Download Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont`d)

Greenhouse
Management
Chapter 02
Climate Change Impacts to Global
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-1
Chapter Objectives
1. What is climate change?
2. Global climate change
3. Global climate change impacts
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-2
What Is Climate Change?
• Climate Change
– Climate change is a change in the "average weather"
that a given region experiences. Average weather
includes all the features we associate with the
weather such as temperature, wind patterns and
precipitation.
– The earth's climate is dynamic, always changing. In
the past few million years, there have been spells of
Ice Age and warm periods. The causes of these
changes in climate have been natural. What the world
is more worried about now is the impact of human
activities on climate change.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-3
What Is Climate Change? (Cont’d)
• Human Cause
– Human activities are releasing greenhouse gases
(GHG) into the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2)
is produced when fossil fuels are use to generate
energy or when forests are cut down and burned.
– Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are
emitted in many ways for example agricultural
activities, change in land use, and other sources.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-4
Global Climate Change
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-5
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
• Temperature Change
– Analysis of the observed climate records has
revealed increases in global mean surface air
temperatures, over land and sea combined, of 0.4
to 0.8°C since the late 19th century.
– Most of this increase has occurred in two periods,
from 1910 to 1945 and since 1976.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-6
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
• Temperature Change
– A closer look reveals that the majority of this
temperature increase occurred during the last few
decades, when the global average temperature has
risen by about 0.2C per decade.
– During the last decade or so, global annual mean
surface temperatures have been among the warmest
on the instrumental record.
– The global mean temperature for 1998 made it the
warmest year ever recorded and the 1990s were the
warmest decade.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-7
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
• Precipitation Changes
– Enhancement of the greenhouse effect may lead
to changes in the hydrological cycle, such as
increased evaporation, drought and precipitation,
and it is likely that such changes would have a
higher regional variation than temperature
effects.
– However, precipitation over land has decreased
substantially in the last two decades.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-8
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
• Precipitation Changes
– Direct observations and model analyses indicate that
rainfall has also increased over large parts of the
tropical oceans.
– In North America the annual precipitation has
increased (Karl et al. 1993b; Groisman and Easterling
1994).
– In the northern region of Canada and Alaska a trend
of increasing precipitation has been detected during
the last 40 years (Groisman and Easterling 1994).
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-9
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
• Precipitation Changes
– In general, an increase in precipitation can be
found in Northern Europe and a decrease in
Southern Europe.
– The amounts of precipitation in the Sahel, West
Africa, in the period from 1960 to 1993 were
lower than in the period before 1960 (Houghton
et al. 1996).
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-10
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
• Sea level rise
– Over the last 100 years, sea level has risen
between 10 and 25 centimeters worldwide.
– It is most likely that the recent increase in the rate
of sea level rise is related to the observed increase
of the Earth's global temperature and the ocean
sea surface temperature.
– The observed melting and retreating of glaciers
and ice sheets indicates an additional sea level
rise between 2 and 5 centimeters.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-11
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Sea level rise
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-12
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Introduction
– The poor do not have adequate capacity and
resources to deal with and to adapt to climate
change.
– For example, rising sea levels will threaten millions
of people living in island states and in low-lying
deltas in countries like Bangladesh, Egypt and
China. Most of the endangered areas are in South
and South East Asia, where some 30 of the world’s
largest cities are located.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-13
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Introduction
– Global warming will affect water supplies and
reduce food production in the tropics and
subtropics, where most developing countries are,
putting millions of people at risk of hunger in the
future.
– It will also damage non-tropical forests, lead to
loss of species, and spread tropical diseases
towards temperate regions.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-14
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Introduction
– Climate change consists of three key effects:
changes in regional rainfall patterns, sea level rise,
and increased average temperature. These in turn
will have impacts on:
• Water resource
• Agricultural Production
• Human Health
• Coastal Areas
• Forest and Ecosystems
• Climate Disasters and Extreme Climate Events
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-15
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Water Resource
 Climate change will lead to changes in the
hydrological cycle.
 Precipitation will increase in some areas and decline
in others.
 This will change flood and drought frequency and
intensity.
