Download African Agriculture

ISS 330a Social Science Perspectives on Africa
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Professor Rick Bernsten, Department of Agricultural Economics
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(3/21/200)
KEY QUESTIONS
O Why is agriculture important in Sub-Saharan Africa?
What is agricultural development?
What is Sub-Saharan Africa’s food problem?
How well has agriculture performed in Sub-Sahara Africa?
Why has Sub-Saharan Africa’s agricultural sector performed poorly?
What do Sub-Saharan African and developed countries need to do to improve
agriculture?
Prospects for the future?
GENERALIZATIONS ARE DANGEROUS!
O Sub-Saharan Africa is very agriculturally, environmentally, socially, politically diverse
O All generalizations have exceptions
O All of the following generalizations do NOT apply to any single country!!
O Each country must be analyzed as a CASE STUDY to understand the causes of its agricultural
development successes and failures
I. Why Is Agriculture Important In Sub-Saharan Africa?
Overall economy
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Major source of employment
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Major share of GDP
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Major source of export earnings
Rural population: most people (50-90%) live in rural areas, depend on agriculture for
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Food–produce crops for own household
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Cash–sell surplus food crops and cash crops to generate cash income
Urban population: growing rapidly due to rural-urban migration
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Need inexpensive food
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Food prices affect industrial wage rates, inflation rate
II. What Is Agricultural Development?
o Economic transformation (historical process):
Gradual shift in the economy characterized by a decline in the importance of agriculture
as a percent of GDP and employment
o Long term goal:
Reduce the importance of agriculture
Increase the importance of manufacturing, services sectors
o Paradox:
Must first increase agricultural productivity in order to transform the economy into a
manufacturing/service based economy
Can’t just “industrialize now”
Agricultural development is a “precondition” for overall development:
The “ENGINE” of development
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Development (def.) creating the conditions for the realization of human potential
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Increase GDP/capita (income)
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Increase quality of life, access to education, health, food, political freedom, etc.
o The challenge: Most countries w/large agric population, rapid population growth
III. What Is Sub-Saharan Africa’s Food Problem?
o Famine?
(def.) acute food shortages resulting in widespread loss of life
(Figure: deaths)
Causes:
The “trigger/agent”: floods, drought, pest infestation, war => food shortages
The “real” cause: human/political failure to provide food to the affected people
(Examples: Sudan, Somalia, North Korea etc.)
Incidence: decreasing problem (domestic/international relief efforts) (Figure: FEWS)
(Figure: Food Aid)
o Hunger/malnutrition?
(def.) chronic food shortage (calories and/or protein) that reduces peoples ability to work productively,
can cause retardation in children
Cause:
Primary cause: poverty, lack of income to purchase food on the market
Contributing causes:
discrimination (women, minorities), environmental stress,
low agricultural productivity (yields)
Incidence:
1/3 Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is hungry
(Figure)
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Food Security
(def.) ability to acquire a nutritionally adequate diet throughout the year by:
Producing own food: farmers
Buying food: rural non-farm, urban workers
Transfers:
food aid from own government, international community
o Supply and Demand for Food
Demand factors:
o Population increase
o Income increase
o Changing consumption patterns
Supply factors:
o Increasing in land area farmed (historical strategy)
o Increase in output/yield per hectare (modern strategy)
Example:
Population growth (P):
3.0%
(Doubling time=22 years)
Income growth (Y):
2.0%
Income elasticity of demand (E):
0.7%
Annual increase in demand: 4.4%
 D = %  P + ((% Y) (E))
Historically in the U.S. : 1-2 %/year increase in food production
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Indicators of agricultural development:
Success: increasing food/capita ==> declining domestic food prices (U.S., Europe)
Failure: decreasing food/capita ==> rising domestic food prices
IV. How Well Has Agriculture Performed In Sub-Saharan Africa?
o Types of farming systems (crops & livestock) in Sub-Saharan Africa
Subsistence (disappearing): labor intensive, purchase no inputs, consume all of harvest
Semi-Substance (most common): labor intensive, purchase some inputs (fertilizer, insecticides,
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seed), market some of harvest (good years) (Figure)
Commercial/market oriented (small but growing): purchase yield-increasing inputs, sell most
of output
o Key crops in Sub-Saharan Africa
Importance of crop varies by region/environment (Figure)
Grains (calories)
o Corn (semi-arid areas)
(Figure)
o Sorghum/millet (arid areas)
(Figure)
o Rice (wet areas)
Legumes (protein)
o Groundnuts/peanuts
(Figure)
o Cowpeas (black-eyed peas)
Tubers (calories)
o Cassava (Figure)
o Yams (Figure)
Export crops (earn foreign exchange)
o Coffee (highland areas)
o Cacao (chocolate)
o Oil palm (Palmolive soap)
o Tea (highland areas)
o Experiences since 1960: both success and failure
Success in increasing total food (grain) production
(Figure)
Failure in increasing per capita food (grain) production
(Figure)
Low cereal yields/slow rate of yield increases
(Figure)
But Some countries have done better than others (Why?)
