Download human capital and migration costs for romanian economic

HUMAN CAPITAL AND MIGRATION COSTS FOR ROMANIAN
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Laura Diaconu, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, “Alexandru
Ioan Cuza” University of Iaşi, 22 Carol I Avenue, 700505 Iaşi, Romania, tel.:
+40.723.30.27.28, email: [email protected]
Andrei Maxim, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, “Alexandru Ioan
Cuza” University of Iaşi, 22 Carol I Avenue, 700505 Iaşi, Romania,
tel.:+40.722.89.75..82, email: [email protected]
Cristian C. Popescu, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration,
“Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iaşi, 22 Carol I Avenue, 700505 Iaşi, Romania,
tel.: +40.232.20.13.99, email: [email protected]
JEL CLASSIFICATION: O15
Key words: migration, public costs, economic growth, human capital accumulation
1. Introduction
Human capital is one of the most important factors of production, deeply
influencing the productivity of all the others. Despite this, the economic research has
hardly included it into its analysis, initially considering only the labor force, although
some features related to the human abilities and their influence on the productivity
were highlighted from the very beginning of the economic literature (19, 1984, p.
274-355). Later, in the second half of the XXth century, when the new growth theories
emerged, the importance of the human capital was reconsidered so that, nowadays, it
is estimated to be the only factor that can induce continuously growing returns. The
‘90s brought a more detailed approach of the human capital stock and of its impact on
the economic growth (1, 1996, p. 1-43; 2, 1993, p. 363-394; 9, 1999, p. 83-116; 10,
1995, p. 65-93; etc). Private and public efforts related to education or to healthcare
directly influence the economic growth rates and therefore, the “drain” of human
capital through emigration involves high costs that reduce the productive capacity of
the home country.
The migration of labor force is one of the most important vectors of the
globalization process. This phenomenon is deeply analyzed in the economic theory,
usually being debated form different points of view. As main directions, there are, on
one hand, the classical studies that reveal the advantages of the receiving countries
and the disadvantages of the home countries, and on the other hand, some recent
studies that note the benefic effects for all those involved into the process of free
movement of labor force.
A common aspect for the two tendencies is given by the idea that the regions
which generate the greatest number of emigrants are the less and medium developed
ones, generally with young population that has slight opportunities in its own
economy. Indeed, it is obvious that the migration mainly takes place between the
developing countries and the developed ones, but also among or within the developing
states, from rural to urban areas. The literature mentions three main causes for
migration: the aging of rich countries’ population, the developing technologies that
require a larger number of high-skilled persons and the increasing focus of
immigration policies of industrialized countries on “quality of human capital”.
It is foreseen that in the next years, the migration flows will increase due to the
growing competition and to the fact that the governments will be forced to reduce
some of the restrictions regarding the immigrants so that the national firms get the
competitive advantage of the cheap and easy access to different kinds of abilities and
knowledge. This will probably impact the poor and the developing countries that will
mainly be affected from the institutional point of view: “the potential constructors –
workers or managers – are much more tempted to leave when the institutional system
gets worse” (15, 2005, p. 1-8). Despite all the short term difficulties generated by the
emigrants to their origin countries, on long term they may contribute to the growth of
the national welfare, investing at home the money earned outside and acting as
international entrepreneurs or even creating links between national and international
social networks. Beine, Docquier and Rapoport (3, 2001, p. 275-289), analyzing the
relationship between human capital and economic growth in developing countries,
consider that the “drain effect” of the human capital may be positive only if these
states, promoting an open economy, will sufficiently increase the investments in
education – “brain effect”. Consequently, it can be noted that the winners of this
process will not be only the emigrants and the host country, but also the home state if
the emigrants return.
In Romania, the beginnings of the migration process were marked by the
abandonment of the strict emigration control from the communist period, moment
when the country became a very complex “migration field” (11, 2002). There are
multiple factors that foster emigration but the most important one is the welfare gap –
an economic growth gap of 10% causes an emigration rate of 0,05% of population (5,
2005, p. 133). As a result, the EU member states feared that after the accession of
Romania to the European Union, their markets will be invaded by Romanian labor
force. If we analyze the situation of emigration from previous years, we may conclude
that this fear is justified: despite the fact that in previous years there were severe
barriers for the emigrants to the European Union, due to the compulsoriness of visas
and working passes, Romania and Poland were the only Eastern and Central European
countries that have had a positive flow of emigration to the EU (16, 2000, p. 5-12).
