers of people and predicted consumption patterns. Keeping humanity’s “ecological” footprint within the planet’s biocapacity is a minimum requirement for sustainability. Ecological footprint analysis is an accounting tool that enables an estimate to be made of the resource consumption and waste assimilation requirements of a defined human population or economy in terms of a corresponding productive land area.111 For example, the global ecological footprint is currently 2.85 hectares per person; Canada’s is 7.66.112 Protection Protection of Canada’s forests is a high priority for Canadians. A 1997 survey commissioned by Natural Resources Canada113 found that Canadians most valued their nation’s forests for: (1) protecting water, air, soil; (2) balancing global ecosystems; (3) providing habitat for wildlife and plants; and, (4) wilderness preservation (these values were higher than, or in the case of #4, equal to, economic wealth and jobs). “Protection” measures can range widely, from mitigating the impacts of scarification after logging, to selective rather than clearcut logging, to the retention of “snags” and other forest structures, to policy restrictions on streamside logging, to air and water pollution regulations, to the legal designation of protected areas. Creation of an extensive network of development corridors throughout the boreal region is considered by some to be the single most contributing factor to loss of ecological integrity.114 Many are of the view that, with respect to a broad range spectrum of conservation issues, controlling 14 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections access, and hence development, is the key to maintaining ecologically functional habitats and viable populations of species.115 Although for some it is sufficient to say that “Canada’s forest community continues to improve forest management by developing, integrating and adapting stewardship approaches… against a backdrop of forest values that range from wilderness to wildlife, to wood supply, to recreation and to water supply,”116 the best strategy – albeit at times a controversial one – for conserving landscapes and the animals and plants that depend upon them, is the establishment and management of parks, reserves or other forms of protected areas. In the absence of sufficient ecological knowledge to adequately assess the impacts of an imposition of wide-scale and/or intensive human-caused activities on the boreal region, it is desirable to take an approach termed the precautionary principle. This approach rightly shifts the burden of proof to the proponents of such activities.117 Protected areas “With 9.6 percent of Canada’s land mass protected, Canada places 13th out of 29 OECD nations, below the OECD average of 12.6 percent…. If one looks at the percentage of land in the IUCN’s strict conservation categories, Canada’s performance is less impressive, falling to 4.32 percent protected. This is largely because many provinces continue to allow industrial activities like logging, mining and oil and gas development within protected areas under their jurisdiction.” 118 Canada has made significant strides in recent decades at both the federal and provincial levels in establishing new protected areas. The amount of Canada that is protected has risen from 5.5 percent in the early 1980s to 9.6 percent in the late 1990s. Although the southern boreal and the northern taiga ecozones are roughly equivalent in size, the southern boreal region contains almost 30 times the number of protected-type areas as the northern taiga region, but the mean size of the areas in the southern boreal region is less than 10 percent the mean size of those in the northern boreal region.119 Many of the “protected-type” areas, particularly in the southern boreal region, were selected, not due to ecological and science criteria for “representation” and biodiversity conservation, but due to lack of conflict with industrial interests or for tourism value. Ecosystem management120 2 Box 2. Ecosystem management The eight requirements of ecosystem management include: long-term sustainability as a fundamental value; clear, operational goals; sound ecological models and understanding; recognition of the dynamic character of ecosystems; attention to context and scale; humans as ecosystem components; and, adaptability and accountability.123 In some cases, new concepts for managing logging and other industrial activities so as to preserve biodiversity have found their way into management procedures. The general paradigm under which this is occurring has been termed ecosystem management.121 There has been an explosion of logging and ecosystem management-related research in Canada’s boreal region, and a parallel explosion in the number of forest sustainability commitments through the 1990s, by industry and governments. Much direction on logging is supplied by this research and by those commitments. 15 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections A comparison of management recommendations and commitments to sustainable forest ecosystem management versus actual forest company operational procedures indicates a discrepancy. 122 For example, logging practices, as they occur “on the ground,” involve increasingly extensive industrial clearcut logging. Ecosystem management usually entails a focus on processes rather than on species diversity. The key processes identified in ecosystem management for boreal forests are disturbances, with industry attention being focused almost wholly upon fire. Riparian forests The protection of riparian forests during forestry operations has been internationally and nationally recognized as an important objective for sustainable forest management.124 A new study (still in draft form at the time of writing) by Global Forest Watch Canada discloses a vast array of differing standards and policy instruments for the conservation and management of Canada’s riparian forests.125 The most noticeable differences are found within the boreal forest ecozones. The nature and extent of riparian forest protection in Canada varies widely between and within the provinces and territories. For examples: riparian reserve zones, which would prohibit most logging or road-building in riparian forests, are not commonly required for forest management in Canada, and; only one jurisdiction in Canada, the Northwest Territories, has mandatory no-logging reserve zones on all its streams, lakes and wetlands. Canada’s standards for riparian boreal forest protection on large streams and lakes are significantly weaker than comparable standards in Russia, although enforcement of these standards in Russia is presently unclear. Climate change Present concerns about climate change arise from two basic premises that are undisputed by the scientific community: (1) greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ), retard the rate at which the Earth loses heat to space, and thus contribute to the warming of the earth’s atmosphere; and, (2) concentration of these gases is increasing in part as a result of human activities.126 There is a discernible human influence on emissions of CO2 and global climate due to fossil fuel burning, and this is virtually certain to be the dominant influence on the trends in atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the 21st century.127 Despite disputes over detail, barring a massive intervention by all major greenhouse gas-emitting nations, climate warming is substantial, rapid, and may well accelerate in the next few decades. Rate of climate warming Atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 280 parts per million for at least 10,000 years prior to the Industrial Revolution and have been less than 300 parts per million for the last 400,000 years128 (perhaps even for the last 20 million years129 ). Worldwide, CO2 emissions have tripled over the last 40 years130 and CO2 concentrations have risen from about 280 ppm in 1800 to about 365 ppm in 1995, an increase of 30 percent.131 16 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Average global surface temperatures increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C during the 20th century.132 At the present rates of increase, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere has been predicted to double within the next 30-50 years.133 Concomitantly, the global average temperature is expected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C by 2100 relative to 1900, although the degree of warming and precipitation increases and decreases would vary by region. Warming is expected to be greatest in higher latitudes. 134 A rate of temperature change of this magnitude would be unprecedented and 15-30 times more rapid than that measured for the past 20,000 years.135 Other studies are Canada- and region-specific and show the projected changes in annual temperature and precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere.136 Why is climate warming of significance to Canada’s boreal region? Climate warming is of special significance to Canada’s boreal region for two reasons: 1. Average temperatures may rise in Canada’s boreal region substantially more than the world average. Regional changes will be quite different from global averages. Because landmasses warm faster than oceans, it is anticipated that the more dramatic increases in global temperatures will occur in high latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, including Canada’s boreal region.137 2. Canada’s boreal region may very well move from a globally significant sink for carbon from the atmosphere to a globally significant source of carbon to the atmosphere. Canada contains 35 percent of the world’s boreal region138 (i.e., 8-11 percent of the world’s terrestrial biospheric carbon is in the boreal region of North America). Most of this carbon is held within peat deposits (about 50 percent139 ), soils (about 30 percent140 ) and lake sediments (about 15 percent141 ). Boreal surface vegetation contains less than 8 percent of the total carbon storage in boreal landscapes.142 Because of its historic role as a key carbon sink and because it is a major potential future source of atmospheric carbon, the boreal region has the capacity to profoundly affect the course of future climate warming. Climate warming, in turn, via a series of positive and negative feedback loops, will ultimately determine the boreal region’s fate. Some studies now suggest the boreal region sink significantly 143 weakened between 1970-1989 and recent studies have shown net losses of carbon from peatlands. Boreal region feedback loops = the “carbon bomb”? There is uncertainty regarding the details of projected effects of climate warming. This is because the Earth’s climate system is bewilderingly complex and involves interactions with the world’s oceans, land masses, living things and polar ice masses, any of which can trigger important changes and cause a variety of feedback effects.144 Although uncertainty about projected climate warming effects increases at the regional and local levels, some of the many potential climate warming positive (carbon release) and negative (carbon storage) feedback reactions involving the boreal region are as follows: 2 The anticipated northward shift of the boreal region and other vegetation belts caused by climate warming will itself amplify high-latitude warming by about 4°C in spring and 1°C during the other seasons.145 2 As a result of climate warming, the frequency and intensity of fires in the boreal region are likely to increase significantly – the increase in annual area of boreal region burned is predicted by some studies to be 50 percent,146 although there will be large regional variation, with declines of area burned in Canada’s eastern boreal region. Since fires decrease forest biomass and release carbon, this is an important positive feedback that could exacerbate the warming trend. Warmer summers will likely spawn more thunderstorms and hence, more lightning strikes and fires. 17 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 2 Climate warming also has the potential to release vast amounts of carbon from oxidation of peats, from evaporation of CH4 locked up as methane hydrates in permafrost,147 and from lake sediments.148 This alone could trigger a vicious circle of still more climate warming. 2 The warming of boreal soils would lead to increased soil microbe respiration, promoting decay and would result in additional release of carbon.149 However, there has been considerable debate about whether warmer boreal soils would enhance (positive feedback) or retard (negative feedback) climate warming. This is because nitrogen mineralization also increases with soil temperature and promotes tree growth. The major concern of many climatologists and environmental scientists is that the combined result of all the above-described feedback processes will be to convert the boreal region from a net carbon sink to a major carbon source. This would promote further climate warming and combined with anticipated massive releases of methane (CH4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from permafrost and tundra soils, would trigger an irreversible “runaway” climate warming effect, leading to rapid and unstoppable increases in global temperatures.150 This scenario has been graphically described as “The Carbon Bomb.”151 Schindler’s triple whammy - individual and synergistic effects on Canada’s boreal region In addition to climate warming, ecologist David W. Schindler considered acid deposition and stratospheric ozone depletion and termed their individual, combined, and perhaps synergistic effects a “triple whammy.” He concluded that these, along with other human activities, might result in the boreal region being one of the global ecoregions most affected by climate change over the next few decades.152 What is boreal Canada’s state of health? International context The Scandinavian boreal region (especially in Sweden and Finland) has been highly altered by intensive logging and plantation-forestry practices, which have resulted in factory forests with diminished biological diversity.156 Today less than 5 percent of Scandinavia’s original old growth taiga survives.157 Intensive silviculture is practised in Scandinavia and, while this has restored fibre production, it has led to many problems involving exotic species and instability of ecosystems. Approximately 1,500 forest species are listed as threatened in Sweden,158 with many of these species relying on old growth forests. For example, the existence of 400 species of wood-living beetles is threatened because large-diameter, dead trees are now a sparse resource, and more than 200 species of cryptograms are in danger of becoming extinct because of the lack of old trees, logs and snags.159 One telling statistic is that Sweden’s 200,000 kilometres of logging roads cover an area larger than all the forest reserves in the country.160 Less than 1 percent of the Norwegian boreal region has been protected as nature reserves.161 Between 1988 and 1993, Siberia’s forests switched from being a net carbon sink to a new source, with its carbon accumulation from the atmosphere already cut possibly by one-third.162 Some large areas of the former Soviet Union’s Taiga, notably the Kola Peninsula and parts of Siberia, have been 18 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections devastated by atmospheric pollution from numerous smelting operations, radioactive contaminants and oil spills.163 In addition, Siberia has experienced a “timber rush” and an influx of transnational 2 Box 3. Summary of the state of health of boreal Canada Historically, ecosystem health in forests has been associated with protecting forests against insects and diseases and salvaging stands of damaged or infested timber. However, the concept of forest ecosystem health has greatly expanded both in scope and in application.153 How forest ecosystem health is viewed depends on how forest ecosystems are valued -- whether for timber, watershed services, carbon sinks, recreation, aesthetics, wildlife habitat, or spiritual renewal. Long before European settlement, Canada’s vast forests evolved in response to recurrent and often profound, but inherent, influences including wildfire, wind, ice storms, floods, drought, insects, diseases, and climate change. Human activities have disrupted the natural range of variation in structure, composition, and landscape patterns of boreal Canada. These activities include introductions of insects, disease, and other foreign organisms; land use and resulting land cover change; fires, both accidental and deliberate; atmospheric pollutants, including acidic deposition; changes in tropospheric ozone and ultraviolet-B radiation; and carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases linked to climate change. Changes in ecosystem condition may have negligible or even beneficial effects on ecosystem productivity and resilience, but may cause hardship to communities dependent on the forest or reduce a forest’s attractiveness to tourists. Effects of some catastrophes may be essentially permanent if the ecosystem, for example, is reduced to bare rock. Determination of the health of Canadian forest ecosystems is not an exact science. The definition of “health” is more qualitative than quantitative. It is not always clear how much change in ecosystem condition is due to natural processes and how much result from human activities. Also, the natural range of variation and the appropriate period of time to consider is not always clear. Some initial conclusions of the Canadian Forest Service regarding the state of health of boreal Canada are as follows:154 2 The world’s boreal forests are forecast to bear the brunt of global climate change when compared to potential impacts on temperate and tropical forests. Two of the potentially devastating impacts are greatly increased catastrophic fire events and alteration of the distribution and degree of infestation and diseases. 