V. Why Has Sub-Saharan Africa’s Agriculture Performed Poorly?
Many interdependent factors!!
o Colonial History
Neglected food crop improvement, focused on export-crops for Europe
Failed to train local agricultural scientists
o Harsh physical environment
Rainfall: limited in 2/3 of continent, highly seasonal (3-5 months)
Soils: old, poor quality/low fertility, soil prone to erosion (heavy rains)
Warm weather: high evaporation rate, insect & diseases
Diverse ecosystems: crop technology needed for many different niches (Figure)
(new varieties, crop recommendations)
Tsetse fly: 20% of land uninhabitable, limits cattle production
re)
o Limited physical infrastructure
Poor quality roads: hard/expensive to deliver inputs/market crops
Shortage of transport vehicles: limited stock makes marketing difficult/expensive
o Underdeveloped social capital
High illiteracy: farmers can’t read instructions (insecticides/ fertilizers labels)
Low education level: farmers have minimal knowledge of scientific agriculture
Weak health systems: human productivity reduced by diseases (malaria, AIDS)
o Weak supporting institutions
Agricultural research:
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Little ir
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Underfunded, so slow to develop new agricultural technologies
Agricultural extension:
Poorly trained/short of vehicles, so can’t assist farmers
Most farmers are women, most extension agents are men
Agricultural credit:
Often not available to small farmers/women farmers
Crop marketing:
Inefficient government parastatals, offer farmers low/fixed prices
Control marketing (farmer must sell crops to the government)
Farmer Organizations:
Weak, minimal influence on government’s agricultural policies
Domestic political/policy factors
Wars/conflicts:
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Disrupts agricultural production (Zimbabwe–production increased 20% at end of war for
Independence)
o Drains resources from investments in agriculture
One -Party States/corruption:
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Not responsive to needs of the people
Misguided economic policies: government interventions distorted the economy
o Emphasized industrialization over agriculture
o Taxed agriculture (export taxes) to generate government revenue
o Overvalued currency: made imports cheap, exports expensive (reduced demand)
o Discouraged private enterprise (capitalism is bad!)
External factors
Declining & unstable commodity prices:
o Many countries dependant on a few export crops/minerals for foreign exchange
o Declining world prices for Africa’s export crops, prices vary greatly from
year-to-year
Heavy debt burden:
o Debt repayment drains resources from investing in agriculture, etc.
Declining development assistance (foreign aid):
o US/Europe reducing total aid (“donor fatigue”) (Figure)
o US aid declining, especially for agriculture
(Figure, Figure)
o US aid small ($55capita) , compared to other developed countries
What Do Sub-Saharan African and Developed Countries Need To Do To Improve
Agriculture?
African Countries
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The African farmer: a victim of circumstance
“Poor but efficient”: uses available resources in “best” possible way
Limited by constraints: poor policies, lack of new technologies, harsh environment, etc.
Uses traditional technology, but need science-based yield-increasing technologies
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Continue policy reforms (“structural adjustment”)
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Invest in people and institutions (especially agricultural research and extension)
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Give greater priority to agriculture (Uganda, Ghana, Mali)
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Promote peace and reconciliation (South Africa)
Developed Countries
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Debt relief: Should forgive debt of the poorest nations
Development assistance: Should give more aid to countries which make policy
reforms, especially focusing on the agricultural sector
(US aid now only $55 per capita, 0.02 % of GDP, <1% of US federal budget)
VI.
Prospects For
Guardedly optimistic
Population: recent evidence of fertility decline, Population Bomb predicted catastrophe but
didn’t happen
Policy Reforms: will stimulate investment, expand exports, create jobs, Asian Drama: Doom and
gloom for India in the 1960s didn’t happen
Democracy/Governance: trend towards more open political systems
Debt relief/foreign id: growing recognition of need for some debt, but prospects for more aid
are uncertain
Agriculture: growing recognition of key role of agriculture
Institutions: NGO’s are making a contributions to strengthening local organizations
Uncertainties?
Civil unrest: poverty, resource degradation may fuel conflicts
Globalization/free trade: impact unclear, Sub-Saharan Africa may find it difficult to compete in
an opener world economy
Physical & social infrastructure: Sub-Saharan Africa may find it difficult to make the needed
investments, AIDS pandemic will have a devastating impact on economies
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