Download - Tajikistan Climate

Climate Risk Management in River Basins
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River basin approach to climate resiliency
Climate hazards affecting river basins in Tajikistan
Assets at risk in river basins Tajikistan
Risk assessment methodology for river basins
Pilot risk assessments in the Pyanj and Vakhsh river
basins
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
River Basin Approach to Climate Resiliency
Objective
Identify sustainable adaptations that
will protect water dependent assets
(communities, infrastructure,
ecosystems) against unfavourable
hydrological changes caused by
climate change
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
River Basins and Sub-Basins
Alexander, please use bright red colour for the sub-basin
boundaries
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Potential Climate Changes and Hazards Affecting River Basins
Climate Change
Higher temperature
Climate Hazard
 Increased melting of snow and glaciers
~ Glacier retreat
~ Glacier surging; glacial lake bursts
~ Increased summer flows initially
~ Reduced summer flows ultimately
 Longer growing season
~ Increased water demand for irrigation
 Increased demand for hydropower for air
conditioning
More rain
 Flash floods
 Reduced water demand for irrigation
Less snow
 Less snowmelt
 Glacier retreat
More evapo-transpiration
 Increased water demand for irrigation
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Assets At Risk in River Basins in Tajikistan
Communities
Infrastructure
Ecosystems
Natural
People
Roads
Glacial
Houses
Bridges
Alpine
Mosques
Factories
Wetland
Schools
River intakes
Savannah
Clinics
Pumping stations
Loess terrace
Markets
Canals and drains
Coniferous forest
Orchards
Flood embankments
Deciduous forest
Vegetable gardens
Dams and reservoirs
High arid plateau
Government offices
Hydropower stations
Man-made
Urban
Pasture
Irrigated crops+trees
Rainfed crops+trees
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Principal Ecosystems in the Pyanj and Vakhsh River Basins
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Towns and Villages in the Pyanj and Vakhsh River Basins
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Main Roads in the Pyanj and Vakhsh River Basins
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Risk Assessment Methodology for River Basins
Definition
Low
(L)
Impact
Medium
(M)
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No loss of life or houses
Minor damage to land and infrastructure
Minor temporary social and economic disruption
Responses include emergency services & minor remedial investments by village and District councils
Total damage less than US$ 100000
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No loss of life
Temporary loss of houses
Significant damage to land and infrastructure
Significant social and economic disruption
Responses include emergency services & substantial remedial investments by village and District councils
with additional support from central Government
Total cost between US$ 100,000 and US$ 1000000
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 Loss of life
 Destruction of houses;
 Destruction of to land and infrastructure
High
 Serious social and economic disruption
Lena,(H)
this table
has already
translated
the
Mid-Term
Report
 Responses
includebeen
national,
provincial andfor
district
emergency
services,
international assistance, & major
Frequency

remedial investments by national Government with international assistance
Total cost greater than US$ 1000000
Low
(L)
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More than 10 years between events
Medium
(M)
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5-10 years between events
High
(H)
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Less than 5 years between events
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Risk = Frequency x Impact
Impact
Frequency
Low
L
Medium
M
High
M
Low
L
LL
Very Low Risk
LM
Low Risk
LH
Medium Risk
Medium
M
ML
Low Risk
MM
Medium Risk
MH
High Risk
High
HL translated forHM
HH
Lena, this table
has already been
the Mid-Term Report
H
Medium Risk
High Risk
Very High Risk
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Pilot Risk Assessments in the Pyanj and Vakhsh River Basins
Based on hazard data and projections provided by:
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Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defence
State Administration for Hydrometeorology
FOCUS
ACTED
Government Ministries
District Councils
Community Leaders
Field visits by the consultants
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Climate Change Risk Indices
Risk Index 1 = Frequency (H, M, L) of Hazard and Impact (H, M, L)
on Asset
Risk Index 2 = % Probability ( >20%, 10-20%, <10%) of Hazard
multiplied by % of total of Asset at risk in basin
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
District Climate Change Risk Assessment using Risk Index 1
Asset
Kulyab District
Dagana Jamoat
Vanch District, Ravand
jamoat
(mudflow)
(mudflow, flash flood,
river flood)
Frequency
Impact
Risk
Frequency
Impact
Risk
Households
H
L
HL
H
M
HM
People
H
L
HL
H
M
HM
Houses
H
L
HL
H
M
HM
Schools
L
L
LL
H
M
HM
Clinics
H
M
HM
H
M
HM
Area ha
H
H
HH
M
M
MM
Power lines km
M
M
MM
H
M
HM
Phone Lines km
M
L
ML
H
L
HL
Hydraulic structures
M
L
ML
M
L
ML
Flood Embankments
km
H
M
HM
H
H
HH
Irrigation canals km
M
M
MM
M
M
MM
M
M
MM
H
H
HH
Bridges
Roads km
M
L
ML
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments
Typical Jamoat Climate Change Risk Assessment using Risk Index 2
District
Farkhor
Dangara
Darvoz
Ishkoshim
Province
Khatlon
Khatlon
GBAO
GBAO
Risk Index 2
%
%
%
%
Agricultural Land
19.2
7.1
1.0
1.0
Flooded Land
24.0
0.2
0.2
1.5
Households
3.8
0.2
0.5
1.7
Houses
8.0
0.5
0.9
2.7
Schools
0.0
0.7
1.8
9.1
Clinics
2.1
1.3
2.6
12.0
Crops Ha
13.1
0.5
0.6
3.9
Power Lines Km
0.0
1.2
3.3
9.7
Telephone Lines Km
0.0
2.9
0.0
11.6
Hydraulic Structures
7.7
6.6
0.5
14.2
Flood Embankments Km
1.6
0.0
3.5
5.6
Irrigation Canals Km
0.7
6.3
1.4
4.7
Bridges
0.4
5.3
2.2
9.3
Roads Km
0.3
2.7
3.2
8.6
People at Risk
9.8
0.6
0.7
2.6
Total Population
5.8
5.5
1.3
1.2
Total Risk Index
5.1
2.1
1.5
6.9
ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments