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ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS and DEVELOPMENT Climate change effects on Mount Kenya’s Glaciers MIHAI VODĂ, VICTOR SOROCOVSCHI, RAMONA RAŢIU, RADU NEGRU Faculty of Geography Dimitrie Cantemir University Targu Mures, Bodoni Sandor 3-5, 540545 ROMANIA Abstract: - Mount Kenya is the second highest mountain in Africa and one of the few equatorial mountains with an ice cap, attracting a lot of tourists each year. Rising air temperature represents the primary driver of glacier future disappearance in the high areas of the mountain. The present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented at high elevations in the Mount Kenya. The continuing retreat of glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth's climate system. Key-Words: - climate change, glaciers, tourism, mountains, vulnerability. 1 Introduction 2 Climate change Climatic change has sensitive indicators represented by the low latitudes high mountains glaciers, near the Equator. Ice is still found on Mount Kenya, where Dr. Mihai Voda conducted research expeditions and observed the glaciers retreat from 2000 till 2007 [7]. The last seven years annual temperatures where among the highest ever measured, contributing to the ice recession in the glaciated high areas of Mount Kenya. Mount Kenya is the second highest mountain in Africa (5199 m or 17,330 ft) and one of the few equatorial mountains with an ice cap, attracting a lot of mountaineers, hikers and tourists. The mountain is located in the Mount Kenya National Park, which is a designated protected area around the mountain above 3200 m altitude. The Kenya Wildlife Service manages the park. The national park covers an area of 700 square kilometers and was established in 1949. Deforestation and pollution have already made a big gap on the top glaciers of Point Lenana, Bation and Nelion. Mount Kenya lost 92 % of its ice cap in the last century. This mountain is very important in the hydrological system of Kenya, being the origin for many rivers that are major sources of water and hydrological power. One Mount Kenya glacier is already completely lost. But the loss of ice could menace many species, like leopards and monkeys, adapted to the Mount Kenyas' "microclimates," ranging from forest to heather and icepack. The results of recent climate change impact studies confirm the assumption that the negative impacts of climate change do not occur equally in spatial respect. This is due to the fact that different types of landscapes differ in their vulnerability to climate change in terms of the main climate parameters “temperature” and “precipitation”. A general rise in mean temperatures leads to a moderate increase in natural areas with vegetation because of a higher ventilation and cooling due to evaporation. In contrast, the temperature rise leads to a disproportionate rise in the cores of naked mountains. Regions are thus affected by climate change to a large extent depends on the vulnerability of the types of landscape that exist within the region. ISSN: 1790-5095 2.1 Glaciers vulnerability Most studies from the climate change community can be referred to as an end point vulnerability assessment when examining climate vulnerability research. Future vulnerability is the residual of climate change impacts minus adaptation efforts. This requires information about the dynamism of vulnerability and adaptation effects over time, which is still a difficult issue to tackle especially over long time scales. A different concept is the vulnerability ‘starting point approach’, which focuses on the current system and its vulnerability [1]. 75 ISBN: 978-960-474-023-9 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS and DEVELOPMENT 12oC in July-August. There are two rainy seasons on the mountain from April-June and October-December. Mount Kenya is an important water catchment area and many rivers such as the Naro Moru emerge from the melting glaciers. Temperature distribution in a glacier depends on air temperature, accumulation, solar radiation, clouds, surface albedo, wind, meltwater runoff, percolation and refreezing of meltwater, ice flow and other parameters. On any given glacier, many of these parameters are known with uncertainties. The latter approach assumes the future is inherently uncertain and hence it is impossible to generate credible information about how vulnerable areas will develop over time. Moreover, the climate change community has also developed its own understanding of vulnerability, which in some cases is defined as the ability of a system to resist extreme events and changes in climate. 