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Northern Sparsely Populated Areas
This series offers analysis and policy guidance to national and subnational governments seeking to strengthen
territorial development policies and governance. These reviews are part of a larger body of OECD work
on regional development that addresses the territorial dimension of a range of policy challenges, including
governance, innovation, urban development and rural policy. This work includes both thematic reports
and reports on specific countries or regions.
The northern sparsely populated areas (NSPA) of Finland, Norway and Sweden are becoming increasingly
important to the geopolitical and economic interests of these countries and the European Union. These regions
have unique geographical characteristics – low population density and a harsh climate – and face specific
challenges due to an ageing population, long distances from markets, and high-cost land transport. However,
high productivity growth is possible in low-density regions. This report sets out policy recommendations
at cross-border, national and regional scales to enhance prosperity and well-being across the NSPA.
This includes closer co-operation with national governments to address shared challenges and opportunities
such as improving east-west transport connections and reducing occupational and skills barriers to labour
mobility, and addressing barriers to business growth such as access to finance.
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OECD Territorial Reviews
Northern Sparsely Populated
Areas
Västerbotten, Sweden
Northern Sparsely Populated Areas
Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264268234-en.
OECD Territorial Reviews
OECD Territorial Reviews
II. REGIONS IN NORTHERN SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS: 14 CASE STUDIES – 285
Västerbotten, Sweden (northern sparsely populated area)
The purpose of this case study is to provide recommendations for Västerbotten County to
enhance productivity, growth and service delivery outcomes within the context of the
NSPA collaboration. The case study begins by outlining the assessment and
recommendations. An overview of the region is then provided, followed by an analysis of
regional economic performance. The case study concludes with an assessment of key
assets/opportunities and bottlenecks/risks facing the region.
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Assessment and recommendations
Västerbotten County is located in northern Sweden and shares a border with Norrbotten,
Västernorrland, Jämtland Härjedalen, and Norway (Nordland). GDP per capita in 2012 for
Västerbotten was USD 36 975 which was 85.7% of the national average and slightly higher than
the OECD average of USD 35 812 and lower than the NSPA average of USD 37 205. Over the
period 1995-2012, there was a slight increase in the gap in GDP per capita between Västerbotten
and the national average from -10.7% to -12.1%. Economic growth was relatively strong.
Between 1999 and 2012, GDP growth averaged 2.1%, which was the same for Sweden as a
whole. In this period, growth in labour productivity, and to a lesser extent the employment rate,
were key drivers of economic performance. Västerbotten’s rate of productivity growth 19992012 was 1.3% on average, which was 0.22% higher than the national rate for this period.
However, it was below both Västernorrland (1.6%) and Norrbotten (1.7%). In terms of
employment growth, Västerbotten’s performance was above the national average (+0.19%).
Over this period, there was only marginal growth in the population and the activity rate.
The absolute advantages of the region lie in its mineral endowments and forestry resources;
a history and tradition of manufacturing, and services linked to these natural resource-based
industries; its attractive landscapes; proximity to Norrbotten and Lapland; and the research and
innovation infrastructure based around Umeå University. The region experienced strong growth
prior to the crisis which was driven by increasing productivity linked to the mining and
manufacturing sectors. The recovery post-crisis has also been relatively strong, particularly in
terms of the labour market. The region is fairly well positioned for future growth because it has a
favourable demographic profile, a skilled workforce and a relatively diverse economy. However,
this growth is still dependent upon public investment. A future growth strategy for the region
will need to focus on the tradeable sector and on how the region’s innovation assets and services
sector can be utilised to drive further productivity and diversification related to its traditional
strengths in mining, forestry and related processing. In this sense, the key for Västerbotten is
focusing on how to strengthen rural-based industries and enhance urban-rural linkages rather
than just focusing on the urban area of Umeå as the key economic engine of the region.
The specific policy recommendations to help address these challenges and realise future
opportunities are outlined below.
1. Ensuring the region’s smart specialisation strategy links effectively to existing
businesses within the region. Currently, there is a focus on leveraging the research
base of the university and attracting new high technology investment to the region.
These strategies are important but need to be balanced with the existing economic
structure of the region, in particular rural based industries. The region can deliver a
stronger smart specialisation strategy by:
a. prioritising business development, value adding and innovation efforts for rural
based industries, which are linked to core competitive strengths connected with
forestry, mining, and tourism (e.g. digitalisation for small tourism firms)
b. improving connections for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the
supplier industry for mining and forestry to innovation and business networks at
a national and international scale to identify new market and R&D opportunit ies
c. better co-ordinating the region’s tourism strategy with the marketing and
development efforts of other counties in northern Sweden.
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Assessment and recommendations (continued)
2. Proactively work with rural communities affected by low skills and workforce
disengagement, and address skills gaps. In the context of an ageing population, the
region needs to maximise the value of its potential workforce and better link young
people and those living in rural areas to job opportunities. There is also a potential for
the region to become a world leader in the provision of e-government in a rural context.
The region can do this by:
a.
extending the e-government initiative into other areas of public service delivery and
administration (beyond health and social care), and strengthening pathways for
businesses to develop new markets around health, education and service
applications
b. increasing the flexibility of delivery models for vocational education, and build
stronger linkages between education and skills providers and businesses to address
skills mismatches within the region
c.
working proactively with the national government to address skills gaps in the
provision of public services (e.g. emergency accommodation, health and social
care), which are experiencing increased demand and are affected by an ageing
workforce
d. developing targeted place-based initiatives to lift skills and employment outcomes
for young people, and provide support for young entrepreneurs.
3. Improve transport infrastructure for the tradeable sector (forestry, mining,
processing, and tourism-related services), and enhance urban-rural linkages.