Moreover, it is foreseen that in the future, the emigration process will probably
increase, because apart from those that are not satisfied with their salary, a large
number of persons that do not have a job or work in the underground economy will
emigrate. Taking into consideration the negative growth rate of the population,
various analysts argue that if the migration trend remains unchanged, in less than 40
years the total Romanian population will decrease with 6 millions (20, 2000, p. 2334).
2. Migration Trends in Romania
In Romania, after 1989, the migration trends have had some particular
features, influenced not only by the national economic and social climate, but also by
the characteristics of the international context. Therefore, we note the fact that,
especially between 1990 and 1995, the migration configuration has changed: if at the
beginning of the analyzed period the migration was dominated by the ethnic
component, the circulatory oscillating migration gradually appeared, especially from
the rural areas and often characterized by a strong informal component.
From the point of view of the socio-economic characteristics of the Romanian
people that emigrated between 1995 and 2005, the literature argues that the young
persons were more tempted to migrate. Actually, the emigration included persons
from a particular age category: between adolescence and the beginning of the
professional career. So, more than a third of the Romanian emigrants were under 25
years old. If we add those between 25 and 29, we obtain more than half of the total
permanent emigrants of Romania1. One of the most important features of the potential
emigrants is their educational level: while the percentage of the high-school and
university graduates usually surpassed the national average, the Romanian permanent
emigrants who had graduated the economic secondary and tertiary education were
almost half of the total number of emigrants. Compared to these, the emigrants with
professional education were less than 10% of the total number of emigrants, in the
analyzed period.
We argue that the Romanian emigration has to be analyzed especially
considering the departure period: temporary or forever. In the case of the definitive
emigration, the trend is continually descendent (13, 2007), mainly as a result of the
equalization of incomes of those with university and post-university studies that were
tempted to emigrate and those from abroad with similar studies. Consequently, if in
1998 Romania was on the top of the list of Central and Eastern European countries
regarding the permanent emigration, nowadays, most of the Romanian people want to
emigrate only on a medium term.
From the point of view of the emigrants’ profile, grouped by gender, we notice
that during the last years, the most representative category is given by the young men,
aged between 18 and 35 years old, with a medium education, especially coming from
big cities, including Bucharest (see Table no 1).
Table no 1. The number of Romanian emigrants, grouped by gender and regions,
between 2004 and 2005
Region
North-East
2004
2005
South-East
2004
2005
South
2004
2005
South-West
2004
2005
West
2004
2005
North-West
2004
2005
Centre
Total
Men
Women
1853
1852
767
734
1086
1118
1039
1160
401
477
638
683
578
453
206
168
372
285
589
488
251
182
338
306
1738
1418
596
479
1142
939
2270
1595
927
611
1343
984
IER, Pais Nr.1: Libera circulaţie a persoanelor şi serviciilor, 2005, site:
http://www.ier.ro/PAIS/PAIS1/RO/Studiul1B.pdf
1
2004
2005
Bucharest
2004
2005
2958
2164
1033
749
1925
1415
2057
1808
753
710
1304
1098
Source: INS, International migration, according to gender, 2007, site:
http://www.insse.ro/cms/files/statistici/Statistici_teritoriale2007/rom/9.htm
According to the destinations preferred by the Romanian emigrants, it was
noted that there are many factors that influence the territorial distribution of
migration. Consequently, the differences in the income levels and in the economic
opportunities, the ethnic factors, the regional characteristics, the political regulations,
the geographical location and the distance to the potential destinations are considered
to be aspects that have fostered or discouraged the migration. The Table n o 2 shows
the favorite destinations of the Romanian emigrants, according to the region where
they come from.
