Download Solution

Project Management:
Tools & Techniques
LESSON 4
The problem
The city of XYZ has several bus companies. During the last years the
frequency of bus accidents has gone up significantly. This has caused much
delay and inconvenience for the passengers. There have also been several
serious accidents in which passengers have been killed.
The newspapers have taken a particular interest in the problem, and some
of the companies that have had more than their share of bad publicity have
registered a reduction in the number of passengers.
Much of the problem is technical: the buses are old, and are in bad
condition because of a persistent lack of spare parts.
But the human factor is also important: many accidents have been caused
by high-speed driving on bad roads.
Assignment:
Suppose that you are acting as the manager of one of the interested bus
companies.
Your task is to implement the Logical Framework Approach (LFA) in order
to decide upon a project that will address above problem.
Participation Analysis
On the basis of the available information, the first task
is to develop a comprehensive picture of the interest
groups, the individuals and institutions involved.
Present these groups in the cells of the matrix shown in
the following slide.
INSTITUTIONS INTEREST GROUPS
OTHERS
Hints to perform Participation
Analysis:
From the given problem information, think about the following involved
stakeholders:
• Bus company
• Passengers
• General public
• Mass media
• Drivers
• Bus owners
Categorize the above groups / stakeholders into three classes:
• Institutions
• Interest Groups
• Others
Solution
INSTITUTIONS INTEREST GROUPS
Bus company
Passengers
Mass media
Drivers
Owners
OTHERS
General public
Make a more detailed analysis of the
most important groups
Select as most important groups:
• Passengers, and
• Bus Companies
Make a more detailed analysis of these groups, i.e., identify for
each group the following:
• Problems: The main problems affecting or facing the group
• Interests: The main needs and interests as seen from the
group's point of view
• Potentials: The strengths and weaknesses of the group
• Linkages: Main conflicts of interests, patterns of cooperation
or dependency with other groups
Present your findings in the cells of the matrix shown in the
following slide.
BUS COMPANIES
PROBLEMS
INTERESTS
POTENTIALS
LINKAGES
PASSENGERS
Hints to identify problems, interests, potentials
and linkages:
Consider the following findings:
1. Economic losses caused by busses
out of service
2. Sufferings for victims and their
families
3. Economically viable operations
4. Able to directly influence the
problem
5. Can choose other bus companies if
necessary
6. Delays caused by accidents
7. Reduced number of passengers
8. Dependent upon the passenger’s
cooperation
9. Safe, expedient and cheap
transport
10. Boycott the only means to
influence the problem
11. Economic losses caused by
payments to victims
Categorize the above findings into four classes:
 Problems
 Interests
 Potentials
 Linkages
and identify the group (Bus Companies or Passengers) each finding is more
relevant / valid
BUS COMPANIES
PASSENGERS
Solution
Economic losses caused by busses Delays caused by
out of service
accidents
PROBLEMS
Economic losses caused by
payments to victims
Sufferings for victims and
their families
Reduced number of passengers
Economically viable operations
INTERESTS
Safe, expedient and cheap
transport
Able to directly influence the
POTENTIALS problem
Boycott the only means to
influence the problem
LINKAGES
Dependent upon the passenger’s
cooperation
Can choose other bus
companies if necessary
Problem Analysis
• Suppose that you decided to give priority to passengers’
interests
• Set as “focal problem” for passengers the following: frequent
bus accidents
• Identify the causes / effects of the focal problem
• Construct the “problem tree”
• You can complete the problem tree presented in the following
slide
Hints to perform problem analysis:
• The substantial and direct causes of the focal problem are
placed parallel underneath it
• The substantial and direct effects of the focal problem are
placed parallel on the line above it
• Causes and effects are further developed along the same
principle to form the problem tree
Complete the
Problem Tree
Effect
Cause
More hints for Problem Analysis:
• Consider the following factors :
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Drivers are not careful enough
People arrive too late
Insufficient maintenance
Economic losses for passengers
Bad condition of vehicles
Loss of confidence in the bus company
Bad condition of roads
Passengers are hurt or killed
Vehicles are too old
• Categorize them into cause and effect factors of the focal problem
(“frequent bus accidents”)
• Place each factor accordingly in the problem tree
Solution
Economic losses for
passengers
Loss of confidence in
the bus company
Passengers are hurt
or killed
People arrive too
late
Effect
Frequent bus
accidents
Cause
Drivers are not
careful enough
Vehicles are too old
Bad condition of
vehicles
Bad condition of
roads
Insufficient
maintenance
Objectives Analysis
• Suppose that you have decided to add
"training of drivers" as a means to make
drivers more responsible
• Construct the objectives tree by rewording
problems in the problem tree into objectives
(positive / desirable conditions)
Hints to perform Objectives Analysis
• The problem tree is transformed into a tree of objectives (future
solutions of the problems)
• Working from the top downwards, all problems are reworded, making
them into objectives (positive statements)
• The focal problem is similarly transformed into an objective
• Difficulties in rewording may be solved by clarifying the original problem
statement
• If the statements make no sense after being reworded from problems,
write a replacement objective, or leave the problem unchanged
• Check that meeting objectives at one level are sufficient to achieve the
objective at the next level
– Problems: "If cause A, then effect B"
– Objectives: "Means X in order to achieve end Y“
• Caution: Every cause-effect relationship does not automatically become
a means-end relationship. This depends on the rewording
• Working from the bottom upwards, ensure that cause-effect
relationships have become means-ends relationships
• Finally, draw lines to indicate the means-ends relationships in the
objectives tree.
