Download Appendix D: Additional figures showing potential climate change

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Appendix D: Additional figures showing potential climate change impacts on frequency, severity and
duration of meteorological (total annual rainfall) and hydrological (total annual streamflow)
droughts in six representative catchments across South Africa under five regionally downscaled
climate models
The climate models used include: i) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model, version
2.0 (GFDL-CM2.0); ii) the GFDL-CM2.1; iii) the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology ECHAM5/MPIOcean coupled climate model; iv) the United Kingdom Met Office, Hadley Centre coupled model,
version 3 (UKMO-HadCM3); and v) the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, medium
resolution (MIROC3.2-medres). All models are based on the SRES A2 scenario for the IPCC 4th
Assessment Report (AR4) and have been dynamically downscaled using the CCAM model (CSIR)
(Engelbrecht et al, 2011) and further downscaled to produce daily rainfall and streamflow timeseries
using the ACRU model at quinary catchment scale (See Appendix A).
The six selected catchments, shown below, are representative of six general hydro-climate zones.
Representative catchments for six hydroclimatic zones in South Africa.
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Figure D1: Climate change impacts on meteorological droughts (annual rainfall) for six representative catchments: GF0 model (SRES A2)
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Figure D2: Climate change impacts on hydrological droughts (cumulative streamflow) for six representative catchments: GF0 model (SRES A2)
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Figure D3: Climate change impacts on meteorological droughts (annual rainfall) for six representative catchments: GF1 model (SRES A2)
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Figure D4: Climate change impacts on hydrological droughts (cumulative streamflow) for six representative catchments: GF1 model (SRES A2)
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Figure D5: Climate change impacts on meteorological droughts (annual rainfall) for six representative catchments: MIR model (SRES A2)
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Figure D6: Climate change impacts on hydrological droughts (cumulative streamflow) for six representative catchments: MIR model (SRES A2)
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Figure D7: Climate change impacts on meteorological droughts (annual rainfall) for six representative catchments: MPI model (SRES A2)
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Figure D8: Climate change impacts on hydrological droughts (cumulative streamflow) for six representative catchments: MPI model (SRES A2)
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Figure D9: Climate change impacts on hydrological droughts (cumulative streamflow) for six representative catchments: UKM model (SRES A2)
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Figure D10: Climate change impacts on hydrological droughts (cumulative streamflow) for six representative catchments: UKM model (SRES A2
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