Table no 2. The percentage of the Romanian emigrants, by countries, according to
regions, in 2001
Moldavia
Muntenia
Dobrogea
Oltenia
Crisana
Transilvania
Banat
Bucharest
Italy
36
10
23
19
12
4
Spain
2
12
4
2
5
6
France
0
2
1
1
11
1
Germany
5
9
2
13
25
34
Austria
0
0
1
1
3
1
Israel
8
11
10
5
1
1
Greece
5
4
7
9
1
1
Turkey
8
14
23
2
0
0
Yugoslavia
3
3
2
17
0
0
Hungary
4
1
0
1
10
37
Others
28
35
27
29
31
16
6
8
6
6
4
6
48
20
4
0
0
3
1
2
0
7
1
0
1
1
29
48
Source: Diminescu, D. (ed.), Visibles mais peu nombreux... Les circulations
migratoires roumaines apres 1989, forthcomming Editions de la Maison de Sciences
de l’Homme, Paris, 2002
It is obvious that the Romanian emigrants are mostly attracted by Italy and
Germany, followed by Spain, Turkey, Israel and Greece. Indeed, one of the most
detailed reports about the East-West migration flows, drawn up for the European
Commission in 2000 by Boeri and Brucker (4, 2000, p. 122), demonstrates the fact
that the Eastern and Central European states that mostly contributed to the annual
growth of the number of residents in Germany, until 2000, are Romania and Poland.
Despite this, the data shows that the number of the Romanians is decreasing, the rate
of their reduction being faster and faster (see Table no 3).
Table no 3. The annual growth of the number of residents from the ECE in Germany
(in numbers)
Bulgaria
Czech Rep.
Estonia
Hungary
Leetonia
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
TOTAL
2002
22812
11024
3991
16129
8309
12210
66301
66516
9825
1313
218430
2003
20592
9990
3614
14520
7511
11084
60146
60226
8932
1186
197801
2004
18564
9044
3270
13051
6782
10055
54521
54477
8116
1069
178949
2005
16711
8180
2955
11709
6115
9113
49381
49223
7370
963
161720
2010
9606
4860
1746
6573
3556
5490
29693
29035
4493
556
95560
2015
5128
2755
981
3348
1940
3189
17149
16255
2676
300
53721
2020
2337
1434
500
1349
929
1738
9319
8238
1526
140
27510
2025
626
614
202
134
306
833
4479
3275
808
43
11320
2030
-396
116
22
-581
-70
277
1553
265
368
-15
1539
Source: Boeri, T., Brucker, H., The Impact of Eastern Enlargement on
Employment and Labour Markets, European Integration Consortium, Report on
behalf of the Employment and Social Affaires Directorate General of the European
Commission, Berlin & Milan, 2000
3. The Public Costs of the Romanian Labor Force Emigration
In a world of perfect competition, with free mobility of labor force, we can
talk about equilibrium: those who emigrate will receive higher incomes, natives in the
receiving countries can share the immigration surplus and the remaining residents in
the sending countries can benefit from the rise in the land/labor and capital/labor
ratios. In the Romanian reality, this does not happen because the highly-skilled
emigrants generate a number of externalities.
First of all, they are net contributors to the government budget and therefore
their departure increases the fiscal burden on those left behind. If we consider that
only in 2004 the official number of those who emigrated from Romania was about
13.100 persons – while the real number is almost five times bigger - we can partly
justify the doubling of the direct and indirect taxes between 2000-2004 (if in 2000 the
direct taxes were 31.472 billions ROL, and the indirect ones 96.131 billions ROL, in
2004 their levels were about 75.854 billions ROL and 226.673 billions ROL,
respectively).
Secondly, skilled and unskilled labor force complement one another in the
production process; in a context of scarcity of skilled labor and abundant unskilled
labor – as it may happen if many of the high skilled Romanian people emigrate –
skilled labor migration may have a substantial negative impact on the productivity and
wages of low skilled workers, increasing in this way the domestic inequality.