2 Acid rain continues to adversely impact biological growth and productivity of the eastern Boreal Shield ecozone. 2 Approximately 10 percent of the harvested area of Canada has not regenerated successfully by twenty years after harvest. If this backlog continues to accumulate, the health of the timber-productive forest landbase of the country may be threatened. 2 The aspen forests of the Boreal Plains are threatened due to extensive fragmentation caused by the conversion of forestland for agricultural purposes. 2 The entire Boreal Plains and significant portions of the Taiga Plains (Mackenzie River valley) are threatened due to extensive fragmentation caused by exploration and development of petroleum resources. 2 In portions of the Boreal Shield and Boreal Plains ecozones, the forest cover is shifting from softwoods to hardwoods, mostly aspen and birch, where harvesting has replaced fire as the dominant disturbance. These hardwoods are natural aggressive colonizers of cutover lands. 2 Due to climate change, future wood availability will be uncertain at best. 155 19 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections logging companies. Massive logging and high grading of mature conifers has taken place, resulting in a decline of this type of forest.164 China is expected to exert a major influence in Russia’s taiga and China is poised to become the world’s leading importer of wood.165 In European Russia, only 14 percent of the Taiga forest landscapes are still intact (i.e., essentially undisturbed by human development with an area of at least 50,000 ha). The vast majority of these are located in the most remote areas of the far north.166 Health of major boreal ecozones in boreal Canada167 2 Box 4. Forest health In general terms, a healthy forest is one that maintains biodiversity, resiliency, wildlife habitat, aesthetic appeal and resource sustainability.168 Forest ecosystems are generally considered healthy when their underlying ecological processes operate within a natural range of variability, so that on any temporal or spatial scale, they are dynamic and resilient to disturbance.169 Natural range of variability refers to ecosystem composition, structure, processes, and patterns for a specified time and a specific area. Boreal Shield Ecozone Changing forest landscape and watershed conditions 2 Large intact forest landscapes (Map 1): The Boreal Shield has 53 percent of its area remaining as large intact forest landscapes, the lowest percentage of any boreal ecozone after the Boreal Plains (at 17 percent). 2 Watersheds (Map 2): The area covered by Boreal Shield watersheds that have developments in at least some portion total approximately 70 percent of the ecozone. The area covered by watersheds that have developments in more than more than half of each watershed total almost 20 percent of the ecozone. 2 Fire (Map 3) and insects: Fire polygons have covered almost 10 percent of this ecozone between 1980 and 1997, the second largest percentage of all the boreal/taiga ecozones (after the Taiga Plains). Insect defoliators are the greatest contributors to mortality and forest change. However, only a few species routinely infest large areas and are economically damaging to the commercial forest. Changing biodiversity 2 Changing tree species mix: In southern boreal Ontario and Québec, a permanent shift from softwood to hardwood cover is occurring in areas where harvesting has replaced fire as the dominant disturbance.170 2 Plants under pressure: Red pine and white pine have suffered serious declines in Newfoundland; and both pine species have been greatly reduced in the continental portions of their ranges. In the case of white pine, this demise is attributable to excessive harvesting and white pine blister rust, an introduced disease. Red pine decline may be related to the reduced incidence of wildfire. Changing atmospheric environment 2 Acid deposition and forests: In the mid-latitude regions of Ontario and Québec, relatively high rates of acid deposition have resulted in adverse impacts on soils associated with upland forests.171 There is a continuing problem with acid deposition.172 2 Acid deposition and boreal lakes: The effects of acid runoff from forest soils on boreal lake ecosystems have significantly reduced fish populations.173 Conservative estimates suggest that at 20 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections least 162,000 populations of fish have disappeared from the lakes of the eastern Boreal Shield and Atlantic Maritime ecozones since the start of anthropogenic acidification of these lakes. 2 Ground-level ozone: Forests in the south-central portion of the ecozone have been exposed to damaging levels of ground-level ozone concentrations.174 2 Especially in the western boreal, increasing vegetation productivity and related biodiversity changes are likely, due to climate warming. Boreal Plains Ecozone Changing forest landscape conditions 2 Large intact forest landscapes (Map 1): The Boreal Plains has only 17 percent of its area remaining as large intact forest landscapes, the lowest percentage of any boreal ecozon.e 2 Watersheds (Map 2): The area covered by Boreal Plains watersheds that have developments in at least some portion total over 90 percent of the ecozone. The area covered by watersheds that have developments in more than more than half of each watershed total almost 60 percent of the ecozone. 2 Fire (Map 3) and insects: Together, fire, forest tent caterpillar, lodgepole pine dwarf mistletoe, spruce budworm, and jack pine budworm typically affect millions of hectares of forests each year in this ecozone. Although they cause tree mortality, and reduction in growth amounts to tens of millions of cubic metres of wood annually,175 these agents of change are essential to the ecological well being of these forests. However, volume losses due to these disturbances, which exceed volumes harvested, have implications for the available timber supply in the region. Fires have affected almost 7 percent of this ecozone between 1980 and 1997, the fourth largest percentage of all the boreal/taiga ecozones. 2 Fragmentation of the aspen forest: Northward expansion of agriculture over the last 100 years has resulted in the loss of much of the most productive aspen forests in the southern portion of this ecozone. A belt of land ranging in width from a few to over 100 kilometres has been converted from trembling aspen and mixedwood forests to agricultural land.176 Changing biodiversity 2 Species richness: The southern mixedwood forests of this ecozone have among the highest diversities of breeding birds of any forest type in North America.177 They also support at least six bat species, the highest concentration of bat species recorded anywhere in Canada.178 The habitats of many of these bird and bat species are being placed under increasing levels of stress as a result of agricultural and industrial development. 2 Currently, this ecozone contains a number of species considered at risk. They include the woodland caribou, wolverine, grizzly bear, wood bison, and whooping crane. The northern part of the Boreal Plains supports the world’s only breeding area of the whooping crane. 2 Increasing development: The upsurge in forestry, oil and gas exploration, mining, and agriculture and associated infrastructure such as roads, is adding a major stress to the forests within the Boreal Plains. Technology improvements during the 1980s have led to a 20-fold increase in the harvesting of previously little-valued aspen. The rate of anthropogenic-caused disturbances is rapid (Map 4). 2 Introduced species: Dutch elm disease was introduced into the region in 1975. This disease poses a serious risk to native American elm, a tree that grows in the southeastern part of the ecozone. As settlers moved west across the continent, they brought with them many European vascular plants. These plants have become established along roads and railways, in agricultural fields, and in other disturbed areas. These non-native plants are now invading relatively pristine forest areas such as Wood Buffalo National Park and, in some cases, they are displacing native plants. 21 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Changing atmospheric environment 2 No regional air pollution: Tree condition, mortality rates, and regeneration are all within normal ranges. No damage from air pollution has been detected. Acidic emissions are low when compared to southeastern Canada. Broad-scale threats to forest ecosystems will likely come from long-range sources rather than from within the ecozone. 2 Oil and gas processing and production, electrical power production, chemical plants, and pulp and paper mills are the local industrial sources of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds. 2 Climate change and the boreal forest-grassland transition: Predicted climate warming scenarios and decreased soil moisture may result in dramatic ecological responses where the boreal forest meets the grasslands. Taiga Plains Ecozone Changing forest landscape conditions 2 Large intact forest landscapes (Map 1): The Taiga Plains has 61 percent of its area remaining as large intact forest landscapes, the third lowest percentage of any boreal ecozone after the Boreal Plains (at 17 percent), and the Boreal Shield (at 53 percent). 2 Watersheds (Map 2): The area covered by Taiga Plains watersheds that have developments in at least some portion total almost 50 percent of the ecozone. The area covered by watersheds that have developments in more than half of each watershed total almost 20 percent of this ecozone. 2 Fire (Map 3) and insects: Fires have affected almost 12 percent of this ecozone between 1980 and 1997, the largest percentage of all the boreal/taiga ecozones. Insect and disease outbreaks are common but are essential to the ecological integrity of these forests. Spruce budworm is the most widespread, being concentrated in white spruce stands along rivers, particularly the Mackenzie, Nahanni, and Liard rivers. 2 Range extension of forest tent caterpillar: Of interest is the recent outbreak, between 1995 and 1997, of forest tent caterpillar in the Liard River valley. It was the first documented outbreak of the insect this far north. Changing biodiversity 2 The overall biodiversity within these forests is not threatened. The forest wetland ecosystems of the Taiga Plains are particularly important, as they are essential to the survival of many North American migratory species, including lesser snow geese, trumpeter swan, Caspian tern, and lesser yellowlegs. Changing atmospheric environment 2 Potential climate change impacts: A warming climate would have various impacts, including lower water levels, less permafrost, longer growing seasons, increased fire frequency, increased incidence of insect infestations, and less caribou habitat.179 2 There has been a northward shift of the permafrost boundary by 140 kilometres in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba due to general warming conditions over the last 200 years. Under current projections of climate warming, this northward retreat of the permafrost line would be accelerated. Taiga Shield Ecozone 2 Large intact forest landscapes (Map 1): The Taiga Shield has 93 percent of its area (south of the treeline) remaining as large intact forest landscapes, a very high percentage. 2 Watersheds (Map 2): The area covered by Taiga Shield watersheds that have developments in at least some portion total almost 10 percent of the ecozone. There are no watersheds in this ecozone that have developments that cover more than half of the watershed. 22 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 2 Fire (Map 3): Fires have affected almost 9 percent of this ecozone between 1980 and 1997, the third largest percentage of all the boreal ecozones (after the Taiga Plains and Boreal Shield). 2 The forests within this ecozone, in large part, are considered healthy. The James Bay and Churchill Falls hydroelectric-power developments have resulted in the diversion of several rivers and the flooding of large tracts of forested land. Currently, 2,640 square kilometres of land, much of it previously forested, has been flooded as part of the Churchill Falls project. Reservoirs associated with the La Grande complex of the James Bay hydroelectric project have resulted in 12,000 square kilometres of flooded forestland. If the Great Whale River phase of this project is implemented, thousands of hectares of additional land will be flooded. Boreal Cordillera Ecozone 2 Large intact forest landscapes (Map 1): The Boreal Cordillera has 89 percent of its area remaining as large intact forest landscapes, a very high percentage. 2 Watersheds (Map 2): The area covered by Boreal Cordillera watersheds that have developments in at least some portion total over 70 percent of the ecozone. There are no watersheds that have developments in more than more than half of the watershed. 2 Fire (Map 3): Fires have affected almost 5 percent of this ecozone between 1980 and 1997, the fifth largest percentage of all the boreal ecozones. 2 The forests of this ecozone are healthy. Intensive land-use practices are minimal and no widespread air pollution has been noted outside of the city of Whitehorse. 2 There is some concern within southeast Yukon that the harvesting taking place is not being adequately replenished through natural regeneration. Over the 5 years from 1991 to 1995, an estimated 4,571 hectares were harvested and 622 hectares were replanted. Since 1993, the Yukon and federal governments have begun to plant cutover areas in order to augment regeneration by natural means. Cumulative impacts and rates of change In regards to cumulative impacts, logging activity, oil and gas exploration and development, agricultural clearing, hydropower generation and other industrial exploration and developments, “accessed areas” (i.e., areas that have linear disturbances such as roads, and seismic lines180 ) have rapidly increased such that, by the year 2000, 31 percent of the southern boreal region (generally the Boreal Shield and Boreal Plains) and 1 percent of the northern boreal region (generally the Taiga ecozones and Boreal Cordillera ecozone) had been accessed.181 The amount of area accessed is indicative of ecosystem degradation and, although difficult to quantify, can rival forest loss in terms of ecological impact.182 Although reliable data are not available, Global Forest Watch Canada estimates that in terms of converted forests, the southern boreal region (generally the Boreal Shield and Boreal Plains) has lost 7.7 million hectares or about 3 percent of its forest due to clearing and conversion in the last 100 years (i.e., about 0.03 percent per year). The northern boreal region (generally the Taiga ecozones and Boreal Cordillera ecozone), on the other hand, has lost very little in total. There are huge regional differences, with the boreal region in the Prairie Provinces containing the vast majority of the southern boreal region conversions. There are strong regional differences in rates of change to boreal ecosystems. Based on draft results of a recent study by Global Forest Watch Canada on rates of anthropogenic-caused changes in the Boreal Plains Ecozone during the 1990s, Alberta experienced 1.6 times the rate of disturbance as British Columbia or Saskatchewan and 6 times the rate of disturbance as Manitoba. The differences 23 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections are likely due mainly to the predominance of the fragmentation effects of the oil and gas industry in Alberta. Sustainability A central question about the sustainability of Canadian boreal forests is: how much disturbance due to cumulative impacts can the system absorb before its resiliency is lost? The question is divided in two:183 (1) Is the disturbance rate increasing? 2 The area of undisturbed boreal “original” or “frontier” forest in the boreal of the Prairie Provinces has continued to decline due to logging, oil and gas, and agriculture, as has the degree of fragmentation and dissection consequent to these activities. The area disturbed by insects has apparently decreased in recent years, but the trend is dominated by aspen defoliators (primarily forest tent caterpillars), which may be obscuring changes in the populations of spruce budworm, jack pine budworm, etc. 2 Overall in Canada, between 1975 and 2001, the total area cut for timber extraction increased 50 percent.184 Most of this increase came from the boreal region. 