Policy makers in the region need to clarify the region’s economic development strategy
and better link it with priorities for investment in transport and the spatial planning
framework. Future challenges related to access can be addressed by:
a.
better integrating the objectives and priorities of the region’s smart specialisation
strategy with the region’s transport plan and spatial planning framework,
particularly for rural based industries
b. ensuring there is an agreed strategy at a regional level for accommodating future
population and employment growth for the city of Umeå, including options to
facilitate the clustering of higher value business and professional services, and
better connecting and accommodating growth in surrounding rural areas
c.
prioritising public transport initiatives which enhance commuting options between
rural areas and the urban centres of Umeå and Skellefteå.
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Snapshot
Västerbotten: Location within the NSPA
Note: Territorial level 3 (TL3) consists of micro regions within each OECD country. TL2 consists of macroregions within each OECD country. Each member country has identified the statistical or administrative
geography that provides the best fit for its territorial classification.
Source: Authors’ own elaboration.
The region of Västerbotten was home to 263 378 people in 2015, which was 2.7% of
the Swedish population. It has a land area of 54 672 square kilometres, which is close to
the size of Croatia. Västerbotten has a population density of 4.8 inhabitants per square
kilometre compared to the national figure of 24.2. In the 10 years to 2015, the population
grew at an average annual rate of 0.22% compared to the national average of 0.85%. In
the post-war period, the rate of population growth was comparatively high within the
NSPA. It is the only region in the north that has experienced a long-term trend of positive
population growth (+28 931 since 1968). There continues to be outmigration from rural
areas within the region and most of the growth is concentrated in the city of Umeå.
Umeå is the administrative centre of the region and is the largest urban centre with a
population of 120 777, which is 46% of the region’s population. Umeå has been growing faster
than the balance of the region. In the 10 years to 2015, the population of Umeå grew at a rate of
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0.87% (slightly above the national average of 0.85%) compared to -0.30% for the balance of the
region.
Historically, the backbone of the regional economy has been mining, forestry and
energy. Umeå was first settled in the 14th century before becoming the seat of County
Västerbotten in 1638. The city emerged as a port to trade timber from the interior and also
goods from Lapland. A number of rivers in the region have been extensively used for
hydroelectricity since the early 20th century, which has also been important for the
growth and development of manufacturing and the minerals processing industry. The
main exports from the region today are timber, wood products and pulp and paper
products, machinery and other manufactured goods, and minerals. The region has a large
mining industry which includes the extraction and processing of gold, copper and zinc.
The region is located in the north of Sweden on the Gulf of Bothnia and borders the
counties of Norrbotten to the north, and Västernorrland to the south. It shares a land
border with the County of Nordland in Norway, and is close to Finland (about 70 km
across the Gulf of Bothnia). Historically, there have been close relationships with
Österbotten region in Finland (which has a Swedish speaking minority and is situated
immediately across the Gulf of Bothnia). The region has a hilly terrain characterised by
river valleys and mainly covered by forests, with higher mountains close to the
Norwegian border. As with other regions in northern Sweden, the land is also shaped by
rivers and lakes, with the most fertile soil located in the river valleys.
Västerbotten is relatively well connected within Sweden. The major road links are the
north-south E4 which links the region to Stockholm, and north to Luleå and the Finnish
border, the north-south E45 through the interior of the region, and the E12 which
connects through to Mo I Rana in Norway. There is also passenger railway linking Umeå
to Sundsvall and Stockholm on the Bothnia Line, north toward Luleå and Narvik, and
west toward Lycksele. However, the railway does not provide the fast speeds or reliability
of the system in the south of the country. Umeå and Skellefteå airports both offer one
hour flights to Stockholm and there are a number of small airports with connections to
Stockholm in the interior. There is a ferry which connects Umeå and the Finnish city of
Vaasa that provides an important east-west transport link.
The population size of municipalities is relatively small in Västerbotten compared to
other NSPA regions, particularly in the rural areas in the interior. There are 15
municipalities within Västerbotten which range in population size from 120 777 people in
Umeå to 2 453 people in Bjurholm (the smallest municipality in Sweden). Twelve of the
15 municipalities in the region have a population less than 10 000 people. The Regional
Development Strategy (RDS) for Västerbotten County is framed around the Europe 2020
goals and aims to create the conditions for sustainable population and economic growth
for the region (Region Västerbotten 2014). It is organised around the following six
integrated themes:

communities that include and develop their residents (focus on including
communities in strategies to develop leisure, culture and amenities)

structures for innovation (building an innovation system for the region involving
businesses, universities, and venture capital)

environmentally-driven development (renewable energy and energy efficiency)

investments in education and skills (secondary school and tertiary attainment, and
workforce participation)
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
location-based business development (increasing value added from the region’s
natural resources, and internationalising SMEs)

an accessible and outward-looking region (transport and digital connectivity).
Economic analysis and benchmarking
GDP per capita for Västerbotten in 2012 was USD 36 975, which was 85.7% of the
national average, slightly higher than the OECD average of USD 35 812, and lower than
the NSPA average of USD 37 205. It is the second lowest GDP per capita compared with
the four northern counties of Jämtland Härjedalen (USD 35 160), Västernorrland (USD
38 888), and Norrbotten (USD 44 826). Over the period 1995-2012, there was a widening
of the gap in GDP per capita between Västerbotten and the national average. In 1995,
Västerbotten had a GDP per capita 10.7% below the national average, and in 2012 it was
12.1% below the national average. Growth in GDP per capita began to decline prior to the
crisis and has stagnated since that time.
GDP per capita trend, 1995-2012
Västerbotten
Sweden
OECD
NSPA
45 000
43 000
41 000
39 000
37 000
35 000
33 000
31 000
29 000
27 000
25 000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: GDP per capita is expressed in constant PPP, USD 2010 (System of National Accounts 2008). NSPA average not
available before 1997.
Source: OECD (2016a), “Regional economy”, OECD Regional Statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/6b288ab8-en
(accessed 14 December 2016).
Between 1999 and 2012, GDP growth averaged 2.1%, which is the same as for
Sweden as a whole. In this period, growth in labour productivity, and to a lesser extent
the employment rate, were key drivers of economic performance. Västerbotten’s rate of
productivity growth 1999- 2012 was 1.3% on average which was 0.22% higher than the
national rate for this period. However, it was below both Västernorrland (1.6%) and
Norrbotten (1.7%). In terms of employment growth, Västerbotten’s performance was
above the national average in the period 1999-2012 (+0.19%). Over this period, there was
only marginal growth in the population and the activity rate.
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GDP growth decomposition, 1999-2012
GDP growth
Productivity growth
ER growth
AR growth
Population growth
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
1999-2012
1999-2008
2008-2012
Note: Growth rates refer to average yearly growth rates over the periods indicated. Productivity is measured as
GDP in constant PPP divided by employment at place of residence (15 years and older); Employment rate (ER) is
measured as employment at place of residence (15 years and older) divided by population aged 15-64; Activity
rate (AR) is measured as population aged 15-64 divided by total population.
Source: Calculations based on OECD (2016b), OECD Regional Statistics (database),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/region-data-en (accessed 14 December 2016).
As outlined above, the key driver of growth for the region has been productivity,
which is apparent in comparison to the national average. The most significant difference
(relative to the national average) in the post-crisis period has been the decline of the
population and the activity rate, and the increase in the employment rate. This indicates
there has been a recovery in the jobs market post-crisis whilst the total size of the labour
force relative to the population continues to decline.
GDP growth decomposition with respect to national averages
1999-2012 (%)
1999-2008 (%)
2007-2018 (%)
GDP growth
-0.04
-0.07
0.04
Productivity growth
0.22
-0.01
0.73
Employment rate growth
0.19
0.31
-0.08
Activity rate growth
0.06
0.08
0.00
Population growth
-0.50
-0.45
-0.60
Note: Growth rates refer to the difference between regional growth rates and national growth rates. For
further details, see Annex.
Source: Calculations based on OECD (2016b), OECD Regional Statistics (database),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/region-data-en (accessed 14 December 2016).
In the section below, we summarise the key factors of growth contributing to these
growth trends compared to national and OECD averages.
The region has been a relatively strong productivity performer and the gap
between the region and the country level has only increased slightly. In 2012, the
labour productivity of the region was USD 77 511 which is 10.4% below the average of
TL3 regions in Sweden of USD 86 522 and 6.6% below the NSPA average of
USD 82 978. The difference with the national level is reflected in both the market and
non-market sectors. Levels of labour productivity are slightly higher than
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Jämtland Härjedalen (USD 76 534), and lower than the mining and heavy industry
regions of Västernorrland (USD 82 968), and Norrbotten (USD 93 642). The national
productivity gap between Västerbotten and the national average has decreased slightly
from 11.1% in 2000.
Labour productivity trend, 2000-12
Västerbotten
Sweden
NSPA
95 000
85 000
75 000
65 000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: Labour productivity is measured as GDP in constant PPP, USD 2010, divided by employment at place of
work (System of National Accounts 2008).
Source: Calculations based on OECD (2016b), OECD Regional Statistics (database),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/region-data-en (accessed 14 December 2016).
Labour productivity, market vs non-market sector, 2000-12
Västerbotten (non-market)
Finland (non-market)
Västerbotten (market)
Finland (market)
95 000
85 000
75 000
65 000
55 000
45 000
35 000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: Labour productivity is measured as gross value added (GVA) in constant PPP, USD 2010, divided by
employment at place of work (System of National Accounts 2008). The non-market sector includes public
administration and defence, compulsory social security, health and education. The market sector includes all
other economic activities.
Source: Calculations based on OECD (2016b), OECD Regional Statistics (database),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/region-data-en (accessed 14 December 2016).
Västerbotten is specialised in mining, energy production and forestry. Relative to
other NSPA regions, Västerbotten has also developed strengths in relation to business
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services (professional, scientific and IT), and manufacturing. Although Västerbotten has a
strong natural resource base to its economy, it also has a number of large public institutions.
This includes three universities (Umeå University and campuses for the Swedish University
of Agricultural Sciences and Luleå Technical University), one university hospital in Umeå
and two hospitals in Skellefteå and Lycksele. Public sector activity is also important to the
region with close to 40% of the labour force employed in the public sector.
Specialisation index, by economic activity
Sweden
NSPA
GVA
Employment
GVA
Employment
Mining and quarrying, electricity and water supply (B,D,E)
2.5
1.7
1.3
1.3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A)
Public administration and defence, compulsory social security,
education and human health (O,P,Q)
Construction (F)
2.4
1.7
0.6
0.7
1.2
1.2
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.9
Other services (R,S,T,U)
1.1
0.8
1.2
0.9
Manufacturing ( C )
Whole sale and retail trade, transportation, accommodation and food
services (G, H, I)
Real estate (L)
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.8
1.1
0.9
0.7
1.0
0.7
1.5
Professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities (M, N)
0.7
0.7
1.2
1.0
Information and communication (J)
0.7
0.7
1.2
1.1
Financial and insurance activities (K)
0.5
0.4
1.0
0.7
Note: The specialisation index for each sector is the ratio between the sector weight in the regional gross value added
(GVA)/employment, and the weight of the same sector in the national (NSPA) GVA/employment. A value above 1 implies that
the region is more specialised in that sector than the rest of the economy. Calculations based on GVA for the year 2012,
expressed in constant PPP, USD 2010 (System of National Accounts 2008), and employment at place of work for the year 2012.
GVA specialisation indexes with respect to the NSPA are based on GVA for the year 2011, expressed in constant PPP,
USD 2005 (System of National Accounts 1993), due to lack of more updated data for Norwegian regions.
Source: Calculations based on OECD (2016b), OECD Regional Statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/region-data-en
(accessed 14 December 2016).
Share of employment in the public sector, 2000-12
Västerbotten
Share of population in public employment, 2000-12
Sweden
Västerbotten
45%
25%
40%
20%
35%
15%
30%
10%
25%
5%
20%
0%
Sweden
Note: The public sector includes public administration and defence, compulsory social security, health and education (sectors O,P,Q).
Source: OECD (2016b), OECD Regional Statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/region-data-en (accessed 14 December 2016).
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The big shifts in the structure of the regional economy have been the growth of
the mining and manufacturing sectors, and the increasing importance of services to
employment growth. The traditional mainstays of the regional economy – mining,
forestry and manufacturing, experienced strong growth in the period 2000-12. During the
same period, productivity in manufacturing increased with a significant rise in GVA
coupled with a slight decline in employment. A key feature of the region relative to other
rural regions, is the growth of higher value services (particularly professional and
scientific, and IT) connected with the university and hospital. As with other regions in
northern Sweden, the public sector has a key role in the economy. The economic structure
of Västerbotten is similar to Västernorrland with the manufacturing and business services
sectors playing an important role.
GVA by sector
2012
Employment by sector
2000
2012
2000
Public sector (O,P,Q)
Wholesale and retail trade,
transport, accommodation and food
services (G, H, I)
Manufacturing ( C )
Mining and quarrying, electricity
and water supply (B,D,E)
Professional, scientific, technical
and administrative activities (M, N)
Real estate (L)
Construction (F)
Information and communication (J)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A)
Other services (R,S,T,U)
Financial and insurance activities
(K)
0
500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
Note: Gross value added (GVA) is expressed in constant PPP, USD 2010 (million) (System of National Accounts
2008). Employment at place of work is expressed as number of persons (System of National Accounts 2008). It is
important to note the limitations in relation to this sectoral analysis in small regional economies where changes
may reflect the decisions of single firms. We have sought to overcome this by using a longer time period
encompassing the period before and after the 2009 financial crisis.
Source: Calculations based on OECD (2016a), “Regional economy”, OECD Regional Statistics (database),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/6b288ab8-en (accessed 14 December 2016).
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Tourism-related activity is growing but is not as important to the economy as for
other regions in Sweden. Västerbotten’s tourism attractions centre on its nature-based
activities related to its attractive lakes and river valleys: fishing, hunting, camping, hiking
and skiing. The region also has tourism activities related to the Sami culture. Over the last
decade, the region has put a greater priority on improving its tourism offers, including
improving linkages with Norrbotten.
Benchmarking Västerbotten's tourism performance
Västerbotten
Sweden
150
125
100
75
50
Guest nights/population
Foreign visitors
Guest night growth
Employment in hotels and Employment growth in
restaurants
hotels and restaurants
Hotel rooms occupancy
rate
Note: National values are set to 100. Regional values have been rescaled with respect to national values. Foreign visitors
is based on the share of nights spent by foreigners in the region in 2015. Guest night growth refers to the period 2008-15.
Employment in hotels and restaurants refers to the year 2014. Employment growth refers to the period 2008-14. The
occupancy rate of hotel rooms refers to the year 2015.
Source: Statistics Sweden (2016), Statistical database, www.scb.se (accessed 15 December 2016).
A key feature of Västerbotten has been its capacity to maintain population
growth and retain younger people and families in the region. Compared to the
national level, there has been a slower rate of population growth (0.22% for
Västerbotten compared with the national figure of 0.85% between 2005 and 2015).
This rate of growth is higher than the other northern regions of Norrbotten ( -0.08%),
Västernorrland (0.01%), and Jämtland Härjedalen (0.03%) over the same period. This
growth has concentrated in Umeå, which during this period had a growth rate of
0.97%, which is slightly higher than the national average. The population of
Västerbotten is more balanced in its age structure than the other northern counties.
The elderly dependency ratio is 32.39 compared to the national average of 31.09. The
sex ratio (males to females) is in Västerbotten is 101.76, which is higher than the
national (99.94), and NSPA (98.05) averages. It is similar to the other northern
counties of Region Jämtland Härjedalen (100.98), Norrbotten (103.6), and
Västerbotten (100.38). Overall, the role of Umeå as a key service centre in northern
Sweden has enabled the region to maintain its population growth and young people,
which is a key difference compared with its other northern neighbours.
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Population trend, 1990-2015
Västerbotten
Sweden
Elderly and youth dependency ratios, 1991-2015
Västerbotten EDR
Västerbotten YDR
NSPA
125
Sweden EDR
Sweden YDR
35
115
30
105
25
95
85
20
Note: 1990 value = 100. Population at 31 December.
Note: EDR = elderly dependency ration; YDR = youth
dependency ratio.
Source: Statistics Sweden (2016), Statistical database,
www.scb.se (accessed 15 December 2016).
Source: OECD (2016c), “Regional demography”,
OECD Regional Statistics (database),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/a8f15243-en
(accessed 14 December 2016).
Sex ratio (males/females), 1992-2014
Västerbotten
NSPA average
Sweden
OECD
102
100
98
96
94
Source: OECD (2016c), “Regional demography”, OECD Regional
Statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/a8f15243-en
(accessed 14 December 2016).
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Population growth is supported by international migration and natural
replacement. The region continues to experience outmigration to other regions in
Sweden. There was a sharp increase in domestic migration in the period 2001-05, which
has since returned to its previous levels with some recent improvements. In terms of
population, the key change has been the increase in international migration since 2006,
which is similar to the trend experienced in the other northern counties. The number of
migrants from outside of the European Union (EU) increased from 10 268 in 2006 to 16
631 in 2015 and it is likely that most of this increase is asylum seekers. The rapid rise in
numbers of refugees and asylum seekers since 2015 has been placing pressure on local
services and appropriate accommodation. Unlike the other northern counties,
Västerbotten has a positive replacement rate, which reflects its capacity to retain and
attract young people and families.
Decomposition of population trend, 2000-15
Net migration, internal
Net births
Migration as share of total population, 2000-15
Net migration, external
Population change
Net migration, domestic
Net migration, Sweden
2 500
1.5%
1 500
1.0%
500
0.5%
- 500
0.0%
- 1 500
-0.5%
- 2 500
-1.0%
Net migration, external
Source: Statistics Sweden (2016), Statistical database, www.scb.se (accessed 15 December 2016).
The labour market performance of the region has been strong and has
recovered well from the crisis. The employment rate in Västerbotten is 65.9%
compared with 66.2% for Sweden, and 67.3% for the OECD. The employment rate is
higher in Västerbotten than Norrbotten (62.4%) and Region Jämtland Härjedalen
(64.1%), and Västernorrland (64.8%). Before the crisis, the employment rate had
increased to a level which was the same as the national level and close to the OECD
average. During the crisis, there was a significant drop in the employment rate, which
was similar to the neighbouring county of Västernorrland. Since 2010, there has been
a recovery in the employment rate to a level which is close to the 2007 rate. The
unemployment rate in Västerbotten is 7.1%, which is lower than the national figure
(8%), and slightly higher than the OECD level of 7.3%. There has also been a sharp
rise in the rate of youth unemployment to a level which is following the national
trend.
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Employment rate, 2004-14
Västerbotten
Sweden
Unemployment rate, 2004-14
Västerbotten
OECD
Sweden
OECD
10%
80%
78%
9%
76%
74%
8%
72%
70%
7%
68%
66%
6%
64%
62%
5%
60%
4%
58%
Source: OECD (2016d), “Regional labour markets”, OECD Regional Statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/f7445d96-en
(accessed 14 December 2016).
Youth unemployment rate, 2005-15
Västerbotten
Sweden
28%
26%
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
Source: Tillväxtverket, (Swedish Agency for Economic and
Regional Growth) (2016), Regional utveckling,
https://tillvaxtverket.se/english.html
(accessed 10 December 2016).
A key feature for Västerbotten is the share of people with higher education. A
significant share of the population aged 15-64 in Västerbotten has a higher education, which
is also higher than the national average. The corresponding figures are higher for young adults
aged 20-24. This is a key difference between Västerbotten and its northern neighbours, and
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many other NSPA regions. The high level of education is due to the large universities and
hospital that are located in Umeå. However, there are large differences within the region in
terms of higher education attainment, with smaller rural municipalities having very low rates.
The share of young people with low skills has historically been at a very low level with an
increase, particularly for young men, since 2009/10, which is a concern when coupled with
the youth unemployment figures. This trend is similar to other regions in northern
Sweden.
Share of population 15-64 with lower education,
2000-15
Västerbotten - M
Sweden - M
Share of population 15-64 with higher education,
2000-15
Västerbotten - F
Sweden - F
Västerbotten - M
Sweden - M
35%
45%
30%
40%
25%
35%
20%
30%
15%
25%
10%
20%
5%
15%
Share of population 20-24 with lower education,
2000-15
Västerbotten - M
Sweden - M
Västerbotten - F
Sweden - F
Share of population 20-24 with higher education,
2000-15
Västerbotten - F
Sweden - F
Västerbotten - M
Sweden - M
30%
45%
25%
40%
20%
35%
15%
30%
10%
25%
5%
20%
0%
15%
Västerbotten - F
Sweden - F
Note: Lower education refers to the categories “primary and secondary education less than 9 years (ISCED97 1)” and
“primary and secondary education 9-10 years (ISCED97 2)”. Higher education refers to the categories “post-secondary
education, less than 3 years (ISCED97 4+5B)”, “post-secondary education 3 years or more (ISCED97 5A)” and “postgraduate education (ISCED97 6)”.
Source: Statistics Sweden (2016), Statistical database, www.scb.se (accessed 15 December 2016).
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Västerbotten is a remote and low density region with urban centres that are wellconnected and high quality broadband coverage in rural areas. Västerbotten has three main
transport corridors. The first is the E4 along the Bothnian corridor. This links to the two major
urban areas in the region, Umeå and Skellefteå, and this journey takes around 90 minutes via car
and 2 hours via bus. This is an advantage because this proximity enables some level of labour
market interaction, and also facilitates access to services. Further north, it takes about 3 hours to
reach Luleå, which is a reasonable distance for business and tourism-related interactions. There
is currently one train per day which links Umeå to Luleå (bypassing Skellefteå) which takes 4.5
hours. Västerbotten is a geographically vast region; it takes approximately 6 hours via car from
the coast to cross the border to Mo I Rana in Norway via the E12 which is the main east-west
connection. The third transport corridor is the north-south E45 which connects through to
Östersund. The fourth transport corridor is the ferry connecting the E12 from Umeå to Vaasa in
Finland (taking approximately 4 hours). Umeå Airport also has regular 1-hour flights to
Stockholm and a flight service to Helsinki. During the summer, there are charter flights to a
number of European destinations. There are a number of other airports in the interior of the
region with direct flights to other destinations in Sweden including Gothenburg and Östersund,
and also Helsinki. When benchmarking against key infrastructure indicators, a key feature of
Västerbotten compared with the national average, is the quality of its communications
technology, particularly in rural areas of the region.