 Changes in seasonal patterns may affect the regional
distribution of both ground and surface water
supplies.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-16
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Water Resource
 Changes in water temperatures could affect the
survival, diversity and productivity of fresh water
ecosystems.
 Rising sea levels will affect coastal freshwater supplies
due to seawater intrusion.
 Reduced water supplies would put additional pressure
on people, agriculture, and the environment.
 The most vulnerable regions are arid and semi-arid
areas, low-lying coasts, deltas and small islands.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-17
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
Water Resource
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-18
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Agricultural Production
 Higher temperature and changes in rainfall patterns
will have impacts on crop yields and productivity.
 Yields will probably decrease due to excessive
irrigation demand, increased rainfall, which will cause
soil erosion and soil leaching, and crop damages
caused by increasing extreme climate events.
 Sea level rise will also cause losses in cropland in lowlying coastal areas.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-19
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Agricultural Production
 The most vulnerable groups are the landless, poor,
and isolated people of developing countries.
 These countries normally have weak infrastructure,
limited access to technology and information, and
some also experience armed conflict.
 These factors will make it more difficult for people to
cope with the agricultural consequences of climate
change.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-20
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
Agricultural Production
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-21
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Human Health
 The direct impacts of climate change on health
include an increase in heat stress and in
cardiovascular, respiratory, allergic and air borne
diseases.
 Increase in frequency and/or intensity of extreme
weather events could result in death, injuries,
psychological disorders, and damage to public health
infrastructures.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-22
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Human Health
 Tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are
also likely to increase as the habitats for mosquitoes
and other vectors (insects) expand when the
temperature rises.
 Food- and water-related diseases will also increase
due to warmer temperatures, reduced water supplies
and proliferating microorganisms.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-23
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Human Health
 The poor will be more vulnerable to the health
impacts than the rich.
 However, richer countries will also be increasingly
vulnerable as their populations age.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-24
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Coastal Areas
 Observations show that the global average sea level
has risen by 10 to 25 cm over the last century, which is
mainly related to an increase of 0.3-0.6oC in the global
average air temperature since 1860.
 If the current trend in global warming continues, sea
level is predicted to rise another 15 to 95 cm by the
year 2100.
 This will occur due to the thermal expansion of ocean
water and an influx of freshwater from melting glaciers
and ice.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-25
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Coastal Areas
 The low-lying coastal zones and small islands are
extremely vulnerable to sea level rise.
 It is projected that a 1 m sea-level rise would
cause estimated land losses of 6% in the
Netherlands, 17.5% in Bangladesh and over 50%
for some small island states.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-26
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Forest and Ecosystems
 Forests play an important role in the climate system.
 They are a major reservoir of carbon.
 They also directly affect local, regional, and
continental climate by influencing ground
temperature, evapotranspiration, heat reflectivity,
cloud formation, and precipitation.
 At the same time, habitats will be degraded and
fragmented by the combination of climate change,
deforestation, and other environmental pressures.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-27
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Forest and Ecosystems
 The extinction of some plant and animal species that
are unable to cope with climate change impacts would
likely occur.
 An increase of just 1oC in the global average
temperature would affect the functioning and
composition of forests.
 Entire forest types may disappear, while new
combinations of species, and hence new ecosystems,
may be established.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-28
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-29
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– The most significant impacts of climate on society
are associated with its extremes, such as
droughts, floods, heat-waves, blizzards, cyclone,
volcanic eruption and earthquake.
– In regions where total precipitation has increased,
the frequency of heavy and extreme precipitation
events has also increased.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-30
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Drought
• Drought is a particular concern in Africa.
• The areas suitable for agriculture, the length of growing
seasons and yield potential, particularly along the
margins of Semi-arid and arid areas are expected to
decrease.
• By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are
projected to suffer greater water stress due to climate
change in the region.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-31
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Drought
• Increased drought hazard and decreasing
availability of food and water could lead to
scenarios of greatly increased risk that could
stretch existing humanitarian response systems.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-32
Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Flood
• Confirmed that heavy precipitation events are very
likely to become more frequent.
• Heavily populated mega-deltas in South, East, and
Southeast Asia will be at greatest risk.