Thirdly, human capital depletion through emigration seems to have a negative
influence on a country’s growth perspectives because human capital accumulation is
considered to be a central engine of economic development. From this point of view,
there will be losses not only in the productivity level and, implicitly, in the GDP, but
also in the possibility of innovation and accommodation to the new technologies. It is
estimated that starting with 1989, Romania has lost between 2 and 2,5 millions of the
active labor force, meaning almost 10% of the total population. The emigration
consequences on the innovation process are very important if we consider the fact that
58% of those who emigrated were high-school and post-high-school graduates. The
data provided by the Romania’s Statistical Yearbook underline the same idea: the
number of the Romanian researchers is continuously decreasing. If in 1989 there were
more than 150.000 researchers in Romania, in 2002 the official statistics were
mentioning only 38.443 employees in the research field2. The reduction of the number
of researchers is mainly explained by the fact that many of the researchers or of the
young people that want to follow a scientific career choose to emigrate. It is
surprisingly that 64% of the total number of the Romanian researchers with relevant
results at international level works in a foreign country, most of them in the USA
(29%), France (7%), Canada, Germany and United Kingdom (5%).
Apart from the negative influence on innovation and economic progress, the
emigration of the high skilled workers generates material losses such as public costs
with the education and training of human capital. In Romania, in the last years, there
was an ascending trend of the public spending with education: if in 2002 these were
12.633 billions ROL, in 2004 their value was about 19.358 billions ROL3 (almost 3%
of GDP). Researches about the Romanian education system underline the fact that in
most of the Moldavia region and in the South of the country, where the economic
development is lower, the average spending per student is lower. So, districts like
Botoşani, Galaţi, Vaslui, Giurgiu, Călăraşi or Ialomiţa are characterized by lower
costs per student, compared to Bucharest and to the districts from the Central and
Western part of the country (Cluj, Timiş, Bihor). If we consider that the total number
of emigrants from the developed areas is higher then the number of those from the rest
of the regions – in 2005, for example, in Bucharest, next to the Centre, North-West
and West part of the country, there were 6.985 official emigrants (13, 2007),
2
3
Anuarul Statistic al României, 2003, http://www.insse.ro/anuar_2003/asr2003.htm
INS, Cap. 21: Finante, 2005, http://www.insse.ro/cms/files/pdf/ro/cap21.pdf
compared to only 3.953 official emigrants from the North-East, South-East, SouthWest and South – we may say that the losses with education are considerable for the
Romanian state.
As demonstrated in various new geography frameworks, skilled labor force is
essential in attracting foreign direct investments and fostering research and
development expenditures (8, 1999, p. 14-21). In the case of Romania, the foreign
direct investments represented an engine of the economic growth. Between 2001 and
2006, in Romania almost 26 billion dollars entered as foreign direct investments, the
business men being attracted by the low cost of high skilled labor force. But, the labor
force crisis, from various fields, which occurred mainly after the Romanian adhesion
to the European Union, may affect the foreign investors because the migration raises
the income pressure. Consequently, Romania will become less attractive for these
investors, fact that may generate a slowness of the economic growth.4
4. Case Study –The Impact of Migration on a Romanian Knitting Factory
Marcroman SNK is a knitting factory from Iasi, Romania, established in 1999.
Today, it has only 50 employees and its lohn production is mainly directed to the
export. The clients are generally from France, Spain, Germany or United Kingdom. A
small part of the production is sold in a private store, under a private label.
When this factory entered the market, the Romanian textile industry was in a
boom period. This development was mainly due to the cheap labor force that
influenced the external demand for production in lohn system. In 2004, 73,4% from
the Romanian textile industry production was exported.
Yet, after 2005, the textile industry experienced a descending trend, which is
likely to be maintained over the next few years. The main factors that induce this
change are the national currency appreciation related to Euro (with almost 18%
between 2004 and 2007), the cancellation of the quantitative restrictions imposed to
China and the growth of the production costs. There has been a continuous raise in the
prices of utilities and incomes of the workers. Therefore, due to the fact that the
Romanian textile industry looses its main strong point – cheap and abundant labor
Rusu, T., Exodul forţei de muncă încetineşte creşterea economică, Săptămâna Financiară, An III, Nr.
130, oct. 2007, p. 48, 52
4
force – the Western European companies have already started to relocate their
production to the former Soviet states or to China.
In the case of Macroman SNK, the salaries are the main component of the
production cost. The permanent increase in the level of the minimum legal income
and in the employees’ new demands regarding the remuneration and other benefits
strongly influenced the costs. Gradually, the firm could not respond to the demands of
those clients that wanted very low prices for the delivered products.
Another phenomenon that has lately amplified, especially after the Romania’s
adhesion to the European Union, is the migration of the labor force. If in 2006 the
firm had 70 employees, nowadays it has only 50 and it is impossible to hire new
persons.
In 2007, in the region of Iasi there are 4 other knitting manufacturers,
compared to 7 in 2006. Some of the firms did not succeed in adapting to the new
realities and, consequently, they were forced to stop their activity. The remaining ones
hoped for an increase in the available labor force, but, despite the expectations, this
increase was only on short term.
The situation of Macroman SNK – related to the important decrease of the
number of the employees and to the impossibility to attract new ones –, together with
the discussions between the managers and those employees that want to leave the
firm, reveal the great proportion of the migration trend among the low skilled persons,
with low incomes. No matter the age, these employees go to the European states
where they may earn considerable higher incomes if they do unqualified work,
eventually without having legal forms. Most of them are influenced by relatives or
friends that are already working in a foreign country. In the case of highly qualified
employees, like engineers, the phenomenon is much more limited. Yet, they prefer
going to other regions of the country, where they have chances to earn a higher
income, or reorienting to other fields of activity.
Under these circumstances, the Macroman SNK strategy is now focused on
reducing the produced quantities and on fostering more complex products, with a
higher quality, for which it can obtain a better price. The older technologies, used by
some competitors from inside or outside the country, make the adaptation of the
production structure for a new product be difficult. Such an adaptation is costeffective only in the case of large orders. The investments in modern technologies and
its small dimension enable Macroman SNK to meet the demand for small quantities of
complex products.
Although the production is still focused mainly on the lohn exports, the firm
wants to develop new collections, under a private label. This new development
strategy involves the implementation of a design department and the adoption of new
business processes. But on long term, the firm could have high profits if it no longer
depends on the lohn system and if it starts selling its own products on the European
Union market.
5. The Effects of Migration on the Macro-Stability
In free economies, the demand meets the offer on the market. The same thing
happens on the labor market: its self-adjustment mechanism involves a certain rate of
employment and a certain equilibrium income. When the offer of labor force reduces,
and the level of demand is stable, the labor price rises. If this offer is not correlated to
an increase of the productivity, the negative effects will influence the economic
performance indicators and the macro-stability. The rise of incomes, without
simultaneous improvements in productivity, generates, first of all, an increase in the
unitary costs and consequently, a high pressure on the final price of the product. First
signs of inflation are correlated to a surplus of money, caused by an increase in the
level of income. The two vectors together determine an inflationist trend, which is
very dangerous for economy because it may foster the so-called inflationist spiral5
that is difficult to eliminate even on long term.
The fast Romanian emigration process of the post-communist period,
correlated to a negative birth rate, determined a continuous diminishing of the labor
force offer. This involved, through the mechanism explained above, an important
growth in the labor cost. The growth coefficient of net average earnings per economy
between January 1990 and June 2007, was 3465, 45 (13, 2007). However, due to the
strong devaluation of the national currency, the numbers are not very relevant;
consequently, we demonstrate the facts with the help of shorter term evolutions.
Considering the year 2000 as a bench-mark, the costs with labor force have increased
by 414,556 up to the end of the second semester of 2007 (in industry, constructions
and services). We have to mention that this was the most dynamic period from the
5
Friedman, M, The Role of Monetary Policy: Presidential Address to AEA, AER, 1968
migration point of view. This fast growth considerably reduced the competitive
advantages of Romania. The negative results came soon after. The most significant
ones can be noticed in the foreign direct investments flow, which is expected to
diminish more than 30% in 2007 compared to 2006.
One of the strongest trumps of Romania, in the global relocation process of the
industries, was the low price of labor force and the relative abundant and high skilled
labor market. The real growth rate of the incomes, which resulted from the nominal
increase and from the national currency appreciation, was about 30% between June
2006 and June 2007, while the growth of the productivity was much slower – under
10%.