How the Objectives Tree is developed
• Reformulate all elements in the problem tree into positive
(desirable) conditions
• Review the resulting means-ends relationships to assure
validity and completeness of the objective tree
• If necessary:
– Revise statements
– Delete objectives which appear unrealistic or
unnecessary
– Add new objectives where necessary
• Draw connecting lines to indicate the means-ends
relationships.
Reformulate “Problems” into “Objectives”
Complete
the
objectives
(cells of the
2nd column)
in the table:
Problems
Objectives
Economic losses for
passengers
Loss of confidence in
the bus company
Passengers are hurt or
killed
People arrive too late
Frequent bus accidents
(focal problem)
Drivers are not careful
enough
Bad condition of
vehicles
Bad condition of roads
Vehicles are too old
Add “Drivers are better trained” as a means to make drivers more
Insufficient
responsible Maintenance
Solution
Problems
Objectives
Economic losses for
passengers
Passengers economic losses are
reduced
Loss of confidence in
the bus company
Passenger’s confidence is restored
Passengers are hurt or Few passengers hurt or killed
killed
People arrive too late
Passengers arrive on time
Frequent bus
accidents (focal
problem)
Frequency of accidents is
considerably reduced (focal
objective)
Drivers are not careful Drivers drive carefully and
enough
responsibly
Bad condition of
vehicles
Vehicles are kept in good condition
Bad condition of roads Road conditions are improved
Vehicles are too old
Old vehicles are replaced
Insufficient
Maintenance
Vehicles are maintained regularly
“Drivers are better trained” is the cause factor for “Drivers drive
carefully and responsibly”
Complete the
Objectives
Tree
End
Means
Solution
Passengers economic
losses are reduced
Passenger’s confidence
is restored
Few passengers hurt
or killed
Passengers arrive on
time
End
Frequency of accidents
is considerably reduced
Drivers drive carefully
and responsibly
Drivers are better
trained
Vehicles are kept in
good condition
Road conditions are
improved
Old vehicles are
replaced
Vehicles are
maintained regularly
Means
Alternatives Analysis
• Three steps:
1. Eliminate the objectives which cannot be achieved
2. Identify two possible alternative options (means-end branches
in the objectives tree) which could become possible projects
• These means-end branches constitute the alternative options
• Number and label thee alternative options
3. Evaluate the two alternative options (and their combination)
with respect to the following viability criteria:
• Cost
• Chance for success
• Cost/Benefit
• Time horizon
• Social risk
Alternatives Analysis:
st
1
Step
• Determine and eliminate the objectives which
cannot be achieved
Alternatives Analysis – Objectives
which cannot be achieved (Solution)
• Improved road conditions are entirely outside
the reach of any of the bus companies
Alternatives Analysis: 2nd Step
– Identify two possible alternative options (meansend branches in the objectives tree) which could
become possible projects
• These means-end branches constitute the
alternative options
• Number and label thee alternative options
• Show these options in the objectives tree
Re-design the
Objectives
Tree
OPTION 1
OPTION 2
Solution
 OPTION 1: Better
Passengers economic
drivers
losses are reduced
 OPTION 2: Better
Few passengers hurt
buses
or killed
Passenger’s confidence
is restored
Passengers arrive on
time
Frequency of accidents
is considerably reduced
Drivers drive carefully
and responsibly
Drivers are better
trained
OPTION 1
“Improved road
conditions” should
be eliminated
Vehicles are kept in
good condition
Road conditions are
improved
Old vehicles are
replaced
Vehicles are
maintained regularly
OPTION 2
Alternatives Analysis: 3rd Step
– Evaluate the two alternative options (and their
combination) with respect to the following
viability criteria:
– Cost
– Chance for success
– Cost/Benefit
– Time horizon
– Social risk
– Select one of the options (option 1, option 2 or
their combination) as the appropriate project
strategy for the bus company
Complete the Comparison Table
 Use linguistic terms (Low/High, Short/Long etc.) to evaluate
the options
 Justify your evaluations
Option 1
Cost
Chance for
success
Cost/Benefit
Time horizon
Social risk
Option 2
Option 3
(Option 1 & Option 2
combined)
Solution
Option 1
Option 2
