Document related concepts

Statistics wikipedia, lookup

History of statistics wikipedia, lookup

Ars Conjectandi wikipedia, lookup

Probability interpretations wikipedia, lookup

Probability wikipedia, lookup

Transcript
```PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Chapter 5
Outline




Section 5-1: Expected Value
Section 5-2: Binomial Distribution
Section 5-3: Poisson Distribution (OMIT)
Section 5-4: Hypergeometric Distribution (OMIT)
Introduction
Overview


This chapter will deal with the construction of
probability distributions by combining methods of
descriptive statistics from Chapters 2 and 3 and
those of probability presented in Chapter 4.
A probability distribution, in general, will describe
what will probably happen instead of what actually
did happen
Combining Descriptive Methods
and Probabilities
In this chapter we will construct probability distributions by presenting possible outcomes
along with the relative frequencies we expect.
Why do we need probability
distributions?

Many decisions in business, insurance, and other
real-life situations are made by assigning
probabilities to all possible outcomes pertaining to
the situation and then evaluating the results
 Saleswoman
can compute probability that she will
make 0, 1, 2, or 3 or more sales in a single day. Then,
she would be able to compute the average number of
sales she makes per week, and if she is working on
commission, she will be able to approximate her weekly
income over a period of time.
 An investor wants to compare the risks of two different
stock options for his portfolio
Probability Distributions
Remember

From Chapter 1, a
variable is a
characteristic or
attribute that can
assume different
values
 Represented
by
various letters of the
alphabet

From Chapter 1, a
random variable is a
variable whose values
are determined by
chance
 Typically
assume
values of 0,1,2…n
Remember
Discrete Variables (Data)—
Chapter 5



Can be assigned values
such as 0, 1, 2, 3
“Countable”
Examples:
Number of children
 Number of credit cards
by switchboard
 Number of students
Continuous Variables (Data)--Chapter 6





Can assume an infinite number
of values between any two
specific values
Obtained by measuring
Often include fractions and
decimals
Examples:




Temperature
Height
Weight
Time
Examples: State whether the variable
is discrete or continuous
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
The height of a randomly selected giraffe living in
Kenya
The number of bald eagles located in New York State
The exact time it takes to evaluate 27 + 72
The number of textbook authors now sitting at a
computer
The exact life span of a kitten
The number of statistics students now reading a book
The weight of a feather
Discrete Probability Distribution




Consists of the values a random variable can assume
and the corresponding probabilities of the values.
The probabilities are determined theoretically or by
observation
Can be shown by using a graph (probability histogram),
table, or formula
Two requirements:
The probability of each event in the sample space must be
between or equal to 0 and 1. That is, 0 < P(x) < 1
 The sum of the probabilities of all the events in the sample
space must equal 1; that is, SP(x) = 1

Example: Determine whether the distribution
represents a probability distribution. If it does not,
state why.
8)
9)
x
3
6
8
12
x
1
2
3
4
5
P(x)
0.3
0.5
0.7
-0.8
P(x)
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
Example: Determine whether the distribution
represents a probability distribution. If it does not,
state why.
10)
A researcher reports
that when groups of
four children are
randomly selected
from a population of
couples meeting
certain criteria, the
probability distribution
for the number of girls
is given in the
accompanying table
x
P(x)
0
0.502
1
0.365
2
0.098
3
0.011
4
0.001
Section 5.1 Expected Value
Objective: Calculate the expected value of a
probability distribution

Once we know that a probability distribution exist,
we can describe it using various descriptive statistics
 Visually
using a graph, table, or formula
 Algebraically, we can find the mean, variance, and
standard deviation
Mean of a general discrete
probability distribution
m  Sxp( x)  x1  p( x1 )  x2  p( x2 )  ...xn  p( xn )
m= population mean since ALL possible values are
considered
Mean is also known as “Expected Value”
Mean should be rounded to one more decimal place
than the outcome x. Always simplify fractions
Variance & standard deviation
 2   ( x 2  p( x))  m 2
Variance

( ( x
2
p( x ))  m 2
Standard Deviation

Example –Use table on example 9 to find
mean and standard deviation
x
1
2
3
4
5
P(x)
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
Assignment
Worksheet ---Section 5.1
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
Continuous
Discrete
Continuous
Discrete
Continuous
Discrete
Continuous
This is not a probability distribution because one
of the probabilities is negative (is not between 0
and 1)

```