2 Since fire is the dominant stand-replacing disturbance in the boreal forest, any change in disturbance would have major implications for the system. Some scientists have noted an apparent increase in national fire activity (dominated by the Prairie Provinces) over the 20th Century.185 A recent study concluded that despite increasing fire suppression efforts, forest fires have been increasing over past decades186 including during the 1990s. There is an apparent decrease in fire activity over eastern Ontario and central Québec.187 Application of a predictive climate model found that fire weather indices would rise in the western boreal and decrease over the eastern boreal.188 Concurrent increases and decreases in fire activity may be occurring.189 There appears to be little reason to expect climatically driven changes in fire frequency to be expressed uniformly across all of boreal Canada. 2 For the Canadian boreal forest, from 1920-69, the average disturbance rate (primarily from wildfire and insects) was 1.7 million hectares per year; from 1970-89, the average disturbance rate was 3.9 million hectares per year.190 (2) Is there evidence that forest losses are exceeding accruals? 2 Forest accruals (due to growth) and losses (due to harvest, fire, and pests) in area and in volume were calculated in one study by region for the period 1977-81.191 There was a net loss in forest area for the Prairie Provinces of 0.145 million hectares per year, and a net loss in forest volume of 15.93 million cubic metres per year. The largest amount of non-satisfactorily regenerated lands in Canada is in the Prairie Provinces.192 Whether these negative trends are typical of the Prairie Provinces is uncertain, as fire activity during the study period was high. Conversely, some recent years have had comparably high burn rates, logging rates have increased, and land losses due to oil and gas and agriculture continue. In corroboration, total forest biomass in Canada rose from 1920 to 1970 and has since declined.193 The negative trend is also corroborated by regional studies.194 Nationally, about 20 percent of the areas logged, burned, or killed by insects or disease do not regenerate and go out of production. The land base is being eroded by regeneration failures and land withdrawals. In summary, then, the evidence indicates that boreal region disturbance rates are increasing and that forest losses are exceeding accruals. The boreal region is shrinking and becoming more fragmented under its current disturbance regime. 24 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections The cumulative and synergistic environmental impacts resulting from the variety, intensity and expansion of human activities throughout Canada’s boreal region comprise enormous threats to long-term maintenance of ecological function and biological diversity. Although under public ownership, a large portion of the boreal region, particularly the southern portion, has already been allocated to multiple and layered (i.e., more than one allocation on the same land base) industrial interests.195 25 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections State of Industry As of 2002, natural resources – forestry, minerals, energy — contributed 12.7 percent, or $133.3 billion, to Canada’s gross domestic product, and comprised 6.1 percent, or 941,000, of Canadian jobs, 22.1 percent, or $45.4 billion, in new capital investments, 38.5 percent, or $140.5 billion, of Canada’s domestic exports, and $67.7 billion to Canada’s balance of trade.196 Much of this economic generation is from Canada’s boreal region. Economic importance of industry in boreal Canada The logging industry is a significant presence in the southern boreal region, and provincial governments derive significant financial benefits from logging activities.197 In Canada’s boreal region, employment in logging and related industries totaled 395,000 jobs in 1997 — 48 percent of the Canadian total in the forest sector.198 Many communities in the boreal region have a significant dependence on logging and the economies of such communities are generally less diverse than those in more southern locales. For example, it is estimated that in nearly 50 northern Ontario communities, logging is the sole industry.199 The estimate is much higher in Québec, with more than 250 communities thought to be directly dependent on logging and related industries in the boreal region. Canada is one of the largest mining nations in the world, producing more than 60 minerals and metals. Less than 0.03 percent of the land area of Canada has been used to produce minerals and mineral products. At the start of 2003, there were some 190 principal metal, non-metal and coal mines, more than 3,000 stone quarries and sand and gravel pits, and about 50 non-ferrous smelters, refineries and steel mills operating in Canada. Approximately 80 percent of the mining in Canada is in the boreal region.200 About 75 percent of total Canadian non-fuel mineral production is accounted for by Ontario (32 percent), Québec (21 percent), Saskatchewan (13 percent) and British Columbia (10 percent). Canada is one of the world’s leading exporters of minerals and mineral products. Some 80 percent of Canada’s mineral production is exported. These products make a significant contribution to Canada’s international trade, accounting for about 13 percent of Canada’s total domestic exports. Canada continues to be the world’s leader in the production of potash and uranium, and ranks in the top five for the production of nickel, aluminum, gold, zinc, gypsum, molybdenum, platinum group metals, salt, cadmium, titanium concentrate and asbestos. In regards to energy, remaining established reserves at the beginning of 2002 for natural gas are 59.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) — 59.3 Tcf in conventional areas and 0.5 Tcf in frontier areas — for a reserves-to-production ratio of 10 years. The total in-place, raw, undiscovered potential of natural gas in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin is estimated to be 310 Tcf. Crude oil reserves in 2002 were estimated at 11.4 billion barrels, consisting of conventional, 3.3 billion barrels; oil sands, 6.7 billion barrels; and frontier, 1.4 billion barrels (of which 0.95 billion are from off the East Coast), for a reserves-to-production ratio of 9 years. The ultimate recoverable potential from the Alberta oil sands is more than 300 billion barrels. Coal reserves are estimated at 6 294 million tonnes for a reserves-toproduction ratio of 84 years. Total coal resource estimates are more than 200 gigatonnes, of which 90 percent are in the three western provinces. All of the oil sands and most of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin are in the boreal region. 26 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections In 1991, the three boreal ecozones produced $64 billion in GDP, or 10 percent of Canada’s total, with a labour force of 1.7 million people. The largest employment sector throughout the ecozones was services, accounting for 31 percent of the labour force, while the mining-related sectors employed 103,237 people, or approximately 6.1 percent of the boreal labour force.201 Fifteen percent of Canada’s resource- related employment occurs in the boreal shield ecozone. In 1991, this ecozone contributed $28 billion annually to the economy from resource extraction, mainly from hydroelectric generation ($16.5 billion), mining ($6 billion) and forestry ($5.8 billion from pulp and paper), while its total GDP is $49 billion.202 Scan of industries operating in boreal Canada Ecosystem-wide Logging Over the last few years, logging practices in Canada have been the subject of increasing public and scientific attention. About 31 percent of the southern boreal region and only 1 percent of the northern boreal region is considered accessed203 (i.e., areas that have linear disturbances such as roads, and seismic lines204 ), primarily as a result of logging activities, but also as a result of the energy industry’s activities in western Canada. In many areas, as a result of logging and silvicultural operations, the age-class distribution and species composition of boreal forests is undergoing significant changes.205 The biggest impact is the loss of old growth habitats from the landscape and the broad-scale conversion from conifer to hardwood domination. The United States is the major importer of Canada’s forest products and as the U.S. economy continues to grow, demands for Canada’s forest products will also increase substantially, unless other world suppliers can accommodate the U.S. demand at lower prices. Logging of Canada’s boreal region began in earnest in the 1890s. Today, “forestry is our largest natural resource industry, we are the world’s greatest exporter of wood products, [and] an estimated 165,000 Canadians are employed by boreal industries.” 206 The decade of the late 1980s and early 1990s resulted in 45 new pulp mills or other wood-processing plants, worth more than $7 billion, being established in Canada’s boreal region.207 By 1999, at least 47 percent of Canada’s southern boreal region and 2 percent of the northern boreal region were under volume- and/or area-based tenures for logging.208 Throughout Canada, the rate of logging has increased substantially throughout the 20th century.209 The current rate of logging – about 1 million hectares annually210 – equates to a harvest of 0.4 percent of Canada’s commercial forest base of 235 million hectares, or 0.8 percent annually of the 119 million hectares currently managed primarily for timber production. Between 1975 and 2001, the amount harvested rose nearly 50 percent. In the 1990s, logging increased by about 15 percent. Provincial and territorial data indicate that the increase in area logged in the 1990s was primarily in the boreal forest. For example, the combined increases from Québec, Manitoba and Saskatchewan the three provinces that showed the largest percentage increase in area logged during the 1990s – accounted for most of the national increases in the 1990s.211 The area clearcut in these three provinces accounted for 84 percent of the total cut and the remainder was logged using selective methods.212 Apart from this expansion of area logged, it is also instructive to examine logging volume in the boreal region. For example, since the early 1960s, logging in Alberta has been increasing at an exponential rate.213 The dramatic increase, specific to Alberta, is attributable to government policies 27 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections promoting expansion of the forest industry, the development of infrastructure (roads, mills, etc.), changing technology (e.g., the ability to use aspen for making pulp) and the continuing liquidation of high volume, old-growth forests. Within Canada’s southern boreal region, which is where the commercial forest zone is mostly located, about 128 of the zone’s 182 million hectares are within the commercial forest zone and most of the area is allocated via volume and area-based tenures to the logging industry (Map 5).214 With much of the southernmost forest logged in many regions, timber companies are expanding their operations northward into increasingly economically marginal timber areas. In recent decades, provincial governments have issued forest tenures within extensive portions of Canada’s northern, previously undeveloped boreal region; and this trend continues today.215 Some believe that these expansions are ecologically unsustainable.216 This logging industry trend is having a severe impact on Aboriginal peoples in some regions. Agriculture Despite the short growing season and other constraints imposed by the boreal climate, a significant amount of agricultural activity has occurred within the southern fringe of Canada’s boreal region. In fact, economically marginal boreal lands continue to be cleared for this purpose.217 Agriculture is not only the oldest major, primary industry in the boreal region; it is also the most important with respect to the absolute area of associated forest loss. Between 1949 and 1995, 200 square kilometres per year of boreal forest cover was converted to agricultural land, primarily for small grain cropping and pasture.218 Overall, forest conversion (for agricultural purposes) in the boreal region amounts to about 7.7 million hectares, or about 3 percent of the southern boreal ecozone, and only about 1,000 hectares of the northern taiga ecozones.219 In the Boreal Plains ecozone, farmland has increased by 8 percent between 1975 and 1996.220 Locally, as in parts of Russia, deforestation rates in the boreal-parkland transition area, due to agricultural clearing, have surpassed those in Amazonia, even recently.221 (It is important to recognize the substantial differences in the biodiversity and scale when using these comparisons.) In some Canadian provinces, there is considerable and rapid growth in agriculture and it is officially promoted.222 Although it is not yet known how much future expansion will occur in the boreal region, more land will be required for grazing and forage and for manure disposal. Additional water supplies will be required for new intensive livestock operations. Conventional oil and gas, and oil sands Although Alberta is Canada’s nexus of the oil and gas sector, drilling and seismic work is currently underway in 11 of 13 provinces and territories.223 In addition to its conventional oil and gas deposits, Alberta’s oil sands have 300 billion barrels of proven reserves, more than in all of Saudi Arabia. There has been $51 billion in realized or promised investment in oil sands development between 1996 and 2010. The areas of highest conventional oil and gas potential are in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Conventional oil and gas exploration and development occurs primarily in Alberta and northeastern British Columbia’s boreal region. While the forest industry may eventually supersede it in terms of its environmental impact, the oil and gas industry has likely left the most pervasive and intense “ecological footprint” of any human activity in those provinces’ boreal region. Currently, the oil and gas industry is booming. For example, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, over 16,000 petroleum industry-related wells are now drilled every year. Pipelines 28 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections constitute another significant component of oil and gas industry-related habitat loss and fragmentation. The hydrocarbon industry is likely to expand its activities considerably in Canada’s boreal region over the next few decades. United States President G.W. Bush is calling for:224 working with Alaska and Canada to construct a gas pipeline from the north; working with Mexico and Canada to supply United States’ needs; and, developing Alberta’s oil sands. Canada has an “open arms” response to the Bush proposal. “On energy, they have a problem and they know that Canada is a good provider. Let’s roll up our sleeves together, and get to work.” (Jean Chrétien, Canada’s Prime Minister, April 6, 2001).225 There is pressure to fast track development of Alberta’s oil sands; open up vast areas in Canada’s boreal region for exploration and development, particularly within the western 15-25 percent of Canada’s boreal region; and, open up environmentally sensitive and protected areas.226 The number of natural gas wells drilled in western Canada has increased from about 2,200 in 1990 to about 8,900 in 2000 and this number closely correlates with the price of gas.227 The infrastructure required to support these expected expansions would be both extensive and intensive. Oil Sands Developments. Alberta’s oil sands constitute the world’s second-largest known potential source of oil and represent one-third of its recoverable petroleum resources. Virtually the entire extent of the oil sands lies within the boreal region. The bulk of the oil sands comprise bitumensaturated (bitumen is a black, tar-like substance with a naphthalene base, which characteristically contains a high percentage of sulphur, nitrogen, and trace metals228 ) Together these deposits are estimated to contain 600 million cubic metres of bitumen - equivalent to approximately 300 billion barrels of synthetic crude oil.229 Hydropower generation and water storage Canada is the world’s largest producer of hydro-generated electricity, diverts more water than any other country in the world and has built the largest number of dams, with most of these in the boreal region. 230 As of 1993, the area covered by power generation-related reservoirs in Canada was about equal to that of Lake Ontario, and new reservoirs covering an area one-half that size again were planned.231 Many of the drainage basins in the boreal region have been altered, in whole or in part, by hydroelectric developments (e.g., 85 percent of those in the Boreal Shield Ecozone are affected).232 Probably the best-known and controversial dams in Canada’s boreal region are the La Grande, Phases I and II (i.e., the Great Whale project) in Québec, the Williston Reservoir (the W.C. Bennett Dam) on the Peace River in British Columbia, and the Churchill-Nelson in Manitoba.233 There have been many other controversial dam projects, as well, including the one at Churchill Falls, Labrador. The rivers impounded by the La Grande on the eastern side of James Bay now form some of the largest reservoirs in North America – Phase I alone has a total surface area of impounded water of 11,345 square kilometres.234 Some of these dams, such as the Churchill-Nelson, have been proposed for expansion. The Williston Reservoir, completed in 1968, resulted in the formation of the largest body of fresh water in British Columbia,235 and NRBS [Northern River Basins Study] studies “confirm that the dam has a significant impact on the flow patterns, sediment transport, river morphology, ice formation and habitat along the mainstream Peace River.”236 All of these reservoirs have caused high mercury, and large methane CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere, as well as the loss of subsistence or commercial fisheries. 