Download Tracking North Carolina Out of the Recession

Tracking North Carolina Out of the Recession
Richard Kaglic
November 9, 2010
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The Outlook (Last Year)
• Low trajectory climb out of the trough
• Consumers constrained by rising joblessness, need to rebuild
the balance sheet
• Investment hindered by weak demand, capacity excesses,
credit conditions
• Global economy is weak, but improving
• What to look for:
• Production to pick up, survey results, particularly PMIs
• Banks start lending again (risk spreads, lending surveys)
• Firms stop firing and start hiring (jobless claims)
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ISM: Business Survey Indexes
MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
Sep.
Oct.
Sep.
Oct.
Purchasing Managers Index
54.4
56.9
NonManufacturing Index
53.2
54.3
Production
56.5
62.7
Business Activity
52.8
58.4
New Orders
51.1
58.9
New Orders
54.9
56.7
Employment
56.5
57.7
Employment
50.2
50.9
Supplier Deliveries
52.3
51.2
Supplier Deliveries
55.0
51.0
Inventories
55.6
53.9
Inventories
47.0
47.5
Prices
70.5
71.0
Prices
60.1
68.3
Backlog of Orders
46.5
46.0
Backlog of Orders
48.0
52.0
New Export Orders
54.5
60.5
New Export Orders
58.0
55.5
Imports
56.5
51.5
Imports
53.0
54.0
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
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Senior Loan Officer Survey
Source: Board of Governors
5
Initial Jobless Claims
(000s, 4-wk MA
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: BLS/Haver Analytics
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Carolinas Business Activity Index
Index > 0 indicates expansion
Index
Assessment of Current Business Activity
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Nation
Oct-09
Region
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Company
Source: FRB Richmond
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Unemployment Rates
Percent
14.0
14.0
Sep.
US
12.0
12.0
NC
10.0
10.0
SC
8.0
8.0
6.0
6.0
4.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics
8
Payroll Employment
Index, December 2007 = 100
102
102
NC
100
100
SC
98
98
US
96
96
Sep.
94
94
92
92
90
90
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics
10
9
Employment Concentration
Location Quotients, U.S. average = 1.0
Construction
Mfg
Trade
Information
Financial Svcs
SC
Bus svcs
NC
Ed/health svcs
Leisure/hosp
Other svcs
Govt
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics
1.40
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Payroll Employment, North Carolina
Index, recession trough = 1.00
1.20
1.20
Mar-75
Nov-82
1.15
1.15
Mar-91
1.10
1.10
Nov-01
Jul-09
1.05
1.05
1.00
1.00
0.95
0.95
-24
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics
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11
Carolinas Business Expectations Index
Index > 0 indicates expansion
Index
Assessment of Activity Six Months f rom Now
90
75
60
45
30
15
0
-15
-30
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Nation
Jul-09
Oct-09
Region
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Company
Source: FRB Richmond
12
Real Gross Domestic Product
2009
Q3
2010
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product
1.6
5.0
3.7
1.7
2.0
2.0
0.9
1.9
2.2
2.6
-1.7
-12.4
4.2
-1.4
-29.2
14.6
7.8
-17.8
20.4
17.2
-0.5
24.8
9.7
3.9
12.0
Residential Fixed Investment
10.6
-0.8
-12.3
25.7
-29.1
Exports of Goods & Services
Imports of Goods & Services
12.2
21.9
24.4
4.9
11.4
11.2
9.1
33.5
5.0
17.4
1.6
-1.4
-1.6
3.9
3.4
1.8
0.2
1.3
4.3
2.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Structures
Equipment & Software
Government Consumption Expenditures &
Gross Investment
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories
-128.2
-36.7
Net Exports of Goods & Services
-390.8 -330.1
44.1
68.8
115.5
-338.4 -449.0 -514.9
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
13
Real Gross Domestic Product
2009
Q3
2010
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product
1.6
5.0
3.7
1.7
2.0
2.0
0.9
1.9
2.2
2.6
-1.7
-12.4
4.2
-1.4
-29.2
14.6
7.8
-17.8
20.4
17.2
-0.5
24.8
9.7
3.9
12.0
Residential Fixed Investment
10.6
-0.8
-12.3
25.7
-29.1
Exports of Goods & Services
Imports of Goods & Services
12.2
21.9
24.4
4.9
11.4
11.2
9.1
33.5
5.0
17.4
1.6
-1.4
-1.6
3.9
3.4
1.8
0.2
1.3
4.3
2.5
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Structures
Equipment & Software
Government Consumption Expenditures &
Gross Investment
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories
-128.2
-36.7
Net Exports of Goods & Services
-390.8 -330.1
44.1
68.8
115.5
-338.4 -449.0 -514.9
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
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Nonfarm Payroll Employment
500
Quarterly average of monthly changes, Thousands of persons
500
400
400
300
300
Oct.
200
200
100
100
0
0
-100
-100
-200
-200
-300
-300
Monthly Change
Oct.
151
Sep.
-41
Aug.
-1
July
-66
June
-175
-400
-500
-600
-700
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
-800
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
15
Alternative Measures of Unemployment
Percent
18.0
18.0
Official
16.0
16.0
Plus marginally attached
14.0
14.0
Plus part time
12.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
8.0
8.0
6.0
6.0
4.0
4.0
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
28
Alternative Measures of Unemployment
Percent
20
15
US
10
NC
SC
5
0
2007
2008
2009
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
28
Gauges of Inflation
Expenditure Price Indexes
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Aug.
2.3
0.8
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Core (excludes Food* and Energy)
Consumer Price Indexes
Aug.
3.1
0.6
Sep.
1.2
0.0
YoY %
1.1
0.8
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
Aug.
4.8
0.7
0.7
32.0
Finished Goods
Core (excludes Food and Energy)
Core Intermediate Goods
Crude
Crude Goods
Goods
Spot Commodity Price Index
YoY %
1.4
1.2
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
All Items
Core (excludes Food and Energy)
Producer Price Indexes
Sep.
1.0
0.3
Sep.
5.5
1.4
2.7
-5.6
YoY %
4.0
1.5
3.9
20.2
[Percent Change from Previous Month]:
Sep.
5.4
CRB Spot Commodity Price Index
Oct.
3.3
YoY %
28.7
Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics
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Miscellaneous: $154
Source: Board of Governors
19
Federal Reserve System Assets
2600
2400
$, Billions
TALF: $32
2200
Total: $2,346
Term ABS Lending
Facility (TALF): $28
Total: $2,342
AIG & Bear Stearns: $113
Miscellaneous: $154
AIG & Bear Stearns: $114
Agency MBS: $1,092
Agency MBS: $1,051
Miscellaneous: $159
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
Agency
Debt: $154
Agency
Debt: $150
600
400
Treasury Securities:
$801
Treasury Securities:
$840
200
0
9/22/2010
11/3/2010
Notes: Discount Window lending and Foreign Currency Swaps are less than $1 billion as of 9/22 and 11/03.
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
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www.richmondfed.org
21
[email protected]
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