Download A “Flat World”

Strategies for Optimizing
Scientific Productivity for Future
Observatories:
A “Flat World” for Astronomical
Research
Discussion Topics
• Science topics that the 8-10 m telescopes will be able to
address in the E-ELT era.
• Will the 8-10m telescopes be mere support telescopes or
will they be able to reserve a scientific niche?
• Will the ELTs be latest machines we astronomers will ever
be able to build for economic or technical reason? If so,
should the role of the 8-10 m telescopes be different from
what it is envisaged now?
• Will observational astronomers become fully and forever
detached from the telescopes, as they increase in
complexity and the pressure for its use makes them
unreachable?
Observatory Productivity:1990’s
C.R. Benn, S.F. Sanchez, Astro-ph, 17 October, 2000
Observatory Productivity:1990’s
C.R. Benn, S.F. Sanchez, Astro-ph, 17 October, 2000
“The strong showing by 1-m and 2-m
telescopes in the 1990s augurs well for the
continued scientific impact of 4-m
telescopes in the era of 8-m telescopes.”
Observatory Productivity:2000’s
J.P. Madrid, D. Macchetto, Astro-ph, 28 January, 2009
Three Strategies for
Scientific Productivity
Type I—Full Service: Well resourced
observatory providing a wide range of
observing capabilities and services.
Type II—Vertically Integrated: optimized
place in the “food chain”, synergy and value
added with other major astronomical
facilities
Type III—Laterally integrated: strategic
relationships with other observatories in its
class
Type I: Full Service
Space Telescope Science Institute
–
–
–
–
–
–
$50M/yr operating budget
~400 staff, strong user support
$20 M/yr grant support
$3M/yr outreach budget
Wide range of instrumentation
Data pipelines, robust data archive
VLT, Subaru, others
? NOAO: no longer a viable strategy after
~2000
Type II: Vertically Integrated
Value Added Synergy With Major Observatories
 Blanco 4m identification of Type I
Supernovae/HST and other follow up
 Keck AO synergy with HST: ir and vis imagery at
same spatial scales.
Type II: Vertically Integrated
Value Added Synergy With Major Observatories
? NOAO envisioned as “gateway to Gemini”
? Gemini as part of the “Decade of Infrared” Triad
Type III: Laterally Integrated
Strategic Relationships with Other Comparable Observatories
• Gemini time exchange with Subaru, and
Keck
• NOAO: Organizational focus on U.S.
telescopes working as a “system”
– Telescope System Instrumentation Program
(TSIP) provides instrumentation and access for
6-10 m telescopes
– Renewing Small Telescopes for Astronomical
Research (ReSTAR) improves access and
performance for small telescopes
ReSTAR
• Concern within US that small telescope
access would be sacrificed in era of 30 m
class telescopes
• Effort to scientifically link
1-6 m telescopes  8-30 m telescopes
• However, much stronger role identified in
further optimizing 1-6 m science
Major ReSTAR Science Themes
• Synoptic and time-critical observations of rapidly moving solar system
objects such as comets and asteroids.
• In the rapidly growing field of exo-planet studies, these telescopes are
well-suited time domain studies of exo-planets transiting in front of
their parent stars and for follow up of microlensing events.
• Studies for Star forming regions and of the inter-stellar medium via
wide field imaging in both broad and narrow-band filters.
• Stellar interferometry and astero-seismology for detailed two and three
dimensional studies of individual stars.
• Synoptic imaging and spectroscopic studies of variable stars and stellar
clusters.
• Synoptic photometric and spectroscopic observations of extra-galacitc
compact objects to study the physics of accretion disks.
• Wide field surveys for medium to high redshift galaxies to study large
scale structure in the Universe (Big-Boss, Dark Energy Survey, etc.
Strategies for the Future:
A Flat World
A Flat World
• In economics: the convergence of technology and
social factors that allowed India, China, etc. to become part
of the global supply chain for services and manufacturing,
creating an explosion of wealth in the middle class.
A Flat World
• In economics: the convergence of technology and
social factors allowed the creation of a global, web-enabled
playing field that allows for multiple forms of
collaboration – the sharing of knowledge and work – in
real time, without regard to geography, distance, or in the
near future, even language.
A Flat World
• In economics: the convergence of technology and
social factors allowed the creation of a global, web-enabled
playing field that allows for multiple forms of
collaboration – the sharing of knowledge and work – in
real time, without regard to geography, distance, or in the
near future, even language.
• In astronomy: the convergence of technology,
economics and sociology that creates a new (level) playing
field in which competitiveness is no longer dominated by
aperture size alone.
Factor 1
Technology
Advances in Detectors + Advances in
Information Technology
Growth in CCDs vs. Glass
1000
CCDs
Glass
10
1
0.1
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Relative Increase
100
Current Data Holdings in US
US Archives
2010 Holdings GROWTH
TB
RATE TB/yr
STScI
Goddard (HEASARC)
Chandra Science Center
Spitzer Science Center
NASA/IPAC (IRSA)
NASA/IPAC (NED)
SAO Astrophysics Data Sys
TOTAL SPACE
113
70
14
26
50
5
10
288
65
12
1.5
6
50
0.2
0.5
135.2
NOAO
NRAO
GEMINI
KECK
SMA
Arecibo
Sloan Digital Sky Survey
TOTAL GROUND
47
70
7
4
4
40
88
260
10
50
0.9
1.5
0.6
55
-118
The Result-High Impact Observatories
• SDSS: 2,500 publications, 2/3rds by authors not
part of Sloan the consortium
• HST: 700 publications per year, ½ of which are
from archival data. 1,400 on HDF to date.
• CFHT: Mega Cam Super Nova Legacy Survey
• NOAO: to undertake
– Dark Energy Survey on Blanco: large CCD mosaic
camera
– possibly BigBOSS on Mayall: baryon acoustic
oscillation survey using a 4000 fiber spectrograph
Factor 2
Economics
Shifting Investment Strategy
Instruments vs. Telescope
Characteristic Instrument Costs
2.5
Selected Instrument Cost vs. Host Telescope Cost
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
MMIRS
MOSFIRE KIRMOS
GPI
WFMOS LSST Cam
NGAO
ODI
SDSS
DECCAM HETDEX Big BOSS
Cost of Present and Future
Instruments World-wide
From Simons et. al. Survey
Optical
Infrared
Current
$400,000
$3,750,000
Future
$6,600,000
$5,000,000
Factor 3
Sociology
The Vanishing Lone Astronomer
Growth in Research Teams
Author Count for top 100 papers
Summary
Factors that will Flatten
the Astronomical Landscape
• A data enabled research capability fueled by
rapid technology advances which will
democratize access to information;
• Shifting telescope economics that focus new
investment strategies, and
• An evolving trend towards larger highly
multiplexed research teams that cross
institutional and national lines
Observing Programs In A Flat
World
Backup
Current Landscape for US Astronomy
• Global financial crisis focused attention on the
need to invest in science and technology,
including astronomy.
• US Decadal Survey under way. Major issues:
– Revalidating scientific priority of 30 m class
telescope, defining path forward on one or two
such telescopes
– Committing to a new start for Large Survey
Telescope
– Establishing Gemini next generation
instruments
– Providing access to “system” of telescopes
Citation Rate vs. Author Count
Top 100 papers in all of Astro per year: Median # Authors vs. Citation
Ranking
Median # Authors for each Citaiton Group
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
Citation ranks for each year
71-80
81-90
91-100
Opportunity Cost per “Night”
$800
$700
Thousand
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
WIYN
Magellan
HET
MMT
Keck
LBT
Gemini
GSMT
HST
JWST
Evolution in Information Technology
• Aided human eye
– Large information content, low recording rate
• Photographic Plate
– Large information content (1 MB/cm2, ~3 GB/plate)
– Moderate recording rate (QE ~2-4%)
– Analysis and distribution limited
• 2-d photon counting arrays (4kx4k)
–
–
–
–
Large information content (30 – 300 MB)
High recording rate (high QE)
Analysis can be automated
Distribution widespread (tape, CD, internet)
• 3-d energy resolving arrays
– Enormous information content & data rates
– 12k x 12k x 100(l) x 2 Bytes: 100 GB
Paradigm Shift
In Telescope Economics
• For the 100-inch on Mt Wilson the least
expensive item was the photographic plate
(guided by an inexpensive astronomer)
• Over time the cost of the instrument has
slowly risen (e.g. HETDEX on HET, ODI
on WIYN)
• The cost of the telescope is negligible in
highly multiplexed projects (e.g. SDSS)
• Future suggests highly multiplexed, highly
focused, highly expensive instruments.
Contributing Factors
• Scientific Drivers:
– Ultra wide-field surveys which need Giga pixel
CCD mosaic focal planes in the visible
– Fundamental cosmological questions require
the discovery and study of large numbers of
very distant objects shifted into the IR.
– Dust obscured regions at high spatial resolution
• Technical Drivers:
– High cost of IR detectors (available only from
industry)
– High cost of AO
Synergy with HST
Cosmic Discovery
Martin Harwit, 1981
Cosmic Discovery
Martin Harwit, 1981
Cosmic Discovery
Martin Harwit, 1981
Cosmic Discovery
Martin Harwit, 1981