237 Common to all of these large dams is the loss of indigenous people’s livelihood.238 29 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Mining Approximately 80 percent of the mining in Canada is in the boreal region (Map 6).239 In 1999, mining in Canada contributes: 2.7 percent of national employment; 3.7 percent of national GDP [the contribution of all four stages (mining, smelting and refining, semi fabricating, and metals fabricating) is reported to be 3.7 percent of GDP, for a total of $27.7 billion. Primary mineral production contributes $7.5 billion, or 1 percent];240 7.2 percent of national greenhouse gas emissions; 8 percent of national energy use; 40 percent of national sulphur dioxide emissions; and more than 95 percent of national solid waste generation (650 million tonnes per year, at least 20 percent of which is toxic). Direct employment in mining was 52,300, including quarrying aggregates such as sand and gravel. This is less than half of one percent of national employment. The long-term impacts of mining and the slow recovery rate of the boreal ecosystem couple to make mining of great concern, particularly considering its prevalence. As a result of more readily accessible ore reserves having already been depleted, more mines are being developed in more remote locations. This phenomenon ensures that the mining industry will retain its deserved reputation as a frontierbuster, bringing the roads, power developments and infrastructure with them into the last remaining remote or semi-remote areas. In the boreal region, there are approximately 7,000 abandoned mines (Québec = 800; Ontario = 3,000; Manitoba = 30-100; Alberta = 2,000; Yukon = 120; NWT = 37), 80 operating mines, 42 closed and suspended mines, 66 acid generating abandoned mines, and 25 projects that are in advanced exploration stages or are under development. Primary metals include lead-zinc (Yukon), gold (Yukon, BC, NWT, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec, Labrador-Newfoundland), coal (Alberta), copper-zinc (Manitoba, Ontario, Québec), uranium (Saskatchewan), nickel (Manitoba), platinum group (Ontario), asbestos (Québec), iron ore (Québec, Labrador-Newfoundland). The Boreal Shield Ecozone alone produces about 75 percent of the total Canadian production of iron ore, copper, nickel, gold and silver.241 The Boreal Shield Ecozone in northern Saskatchewan is the largest producer of uranium in the world, accounting for 42 percent of the world’s uranium production.242 Eighty communities in the boreal shield ecozone supply 75 percent of Canada’s iron, nickel, copper, gold and silver. But while mines provide employment and purchase goods and services in communities where they are located, the operations are strongly tied to commodity prices in a cyclical market. The results are often suspended operations and laid-off workers.243 Populations in mining communities fluctuate dramatically. For example, Flin Flon, Manitoba lost 26 percent of its population between 1981 and 1991, Schefferville, Québec lost 85 percent, and Uranium City, Saskatchewan lost almost its entire population (which dropped from 2500 to less than 100).244 30 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Tourism and recreation Tourism is the world’s largest industry; the World Travel and Tourism Council estimates that globally, travel expenditures will increase to U.S. $2.3 trillion by 2010.245 In 2001, tourism spending in Canada was $54.6 billion; of this, Canadians accounted for 70 percent.246 Tourism economic information specific to the boreal is not available. Canadian boreal tourism depends on sustaining the region’s natural capital, as is evidenced in tourism slogans – from “Discover our true nature” (Canadian Tourism) and “Super Natural BC” (British Columbia) to “Land of the Living Sky” (Saskatchewan).247 Jurisdictions in Canada’s boreal have room to enormously expand their tourism industries. Tourism is a fast growing sector internationally, and nature/heritage tourism is the fastest growing component of the tourism sector worldwide. Ecotourism is the fastest growing sector of the worldwide tourism market and was expected to double between 1994 and 2005. According to a U.S. travel survey, 8 million U.S. travelers have taken ecotrips, while 35 million more say they are likely to take one over the next three years. Many of these travelers (27 percent of actual ecotourists and 13 percent of potential ecotourists) live in the Great Lakes Region. Although the boreal is still a minor player in this market, it has real potential for growth. To date, tourism investment in the boreal has been low. For example, in a 2000 report, the Alberta Economic Development Authority stated that “we can develop new tourism opportunities, attract visitors from around the world, and sustain Alberta’s position as a thriving, world class tourism destination. . . . However, a major new tourism destination or international caliber resort facility has not been developed in the province in the last 25 years and Alberta’s infrastructure of tourism is aging.”248 A focus on the tourist potential of boreal Canada is one way of bringing the region’s natural capital assets into bolder relief. However, having suffered through the effects of 9/11, the war in Iraq, and SARS, Canada’s tourism industry unfortunately seems to be facing more bad news. A sharply depreciated U.S. dollar against all major currencies including the Canadian dollar will further crimp foreign travel spending in Canada.249 The speed of recovery and growth of this industry is presently uncertain. 2 Box 4. Examples of tourism-recreation issues and potentials in the boreal Alberta An Alberta study found that outdoor activities account for approximately 50 percent of respondents’ recreational activities.250 The same study found that 59 percent of Albertans visited a provincial park in the past year. The tourism data show that parks and protected areas do generate revenue, that they have economic value in the face of increasing pressure for development in environmentally sensitive areas. For example, another Alberta study found that tourism generates revenue for the province that, while not in the leagues of the energy, forestry and agriculture sectors, is still considerable.251 Ontario252 Tourism makes a significant contribution to Ontario’s economy; it generated $11.5 billion in direct expenditures in 1994.253 It is the province’s fourth largest export, close behind the wood products industry. It is even more important in northern resource-based communities, where the employment generated by tourism often rivals the forestry, mining or manufacturing sectors. In 31 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 1992, visitors spent $14.5 million on Ontario provincial park fees and a total of $299.5 million on their trips to the parks. Provincial parks in Ontario received 8.4 million visitors in 1993, a 62% increase from 1981. Northern Ontario254 — In Northern Ontario hunting and fishing lodges currently employ more than 15,000 people. Remote fishing and guided-hunting operations rely on remote lakes with no road access. There are now only 40 roadless areas larger than 200 sq. km left in Northern Ontario, south of the 50th parallel. Only four areas over 1,000 sq. km. in size exist outside of parks. Bruce Peninsula255 — People in the local community have the ability to benefit economically — particularly if they take the initiative to work together in promoting the region’s natural values and providing facilities and services that cater to the new clientele. The experience of the Bruce Peninsula National Park and Fathom Five Marine Park in Ontario is a case in point. Where only one park-operated campground existed in the 1970s, today there are 6 other privately operated campgrounds and the facilities are at capacity during high season. With park visitors directly spending $8 million annually in the region, 90% of the local economy is tourism based. More than 130,000 people hiked the Bruce Trail from July to November, 1994. Two key reasons were cited for this success. First, the wide range of available activities, including boat tours, hiking, guided birdwatching, scuba diving and visiting the islands, encourage multiple-day excursions. Secondly, Bruce County and parks personnel have collaborated with the private sector to form the Bruce Peninsula Tourism Association to promote and market the area. Algonquin — Communities around Algonquin Park have taken advantage of opportunities, surrounding the park with lodges, outfitters and suppliers. The Muskoka region sees itself as the gateway to the park. The region is very successful in capturing dollars from tourists en route to Algonquin. In addition to attracting park visitors, the scenic quality of the area attracts 88,000 cottagers who each make an average of 13 trips each year to the region. Tourism brings $300 million into the area annually and is responsible for half of all jobs in a district population of 35,000.2 The region has more than 300 hotels, lodges, and bed and breakfasts, and regularly organizes events such as a cranberry festival and an artists’ studio tour. As well, hiking, biking and snowmobiling trails have been built through both private and Crown land in the area. Algoma256 -- The Algoma region has not developed as a tourist destination point to the same degree as Muskoka and the Bruce Peninsula, even though it has a beautiful and rugged landscape and several high-quality wilderness areas. Algoma could benefit greatly from the creation of new protected areas as well as through cooperative tourism ventures and marketing. A greater emphasis on bringing together tourism attractions in Algoma would help to keep tourists in the region longer and could increase revenues greatly. Demand is increasing for natural wilderness experiences in the Algoma region. For example, passenger numbers on the Algoma Central Railway (ACR) Snow Train in 1996 were up 25% over the previous year, with more than 13,000 passengers taking the day trip. The ACR’s summer train to Agawa Canyon, meanwhile, carried more than 80,000 riders, which clearly demonstrates the attractiveness of the area for tourism. The ACR, however, is considering closing its unique flag-and-whistle train service that links a number of wilderness lodges along the rail line, which would be a step back for tourism in the region. Park visitors are not the only source of economic gains for nearby areas. New “footloose” industries — businesses not tied to any one geographical area — are also attracted to highquality scenic areas. In the U.S. “footloose” information, engineering and service industries have 32 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections relocated next to parks for years. For example in the Pacific Northwest, where parks were opposed for many years on the basis of potential resource-industry job losses, growth in jobs and earnings have been two- to four-times that of the national economy. The attractive natural environment is especially important in attracting new high-tech businesses that are driving the economy. Elliot Lake257 In Elliot Lake, the $60 million per year in lost wages from closed uranium mines has been largely replaced by $40 million from retirees. It was, in part, the region’s 4,000 undeveloped lakes, miles of good trails, and high-quality scenery in Mississauga Provincial Park that made the area attractive to the newcomers. Industry “hot spots” Concentrations of industry activity in the boreal over the coming years are likely, as follows: 2 Petroleum exploration and development in the boreal portions of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin 2 Logging and associated roading in the southern boreal (Boreal Plains and southern portion of the Boreal Shield) 2 Agricultural expansion in the southern boreal in the Prairie provinces 2 Hydro developments in Québec, Manitoba and perhaps the Northwest Territories. 2 Mines – both abandoned industrial sites (mines, orphan petroleum sites), and new mines in the taiga. 33 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Emerging Issues and Projections Main issues / regional issues / case study areas Main issues258 Aboriginal influence Throughout Canada’s boreal region, Aboriginal peoples may eventually have one of the dominant decision-making influences. In the allocated portions, conflicts will likely escalate among energy (both hydro and petroleum), forest company tenure holders and Aboriginal peoples, as many Aboriginal peoples will view some allocations as having occurred without their consent. 2 Aboriginal peoples have interests in most of Canada’s forested lands, with historic treaties, 2 2 2 2 2 modern-day treaties, ongoing negotiations and other assertions of claim. Aboriginal peoples have rights to self-government, rights to land, rights to hunt, trap and fish, customary law, and distinct cultural and religious practices. Recent court decisions have determined that management activities that curtail traditional Aboriginal activities (through fragmentation or loss of habitat) impede existing Aboriginal and treaty rights, and that forestry companies have the obligation to exercise due diligence in order to ensure that Aboriginal rights are not infringed upon. Aboriginal communities within forest regions have significantly lower average incomes and employment rates than Aboriginal communities outside the forest regions. Aboriginal communities within the commercial forest zone have significantly lower average incomes than Aboriginal communities within forest regions but outside the commercial forest zone. Aboriginal organizations (such as the National Aboriginal Forestry Association) are becoming increasingly active players, with interests in establishing and protecting Aboriginal and Treaty rights, protecting cultural and traditional places, uses and values, conserving the ecological integrity of their forests and participating more directly in commercial forestry. Increasingly First Nations and other Aboriginal peoples are engaging in community forestry and First Nation-led land use planning. Alternative economic generators 2 Alternative fibers/recycling are a growing issue. A number of publishers are printing books on recycled stock, with the most notable recent case being the Canadian edition of the newest Harry Potter tome. Agricultural wastes offer another potential source of fiber that could reduce logging pressures. 2 A focus on the tourist potential of boreal Canada is one way of bringing the region’s natural capital assets into bolder relief. However, 9/11, the war in Iraq, SARS and a sharply depreciating U.S. dollar may result in Canada’s tourism industry making a slow economic recovery. Advances in new boreal tourism initiatives may be slow during the next 5-10 years. 2 Ecotourism (responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment and improves the well-being of local people) is the fastest growing sector of a worldwide tourism market which has been expected to double between 1994 and 2005. According to a United States travel survey, 8 million U.S. travelers have taken ecotrips, while 35 million more say they are likely to take one over the next three years. Adventure tourism (activity-based with a distinction between hard and soft adventure tourism: hard adventure tourism introduces tourists to natural outdoor settings, engages them in a variety of activities in a challenging environment where risk taking is the key motivation; soft adventure tourism is exciting and is often educational -- discovery, the 34 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections environment, heritage, and indigenous culture are common aspects -- and guided tours are frequently the medium by which tourists achieve that experience) is also growing in popularity. 2 Increasing the role of value-added industries259 (e.g., production of processed wood products, such as furniture and cabinetry, using regionally-sourced raw materials) is often cited as an important mechanism to stabilize the economies of boreal communities. Certification and market action Market-driven change through independent certification and/or specific anti-producer market actions is already having an impact which will likely increase and peak in the next 5-10 years. Leading players will be large, integrated forest companies. As of 2001, Canada lagged behind other major competing regions in the certification of softwood lumber products.260 2 Market mobilization campaign organizations focus their campaigning attention on consumers of boreal forest products and the logging companies that supply the wood and pulp. 2 Forest certification offers companies independent assurance that their forest management and 2 2 2 2 forestry practices meet predetermined criteria. Surveyed forest companies selected ISO 14001 as the certification vehicle best matched to their companies needs (48 percent), followed by Canadian Standards Association (17 percent), and with Forest Stewardship Council at 6 percent.261 The Canadian Standard Association system (28.4 million hectares certified in Canada) has strong requirements for public participation, but has been criticized for its lack of performance requirements. The Sustainable Forestry Initiative (unknown amount of certified forests in Canada) is an initiative of the American Forest and Paper Association, and is not accepted by most conservation groups. The Forest Stewardship Council (4.2 million hectares certified in Canada) is the only system that has the strong support from the major conservation groups and Aboriginal groups. Although certification started out as voluntary initiative, it is quickly becoming the norm, and has been made a requirement by both the Forest Products Association of Canada for its members as well as by the government of New Brunswick for license-holders on public land in that province. Clean-up of polluted sites and pollution-rich industries 2 Some have estimated that more than 50,000 orphaned petroleum sites exist in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. (An orphan in this sense is a well, pipeline, facility, or site left with no one to clean it up.) 2 There are approximately 7,000 abandoned mines in boreal Canada. 