Benchmarking key infrastructure indicators
Västerbotten
Sweden
200
321
150
100
50
0
Road density to
population
Road density to area
National roads
Municipal roads
Private roads
100 Mbps urban
100 Mbps rural
Note: Regional values have been rescaled with respect to national values. National values are set to 100. Road
density to population and to area refer are calculated as road in square kilometres divided by total regional
population (2010). The shares of national, municipal and private roads are based on road length in kilometres
(2010). 100 Mbps refers to the share of household with access to at least 100Mbps internet in 2015.
Source: Statistics Sweden (2016), Statistical database, www.scb.se (accessed 15 December 2016).
Levels of innovation and entrepreneurship are relatively high compared to other
northern counties and the NSPA. Levels of innovation (in terms of patents at 155.23
per million inhabitants) are relatively high compared to the NSPA (142.02). It is higher
than Jämtland Härjedalen (31.57) but lower than Västernorrland (169.31), and Norrbotten
(199.63). The level of performance in relation to new enterprises is impressive, exceeds
the national level, and is also out-performing the other northern counties. Although the
region has a larger proportion of people with a higher education than the national level,
employment in high-skilled occupations is lower. This indicates the relative lack of a
critical mass of high skilled and higher wage jobs in the private sector within the region.
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Share of employment in high-skilled occupations,
2001-13
Patent applications per million inhabitants, 2011
350
Västerbotten
Sweden
47%
300
45%
250
43%
200
41%
150
39%
100
37%
50
35%
0
Västerbotten
Sweden
NSPA
Source: OECD (2016e), “Regional innovation”, OECD Regional
Statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/1c89e05a-en
(accessed 14 December 2016).
Note: High-skilled occupation includes the three highest
occupational categories according to the ISCO classification:
mangers; professionals; technicians and associate professionals.
These are occupations that require tertiary education.
Source: Statistics Sweden (2016), Statistical database,
www.scb.se (accessed 15 December 2016).
New enterprises, 1994-2015
Västerbotten
Sweden
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
Note: Except agriculture and public administration.1994 value = 100.
Source: Tillväxtanalys (2016), Statistikportalen,
http://statistikportalen.tillvaxtanalys.se/ (accessed 1 February 2017).
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In sum, improving the long-term economic performance will require improving
transport connectivity, and building on the innovation assets of the region.
Västerbotten’s growth dynamics are linked to its natural resource base (mining, energy and
forestry), and the role of the public sector through the university and hospital in Umeå. The
absolute advantages of the region lie in its mineral endowments and forestry resources, a
history and tradition of manufacturing and services linked to these natural resource based
industries, its attractive landscapes and proximity to Norrbotten and Lapland, and the research
and innovation infrastructure based around Umeå University and the Swedish University of
Agricultural Sciences. Relative to other remote rural regions in the OECD countries,
Västerbotten as with the other Swedish NSPA regions, has a high level of prosperity and wellbeing. However, this position to a considerable extent reflects ongoing support from the
Swedish national government that provides a high level of social services across all the
national territory. The region experienced strong growth prior to the crisis which was driven
by increasing productivity linked to the mining and manufacturing sectors. The recovery postcrisis has also been relatively strong, particularly in terms of the labour market. The region is
fairly well positioned for future growth because it has a favourable demographic profile, a
skilled workforce and a relatively diverse economy. However, this growth is still dependent
upon public investment. A future growth strategy for the region will need to focus on the
tradeable sector, and how the region’s innovation assets and services sector can be utilised to
drive further productivity and diversification related to its traditional strengths in mining,
forestry and related processing. In this sense, the key for Västerbotten is focusing on how to
strengthen rural based industries and enhance urban-rural linkages rather than just focusing on
the urban area of Umeå as the key economic engine of the region. Compared to the national
level and the other Swedish NSPA regions, Västerbotten is performing relatively well in
relation to key growth factors. An important asset for Västerbotten is the quality of its
telecommunications infrastructure, particularly in rural areas.
Benchmarking Västerbotten in relation to key growth factors
Västerbotten
Sweden
200
321
150
100
50
0
Higher education
Lower education
Patent intensity
Start-up intensity
High speed internet
Road density to
population
Road density to area
Note: A higher value for lower education means the region has a lower share of lower educated persons. Values
on for higher and lower education and high speed internet refer to the year 2015. Patents values refer to the year
2011. Start-up values refer to the year 2014. Road values refer to the year 2010.
Source: Statistics Sweden (2016), Statistical database, www.scb.se (accessed 15 December 2016) (education,
internet and road data); Tillväxtanalys (2016), Statistikportalen, http://statistikportalen.tillvaxtanalys.se/ (accessed
1 February 2017) (enterprise creation); OECD (2016b), OECD Regional Statistics (database),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/region-data-en (accessed 14 December 2016) (patents).
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Assessment of strengths and challenges
Despite relatively high levels of well-being, like its peer counties in Sweden and the
remainder of the NSPA region Västerbotten faces development challenges, particularly in
terms of providing economic opportunities for the local population. The economic
analysis and benchmarking in the previous section identified the importance of
diversifying the economy and reducing its dependence upon the public sector. The
following part of the case study provides an overview of the assets/growth opportunities
and bottlenecks/risks identified during the OECD mission to Västerbotten conducted in
February 2016.
Assets and growth opportunities
The population growth is concentrated in the two cities of Umeå and Skellefteå
and this presents opportunities to strengthen the economy of the region. About threequarters of the region’s population lives in Umeå, Vannas (30 minutes from Umeå), and
Skellefteå, whilst the remainder is distributed across the territory in smaller settlements.
