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```Lecture notes 5: sampling distributions
and the central limit theorem
Highlights:
•
The law of large numbers
•
The central limit theorem
•
Sampling distributions
•
Formalizing the central limit theorem
•
Calculating probabilities associated with sample
means
Two important results in
inferential statistics
•
Two results that are important in establishing the
basis for inferential statistics are the law of large
numbers (LLN) and the central limit theorem (CLT).
•
Both of these results have to do with sample size, and
the kinds of behaviors we can expect from statistics
which are calculated using “large” samples rather
than “small” samples.
•
We will first consider the LLN, and then the CLT.
The law of large numbers
•
The law of large numbers tells us what tends to
happen to a sample mean as the sample size gets
bigger.
•
It says that, as our sample size increases, the
average of our sample will tend to get closer and
closer to the true average of the population from
which we are sampling.
•
Here is a simple example: if you flip a coin twice,
you may well get two heads. In this case, you will
have flipped heads, on average, 100% of the time.
•
You may also get two tails. In this case, you will
have flipped heads, on average, 0% of the time.
•
You may also get one tail and one head, which
would give you the “correct” average of 50%, but
there is a very good chance that your average will be
very far off from the true average.
•
If you flip a coin 10 times, chances are still pretty
good that the average number of heads will be far
away from 5.
•
Now let’s say you flip a coin 1,000,000 times. Again,
you are unlikely to flip heads exactly 50% of the
time. However, rate at which you flip heads will
almost certainly be very close to 50%.
•
Here is a visual example of how the proportion of
coin flips that are heads approaches 50% as the
number of flips increases:
•
Likewise with rolling dice. Here is an image showing
the behavior of the average of the rolls of multiple
dice as the # of dice (or “trials”, as the horizontal
axis is labeled) increases:
Note that the “population” average is (1  2  3  4  5  6)  3.5
6
•
The law of large numbers would also apply to
estimating human height using a sample.
•
The average height of adult American women is 64
inches (or 5ft, 4”).
•
If you take a sample of two adult American women,
you might happen to pick to who are taller than
average, or two who are shorter than average.
•
If you sample 200 adult American women, these
differences will mostly cancel out, and the average
from your sample should be very close to 64”.
(The average for women in our class is 64.51”.)
•
The law of large numbers also tells us why casinos
don’t have to worry about going out of business due
to a bunch of lucky gamblers.
•
Casino games are always designed so that the
casino has an advantage, in the sense that over the
long run they will tend to make money and gamblers
will tend to lose money.
•
So, even though an individual gambler may do very
well at a casino, if you combine the winnings and
losing thousands upon thousands of gamblers, the
house will on average make money.
•
To use the dice example: I wouldn’t bet \$1,000 that,
on a single roll of a die, the number that comes up
will be less than five, even though there is a 4/6
chance of this happening and I would have the
advantage.
•
However I would bet \$1,000 that on 10 rolls of a die,
the average of all the rolls would be less than five.
This is because I know that, by the law of large
numbers, the average of the rolls will be close to 3.5.
•
Just how unlikely is it that the average of 10 rolls
will be 5 or greater? We will find the answer to this
using the central limit theorem.
The Central Limit Theorem
•
The Central Limit Theorem tells us that any
distribution (no matter how skewed or strange) will
produce a normal distribution of sample means if you
take large enough samples from it.
•
Furthermore, the larger the sample sizes, the less
spread out this distribution of means becomes.
•
This is of great importance in statistics. It allows us to
use the properties of a normal distribution when
analyzing data, even when the data we are analyzing is
not normal.
•
This is nice, because we rarely work with normally
distributed data, and we are often interested in means.
• Here is how it works: take any distribution you
like; for instance, this heavily positively skewed
distribution:
•
Now take a random sample from this
distribution. I used software to take a sample of
size n=2.
> sample1=sample(x,2)
 11 9
> mean(sample1)
 10
•
So, we took a random sample, and got the numbers
11 and 9. Their mean is 10.
•
We can keep doing this over and over again,
and recording the mean of each sample.
•
Here are the results I got from doing this 20
more times. Remember, for each sample, I
draw two random numbers from our skewed
distribution, and then I find their average. So
these are all sample means, from samples of
size n=2:
22.0
4.0
17.5
14.0
16.5
6.5
14.0
19.5
33.0
10.0
16.0
9.5
32.0
9.5
19.5
6.5
6.5
8.5
12.0
7.5
•
Here is a histogram of the 20 sample means from
the previous slide, along with that of the original
data:
•
Notice that this new histogram looks much closer
to a normal distribution than the original. All we
did was take repeated samples of size n=2, and
then graphed their averages.
•
Let’s see what happens when we increase the
sample size.
Sample size: n=10
Sample size: n=30
Despite being skewed, it didn’t take very large samples
for this dataset to quickly “turn normal”. Also notice
that, as the sample size increases, the distribution of
means becomes less spread out.
•
How large the sample size must be before we can be
confident that the distribution of sample means will
be normal depends upon how far from (or close to)
normal the underlying distribution is.