2 Effluents from forest product mills will continue to receive attention, although much progress has been made since the 1992 regulations. 2 Such cleanups can create job opportunities in local boreal communities. Climate change There will likely be numerous and profound changes to boreal Canada as a result of climate warming along with atmospheric insults such as acid deposition and increased exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Although some of the most profound changes in wetland, aquatic and upland boreal ecosystems will occur beyond the next 5-10 years, others are already well underway. 2 Large unfragmented forests offer crucial opportunities for species to adapt to a changing climate and migrate into more suitable climatic regions. 35 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 2 Although most boreal carbon is stored in peatlands and lake sediments, trees store carbon in biomass and release carbon into the atmosphere as a result of logging or natural disturbances. Where growth exceeds the losses from disturbances (such as a young regenerating forest) the forest is a net carbon sink. In primary forests being logged for the first time, however, there is a significant loss of carbon as the average age (and volume) of the forest is reduced. 2 The Kyoto Protocol will require Canada to account for carbon changes (positive and negative) due to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation. Canada has the option of accounting for all of the changes in carbon stocks across the entire managed forest. Depending on how decisions unfold in the coming two years, there could be tradeable offsets for certain forest management activities, which would create the possibility of a new source of financial resources, flowing from the energy sector to the forestry sector. Those resources have the potential to help or hinder forest conservation efforts. 2 Overall, there is an ineffective response to the sufficiently robust current results that conclude that global warming poses sufficient environmental and economic risks to the boreal, including increased impacts of diseases, insects, fires, severe weather events and other stressors. Community-based forestry and decision-making 2 There is a growing interest in community-based forestry, although the term covers a wide range of degrees of delegation of control, from community input to active community involvement to community ownership and control. However, existing long-term tenure arrangements with large integrated (often multi-national) companies, reduce opportunities for community-based forestry. 2 Many governments have experimented only on a limited basis with community-based forestry, with British Columbia having the most experience. 2 Community-based forestry has the greatest potential for substantial growth, in the next 5-10 years, among First Nations communities in British Columbia, the Kaska Nation in southeastern Yukon, and the Innu Nation in Labrador. 2 Escalating interest in community-based decision-making will conflict with globalization. Creative partnerships and alliances In searching for solutions, partly as a result of companies wanting to increase their market share, there will likely be many creative partnerships and alliances: 2 The Boreal Forest Conservation Framework was signed in 2003 by some conservation organizations, First Nations and resource companies and proposes a vision to safeguard Canada’s boreal forests and wetlands.262 2 Increasing partnerships are likely among Canadian environmental groups and between them and hemispheric and international conservation organizations. 2 Increasing regional partnerships and coordination between conservation organizations and First Nations have resulted and will continue to result in significant conservation gains. 2 Some government agencies, such as Natural Resources Canada, industry associations and companies, will likely increasingly “reach out” to environmental organizations to form partnerships. 36 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Energy developments There will be increasing attention to upstream and downstream effects of the petroleum and hydro industries, plus to alternative energy sources and to energy conservation and more efficient use. Petroleum (conventional – oil and gas, and non-conventional – oil sands) and hydro-electricity will place enormous demands for rapid exploration and developments up to potentially 25 percent of Canada’s boreal region. Endangered species and species at risk Increasing national and hemispheric attention to the weak endangered species laws in Canada will result in a focus on some boreal species and their habitats, such as widespread but sensitive woodland caribou and secondarily, on regional charismatic and sensitive species such as grizzly bear. Such attention will assist in drawing attention to the need to strengthen endangered species legislation so that it will provide a lever to gain habitat protection for non-charismatic endangered species that would otherwise be completely forgotten, because of the difficulty of generating highprofile public sympathy for them. Environmental reviews 2 There are unreasonable exemptions for public environmental reviews of long-term tenure allocations. 2 There are de facto exemptions when existing laws are not enforced (e.g., Fisheries Act, Migratory Birds Convention Act). 2 Public individuals and groups will be increasingly interested in citizen audits of industries’ behavior, as a reaction to reduced government oversight (reduced budgets, staff reductions, and move toward voluntary compliance) and expanding industrial ecological footprints. 2 Citizens and citizen groups will increasingly be looking at international organizations and agreements (e.g., Commission on Environmental Cooperation). Forests and forest landscapes of special interest Old growth forests, endangered forests, intact forests, high conservation value forests (including non-treed areas within forested boreal ecological regions) will receive increasing attention through Forest Stewardship Council certifications and markets campaigns. Provincial, territorial and federal governments will respond to varying degrees. Alberta and British Columbia will likely be the most intransigent governments to respond, due to intensive boreal forestland uses by the lucrative oil and gas energy sector. 2 The term “old growth forest” once referred mainly to the ancient coastal rainforests in B.C., but is now applied more broadly to boreal forests that are old (roughly 18 percent of Canada’s forests) or to all forests that have never been harvested (70 percent). 2 In recent years there has been growing attention paid to the world’s remaining intact or primary forests, about a quarter of which are located in Canada’s northern boreal region 2 The terms “endangered forests” or “high conservation value forests” are used to delineate forests and forest landscapes (including non-treed areas such as wetlands) that meet any of a 37 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections number of criteria, including intactness, habitat for species at risk, critical importance for local needs, etc. 2 Federal protected areas, existing and proposed, for the boreal will continue to receive special attention (e.g., national parks, national wildlife areas, migratory bird sanctuaries). Global trade Since Canada’s primary resource extraction products sector depends on exports, especially to the United States, global and particularly hemispheric demand will drive the intensity of resource extraction operations in Canada, and will tend to drive prices downward in the near future, at least for wood products. (Domestic factors such as minimum-stumpage salvage logging of trees with insect epidemics will also continue to flood the international market with cheap wood.) Competition from plantation forestry in the southeast United States will continue to influence protectionist interests in the Unites States. Competition from forest plantations in South America (especially Brazil) and from cheap wood from Russia will have a potentially enormous but-as-yet-unknown impact in the next 5-10 years. 2 The demands of the United States for boreal Canada’s wood, wood products, and energy will have an escalating influence on Canada’s boreal. Canadian forest products exports to U.S. dominate global trade and 80 percent of Canada’s forest product exports go to United States. Canada supplies one third of the United States consumption of dimensional lumber. Countering the United States’ increasing demands for cheap wood is its increasing protectionism, as witnessed in the softwood lumber negotiations. 2 There will be enormous downward pressure on prices due to retailer demands (e.g., Home Depot, IKEA) for cheaper supplies. Increasing competition is likely from Russia as it is presently harvesting at most 20 percent of its apparent sustainable annual allowable cut and as it has relatively lax enforcement of laws. The harvest is likely to double or triple in next 10 years or so. As well, plantations in Brazil and other more productive regions with better climate are increasingly producing rapid growing and cheaper trees. The losers will be traditional, higher cost producers (perhaps in Canada and Europe). 2 There will be enormous demands from the United States for energy (hydro and petroleum). Focal areas will be non-conventional petroleum sources from Alberta oil sands, conventional sources from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (focused increasingly along the Mackenzie River valley), and hydro-electricity from Québec, Manitoba and perhaps the Northwest Territories. Government/industry approaches to economic/environmental issues, information and disclosure 2 Unnecessarily divisive government-sponsored actions that prevent or constrain cooperative 2 2 2 2 problem solving (there are many examples of flawed land use planning exercises) will come under increasing scrutiny. There will be expanded opportunities for political leadership to implement progressive land use plans. The presumption that the economic benefits of increasing extractive and development activities necessarily exceed the full accounting costs will be aggressively challenged. Key information, such as detailed forest inventories (timber and other forest values), will be in high demand. Data and information regarding public forestland which is held by governments and companies will come under increasing pressure to be disclosed at zero to minimal costs, as public rights to access of information are behind that of some other countries. 38 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Government progress on addressing boreal issues In 1999, the Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry’s Subcommittee on the Boreal Forest published Competing Realities: The Boreal Forest at Risk.263 The Subcommittee Report contained 35 recommendations intended to ensure that Canada adopt “a natural forest landscape-based approach to managing a boreal forest that is coming increasingly under siege.” Governments have initiated a number of strategies and accords: 2 National Forest Strategy Coalition. National Forest Strategy (2003-2008): Sustainable Forests: A Canadian Commitment (May 2003). 2 Canadian Council of Forest Ministers/National Forest Strategy Coalition. Canada Forest Accord 2003-2008 (May 2003). 2 Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. National Forest Strategy, 1998-2003: Sustainable Forests—A Canadian Commitment and the Canada Forest Accord (May 1998). 2 Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. Forest 2020: What is it, and where is it going? The Canadian Boreal Initiative assessed progress toward meeting the recommendations of the Senate Committee.264 Some progress has been made to promote conservation of the boreal forest region since the Senate report was tabled in 1999. Governments have made efforts to extend the range of parks and protected areas in the boreal region, and to improve data collection. The forestry industry has moved forward on promoting certification of sustainable forestry practices. However, the Canadian Boreal Initiative concluded that overall, governments have made little progress in meeting many of the Subcommittee’s recommendations. Of most serious concern is that governments have taken little action in response to the Senate Subcommittee’s main recommendation of creating a land-use planning process that would set the conservation of natural ecosystems as the priority in 80 percent of the boreal region. It is also of strong concern that little progress has been made to address the committee’s recommendations related to Aboriginal peoples. In 1998, the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development reported that, far too often, the government was failing to meet the promises made to Canadians and the international community in environmental matters.265 The Commissioner focused on the United Nations Framework on Climate Change and the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity and reported that Canada will not meet its commitments and has no overall strategy, respectively. Incentives for resource conservation Increasing attention will be paid to perverse subsidies (tax-payer funded infrastructure and research/information support, tax benefits) and inefficient pricing (e.g. stumpage), as subsidies and inefficient pricing encourage waste and discourage conservation by hiding from consumers the full costs of resource-intensive activities. Management of public forests There will be many key emerging issues regarding government and industry management of public forestlands, including: 2 Land use planning initiatives, especially in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Yukon, and British Columbia 2 Tenure allocations and public consultation. 2 First Nations economic benefits agreements 39 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 2 Clearcutting versus partial cutting 2 Non-timber forest values (e.g., conservation/recreation/tourism) as dominant forest land use in key locations 2 Demands for shift from timber-based to ecosystem-based forest planning and management 2 Removal of the requirement for forest companies to construct mills in exchange for tenure 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 allocations (could be considered abrogation of a social contract) Demands for full cost accounting for adverse impacts on ecological services and biodiversity Reduced oversight by federal and provincial agencies Increasing voluntary audit and compliance of industry by citizen groups Growth in demands for increasing role of Aboriginal peoples Slow shift from cutting primary forests to secondary, post-regeneration forests. Increased attention to southern boreal conversion of softwoods to hardwoods due to reduced second-cut timelines, fires and pests Plantations and intensive forest management will be at least locally significant. Plantations and intensive forest management There has been increasing interest in using plantations and intensive forest management to reduce logging pressures in natural forests and/or to compensate for timber lost through protected area setasides. However, some experts believe that Canada’s generally poor soils and harsh climate are not conducive to plantation forestry on a large scale and that claims of potential yields are often inflated. Plantation forestry is usually only a concept considered for the allocated forests and has not commonly been applied to unallocated forests. 2 The Senate Subcommittee on the Boreal Forest recommended a “triad” approach, with 20 2 2 2 2 percent intensively managed, 20 percent protected and 60 percent managed primarily for biodiversity conservation. The Canadian Boreal Initiative has called for all forests to be managed under ecosystem-based plans and harvested with best practices where logging is appropriate. The federal government is exploring an initiative called “Forest 2020,” which would promote the establishment of fast-growing plantations on marginal or abandoned farmlands, which may largely be outside the boreal region. Alberta Pacific Forest Industries is investigating a significant move toward plantation forestry of hardwoods on marginal farmland in Alberta’s southern boreal. There is an interest in plantations from agencies interested in buying or selling carbon credits that may arise under the Kyoto Protocol for afforestation efforts. Plantations are likely to continue to be viewed critically by conservation groups, with some opposed in principle, and others whose acceptance will depend on the prior land use, the practices employed and the use to which the fiber is put. Some plantation systems will not be certifiable under some certification schemes. Protected areas The demand for large protected areas to serve as benchmarks and to contain the ranges of wideranging, sensitive species, will be achievable in the northern, un-allocated boreal and will be highly challenging throughout the southern boreal, where long term, often multi-layered tenures have already been allocated. 2 World Wildlife Fund Canada’s current assessment shows that of the 437 forested natural regions in Canada only 5 percent are adequately represented in protected areas, 19 percent are moderately represented, 41 percent are partially represented and 35 percent are not represented. 40 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 2 In 2003 there was significant federal progress (with commitment to establish new and expanded 2 2 2 2 2 national parks) as well as progress in some provinces (especially Québec). However, many of these are still “paper” commitments. Increasing attention is being paid to broad-scale conservation area design and giving consideration to a variety of protection, mitigation and restoration measures across the entire landscape, including core protected areas, buffer zones, special management areas and connectivity corridors. There is widespread inadequate investment in parks and protected areas, at provincial and national levels for assessment, legislation, and management. All terrain vehicles will increasingly be an issue in parks and protected areas. Demands for “fire-proofing” the forest will result in political pressure to log protected areas. The petroleum and mining industries will continue to strongly advocate for access into protected areas. Examples of emerging conservation hot spots are: 2 Newfoundland and Labrador – northern peninsula; Mealy Mountains 2 Québec – allocated (tenured) forest region 2 Ontario – “Heart of the Boreal” north of the allocated forest (51o north); intact areas along the northern edge of allocated forest. 2 Manitoba – east side of Lake Winnipeg to Ontario border, Manitoba Lowlands. 2 Saskatchewan – Black Bear Island Lake (Churchill River), Foster Lakes, Fond du Lac River 2 Alberta – Chinchaga, Athabasca Heartland, Lakeland 2 British Columbia – Muskwa-Kechika Management Area 2 Yukon – southeast Yukon; creating new national park in Natural Region 7 (Northern Cassiar Mountains); Peel River watershed (Wind, Snake, and Bonnet Plume Rivers). 2 Northwest Territories – Mackenzie River valley, Nahanni. Regional issues Newfoundland and Labrador 2 Large forest tenures expire in 2005 and 2010. A wood shortage on the Island makes conservation difficult to achieve; the Premier has promised to keep the mills supplied with wood. 2 Increasing attention will be paid on conserving old growth boreal forests on the Great Northern Peninsula. 2 A partnership between the provincial government and the Innu Nation has resulted in a genuine ecosystem-based forest management plan in Labrador. Québec 2 In response to the huge impact of the scathing documentary film L’Erreur Boreale, Québec’s auditor general issued a similarly scathing review of forestry practices. 2 An independent Forestry Commission will hold public hearings and make recommendations to government in 2004. 2 Planned and potential hydro projects (Rupert River diversion, reviving Great Whale) would likely have enormous negative conservation impacts. 2 Recent progress on protected areas identification and establishment. 41 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Ontario 2 The “Northern Boreal Initiative” will expand logging north of the existing frontier if First Nation communities agree. 2 The Ontario Forest Accord’s “Room to Grow” agreement delineates a compromise agreement with ensures that subsequent increases in wood supply will be shared between industry growth and establishment of protected areas in the existing forestry tenure areas. 2 The recent Timber Environmental Assessment ruling fails to develop an old growth policy, removes requirements for government to develop access management plans, and removes upper limits on clearcuts. 2 Increasing conflict between Aboriginal peoples First Nations, and logging companies and government on traditional territories (e.g., Grassy Narrows). Manitoba 2 Planning is currently underway to develop the east side of Lake Winnipeg with new roads, hydro projects, mills and logging leases. 2 Additional proposed hydro developments. Saskatchewan 2 Government plans to double the level of forestry activity. 2 Significant problem of under -stocked and poorly regenerated forests due to past logging practices. 2 Three land-use planning processes underway, showing varying degrees of promise. Alberta 2 Serious forest fragmentation due to oil and gas exploration and development. The provincial government is reluctant to constrain the petroleum industries’ activities due to lucrative revenues. 2 Exponential growth in logging rates over the last few decades. 2 Overlapping quotas and other tenures for forestry companies make it hard for private sector innovation to be effective without government cooperation. British Columbia 2 Results Based Code shifts monitoring to forest companies; moves away from prescriptive measures in previous Code. 2 Government proposing logging in parks, including boreal parks, ostensibly to control mountain pine beetle in southern portion of province and to “fire-proof” the forest. 2 Good models for government-led planning processes (Muskwa- Kechika) as well as marketbased ones (Great Bear Rainforest). 2 British Columbia’s boreal region, especially in the Boreal Plains Ecozone, is under intensive and escalating logging and petroleum developments and has received little attention for conservation, in comparison with the Pacific Coast and Montane Cordillera ecozones. Yukon 2 Forest policy is under development, with a focus on smaller-scale approaches and local/FN economic benefits from logging. 42 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 2 Government MOU with the Kaska First Nation calls for the development of an ecosystem- based management plan for 110,000 square kilometres. 2 Development of a new Environmental Assessment policy that encompasses socio-economic assessment. 2 Cancellation of the territorial protected areas strategy. No formal context for integrated protected areas planning. Northwest Territories 2 The Mackenzie Valley pipeline promises to be a divisive issue, with some First Nations supporting it as part of a comprehensive agreement, some conservation groups supporting it in exchange for conservation commitments and others opposing the pipeline because of its role in oil sands developments and detrimental effects on local cultures. Nunavut 2 Few forests and virtually no forestry in Nunavut. 2 Wildlife Act currently in development. Case study areas The following section briefly examines three case study areas – the Alberta Pacific FMA area, the Abitibi-Consolidated Iroquois Falls area, and the Muskwa-Kechika Management area – in relation to general information on major economic drivers, tourism issues/potentials, and amount of remaining large intact forest landscapes. Alberta Pacific FMA Area This case study area focuses on Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries, the oil and gas (especially oil sands), and tourism in the Alberta Pacific FMA area. This study area in northeastern Alberta is focused on the 59,000 square kilometre Forest Management Agreement Area (FMA) (Map 7a) and the pulp mill in Boyle, Alberta.266 AlbertaPacific’s mill is North America’s largest single line kraft pulp mill. It is budgeted to produce 560,000 air-dried metric tonnes (ADt) of kraft pulp per year, 90 percent of which is hardwood and 10 percent of which is softwood. The FMA area is heavily impacted by logging, conventional oil and gas exploration and development and non-conventional (oil sands) petroleum exploration and development (Map 7a shows the distribution of energy wellsites in the larger region). Within the FMA, there are over 112,000 kilometres of linear disturbances (roads, pipelines, seismic lines, railroads and powerlines), and over 155,000 hectares covered by these and other land uses (wellsites, settlemenets)267 (Maps 7b, 7c and 7d). Very little of the FMA area consists of large intact forest landscapes (Map 7a). Alberta Pacific Forest Industries Inc. provides more than 1,000 jobs directly and through contracts, and contributes nearly $200 million annually to the regional economy. 268 In 1999, the company’s $191 million expenditures in Alberta included $39 million in salaries and benefits, $5 million in property taxes, $4 million in road and bridge maintenance, and $40 million for contracting and locally purchased supplies and equipment. Alberta’s oil sands comprise one of the world’s two largest sources of bitumen; the other is in Venezuela. Oil sands are found in three places in Alberta – the Athabasca, Peace River and Cold 43 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Lake regions – and cover a total of nearly 141,000 square kilometres. Oil sands currently represent 40 percent of Alberta’s total oil production, and about one-third of all the oil produced in Canada. By 2005, oil sands production is expected to represent 50 percent of Canada’s total crude oil output, and 10 percent of North American crude oil production. Much of the oil sands is within or adjacent to Alberta Pacific’s FMA area. Bitumen makes up about 10-12 percent of the actual oil sands found in Alberta. The remainder is 80-85 percent mineral matter – including sand and clays – and 4-6 percent water. While conventional crude oil flows naturally or is pumped from the ground, oil sands must be mined or recovered in situ – meaning “in place.” Oil sands recovery processes include extraction and separation systems to remove the bitumen from sand and water. Some statistics: 2 1.6 trillion barrels of oil sands are in place, 311 billion barrels of which are ultimately recoverable; 2 Present production is 740,000 barrels per day; 2 In the 2001-02 fiscal year, royalties amounted to $185 million; and 2 Employment (total oil and gas) is 66,000. Although tourism figures specifically for the Alberta Pacific case study area are not available, a study for northern Alberta concluded that 1.5 million person visits were made to destinations within northern Alberta by Albertans, other Canadians and visitors from the U.S. and overseas.269 The trips included day trips and overnight trips. Tourism generated $251 million in consumer spending in the region during the one-year period. Alberta North received 7 percent of the total person visits to Alberta. The region was responsible for 5.7 percent of Alberta’s total tourism revenues. The majority (97 percent) of the 1,468,000 person visits in Alberta North were made by Canadians. Most (82 percent) of these person trips were made by Albertans, while BC visitors accounted for 15 percent. This area will undergo enormous environmental challenges in the next few decades due to the multilayered resource extraction tenures and the intensive activity that will be required to develop the infrastructure to support the various industrial sectors. Abitibi-Consolidated Iroquois Falls Area This case study area focuses on Abitibi-Consolidated tenures and mills, the mining sector, and tourism in the Abitibi-Consolidated Iroquois Falls area (Map 8a). Abitibi-Consolidated in the Iroquois Falls and Nighthawk Forests area, which extend from the Québec border in the east to the north, south and west of Cochrane and Timmins (Ontario), covers approximately 1.6 million hectares of Crown land (Map 8a). 270 The Abitibi-Consolidated mill in Iroquois Falls is the largest consumer of forest products in the area and consists of two groundwood pulp paper machines (newsprint and specialty paper) that produce approximately 300 million tonnes of newsprint and specialty papers. Abitibi employs approximately 1,000 people in the Iroquois Falls area (500 in the mill).271 Mining is an important industry in the general area (Map8b). There are several mines that produce gold, silver, lead, cadmium, selenium, zinc, and indium. Tourism plays an important role in the regional economy. There are a total of 47 commercial outpost camps on the Abitibi forestland area, of which 32 are remote (fly-in). There are 4 Provincial Parks within or adjacent to the area that plays a role in tourism: Kettle Lakes, Esker Lakes, Little Abitibi and Abitibi-deTroys Provincial Parks. Bear hunting is another important non-industrial use of the forest, with 27 bear outfitters operating on specified Bear Management Areas (BMAs) in the forest. Other uses of the forest include trapping and baitfish harvesting. Trapping is conducted on 72 active traplines. 44 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections There are remaining substantial areas of large intact forest landscapes both within and adjacent to this area. Properly managed, the area could remain viable for a variety of economic sectors and ecological and wilderness protection. Muskwa-Kechika Management Area This case study area focuses on the Muskwa-Kechika management area, the mining sector, and tourism in this area. The Muskwa-Kechika Management Area encompasses an area of approximately 4.45 million hectares of Crown land in British Columbia where extensive boreal plains and muskeg of the east meet the Rocky Mountains of the west (Map 9). It is one of the few remaining large, intact and almost unroaded wilderness areas south of the 60th parallel in Canada. The management intent for the Muskwa-Kechika Management Area is to ensure wilderness characteristics, and wildlife and its habitat are maintained over time while allowing resource development and use, including recreation, timber harvesting, mineral exploration and mining, and oil and gas exploration and development. The integration of management activities especially related to the planning, development and management of road accesses within the Muskwa-Kechika Management Area is central to achieving this intent. The long-term objective is to return lands to their natural state, as much as possible, as development activities are completed. Timber resources in the Muskwa-Kechika Management Area are relatively limited. The majority of the timber harvesting land base for the Fort Nelson, Peace, and Mackenzie forest districts exists outside of the Muskwa-Kechika Management Area. In the general area in which Muskwa-Kechika is located, i.e., the Fort Nelson Land and Resource Management Plan area, the petroleum reserves are provincially significant. As of 1994, an estimated 1500 persons in the planning area were employed in the oil and gas sector, likely in mainly seasonal occupations. Since most of these individuals do not reside in the area, it is estimated that 250-450 area residents are employed in the energy sector on a relatively permanent basis, accounting for 10-20 percent of the local economy. The Census also indicates that there are almost 100 local gas processing jobs, and given the high amount of oil/gas activity in the mid-1990s, there may now exist up to about 350 local full-time and seasonal jobs in natural gas exploration/extraction. In the general planning area, there are no major metal mines operating, or seeking approvals through the Environmental Assessment process. Most of this sector’s current activity involves exploration projects; there are a number of promising indications of potential for new mines at some point in the future, even though the area is relatively unexplored. Current employment is estimated at some 25-30 Fort Nelson residents directly or indirectly employed in this sector (about 1 percent of local employment). The general region is experiencing growth in commercial tourism and general public outdoor recreation.272 The planning area also offers nature-based tourism and outdoor recreation experiences with significant longer term potential. It is this “backcountry” component that is quite dependent on relatively pristine environmental resources to attract visitors, and therefore is the portion of the sector that is most sensitive to changes in Crown land use. The industry can therefore be divided into two main categories: “front-country” (i.e., highway/community) tourism and “back-country” (i.e., nature-based) tourism, which collectively drive from 5 percent to 15 percent of the local economy. The front-country component accounts for the majority of the area’s 250-300 tourism jobs, and much of this activity is currently dependent on accommodation, food, etc. expenditures made by 45 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections workers in the resource industries. The back-country portion consists mainly of the guide-outfitters, who are responsible for an estimated 47 “person years” of employment, but due to the seasonal nature of the work, there are actually about 180 individuals who work at least part of the year in this sector. The Fort Nelson LRMP should offer greater certainty to the area’s guiding industry for at least the foreseeable future, since 8 of the area’s 15 guide-outfitting