Better drivers Better buses
Option 3
(Option 1 & Option 2
combined)
Cost
Chance for
success
Cost/Benefit
Low
Low
High
Low
High
High
High
Low
High
Time horizon
Short
Long
Long
Social risk
Low
Low
Low
Justification for the evaluations (shown in the
comparison matrix) and final project decision
• Option 1 (better drivers) is limited to a training
programme. The chance of success is low if the buses
are still in bad condition
• Option 2 (better buses) is more expensive, and there
is no guarantee that the result will be positive unless
the drivers also improve
• A third option would be to combine option 1 and
option 2. It would be the most expensive
alternative, but has a higher probability of success
• The result is that one of the options are chosen as
the project strategy, in this case option 3
Compete the
Project Matrix
(PM)
Complete the Project Matrix (PM): 1st
Step (1/2)
– Identify main project elements for the selected
project strategy
– Use the objectives tree to identify the main
project elements
• Start at the top of the objectives tree and work
downwards
• If necessary, reformulate the wording from the
objectives tree to make them more accurate
Complete the Project Matrix (PM): 1st
Step (2/2)
– Transfer the project elements into the first vertical column of the
project matrix (Goal, Purpose, Outputs, Activities)
• The goal describes the anticipated long term objective towards
which the project will contribute
• The purpose describes the intended effects of the project
(project purpose) for the direct beneficiaries as a precisely stated
future condition. There should be only one immediate objective
• The outputs are expressed as objectives which the project
management must achieve and sustain within the life of the
project. Their combined impact should be sufficient to achieve
the immediate objective
• Activities are expressed as processes. Avoid detailing activities
• Main inputs for the activities can be expressed in terms of funds,
personnel, goods etc.
Complete “Goal”, “Purpose”, “Outputs”, “Activities” and “Inputs”
cells in the PM matrix
Solution
Complete the Project Matrix (PM): 2nd
Step
• Identify assumptions
• Assumptions describe conditions that must exist if the
project is to succeed but which are outside the direct
control of the project management
• Start from the bottom of the objectives tree and work
upwards
• Examine whether the inputs are sufficient to undertake
the anticipated activities or whether additional events
must also take place outside the project (assumptions)
• Some assumptions can be derived from elements in the
objectives tree which were eliminated
Complete “Assumptions” cells in the PM matrix
Solution
Remember
that
"improved
roads“ was
eliminated
from the
objectives
tree
Complete the Project Matrix (PM): 3rd
Step
• Determine indicators
• The indicators specify how to verify the
attainment of objectives and outputs.
• Some indicators can be derived from the
objectives tree (an indicator, for example, can
specify exactly how much the frequency of bus
accidents should be reduced and by which date)
Complete “Indicators” cells in the PM matrix
Solution
(1/2)
Solution (2/2)
 More detailed indicators can be identified as part of the project monitoring
system.
 Taking output no. 1 “Drivers Trained”, as example, two indicators can be
specified:
 Indicator 1:
 From the existing 120 drivers at least 60% are trained in year 1 and 40% in
year 2; of the trained drivers all register a qualitative improvement in
driving abilities, style and adherence to traffic rules, verified according to
criteria set and agreed upon with the Traffic Department of the city and
surveyed sporadically through checks and road controls.
 Indicator 2:
 Complaints against trained bus drivers concerning driving ability, style and
observation of traffic rules is less than 20% of present levels (30
complaints / day) by middle of year 2. Means of verification:
 Traffic Control Reports, Traffic Dept.
 Independent Bus Traffic Surveys
 Bus company Complaint Book
 Traffic Rules Violation and Fines Register, city Police Dept.
The assignment presented in the previous slides is based on an
example described in the following report:
The Logical Framework Approach (LFA) – Handbook for
objectives-oriented planning
4th edition, the Norwegian Agency for Development
Cooperation (NORAD), 1999