Table no 4. The nominal income growth between 1991 and 2006 (ROL)
Year
Amount in
December
1991
14771
1993
131742
1995
374183
1997
1265671
1999
2559796
2001
5299736
2003
8068932
2005
11210000
2006
14810000
Source: INS, Population income, expenditure and consumption, 2007, site:
http://www.insse.ro/cms/rw/pages/index.ro.do
Unfortunately, these characteristics of the internal market started to disappear
under the pressure of the income growth and of the diminishing number of workers,
which were tempted to go to the developed countries, in order to find a better paid
job. At the same time, the growth of the incomes induced a high pressure on the
inflation rate, changing the foresights for 2007. If the foreseen rate was under 4%, we
might expect that it rises at the end of the year. If the income pressure continues,
without an improvement in the labor productivity, the Romanian economy risks
entering into an inflationist spiral, similar to that of the ‘90s. Nowadays, according to
Eurostat, Romania is situated at the end of the list of the European countries – at last
but one place, concerning the labor productivity. At the end of 2005, the labor
productivity per worker was 39,5% of the average of EU 25; at the same time, in
Luxembourg this percentage was about 160,8%, in Belgium 128,1% and in Ireland
126,77%.
A factor that negatively influences the slow evolution of the productivity is the
low competition of the labor market. The reasons are correlated not only to the
economic activity intensification, as a consequence of a favorable international
conjuncture and of an attractive internal environment, but also to the diminishing of
the number of workers with more than 10% in less than 10 years, due to the reduction
of the active population. This phenomenon was favorably influenced mainly by the
gradual free movement of persons, especially in the European Union, and by the
increased demand of labor force in the developed countries, such as Italy, France,
Spain and United Kingdom. There are economic branches like constructions where
the demand for skilled workers is considerably higher than the offer. The
unemployment rate was 3,8% in July 2007, very closed to the natural rate of
unemployment. Under these circumstances, we might expect, for the next period, that
the incomes will continue to rise, due to the lack of labor force, and that the pressure
on the growth of productivity will be feebler and feebler.
Figure no 1: The foreseen evolution of the total population and of the occupied
population until 2014
Conclusions
As noted in the graphic made by the Economic Forecast Institute (figure n o 1),
it is estimated that until 2014, the Romanian population will raise up to 21,1 millions
inhabitants, which means that it will be 1 million less than nowadays. This forecast
considers not only the negative birth rate but also the emigration process. We might
expect that, on age categories, the most significant reduction is that of the young
population which is more tempted to emigrate. This aspect may negatively influence
the economic growth rate. There are also chances that this situation improves if the
per hour income, which was only 2 euro in July 2007, will rise enough to be attractive
for the immigrants from countries such as Republic of Moldavia, China or Middle
East. This equilibrium is possible to be achieved only for the low and medium skilled
workers because the developed countries compete for attracting the high skilled
workers. Consequently, we fear that, in the future, Romania might be forced to direct
the productive structure to low and medium technological branches, which do not
bring real competitive advantages on the international markets.
The public policies may have an important role in stopping this impressive
emigration process. Creating facilities for the educated young persons, offering
subventions to firms that hire and maintain, for a certain period of time, the university
graduates, paying higher attention to young families, etc, are just a few methods that
might determine young, high skilled persons to remain in the country. Of course, this
involves some high present costs. But we have to analyze them in terms of
opportunity cost: what we loose now compared to what we gain in future. Placing
Romania in the context of the European and global economy depends on the human
capital stock that the country will succeed to create and maintain. The great mobility
of the people makes a country’s human capital stock volatile, correlated to the
economic stability and to the welfare state. Yet, the volatility still rests lower than in
the case of the financial capital. This is why we may assume that investing in human
capital is more stable and has a higher return than attracting foreign capitals. The
human capital is a huge magnet for the foreign firms which decide to relocate their
production according to the abundance of the high skilled labor force from a certain
region. Consequently, it is not necessary to look for the foreign financial capital in
order to bring it inside the economy because it will come by itself when there are
favorable conditions for high profit. The high productivities, the low costs and the
abundance of the specialists are favorable arguments for profit.
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