territories at least partially overlap protected areas, within which this activity is an allowable use subject to permit. In addition, several other territories guide outfitting territories overlay in the Muskwa-Kechika Special Management Category of Resource Management Zones. While the outlook is therefore reasonably optimistic, future growth in backcountry tourism could be constrained in the long term due to expanding timber harvesting and petroleum/mineral activities into currently unaccessed areas. The area contains very substantial amounts of large intact forest landscapes and the regions to the west and north also are comprised mostly of large intact forest landscapes. Landsat 7 Satellite Image of the Swan Hills area in Alberta, 2000. The colours represent the following: Pink - large irregular areas are recent fires; small blocks are recent clearcuts. Dark Green - coniferous forest. Light green - large irregular area is and older fire area; other irregular areas are deciduous forests; small blocks are young forest (i.e., older clearcuts). The yellow line represents a potential intact forest landscape. What will the boreal ecosystem generally look like in the next 5-10 years? Climate change “trumps all” There will likely be many and profound changes to Canada’s boreal region as a result of climate warming, along with atmospheric insults such as acid deposition and increased exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Some of these changes, although perhaps beyond the next 5-10 years, include: 2 temperature increases greater than the world average; 2 shift from a carbon sink to a global carbon source; 46 Global Forest Watch Canada 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections release of vast amounts of carbon from oxidization of peat lands; reduction of the area of the boreal region; northward shift of the boreal region; large increases in biological activity; increases in timber supply in some areas but overall decreases due to increased fires and insect outbreaks and a decrease in the extent of the boreal region; likely declines in older-aged forests as the fire cycle intensifies; hydrological changes and reduction of total area of wetlands; increase in warm water aquatic species; shrinkage of permafrost extent; expansions of exotic and invasive species; and, species extirpations and perhaps extinctions. Increased fragmentation 2 Exploration and development of petroleum resources; 2 Roading due to expansion of logging. Forest conversion 2 Cutting timeline reduced for second cut and resulting decline of old growth; 2 Shift from softwoods to hardwoods, and from treed to non-treed areas due to regeneration challenges and fires. Fisheries declines 2 Increased access; 2 Conversion of some southern boreal lakes from cold water species to warm water species. Sensitive wildlife species declines and local extirpations 2 Woodland caribou throughout its southern range, especially in Alberta; 2 Grizzly bear, especially in Alberta; 2 Wood warblers (Connecticut Warblers, Rusty Blackbirds and Canada Warblers), especially in the Prairie Provinces; 2 Ducks (Canvasback, White-winged scoter, Lesser scaup), in western boreal region; 2 Newfoundland marten; 2 Amphibians, throughout the range. Protected areas 2 Significant new protected areas, especially in the taiga ecozones and those boreal ecozones that are north of the commercial forest zone. 47 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections What are the likely directions of industrial activity in the boreal in the next 5-10 years? 2 Hydro expansion in eastern boreal Canada (especially Québec) and perhaps in central (Manitoba) northern boreal Canada (North West Territories) 2 Oil and gas expansion in Mackenzie Valley and further fragmentation in Alberta, northeastern 2 2 2 2 British Columbia, portions of Saskatchewan, and southeast and northern Yukon. Continued agricultural clearing along southern boreal fringe, especially in the Prairie Provinces. Possibility of significant agriculture expansion in the boreal in Alberta and British Columbia. Intensive logging of remaining areas of mature timber within the southern commercial forest zone. New logging areas opened up in northern boreal regions. Potential for new mines in the Boreal and Taiga Shield, especially in Québec, Ontario, Manitoba and Yukon. New diamond mines are also a potential. 48 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Solution Themes The themes that will likely drive solutions toward greater environmental and economic integration in boreal Canada include: Emerging Aboriginal leadership 2 Implementing First Nation-led land use planning; increased realization of resource entitlements; and legal actions. Market paradigm shifts 2 Taking actions to elevate national and international awareness of the boreal – These will include: market actions and forest certification, and; a focus on boreal characteristics that have national and international “resonance,” such as birds, woodland caribou, carbon storage, fresh water and wilderness. Emerging economies 2 Finding alternative economic generators – Incentives and removal of disincentives for tourism; use of alternative fibers and forest products; promoting education/research economies; 2 Improving energy policy and markets – Transition to hydrogen and renewables; more aggressive responses to climate change; widespread implementation of carbon trading. Government leadership 2 Implementing provincial government-led integrated land use planning; protected areas planning initiatives; planning for the desired future forest condition. 2 Committing to substantial boreal protected areas establishment by provincial and federal governments. 2 Improving information and availability of data – Timber and habitat inventories; monitoring of forest changes; cumulative impact research; company operations; product flows. 2 Improving forest policy and legislation – Enforcement of existing legislation such as the Fisheries Act; requirements to conduct environmental reviews of logging operations in relation to tenure allocation on Crown land; creating incentives and removing disincentives for certification; implementation of cumulative impact management as a legislative/policy requirement. 49 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Review Process A key principle of Global Forest Watch Canada is that transparency and accountability are essential for developing improved forest management. In the interest of promoting open, public, and transparent information policies, Global Forest Watch Canada products include a review process and publication of a summary of the major comments provided by the reviewers, including how these comments were addressed. The information compiled during the course of this paper underwent a review process involving Global Forest Watch Canada and external reviewers. The project consisted of extensive literature review of the ecology and economic use of boreal Canada, most of which was completed for an earlier draft of the paper, plus an analysis of the emerging issues and a viewpoint on future projections and solution themes. Fifteen people, consisting of 7 biologists/ecologists from academia, 3 consulting biologists/ecologists, 2 biologists/ecologists from conservation organizations, 2 conservationists, and 1 student reviewed the ecology and economic use portion of this paper. These earlier review comments were focused on content issues related mainly to the ecology of the boreal. As well, basic editorial comments were made. Changes were made to the earlier draft paper as a result of these comments. Ten people, from the conservation community, were invited to review the sections on emerging issues, future projections and solution themes. Six people responded. Comments included the provision of new information related to regional and main emerging issues and corrections to the existing information, the need to emphasize the importance of land-use planning, cumulative effects research, the and implementation of cumulative effects planning and management. These comments were incorporated into the revised document. 50 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Map Section Map Map 1. Map 2. Map 3. Map 4. Map 5. Map 6. Map 7a. Map 7b. Map 7c. Map 7d. Map 8a. Map 8b. Map 9. Title Large intact forest landscapes in boreal Canada Development Status of Boreal Watersheds Forest Fires 1980-1997 Forest Change 1990-2000, Boreal Plains Ecozone Forest Tenures Mines and Petroleum Activity in boreal Canada (Alberta Pacific FMA Case Study Area.) Energy subsurface dispositions for oil/gas, oilsands and coal within the AlPac FMA (Alberta Pacific FMA Case Study Area.) AlPac FMA in the context of Alberta’s oil and gas wells and large intact forest landscapes (Alberta Pacific FMA Case Study Area.) Landsat satellite image of oil sands mining operations north of Fort McMurray (Alberta Pacific FMA Case Study Area.) Landsat satellite image of recent clearcuts, recent fire scars, major roads, seismic/pipelines, wellsites (Abitibi-Consolidated [AC] Iroquois Falls Case Study Area.) Tenures and mills (Abitibi-Consolidated [AC] Iroquois Falls Case Study Area.) Tenures and mines Muskwa-Kechika Case Study Area 51 Page 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 52 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 53 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 54 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Map 7a. (Alberta Pacific FMA Case Study Area.) Energy subsurface dispositions for oil/gas, oilsands and coal within the AlPac FMA. 55 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Map 7b. (Alberta Pacific FMA Case Study Area.) AlPac FMA (red lines) in the context of Alberta’s oil and gas wells (pink dots) and large intact forest landscapes (green). 56 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Map 7c. (Alberta Pacific FMA Case Study Area.) Landsat satellite image of oil sands mining operations north of Fort McMurray. 57 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Map 7d. (Alberta Pacific FMA Case Study Area.) Landsat satellite image of recent clearcuts (white rectangles), recent fire scars (pink), major roads (thick white lines), seismic/pipelines (thin white lines), wellsites (small white rectangles). 58 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Map 8a. (Abitibi-Consolidated [AC] Iroquois Falls Case Study Area.) Tenures and mills. AC forest tenures are outlined in red, AC pulp/paper mills are yellow dots, AC sawmills are black triangles, and all other forest product mills are pink triangles. 59 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Map 8b. (Abitibi-Consolidated [AC] Iroquois Falls Case Study Area.) Tenures and mines. AC forest tenures are outlined in red, and mines are pink stars. 60 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Map 9. Muskwa-Kechika Case Study Area. 61 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Notes and References 1 Lee, P, D Akesenov, L Laestadius, R Noguerón, W Smith 2003. Canada’s large intact forest landscapes. Global Forest Watch Canada.Edmonton, Alberta. 84 pp. AND Aksenov, D and 10 other authors. 2002. Atlas of Russia’s Intact Forest Landscapes. Moscow. 185 pp. 2 Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island do not have true boreal forest. See: Ward, P.C., and W. Mawdsley. 2000. Fire management in the boreal forests of Canada. Pp. 66-84. (In: Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest. Ed. E.S. Kasischke, and B.J. Stocks. Springer, New York. 461 pp.) AND Rowe, J.S. 1972, Forest Regions of Canada. Department of the Environment. Canadian Forestry Service. Publication No. 1300. 3 Acharya, A. 1995. Plundering the Boreal Forests. World Watch, 8, no. 3, 20-29. 4 Closed forests are all lands with a forest cover of trees with their crowns interlocking and a canopy density of 40 percent or above. The boundary of 40 percent coverage is convenient because it can be estimated with ease when the coverage of trees is 40 percent the distance between two tree crowns equaling the mean radius of a tree crown. AND United Nations Environment Program. 2001. An assessment of the status of the world’s remaining closed forests. By: Singh, A., H. Shi, Z. Zhu, and T. Foresman. UNEP/DEWA/TR 01-2. Available at: (February 2004). 5 Bonan, G.B., F.S. Chapin, III and S.L. Thompson.1995. Boreal forest and tundra ecosystems as components of the climate system. Climatic Change 29: 145-167. 6 Acharya, A. , 1995. Plundering the Boreal Forests. World Watch, 8, no. 3, 20-29. 7 Canada’s Boreal Initiative. 2003. Aout Canada’s Boreal. Available at: http://www.borealcanada.ca/about_boreal_e.cfm (February 2004). 8 Lee, P, D Akesenov, L Laestadius, R Noguerón, W Smith 2003. Canada’s large intact forest landscapes. Global Forest Watch Canada.Edmonton, Alberta. 84 pp. 9 Elliott-Fisk, D. L., 1988. The Boreal Forest. Pp. 33-62, in: Barbour, M.G., and Billings, W.D. (editors), North American Terrestrial Vegetation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 434 pp. 10 Despite finer levels of classification, it is important to recognize the basic distinction between the boreal and taiga ecozones as the boreal ecozones have experienced the greatest human impact, and possesses the highest biodiversity (e.g., tree species, bird species, plant species). However, certain species, such as woodland caribou, are more abundant in the taiga vs. boreal. 11 Johnson, D., Kershaw, L., MacKinnon, A., Pojar, J., Goward, T., and Vitt, D.,1995. Plants of the Western Boreal Forest and Aspen Parkland. Lone Pine Publishing, Edmonton, AB., 392 pp. 12 This figure includes the Forest regions ‘Boreal-predominantly forest’ and ‘Boreal-forest and barren’ as listed on the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers “Compendium of Forestry Statistics,” Available at: http://nfdp.ccfm.org/framesinv_e.htm. Also referenced in: Smith, Wynet, and Peter Lee, eds. Canada’s Forests at a Crossroads: An Assessment in the Year 2000. 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Effects of beaver and moose on boreal forest landscapes. In: Landscape Ecology and Geographic Information Systems. Edited by R. Haines-Young, D. R. Green, and S. Cousins. Taylor and Francis, London and New York. Pp. 237 – 254. AND Ford, T. E. and R. J. Naiman. 1988. Alteration of carbon cycling by beaver: methane emission rates from boreal forest streams and rivers. Canadian Journal of Zoology 66: 529 – 533. AND Woo, M. K. and J. M. Waddington. 1990. Effects of beaver dams on subarctic wetland hydrology. Arctic 43(3): 223 – 230. AND Johnston, C. A., J. Pastor, and R. J. Naiman. 1993. Effects of beaver and moose on boreal forest landscapes. In: Landscape Ecology and Geographic Information Systems. Edited by R. Haines-Young, D. R. Green, and S. Cousins. Taylor and Francis, London and New York. Pp. 237 – 254. AND Rempel, R. S., K. F. Abraham, C. A. Adamopolous, P. K. Ross, T. R. Gadawski, S. Gabor, and W. R. Watt. 1992. 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Habitat selection by muskrats in experimental marshes undergoing succession. Canadian Journal of Zoology 72: 675 – 680. AND Gabor, T. S., H. R. Murkin, J. W. Ingram, R. T. Clay, and R. F. Maher. 1999. Beaver pond management assessment program (1993 – 1997): Final report. Unpublished report. Ducks Unlimited Canada, Oak Hammock Marsh, MB. 76 pp. AND Mauser, D. M., R. L. Jarvis, and D. S. Gilmer. 1994. Survival of radio-marked mallard ducklings in northeastern California. Journal of Wildlife Management 58: 82 – 87. AND Monda, M. J. and J. T. Ratti. 1988. Niche overlap and habitat use by sympatric duck broods in eastern Washington. Journal of Wildlife Management 52: 95 – 103. 27 Pojar, J., 1996. Environment and biogeography of the western Boreal Forest. The Forestry Chronicle, 72, no.1, 51-58. 28 Hanski, Ilkka. 1995. Biodiversity in boreal forests. TREE Vol. 10 No. 1. p 5-6. 29 Boyle, T.J.B. Biodiversity of Canadian forests: current status and future challenges. 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Sinauer Associates Inc., Sunderland, MA., 584 pp. AND Harris, L.D., 1988. The nature of cumulative impacts on biotic diversity of wetland vertebrates. Environmental Management 12, no. 5, 675-693. AND Saunders, D.A., Hobbs, R.J., and Margules, C.R., 1991. Biological consequences of ecosystem fragmentation: A review. Conservation Biology, 5, no. 1, 18-32. AND Meffe, G.K., Carroll, C.R., (and contributors), 1994. Principles of Conservation Biology. Sinauer Associates Inc., Sunderland, MA., 600 pp. AND Hunter, M.L., Jr., 1996. Fundamentals of Conservation Biology. Blackwell Science Inc., Cambridge, MA., 482 . pp 183 Timoney, K. 2003. The changing disturbance regime of the boreal forest of the Canadian Prairie Provicnes. Forestry Chronicle 79 (3):502-516. 184 Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 2002. Compendium of Canadian Forestry Statistics. Available at: http://nfdp.ccfm.org/frames2_e.htm (February 2004). 185 Kurtz, W.A. and M.J. Apps. 1995. An analysis of future carbon budgets of Canadian boreal forests. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 82: 321-331. AND Van Wagner, CE. 1988. The historical pattern of annual burned area in Canada. The Forestry Chronicle, June, 182-185. AND Johnson, E. A., K. Miyanishi, and J. M. H. Weir. 1998. Wildfires in the western Canadian boreal forest: landscape patterns and ecosystem management. J. Veg. Sci. 9:603-610. AND Schindler, David W. 1998. A dim future for boreal waters and landscapes. Bioscience Mar98, Vol. 48, No. 3, p157, 8 p. AND Weber, M.G. and B.J. Stocks. 