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SITUATION REPORT: SPRING-EARLY SUMMER, 1945 THE MILITARY SITUATION Hitler's Germany surrendered on May 8, 1945; the Japanese Empire stood alone against the combined forces of the Allies. Japan's ability to wage war was declining fast. Her mighty air fleets were now reduced to a few thousand kamikaze (suicide) pilots piloted by young, inexperienced volunteers. The once formidable Imperial Navy had been almost totally destroyed. The Army could still muster large numbers of men, but its supplies of modern mechanized equipment were growing scarce. Fuel for planes and vehicles was critically low. The great industrial plants that might formerly have supplied these shortages lay in ruins under the almost daily bombing raids of the U.S. Air Force. Three years of savagely fought island battles had brought the American Armies to within 350 miles of Japan. Looming ahead was the final battle — the invasion and conquest of the Japanese home islands. American military intelligence estimates predicted a long and bloody campaign against an enemy who had demonstrated on countless battlefields that he would rather die fighting than surrender. But a new factor had entered the picture. On July 16, 1946, the first atomic bomb was tested successfully at Alamagordo, New Mexico. Possibly this awesome new weapon might shock the Japanese into accepting the constantly repeated American demand: unconditional surrender. American leaders differed regarding how the bomb should be used, or even whether it should be used at all. These options were being considered: 1. Use the bomb without warning, in such a way as to achieve the maximum possible shock effect. 2. Use the bomb only after giving the Japanese a clear warning and even demonstrating its power in some spectacular but harmless way. For example, invite Japanese observers to witness an atomic explosion on some desert island, or perhaps in some uninhabited area of Japan. Then, if Japan still refused to surrender, use the bomb against her cities. 3. Instead of becoming the first nation to use this dreadful new weapon, continue the naval blockade and conventional bombing of Japan. American naval and air operations were meeting little opposition from the Japanese and were having a devastating effect on Japan's war making capacity. 4. Continue the conventional bombing and blockade, then invade Japan as soon as possible in order to force the Japanese to accept our demand for unconditional surrender. 5. Find some way to convince the Japanese to end the war without either the invasion or the A-bomb. Two such possibilities existed. First, some American leaders argued that we should promise to allow the Emperor to remain on his throne. To the highly nationalistic Japanese this might be acceptable as an "honorable" peace, avoiding the disgrace of total surrender. Second, the Soviet Union had secretly promised to enter the war against Japan as soon as possible. This development alone might convince the Japanese of their course's hopelessness. (Persons within our government opposed both of these alternatives, as we shall see.) THE POLITICAL SITUATION The end of the war in Europe confronted the Americans with many urgent new problems, but two were most pressing. First, decisions had to be made affecting the European nations recently liberated from German occupation. The chief difficulty lay in Eastern Europe. Throughout that area the Red Army had driven the Germans back and replaced them as the occupying force. Despite earlier pledges to allow free elections in these countries, the Russians were rapidly installing communist-dominated governments. America's statesmen were desperately searching for some means to compel the Soviets to behave more reasonably. To some, the atomic bomb seemed to be the instrument they needed. Soviet-American relations were further complicated by the prospect of the U.S.S.R. coming into the war against Japan. United States leaders had been seeking this since at least 1943. Our information was that a large and well-equipped Japanese Army was stationed in Manchuria, facing the Soviet Far Eastern Army. If it were transferred back to Japan, it would dangerously strengthen the forces available to combat the planned American invasion. Therefore, the U.S. had obtained a Soviet promise to attack the Japanese in Manchuria within 90 days after the German surrender. The Soviet pledge had been renewed at the Yalta Conference in February, 1945, but since then American desire for Soviet assistance had cooled considerably. The obvious weakening of Japan, the ability of the U.S. Air Forces to bomb Japan with little resistance, our unopposed naval blockade, and above all, the successful test of the atomic bomb had persuaded our leaders that they could obtain a Japanese surrender within a short time and without Soviet intervention. This would have to be accomplished quickly, however; the deadline for the Soviet declaration of war against Japan was August 8.