This settlement structure is an asset for the region as it increases the size of functional
labour markets and reduces the costs of delivering services. Umeå is growing faster than
the national average, and provides an urban environment which is attractive to families
and younger people. The growth of these cities has enabled the region to develop a
diverse services sector. It will be important for municipalities to ensure infrastructure and
land-use policy settings facilitate a sufficient supply of housing in areas experiencing
population growth.
Västerbotten has a significant endowment of natural resources and has benefited
from favourable external conditions. The region has a long history of mining and
embedded assets in terms of local political support, skills, and technology. Over the past
decade growth has been supported by higher commodity prices and investment in
extractive industries. However, these external conditions are changing and the region may
be vulnerable to reduced production, investment and employment. The region has been
proactive in developing a strategic approach to lifting the competitiveness of the mining
industry and generating more value from it, and connections with the local universities
have been strengthened. As mining activity slows down the challenge for the region will
be developing new markets for local firms that provide mining related services (including
engineering, maintenance, and managing environmental impacts).
The region has a significant higher education presence which is an important
source of professional jobs, income from students, and research. Umeå University
and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences have research and teaching
specialisations in areas such as industrial design, fine arts, environmental engineering,
digital services, natural sciences, health and forestry. The public sector and the university
have invested in an innovation infrastructure including science parks and business
incubators, which is starting to provide a pay-off in terms of business start-ups. These
areas of specialisation have informed the county’s smart specialisation strategy. This
strategy is focused on the following sectoral areas: innovations in health care, life
sciences, technology and service in the industry testing, sustainable energy and
environmental engineering, the cultural and creative industries, and digital services. The
strategy also identifies the importance of promoting collaboration between these sectors
to facilitate new economic activities. A key advantage for the region is the opportunity to
link natural resource-based industries (food and agriculture, mining and forestry) with
high technology sectors (life sciences, testing, environmental engineering and digital
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services). Linking these rural and urban-based sectors should be a key focus of the
strategy going forwards.
Umeå Institute of Design: Umeå, Västerbotten
The Umeå Institute of Design was ranked as the best design school in the world in 2016, following several
years of being the best design school in Europe. The Institute focuses on industrial design, transportation design
and interaction design, and is part of Umeå University. Its strength is in working with companies to connect its
teaching and research programmes to professional design practice. The school emphasises making things as a
way to connect student ideas to production, and to facilitate this provides a wide range of state of the art
equipment for working with wood, metals, plastics, fibres and other materials. A particular strength is the
integration of computers and electronics into the design and manufacturing process.
Umeå is located at the north end of the Gulf of Bothnia, far from what might be conventionally considered
the design capitals of the world. Yet the Institute has been able to develop a global reputation for its work, and
attract students and collaborators from a considerable number of countries. While remote locations and small
cities are not typically seen as being innovative, the Umeå Institute of Design proves that with effort and good
ideas it is possible be as creative as design schools located in more traditional large city environments.
Västerbotten has been proactive at improving digital connectivity and has taken a
leadership role in the provision of tele-medicine. The region and municipalities have coinvested to improve broadband connectivity across the region, which has provided a platform
for innovation in service delivery. The municipalities and the county are promoting
e-government through a shared project, e-Västerbotten. It includes an inventory to identify areas
of potential collaboration, promoting new technologies and good practice, and creating common
technological platforms for the delivery of e-services. There has been a strong focus within the
region on tele-medicine to improve accessibility for rural communities to health care. Physical
services are concentrated in a small number of places (e.g. two medical centres for sparsely
populated areas in Storuman and Vilhelmina, and a number of smaller cottage hospitals), and
tele-medicine is utilised to deliver services to more remote communities which also enables
connection with experts in Umeå. Since the mid-1990s, close to 40 different health applications
and 230 videoconferencing facilities have been rolled out across the county. Within the health
services system this has resulted in increased efficiency, improved competencies amongst staff,
and reduced travel times. Umeå University has also developed a research and teaching
specialisation in this area, and established a centre Innovationssluss Västerbotten which
provides a mechanism to develop new health-related products and services, including ICT
solutions.
Centre of Rural Medicine: Storuman, Västerbotten
The Centre of Rural Medicine explores ways to use new approaches to deliver high quality health care at
reasonable cost. Northern Sweden is leading a common challenge for OECD countries – providing innovative
health care for an ageing population. A high ratio of older people was reached earlier in northern Sweden than in
most rural regions and led to earlier efforts to find ways to provide innovative health care solution in remote rural
places where access to hospitals is difficult. A key advantage is the high level of penetration of broadband
throughout all of Sweden that creates the opportunity for telemedicine. One focus is telemedicine, and virtual
health rooms are the most recent innovation. These are free-standing facilities that have some basic testing equipment
and a video-link to a regional hospital. At times the room is staffed but at other times people with health issues can
access help, including basic diagnostics directly. In small rural communities that are far from a health professional
virtual health rooms can be an important way to assure initial access. The Centre sees them as a part of a larger effort to
develop better health care in remote rural places by designing a variety of alternative delivery mechanisms.
Providing health care for an older and less mobile population is a challenge across the entire OECD, but it is
a more difficult proposition in remote rural areas where traditional health care options are either not available or
far more expensive to operate. Many countries are looking for new approaches but the Centre of Rural Medicine
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Centre of Rural Medicine: Storuman, Västerbotten (continued)
is an example of a well-designed strategy to identify new innovative ways to bring about good health care at a
reasonable cost. Because it is in a remote rural region and actually delivers health services it is well positioned to
see what works and doesn’t work quickly. And, because it is embedded in the rural community people are
willing to try new approaches and provide their opinion on how well they work.