2.2 Retreating glaciers In East Africa glaciers began to recede only in the 1880's, concomitant with a climatic dislocation also manifest in the sudden drop of water level in the great lakes. The cause for the onset of glacier retreat is seen in increased net shortwave radiation accompanying decreased cloudiness and precipitation associated with a drastic change of circulation over the equatorial Indian Ocean [3]. On Mount Kenya, the largest glaciers are extended to the Southwest of the mountain, because of the strong diurnal circulation and because of the differential insulation resulting from the location of the mountain in the northern hemisphere. The Barlow Glacier on the Northwest face of Point Piggot, the Kolbe Glacier, located Northeast of Point Lenana and the Melhuish Glacier to the Southwest of Point Melhuish are some of the glaciers that have melted. Of the 18 ice entities at the end of the 19th century, 8 disappeared altogether, and all suffered substantial loss. The Mount Kenya Lewis Glacier fluctuated from an area of 0.60 square km in 1890 to 0.26 square km in 1982. In the same period, the elevation of the terminus rose from 4,465 m to about 4,600 m. Maximum ice flow velocity was estimated to about 15 m per year at the early part of the 20th century, while in 1982 the observe velocity was only about 3 meters per year [6]. "At this rate they will be gone in 10 years," said Levente Szasz, member of the ten-day Dimitrie Cantemir University expedition. Local tourism would be affected too: thousands of tourists have visited the Mount Kenya glaciers in the past years. The Krapf Glacier, Gregory Glacier, Lewis Glacier, Darwin Glacier (drastic decay from 1978 to 2006), Tyndall Glacier (stretching from 1949 to 2004), Cesar Glacier, Joseph Glacier and Northey Glacier have been presented in the Hastenrath photo documentation of the retreating glaciers. The mountain annual temperature range is about 2oC, with the lowest values in March-April and highest in July-August. Kenya has a climate with average annual temperatures of about 26oC. Diurnal temperatures range very large on Mount Kenya, amounting to about 20oC in January-February and about ISSN: 1790-5095 2.3 Climate change and tourism Tourism has attracted attention as both an important contributor to climate change through its greenhouse gas emissions, and as an industry that is potentially at high risk given the predicted changes in the global climate. The First Conference on Climate Change and Tourism convened by the World Tourism Organisation signals rising interest in the link between the two global phenomena, although the main research focus at this stage seems to be on the threat of a changing climate on tourist destinations. Tourism's role as contributor to climate change has largely been neglected, with only few studies having investigated energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with tourist activities [2]. The main actors in tourism are the tourists themselves, who make their travel decisions and exert considerable market power. Little is known, however, about whether tourists are aware of how their travel impacts on global climate, and conversely what impact a changing climate may have on tourist destinations. Moreover, there has been no research on the willingness of tourists to mitigate such effects. Almost all tourism experts believed that climate change is an issue for tourism. Generally, tourism experts focused on the impact of a changing climate on tourism [2]. At the moment the mountain attracts several thousand climbers annually, both local and international. It is this popularity that has contributed to the deterioration of the environment and the litter accumulation. The solution might be ecotourism activities implementation. Kenyan nature reserves have obtained actual effects in promoting sustainable development of ecotourism among local communities nearby Mount Kenya. Increasing community interest in a continuously participation is the key for ecotourism planning in Mount Kenya National Park. 76 ISBN: 978-960-474-023-9 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS and DEVELOPMENT seasonal variations affected Mount Kenya Glaciers. The penetration depth of seasonal temperature variations, is determined by the period of variations and the properties of the glacier: density, heat capacity and thermal conductivity [8]. Therefore, daily temperature variations are 20 times smaller at approximately 0.6m depth, and the yearly thermal wave penetrates down to 15-20 m, while thermal disturbance can reach 150 m depth within approximately 160 years [12]. 3 The causes Global warming is seen as the main culprit. Others point to a natural decrease in humidity that began in the late 1800s. Human activity is having an impact on the Mount Kenya’s glaciers. Throughout the tropics, all the glaciers are receding. Whether the cause is decreased humidity or increased temperature, the results are the same. In the Andes precipitation has increased in the last hundred years, but the glaciers are still retreating. It seems that rising air temperature, not reduced precipitation, represents the primary driver of glacier retreat in the tropics and subtropics [10]. The large-scale dynamics of the tropical climate system have changed. Horizontal temperature variations are small above a relatively shallow atmospheric layer near the Earth's surface. This condition results from the lack of a strong Coriolis effect to balance pressure differences resulting from temperature variations, and thus the tropical atmospheric mass is redistributed so as to nearly eliminate horizontal temperature gradients [9]. Of the meteorological variables controlling glacier mass balance (temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, humidity, etc.), only temperature exhibits large-scale spatial homogeneity, suggesting that it is the primary variable driving the retreat of most tropical ice fields. A decrease in annual precipitation of the order of 150 mm and associated cloudiness and albedo variations during the last quarter of the 19th century, followed by a temperature rise of a few degrees centigrade during the first half on the 20th century, are identified as the major