1998. Fores fires in the boreal forests of Canada. In J.M. Moreno, Editor. Large Forest Fires. p. 215-233. Blackhuys Publishers, The Hague, Netherlands. 186 Podur, J., D. L. Martell, K. Knight. 2002. Statistical quality control analysis of forest fire activity in Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 32: 195-205. 187 Bergeron, S. Gauthier, V. Kafta, P. Lefort, and D. Lesieur. 2001. Natural fire frequency for the eastern Canadian boreal forest: consequences for sustainable forestry. Can. J. For. Res. 31: 384-391. 188 Flannigan, M., I. Campbell, M. Wotton, C. Carcaillet, P. Richard, and Y. Bergeron. 2001. Future fire in Canada’s boreal forest: paleoecology results and general circulation model – regional climate model simulations. Can. J. For. Res. 31: 854-864. 189 Ibid. 190 Kurtz, W.A. and M.J. Apps. 1995. An analysis of future carbon budgets of Canadian boreal forests. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 82: 321-331. 73 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 191 Honer, T.G., A. Bickerstaff. 1985. Canada’s forest area and wood volume balance 197701981: an appraisal of change under present levels of management. Information Report BC-X-272. Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forest Region, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. 192 Ibid. 193 Kurtz, W.A., M. Apps. 1999. A 70-year retrospective analysis of carbon fluxes in the Canadian forest sector. Ecological Applications 9 (2): 526-547. 194 Timoney, K. and P. Lee. 2002. Environmental management in Alberta, Canada: first world jurisdiction, third world analogue. J. Env Mangmnt 64: 387-405. 195 Thomas, Richard. 1998. The Final Frontier: Protecting landscapes and biological diversity within Alberta’s Boreal Forest Natural Region. Alberta Environmental Protection, Natural Resources Service, Recreation and Protected Areas Division. Protected Areas Report No. 13. 330 pp. 196 Natural resources Canada. 2003. Statistics on Natural resources: Statistics and Facts. Available at: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/statistics/factsheet.htm (March 2004). 197 Government of Canada. 1999. Competing realities: the boreal forest at risk: report of the sub-committee on boreal forest of the standing senate committee on agriculture and forestry. Senate Subcommittee on the Boreal Forest, Ottawa, ON. 77 pp. 198 Canadian Forest Service (CFS). 1998. The state of Canada’s forests: the people’s forests. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service. Ottawa, ON. 123 pp. 199 Thornton, W. 1998. Proceedings of the subcommittee on the boreal forest of the standing senate committee on agriculture and forestry. Issue 7: October 9. 200 Mining Watch Canada. 2001. The Boreal Below: Mining Issues and Activities in Canada’s Boreal Forest Region. Mining Watch Canada. Available at: http://www.miningwatch.ca/ (February 2004). 201 Government of Canada, 1991. The State of Canada’s Environment - 1991. Environment Canada, State of the Environment Reporting, Ottawa, ON., (27 chapters, paginated separately). 202 Urquizo, N., J. Bastedo, T. Brydges, H. Shear. 2000. Ecological Assessment of the Boreal Shield Ecozone. Environment Canada. Indicators and Assessment Office, Environmental Conservation Service. Environment Canada. Ottawa. 72 pp. 203 Smith, Wynet, and Peter Lee, eds. Canada’s Forests at a Crossroads: An Assessment in the Year 2000. World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch Canada. www.global forest watch.org. 114 pp. 204 Accessed forests are forests that are within one kilomter of a known access corridor. Access corridors are include roads, railines, trails, railways, pipelines, hydroelectric and telephone transmission lines, seismic lines, and known motorized backcountry routes. 61,423,000 hectares or 31 percent of the southern boreal has been accessed and 1,333,000 hectares or 1 percent of the northern boreal has been accessed. AND Smith. W., and P. Lee (editors). 2000. Canada’s Forests at a Crossroads: an assessment in the year 2000. A Global Forest Watch Canada Report. World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C. 114 p. 205 Hearndon, K.W., S.V. Milson, and W.C. Wilson. 1992. A report on the status of forest regeneration. Toronto. Queen’s Printer. AND Jackson, S.M., F. Pinto, J.R. Malcolm and E.R. Wilson. 2000. A comparison of pre-Europeon settlement (1857) and current (1981-1995) forest composition in entral Ontario. Can. J. For. Res. 30 (4): 605-612. 206 Canadian Geographic Enterprises, 1996. The Boreal Forest. National atlas of Canada (wall map). Natural Resources Canada/Canadian Geographic, Vanier, ON., (1:10,750,000 scale map with text). 207 Acharya, A, 1995. Plundering the Boreal Forests. World Watch, 8, no. 3, 20-29. 208 Smith, Wynet, and Peter Lee, eds. Canada’s Forests at a Crossroads: An Assessment in the Year 2000. World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch Canada. 114 pp Available at: http://www.globalforestwatch.org (February 2004). 209 Ibid. 210 Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 2001. National Forestry database Program: Silvaculture. Table 6.2. Available at: http://nfdp.ccfm.org/frames2_e.htm (February 2004). 211 Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 2001. National Forestry database Program: Silvaculture. Table 6.2. Available at: http://nfdp.ccfm.org/frames2_e.htm (February 2004). AND 74 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Lee, Peter. Boreal Canada: Ecology, threats, and strategic science and information needs for conservation planning and actions (unpublished paper, November 2001). 212 Herb Hammond. 2001. “Statistics from provinces that classify some logging as “not clearcutting” are misleading. In my experience, virtually all logging, particularly in the boreal forest is a variation of clearcutting. A good way to deal with this problem is to define what is a clearcut, and what is partial cutting. An important part of the definition of partial cutting is the requirement to leave “full cycle trees.” Pers. comm. 213 Schneider, R. 2001. Forest Management in Alberta: A Review. Available at: http://www.borealcentre.ca/reports/forestry/forestry.html (February 2004). 214 Smith, Wynet, and Peter Lee, eds. Canada’s Forests at a Crossroads: An Assessment in the Year 2000. World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch Canada. www.globalforest watch.org (February 2004). 114 pp. 215 Ibid. 216 Senate Subcommittee on the Boreal Forest. 2000. Competing Realities: The Boreal Forest At Risk. Ottawa. Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. Available at: http://www.parl.gc.ca/36/1/parlbus/commbus/senate/com-e/rep-e.htm (February 2004). 217 Government of Canada, 1991. The State of Canada’s Environment - 1991. Environment Canada, State of the Environment Reporting, Ottawa, ON., (27 chapters, paginated separately). AND Krotz, L., 1992. Canada Journal. La Crete, Alberta. Hungering for the Promised Land. Equinox, 11, no. 61, 103-111. 218 McCartney, D. H.. 1993. History of grazing research in the Aspen Parkland. Journal of Animal Science 73(4): 749 -763. 219 Smith, Wynet, and Peter Lee, eds. Canada’s Forests at a Crossroads: An Assessment in the Year 2000. World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch Canada. www.globalforest watch.org (February 2004). 114 pp. 220 Wiken, E. B., D. Gauthier, I. B. Marshall, K. Lawton, H. Hirvonen. 1996. A perspective on Canada’s ecosystems: An overview of the terrestrial and marine ecozones. Occasional paper no. 14, Canadian Council on Ecological Areas, Ottawa, ON. 95 pp. http://www.ccea.org/ (February 2004). 221 Thomas, Richard. 1998. The Final Frontier: Protecting landscapes and biological diversity within Alberta’s Boreal Forest Natural Region. Alberta Environmental Protection, Natural Resources Service, Recreation and Protected Areas Division. Protected Areas Report No. 13. 330 p. 222 Toma & Bouma Management Consultants. 1997. “The Pursuit of Quality!” A sustainable growth strategy for the Alberta Agri-Food sector. Industry Growth Study. Edmonton. 134 pp. 223 Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. 2001. Avalaible online at: http://www.capp.ca (February 2004). 224 Maclean’s – Canada’s Weekly Newsmagazine, June 11 2001. Energized. p. 16-20. 225 Ibid. 226 Pratt, Larry. 2001. Energy: Free Trade and the Price We Paid. Parkland Institute, University of Alberta. Edmonton. 40 pp. Available at: http://ualerta.ca/~parkland/research/studies/index.htm (March 2004). 227 Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. 2001. The Canadian oil and gas industry: industry profile. 228 Integ Intercontinental Engineering of Alberta Ltd., 1973. An Environmental Study of the Athabasca Tar Sands. Prepared for Alberta Environment, Edmonton, AB., 111 pp. 229 Bott, R.D., 1981. It’s boom time in Alberta. International Wildlife, 11, no. 2, 36-39. AND Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (AEUB), 1997. Alberta’s Reserves 1996 (Crude oil, oil sands, gas, natural gas liquids, sulphur). EUB Statistical Series 97-18, Calgary, AB. (Sections paginated separately). 230 Government of Canada. 1996. Boreal Shield Ecozone. Pages 5-1 to 5-30 In: The State of Canada’s Environment 1996. Environment Canada. Ottawa. Ontario. 231 Rudd, J.W., R. Harris, C.A. Kelly and R.E. Hecky. 1993. Are hydroelectric reservoirs significant sources of greenhouse gases? Ambio 22 (4):246-248. 232 Government of Canada. 1996. Boreal Shield Ecozone. Pages 5-1 to 5-30 In: The State of Canada’s Environment 1996. Environment Canada. Ottawa. Ontario. 75 Global Forest Watch Canada Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections 233 Newbury, R.W., G.K. McCullough, and R.E. Hecky. 1984. The Southern Indian Lake Impoundment and Churchill River Diversion. Can. J. Aquat. Sci. 41:548-557. 234 Schindler, D.W. 1998. Sustaining aquatic ecosystems in boreal regions. Conservation Ecology [online] 2(2): 18. Available at: http://www.consecol.org/vol2/iss2/art18 (February 2004). 235 Mitchell, P., and Prepas, E. (editors), 1990. Atlas of Alberta Lakes. The University of Alberta Press, Edmonton, AB., 675 pp. (Quote by J.M. Crosby.) 236 Northern River Basins Study (NRBS), no date. Key Findings and Recommendations. NRBS, Edmonton, AB., 8 pp. 237 Dr. D. Schindler. 2001. pers. comm. 238 Environment Canada and Fisheries and Oceans Canada. 1992. Federal Ecological Monitoring Program (FEMP). Lake Winnipeg, Churchill-Nelson River System, Volume 2. AND EIP (Environmental Information Partnership). 1997. Synthesis report of the information contained within the socio-economic catalogue pertaining to the Moose River Basin with special reference to the aquatic environment. EIP Study Office, Ontario Government Complex, Timmins, Ontario. 173 pp. 239 Mining Watch Canada. 2001. The Boreal Below: Mining Issues and Activities in Canada’s Boreal Forest Region. Mining Watch Canada. Available at: http://www.miningwatch.ca/ (February 2004). 240 Greenwell, Brock. 2000. General Review. Canadian Minerals Yearbook, 1999 Review and Outlook, Natural Resources Canada - Minerals and Metals Sector. Page 1.5 241 Urquizo, N., J. Bastedo, T. Brydges, H. Shear. 2000. Ecological Assessment of the Boreal Shield Ecozone. Environment Canada. Indicators and Assessment Office, Environmental Conservation Service. Environment Canada. Ottawa. 72 pp. 242 SERM (Saskatchewan Environment and Resource Management). 1999. Saskatchewan’s State of Environment Report 1999 – The Boreal Shield Ecozone. Regina, Saskatchewan. 243 Environmental Mining Council of B.C. Mining in Remote Areas: Issues and Impacts. Produced for MiningWatch Canada. May 2001. 244 Government of Canada. 1996. Boreal Shield Ecozone. Pages 5-1 to 5-30 In: The State of Canada’s Environment 1996. Environment Canada. Ottawa. Ontario. 245 World Travel and Tourism Council. 2002. Summary Report to Sustainable Development Coordinated Council: Government Response to the AEDA Tourism Report “Preparing for Alberta’s Tourism Future.” 246 Canadian Tourism Commission and Statistics Canada. 2001. Canadian Tourism Facts and Figures, 2001 Brochure. Ottawa: Canadian Tourism Commission and Statistics Canada. 247 Worbets, B and Loleen Berdahl. August 2003. Western Canada’s Natural Capital: Toward a New Public Policy Framework. Available at: http://www.cwf.ca/ (February 2004). 248 Alberta Economic Development Authority. 2000. Preparing for Alberta’s Tourism Future. Edmonton: Government of Alberta. 249 Royal Bank of Canada Financial Group. July 2003. Troubled times still ahead for Canada’s tourism industry. Available at: http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/tourism.pdf (February 2004). 250 Alberta Community Development. 2001. 2000 Alberta Recreation Survey: Summary of Results. Edmonton: Government of Alberta. 251 Dobson, Stephen and John Thompson. 1996. “Parks and Protected Areas: Their Contribution to the Alberta Economy: A Discussion Paper.” Edmonton: Strategic and Regional Services Division: Alberta Environmental Protection. 252 Ontario Wildlands League. Fact Sheet #8 Nurturing Diversity Through Ecotourism. Toronto. Available at: http://www.wildlandsleague.org/ (February 2004). 253 Ministry of Culture, Tourism & Rec. 1994. Ontario’s Tourism Industry. AND Wanlin, et al. 1994. Forest Based Eco-tourism. Ministry of Natural Resources. 254 Ontario Wildlands League. Fact Sheet #2 Setting Your Sights on Ecotourism. Toronto. Available at: http://www.wildlandsleague.org/ (February 2004). AND Federation of Ontario Naturalists. “End of the Road.” Seasons. Fall 1997. 76 Global Forest Watch Canada 255 Boreal Canada: State of the Ecosystem, State of Industry, Emerging Issues, and Projections Schutt, A. 1996. The Bruce Trail: User and economic impact study. 256 Ontario Wildlands League. Fact Sheet #1: Profiting from Parks. Toronto. Available at: http://www.wildlandsleague.org/ (February 2004). 257 Ibid. 258 Canadian Environmental Grantmakers’ Network. 2003. Forest Conservation in Canada: A Summary of Issues and Opportunities. Draft. Toronto. 12 pp. 259 “Value added by industry measures the additional value created by a production process. This additional value, created by factors of production such as labour and capital, may be calculated either before or after deducting the consumption of fixed capital used in production. Thus, gross value added by industry is the value of its output of goods and services less the value of its intermediate consumption of goods and services and net value added as the value of output less the values of both intermediate consumption and consumption of fixed capital.” Lal, Kishori. 1999. Value Added by Industry - A Problem of International Comparison. Statistics Canada. Available at: http://www.statcan.ca/english/IPS/Data/13F0031MIE2000002.htm#abstract (March 2004). 260 Wilson, B, T Takahasti, I Vertinsky. 2001. The Canadian commercial forestry perspective on certification: National survey results. The Forestry Chronicle No.2 (77): 309-313. 261 Ibid. 262 Canadian Boreal Initiative. 2003. Boreal Framework Agreement. Available at: http://www.borealcanada.ca/news_archive/news_archive8_e.cfm (March 2004). 263 Senate Subcommittee on the Boreal Forest. 1999. Competing Realities: The Boreal Forest at Risk. Report of the Sub-Committee on Boreal Forest of the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. Available at: http://www.parl.gc.ca/36/1/parlbus/commbus/senate/com-e/bore-e/rep-e/rep09jun99-e.htm (February 2004). 264 Canada Boreal Initiative. 2003. The Boreal Forest at Risk: A Progress Report. Ottawa. Available at: http://www.borealcanada.ca/reports/boreal_at_risk/index_e.cfm (February 2004). 265 Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development. 1998 Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development (Ottawa: Office of the Auditor General, 1999), Section 2.33. Online at: http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/domino/reports.nsf/html/ c802ce.html (February 2004). 266 Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries Inc. 2004. Forest Stewardship report – section 5. Available at: http://www.alpac.ca/ (March 2004). 267 Schneider R., J.B. Stelfox, S. Boutin, and S. Wasel. 2003. Managing the cumulative impacts of land uses in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin: a modelling approach. Conservation Ecology 7(1):8-19. Available at: http://www.consecol.org/vol7/iss1/art8 (March 2004). 268 Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries Inc. 2004. Forest Stewardship report – section 5. Available at: http://www.alpac.ca/ (March 2004). 269 Alberta Economic Development. 2001. Tourism in Alberta North: A Summary of Visitor numbers, Revenue, and Characteristics - 2001. 5 pp. Available at: http://www.albertacanada.com/statpub/pdf/AB_North01.pdf (March 2004). 270 Abitibi-Consolidated. 2004. Ontario east Woodlands – Sustainable Forest Management. Available at: http://www.abitibiconsolidated.com/aciwebsitev3.nsf/site/en/forest/certification/iroquois_falls.html (March 2004). 271 Abitibi-Consolidated. 2004. Iroquois Falls. Available at: http://www.abitibiconsolidated.com/aciwebsitev3.nsf/site/en/papers/newsprint/iroquois_falls.html (March 2004). 272 Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management. 2004. Fort Nelson Land and Resource Management Plan. Available at: http://srmwww.gov.bc.ca/rmd/lrmp/frtnelsn/sec3.htm#3.2.1 (March 2004). 77