Bottlenecks and risks
The growth of Umeå is key for the region, however, there is a risk of an
urban/rural disconnect. Umeå is growing strongly and is a key service and
administrative centre. However, much of the services sector employment in Umeå is
dependent on public funding of health, education and training, and public administration.
The economy of the region is still dependent on extracting value from natural resources,
and strengthening linkages between urban and rural areas. There is a risk that the region
has an “urban bias” in its policy and decision making, which may lead to reduced
investment in rural areas. The growth of Umeå also presents challenges including the
provision of housing and improving transport infrastructure and services to the
surrounding rural areas.
Although there is a strong research base in the region, it is not generating a
sufficient business and economic dividend. Umeå University was established in 1965
and has grown to become a significant player in the higher education market in Sweden.
It has also invested in research and has established a number of research centres.
However, there is still a level of disconnect between the structure of the regional
economy and the research profile of the university. Businesses in the region are not
effectively engaging with the university to drive innovation and develop new markets.
Challenges include better engaging local firms in research and development, and building
networks amongst firms particularly in dispersed rural areas.
Västerbotten has a range of nature-based experiences and there is capacity to
further leverage these assets. The key nature-based attractions of the region include
attractive lakes and river valleys, fishing and hunting, camping and hiking, and skiing.
These attractions are located in the sparsely populated parts of the region, and
maximising the value of them is important for the prosperity of rural communities. There
are also cultural experiences with the Sami community and for recreational and business
tourism in urban areas (Umeå was the European capital of culture in 2014). The region is
well-located being part of Swedish Lapland and bordering Norway, which provides
access to a larger market of consumers (and potential investors). Linkages with
Norrbotten and the broader Arctic region are improving but are not integrated with the
tourism planning of the region. Tourism planning is not effectively integrated with spatial
planning or the prioritisation of transport infrastructure and services.
Improved rail connections could have a transformative impact on the growth of
the region, and should be coupled with improvements to the public transport
network. Västerbotten, along with the neighbouring region of Västernorrland, has a
strong focus on attracting funds to improve rail infrastructure between urban centres
along the Bothnian corridor, and the interior. This will have the dual benefit of improving
accessibility for commuting and service-based industries (particularly between Umeå,
Skellefteå, and Luleå), and facilitating the more efficient movement of goods from rural
areas. These large scale investments will need to be coupled with improvements to the
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transport network in the region. For example, this includes how access to tourism
destinations could be improved through route and timetable changes within the public
transport network, and addressing rail bottlenecks and gaps to help facilitate the efficient
movement of bulk goods from road to rail for the mining and forestry sectors.
Skills, employment and entrepreneurial outcomes for young people are poor.
The region is experiencing an ageing population (albeit with a more favourable
demographic outlook than many other NSPA regions). This reflects high rates of youth
outmigration, especially younger females with higher levels of education. These problems
are exacerbated in the rural areas of the region which have small and fragmented labour
markets, which is leading to problems such as skills mismatches. Young people in the
region are not maximising their potential with lower levels educational attainment and
skills formation, and higher unemployment rates. In the context of an ageing population,
improving outcomes for the region’s youth will be important as a larger number of people
with specialised skills retire from the workforce (e.g. in health and social care).
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II. REGIONS IN NORTHERN SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS: 14 CASE STUDIES – 307
Annex: Statistical summary
Period
Västerbottens County
Sweden
OECD
National gap
OECD gap
1995
26 964
30 197
27 905
89%
97%
2012
36 975
42 082
35 812
88%
103%
GDP
2012
9 611
400 599
19 363
GDP share
2011
2.4%
n.a.
n.a.
Productivity
2000
65 650
73 873
59 692
89%
110%
2012
77 511
86 522
73 944
90%
105%
km2)
54 672
407 340
Area share of national
13.4%
n.a.
GDP pc
Area (in
n.a.
Population
2015
262 362
9 747 360
Population share
2015
2.7%
n.a.
n.a.
Population density
2015
4.8
23.93
343.39
Elderly dependency ratio
2015
32.29
30.56
27.68
Youth dependency ratio
2015
25.59
26.87
25.68
Road density (p)
2015
-
Road density (a)
2015
-
Primary attainment % of the population
2015
3.6%
5.0%
-
Tertiary attainment % of the population
2015
37.1%
35.7%
-
Unemployment rate
2014
7.1
8.0
8.7
-0.9
-1.6
Employment rate
2014
65.9
66.2
53.6
-0.3
12.3
Youth unemployment rate
2009
25.0
25.0
21.5
0.0
3.5
Patent applications
2011
40.25
131.00
105.72
Patents per million
2011
155.23
292.37
60.28
GDP pc growth
1995-2012
1.87%
1.97%
GDP growth
1995-2012
1.87%
2.43%
Productivity growth
2000-2012
1.39%
1.33%
Population growth
1991-2015
0.17%
0.51%
Elderly dependency (pp change)
1991-2015
5.82
3.42
Youth dependency (pp change)
1991-2015
-4.98
-0.94
Primary education (pp change)
1985-2015
-27.3
-23.2
Tertiary education (pp change)
1985-2015
23.1
22.0
Unemployment rate (pp change)
Employment rate (pp change)
1999-2014
1999-2014
-1.5
6.1
0.4
3.2
Changes
Notes: All national average values are weighted, apart from patent applications. All OECD average values are unweighted
meaning each regional value is treated as one observation (besides GDP pc). LF = labour force; pc = per capita; pp = percentage
point; p = population; a = area.
Source: Calculations based on OECD (2016b), OECD Regional Statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/region-data-en
(accessed 14 December 2016).
OECD TERRITORIAL REVIEWS: NORTHERN SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS © OECD 2017
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