• In Africa, rising sea levels will affect low-lying
coastal areas with large populations.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-33
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Cyclone
• A cyclone, hurricane or typhoon is a natural disaster
which also has its frequency and power boosted by
climate change.
• These cyclones are extremely violent especially through
high speed winds that tip everything in its path, large
quantities of rain and something large wave surges.
• Numerous areas of the planet are hit by such cyclones,
but the most violent occur in the US, South-East Asia,
and Australia.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-34
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
Cyclone
2-35
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Blizzard
• High winds, and large quantities of snow make
blizzards of the most unbearable phenomena.
• And to exemplify how cunning they can do, one of
most recent and deadly blizzards occurred in the
most unlikely areas: Afghanistan in 2008, where up
to 1,000 people died, many got frostbite and large
numbers of livestock didn’t survive the extreme
conditions.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-36
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
Blizzard
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-37
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Heat waves
• This is an example of a natural disaster which is
getting more frequent due to pollution and climate
change.
• Heat waves are extremely dangerous to human
lives especially because their effects are dramatic
and one can only do so much to hinder these
negative conditions.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-38
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Heat waves
• Extremely high temperatures and high humidity
levels for prolonged periods of time lead to death
by hyperthermia, crops failing and wide spread use
of air conditioning which can cause power cut. The
most relative example is the 2003 European heat
wave which caused the death of 70, 000 people.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-39
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
Heat waves
2-40
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Wildfires
• Nature at its most incontrollable is where wildfires
come in.
• Caused by extreme drought, lightning, and
sometimes even human negligence, they can burn
through entire forests, pastures or even cities, if
they are not extinguished or controlled in time.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-41
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Wildfires
• The obvious danger there is being burned, but
chocking on account of large quantities of smoke
or being left with nothing after pass are also
hazard.
• Such events occurred in Australia in 2009 when
more than 400 wildfires spread to produce the
highest count of human loses caused by bushfires.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-42
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
Wildfires
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-43
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Volcanic Eruptions
• Volcanic eruptions are one of the most terrifying
natural disasters that can occur on the earth.
• Though such a catastrophic eruption can happen
because some volcanoes are inactive for thousands
of years, but when it does erupt, huge explosions,
large gas clouds and overflowing lava are just the
tip of the danger they pose.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-44
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Volcanic Eruptions
• Edifying examples are the eruption of Krakatoa in
1883, classified as the loudest sound on earth,
which spread ash clouds all around the earth and
had the power of numerous atomic bombs, leading
to death of up 40, 000 people or even much more.
• Another classic example is that of Pompeii, the
ancient city which was burned and buried under
ash by the eruption of Vesuvius towering over it.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-45
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
Volcanic Eruptions
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-46
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Earthquake
• This type of natural disaster is probably the most
wide spread around the world and the most
terrifying considering its massive effects.
• Seismic wave shake the earth’s surface when two
land plates collided or shift.
• The earthquake in itself is not deathly, but the
aftermath effects are, to high degree.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-47
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Changes in Extreme Events
– Earthquake
• Depending on its magnitude, it can cause other
catastrophes such as collapsing building, landslide,
volcanic eruption, tsunamis, fires and explosions.
• The damages are unimaginable and the degree of
lives lost one of the highest. Massive earthquakes
have cost the lives of million over the course of
history
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-48
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
Earthquake
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-49
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Some Facts about Climate Change
– The world is heating up – fast. Temperatures are
rising more quickly than they have done for
10,000 years;
– The 1990s were the warmest decade on record,
and 1998 was the hottest year;
– The earth’s average surface temperature has
warmed between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees Celsius in
the last 100 years. It may rise by two degrees in
the next 100 years, if we go on producing
greenhouse gases at the present rate;
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-50
Global Climate Change Impacts
(Cont’d)
• Some Facts about Climate Change
– Sea levels have risen by between 10-25
centimeters in the last 100 years, as polar ice caps
have melted. They are projected to rise another
50 centimeters by 2100;
– There have been unpredictable and extreme
weather patterns – freak weather disasters such
as hurricanes, storms, and floods.
Prepared by Seng Theara, MBA
2-51