climatic forcing of the observed glacier response [6]. Glaciers observations are essential in monitoring climatic change in the tropics. The photo documentation made during the Dimitrie Cantemir expedition in 2000 made possible the comparison with the glaciers photographs taken from the same positions during the Dimitrie Cantemir University 2007 expedition. The results are obvious: Mount Kenya Glaciers are melting faster than ever. Gregory and Krapf Glaciers almost disappeared and Lewis Glacier, the biggest of them all, retreated to higher altitudes with a lot of lost ice from the southern and eastern side. The tropical Lewis Glacier (Fig.1) retreated by more than 800 m between 1893 and 2004 and lost almost 16 m water equivalent of its thickness between 1979 and 1996 [11]. Mount Kenya guides said, in December 2007, that they have never seen such an intensive melting process as in the last seven years. It seems that the annual rise of the global air temperature and the ISSN: 1790-5095 Fig.1 Shrinking Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya [11] Because Mount Kenya glaciers experience surface melting, their temperature is close to the melting point, and a small fall or rise in air temperature, as during the last seven years, could have a significant impact on the heat and mass balance at the surface and consequently in the whole glacier within a relatively short period of time. 4 Conclusion The recent, rapid, and accelerating retreat of glaciers on a near-global scale suggests that the current increase in the Earth's globally averaged temperature may now have prematurely interrupted the natural progression of cooling in the late Holocene [4]. These observations suggest that within a century human activities may have nudged globalscale climate conditions closer to those that prevailed before 5,000 years ago, during the early Holocene. If this is the case, then Earth's currently retreating glaciers may signal that the climate system has exceeded a critical threshold and that most low-latitude, highaltitude glaciers are likely to disappear in the near future [10]. A large and unusual warming is underway at high elevations in the tropics. Although the factors driving the current enrichment (warming) may be 77 ISBN: 978-960-474-023-9 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS and DEVELOPMENT [10] Thompson, L.G., E. Mosley-Thompson, H. Brecher, M.E. Davis, B. Leon, D. Les, T.A. Mashiotta, P.-N. Lin, and K. Mountain, Evidence of abrupt tropical climate change: past and present. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(28), 2006, 1053610543. [11] UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Shrinking Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya [Internet]. UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library; June 2007 [cited 2008 Oct 24]. Available from: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/shrinking-lewis-glaciermount-kenya. [12] Zagorodnov, V., Nagornov, O., Thompson, L.G., E., Influence of air temperature on a glacier's active-layer temperature. Annals of Glaciology, 43, 2006, 285-289. debated, the tropical ice core confirms that it is unusual from a 2,000-yr perspective. Whether it is interpreted as a function of temperature, precipitation, or atmospheric circulation, the important message clearly preserved in these high-elevation ice fields is that the large-scale dynamics of the tropical climate system have changed. During the rainy seasons, the peak area of Point Lenana is often covered in snow, with depth on the glaciers of one meter or more. As a result of insulation conditions, the southern slopes of the mountain become snow free during the DecemberMarch season, whereas in July-October the north face becomes bare. Above 4,500 m altitude most of the annual precipitation falls in solid form. The maximum rainfall altitudinal belt lies around 2,700 – 3,100 m with amount decreasing towards the peak area. The wettest sector is on the outcast slopes Mount Kenya, with up to 2,500 mm per year, whereas the driest part to the north may receive less than 1,000 m per year. Yet, it seems that rising air temperature represents the primary driver of glacier retreat in high areas of Mount Kenya. References: [1] Adger, W. N., S. Huq, Brown, K., Conway, D. and Hulme, M., Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies 3, 2004, 179-195. [2] Becken S., How Tourists and Tourism Experts Perceive Climate Change and Carbon-offsetting Schemes, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, Vol.12, No.4, 2004, pp. 332-342. [3] Hastenrath, Stefan. Recession of equatorial glaciers: A photo documentation. Sundog Publishing, Madison, WI, 2008. [4] Hansen, J. E., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T. & Karl, T., Geophys. Res D Atmos. 106, 2001, 23947-23963. [5] Jones, P. D. & Moberg, A., Hemispheric and largescale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Climate 16, 2003, 206-223. [6] Mountain Club of Kenya, Guide to Mount Kenya and Kilimanjaro, Nairobi, 4rd. Edition, 1998. [7] Negru, R., Voda, M., Trasaturi geomorfologice si glaciare în Mount Kenya, Terra, Vol.1-2, 2002, pp.126-129. [8] Paterson, W.S.B., The physics of glaciers. Third edition. Oxford, Elsevier, 1994. [9] Sobel, A. H., Nilsson, J. & Polvani, L. M., The weak temperature gradient approximation and balanced tropical moisture waves, J.Atmos. Sci. 58, 2001, 36503665. ISSN: 1790-5095 78 ISBN: 978-960-474-023-9