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Tourism Cycle Where do we go ? Tourism Cycle Butler 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Involvement 10 Exploration 0 1 Stagnation Decline or Rejuvenation Consolidation Development 2 3 4 6 - Decline OR Rejuvenation 6A - Decline option • The competition from other, ‘newer’, ‘more fashionable’ areas increases • The absolute numbers of tourists drops and the psychocentrics left are lower spenders looking for bargains 6A - Decline • The attendant property values on tourist facilities starts to decline (for sale signs, vacancies abound) • There is an increase in weekend or day trips if possible • Attempts are made to change activities perhaps use of facilities for retirement living 6A - Decline • Local involvement begins to grow again • Corporations leave the area • The economic base changes and falls in value - the ‘heyday’ is over 6B - Rejuvenation Option • This only seems to occur with a complete makeover 1 Return to the original attraction - clean up the physical environment and rejuvenate (upgrade) accommodation and other facilities • Stay with local ownership or high-grade outside ownership • Intense advertising and marketing 6B - Rejuvenation Option 2 Addition of human-made focus or facilities • Prime example would be gambling such as that created in Atlantic City • Use of previously untapped physical resource • Example would be such as older European Spas now used as facility bases for winter skiing • New England summer resorts refurbished and used for winter skiing • Hot trend - use of environment - Ecotourism Considerations • Places may not be able to sustain rejuvenation – May end up floating from one activity to another • Places may not see a ‘cycle’ progression but may establish a fixed long-term clientele • A steady state may develop where a steady return rate of mass tourists keep coming back – Example would be Disneyworld marketing changes and new developments and playing the nostalgia card – A different example would be places where cost and accessibility are foremost - such as English seaside resorts • So the cycle can be held at any stage or initiated (progression) by determined planning • Movement on either axis (time or number of visitors implies an increase in impacts • The cycle has a lifespan implicit (the X axis) but little work has been done on this aspect Alternative - Gormensen Model • Development may come from and be initiated by - external developers (pro active) • The tourist ‘elites’ that are linked to allocentric behaviour may demand luxury accommodations and facilities • Seeing trends and profit potentials, governments and local populations may initiate development and keep control • Factors other than tourism (Butler) may drive the system – Style of local culture – Government considerations • Butler may be a part (sub-set) of the above considerations Individual Decisions Processes The Decision Making Process • The time span for individual decisionmaking varies from individual to individual – depends on motivation and stimulation as we have discussed • If stimulation is not present then the individual may ignore messages about new activities or let minor obstacles hinder their participation The Decision Making Process • The complication for understanding the end result is that individuals also pass through stages when making decisions 1 - Assessment of Relative Value • This is an assessment based on how personally valuable the activity or facility would be – link to Maslow - fitness, enjoyment, personal gain • Problem is the perception of the activity or place - is it accurate? – activity, place, safety, cost 2 - Assessment of Probable Satisfaction • The assessment of an activity or place in relation to another activity or place • Are the new choices more valuable than the old – investment in ‘old’ activities or places • time - training, knowledge, familiarity • cost - equipment, training, knowledge of ‘deals’ 3 - Assessment of Personal Suitability • How comfortable will the individual be with all aspects of the activity or place? • Plog - familiarity and adventure, selfconfidence • How comfortable with re-training and new experiences (beginning classes may be a different age range) 4 - Assessment of Feasibility (Barriers) • The practical or perceived assessment of the restrictions on one – personal (economic, personal conditioning, age, sex, knowledge of opportunities, family ties - TIME) – facility or activity restrictions (scheduling, daylight, need for other participants, location) ‘It is a wonder that people recreate at all’