•
Extremely skewed distributions require larger
sample sizes. Distributions that are already normal
will always have normally distributed sample
means.
•
As a very loose, general rule of thumb, n=30 is a
“safe” sample size under which we can assume
the distribution of sample means is normal. If
the underlying distribution is already close to
normal, the sample size can be much smaller. If
the underlying distribution is extremely skewed, the
sample size needs to be much larger.
Sampling distributions
•
All of the histograms we just looked at are examples
of sampling distributions.
•
A sampling distribution is the distribution of a
statistic “under repeated sampling”. In other words,
it tell us the values that a statistic takes on, and
how often it takes them on.
•
Note again how these sampling distributions were
created: in these examples, we kept taking new
samples from the same population over and over
again, and each time we recorded the sample mean.
•
Each histogram we created displayed a sampling
distribution of means.
Sampling distributions
•
The central limit theorem tells us about the behavior
of the sampling distribution of a mean.
•
All statistics have associated sampling distributions.
•
Any time we calculate a statistic from a random
sample, we can treat it as having come from a
sampling distribution of possible values for that
statistic that we could have had our sample been
different.
•
This concept is the basis for all of the inferential
procedures we will look at.
Sir Francis Galton on the Central Limit Theorem:
“I know of scarcely anything so apt to impress the
imagination as the wonderful form of cosmic order
expressed by the law of frequency of error. The law
would have been personified by the Greeks if they had
known of it. It reigns with serenity and complete selfeffacement amidst the wildest confusion. The larger
the mob, the greater the apparent anarchy, the more
perfect its sway. It is the supreme law of
unreason. Whenever a large sample of chaotic
elements are taken in hand and marshaled in the
order of their magnitude, an unsuspected and most
beautiful form of regularity proves to have been latent
all along.”
Formalizing the Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem can be stated formally:
For any distribution with mean μ and standard
deviation σ, the distribution of sample means
converges to a normal distribution with mean μ and
standard deviation
, as n goes to infinity.
Here, “as n goes to infinity” can just be thought of as
“as n gets larger and larger”. And the distribution of
the sample means can be written as:
Formalizing the Central Limit Theorem
•
This reads as “X-bar is distributed normally with
mean mu and variance sigma squared over n.”
•
Note that if the variance is
deviation will be
.
•
We can also use this notation to describe the
standard normal distribution:
•
i.e. “z is distributed normally with mean 0 and
variance 1”
, the standard
Formalizing the Central Limit Theorem
Since we know that the sampling distribution of a
sample mean will converge to a normal with mean μ
and standard deviation
, we can convert any
sample mean to a z-score and find probabilities
associated with it, using a slightly modified z
formula:
Note that, in order to use this formula, μ and σ
must be either known or assumed.
Calculating probabilities associated
with sample means
•
Here is the example we introduced earlier: the 6
numbers on a die have a mean of 3.5 and a standard
deviation of 1.87. What is the probability that the
average of 10 rolls will be less than 5?
•
Formally, this can be written as:
•
To convert x to z, we use this new z formula:
Which gives us:
Calculating probabilities associated
with sample means
Another example: we know that the heights of adult
women in the U.S. are normally distributed with a mean
of 64 inches and a standard deviation of 3 inches.
What is the probability that a sample of 20 women will
yield a mean height between 63 and 65 inches?
Formally, we can write this as:
Using our z formula gives us:
Calculating probabilities associated
with sample means
To get a feel for how the distribution of the sample
mean differs from the distribution of the original
variable itself, let’s find the probability that one
randomly selected women’s height will be between 63
and 65 inches:
P (63  x  65) 
Calculating probabilities associated
with sample means
Note that this probability is much smaller than the
one we calculated for a sample mean. Visually, we
can draw how the distribution of height itself differs
from the distribution of mean height when the sample
size is n=20:
Putting the LLN and CLT together
•
The central limit theorem can also be understood in
terms of the law of large numbers.
•
The law of large numbers tells us that, as our
sample size increases, the mean of our sample is
more and more likely to be close to the true mean.
•
If we take lots of samples from a population (i.e. if
we obtain a sampling distribution), then each
sample mean is more likely to be close to the true
mean if the sample size is large rather than if it is
small.
Putting the LLN and CLT together
•
So, if we have a sampling distribution of means
taken from a population, then the larger each
sample was, the less spread out around the true
population mean this distribution will be.
•
This agrees with what we know from the central
limit theorem: that, as our sample size gets larger,
sampling distribution of the mean becomes both
more “normal” and less spread out, since the
standard deviation of these means gets smaller.
Remember the sampling distribution!
•
In the next set of notes, we will begin discussing
formal statistical inferential procedures.
•
In these procedures, we will be computing special
kinds of statistics from sample data, called “test
statistics”.
•
These test statistics will be treated as having come
from a known sampling distribution, which will
double as a probability distribution.
•
This will allow us to compute probabilities
associated these statistics, which in turn will help
us answer scientific questions – which is the reason
we collect data in the first place!
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