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The Political-Economic and Institutional Framework for Assessing the Business Environment in Ukraine Vladimir Dubrovskiy CASE Ukraine www.case-ukraine.kiev.ua Keywords for the framework CASE Ukraine Societal structures: Blat networks of interpersonal exchange with favors Institutions: Discretionary rule; selective law implementation (enforcement) The nachal’niks as opposite to bureaucrats Political economy The “vicious triangle” of legislation-corruption-discretion Rent seeking, overappropriation, and “arbiter-client” relations Paternalism and its consequences “State capture” by corrupt networks In place of conclusions Some notions concerning the institutional changes Some examples Keywords: Discretionary rule CASE Ukraine Karamsin, 19th century Russian historian Institutional legacy of the former empire: “The severity of the Russian laws is alleviated only by discretion in their enforcement” “… just this disorder makes life in Russia possible” Gertzen, 19th century Russian social thinker Legislation is designed (intentionally?) in such a way that almost EVERYONE must become a lawbreaker Discretion is the only resort from such a “total guilt” Every business is subject to the authorities’ arbitrary, discretionary power Nachal’niks: not the bureaucrats! Bureaucracy (by Weber) Administrative power in Ukraine Highly-paid professional public servants facilitating rational processes of control. Implements legislation in a strictly formal (impersonal) way Poorly-paid and dependent upon administrative rents (in money or barter) Relies upon discretionary power and vague and arbitrary informal rules Operates under constant public scrutiny and political oversight Controls politicians rather than vice versa. Tries to control mass-media to avoid public scrutiny No decision-making power Clear separation of “powers” from branches of State Possesses the political power to magnify ambiguity and nontransparency in legislation Strictly controlled and separated from business Uncontrolled and mostly affiliated with business CASE Ukraine Corruption INTEREST ALLEVIATES INTEREST FACILITATES Legislation (flawed, ambiguous, impracticable) ENHANCES Discretion Decreasing the demand for improvements Keywords: Blat networks CASE Ukraine Forced modernization, especially the Communist regime: Legislation violated the natural law Normal economic activities were considered illegal No contract enforcement was officially available Ledeneva, 1998 Reputation-based informal networks of interpersonal mutual exchange with “favors of access” (blat) Emerge to facilitate the illegal transactions of all kinds Litwak, 1991 (!) Weak rule of law while “One has to deserve a right to pay a bribe” Keywords: The Rent Seeking Profit seeking CASE Ukraine Rent seeking Creation of the value apprised by a competitive market Appropriation of a value created by others or already existed A positive-sum game (“cooking A zero- or negative-sum game a pie”) increases the public (“cutting a pie”) usually wealth decreases the public wealth Players can agree on certain mutually-beneficial rules and enforce them Usually requires a coercive force to arrange appropriation and/or prevent overappropriation (“tragedy of the commons”, overfishing) Manufacturing, trading, financial operations, etc. – if conducted under the fair competition and an even “playing field” Robbing, fraud, racketeering, and ANY economic activities, to the extent they involve privileges, abuses of competition (like protectionism), etc. CASE Ukraine Rent as an exhaustible common resource Authoritarian arbiter player client A renewable rent source (as a state budget) player client player client client player Effects of an authoritarian rule Rent seeking sector Competitive market sector clien player t Monopoly rent clien player t Increase in the social wealth CASE Ukraine clien player t clien player t Decrease in the social wealth Enterprises’ rents depend primarily on the arbiter’s discretion Paternalism towards the enterprises Paternalism results in crises CASE Ukraine The government commits to “support a domestic producer” “support Protectionism of the effective demand” monetary emission Tolerating barter monopolism Tolerating arrears Forced crediting Soft crediting Direct subsidies Fiscal deficit Credit emission Price growth out of control Rents for the nachal’niks and oligarchs at the expense of the population; deadweight loses Evolution: CASE Ukraine The rent seeking is costly for a society It takes certain cost of an arbiter to coordinate and control the rent seekers The rent seeking contracts With exhausting of the available rents, and complicating of control and coordination Whither “captured state”: a dead end? Administrative Business: a “Milk caw” or a “Rent pump” for officials Property rights, rents Sources of rents power: Provides protection and patronage for business Perceived Perceived totally rent- manipulated Perceived totally seeking corrupted Blat Public As a result of the revolution: CASE Ukraine Public is not passive anymore, it became a “principal” of the politicians The oligarchs are not the main players anymore Political market emerges Executive power officials have lesser impact on the legislature Politicians appeal to the broad groups of population while Public consciousness is still immature: does not properly distinguish profits from rents supports redistributive activities (as “re-privatization”) supports “coordination and control” (e.g. price regulation) Threat of populism and paternalism towards large groups of population Formal and actual institutional changes Property rights Still controlled by the directors and bureaucrats by the means of paternalism CASE Ukraine The title property rights The residual rights of control “captured” by the directors and bureaucrats Time CASE Ukraine Evolution of the informal property rights 120 30 100 25 80 20 60 15 40 10 20 5 0 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 % of entities privatized by the moment in the total number of privatized entities ACTUAL percentage of the total labor force working at the private sector PERCEIVED working in the private sector (IS NAS survey) Depletion of the rent sources Market imbalances Financial instability Cheap energy and credit Subsidies and government contracts Close collaboration of business and officials based on blat «intermediate winners» Sources of Rent 1988 - 1994 Dependence on government's redistributive power Stripping of the fixed assets (“end game”) Sources of Rent 1995 – 2004??? 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