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3. Climate Change 3.1 Observations 3.2 Theory of Climate Change 3.3 Climate Change Prediction 3.4 The IPCC Process 3.2 Theory of Climate Change - The Greenhouse Effect The Greenhouse Effect is a fundamental physical effect that is NOT controversial. It is an important effect that keeps our planet considerably warmer than if it did not operate. This is because water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. Solar Radiation Received at TOA Solar absorbed Northward transport by atmosphere 3 Outgoing radiation Northward transport of energy Incoming and Outgoing Radiation Incoming Solar radiation OutgoingTerrestrial radiation Visible radiation Solar radiation is shortwave Terrestrial radiation is longwave (infrared) 4 Earth’s Energy Budget 5 Short Wave Radiation reflected from surface: Annual Long Term Mean 6 Monthly Mean OLR 7 Net Radiation at the top of the atmosphere 8