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ISSN 1818-4510 Belarusian Economic Journal Quarterly scientific and practical journal Published since 1997 No 4 ● 2015 RESUME CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES, METHODS, AND INSTRUMENTS OF CLUSTER POLICIES IN BELARUS AND POLAND: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS Ludmila Nekhorosheva1, Edward Hoscilowicz2 Authors affiliation: 1 Belarus State Economic University (Minsk, Belarus); 2 University of Finance and Management in Bialystok (Bialystok, Poland). Corresponding author: Ludmila Nekhorosheva ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The article considers a new philosophy as well as new approaches, models, and techniques of making decisions concerning concept formation and development of innovative industrial clusters in the context of Belarus’s and Poland’s industrial policies. Researched are the main issues and directions of establishing and developing innovative industrial clusters in the Republic of Belarus based on the experiences of Poland and other foreign countries, as well as prospects of forming high tech clusters in conditions of the “new economy”. KEYWORDS: cluster, economic development, innovative industrial clusters, industrial policy, global economic development trends, cluster policy, support instruments of clusters. JEL-code: F63, L78, L88, O25, O31, O38, P13, R11, R58. Received 17.07.2015 GENDER FACTORS OF BELARUS’S ECONOMY’S GROWTH Кirill Rudy Author affiliation: Administration of the President of Republic of Belarus (Minsk, Belarus). Corresponding author: Kirill Rudy ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The state of Belarus’s economy keeps up to date the search of all possible reserves of its growth. The article focuses on the social-economic aspects of gender inequality on labor market. Analyzed are labor resources. Identified are the causes and reserves of increasing the economic growth in Belarus. KEYWORDS: gender factors, discrimination on labor market, pension reform, social safety net, economic growth. JEL-code: J13, J14, J16, H55. Received 13.10.2015 ANALYSIS OF EXPERIENCE IN IMPLEMENTING INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN EAEC MEMBER STATES AND EVALUATION OF ITS EFFECTIVENESS Sergey Tolkachev, Anatolii Solovev Authors affiliation: Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia). Corresponding author: Anatolii Solovev ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The article presents the results of the factor and comparative analyses of the experience of implementing the industrial policy in the EAEC member states over the period of 1990–2014. There have identified the factors that influenced to a greater or smaller extent the implementation and effectiveness of the industrial policy. There was made their comparative analysis, with the respective conclusions drawn. KEYWORDS: Industrial policy, factor analysis, comparative analysis, effectiveness, Eurasian Union, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia. JEL-classification: L50, L51, L52. Received 12.10.2015 ISSUES OF INCREASING ACTIVITY OF AZERBAIJAN’S NON-OIL SECTOR INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES IN INNOVATION SPHERE Azer Namazov, Rauf Jabiyev, Mahir Mukhtarov Authors affiliation: Center for Scientific Innovations of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences (Baku, Azerbaijan). Corresponding author: Rauf Jabiyev ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The article considers the issues of formation and improvement of industry sector’s structure, including that of science intensive sectors. Identified are the reasons for the low activity of the non-oil sector enterprises in the innovation sphere. Suggested are measures for further improvement of production efficiency. KEYWORDS: GDP, investments, modernization, return on assets, innovations, depreciation, competitiveness. JEL-code: L60, L80, L90, O39. Received 23.09.2015 TREND INFLATION ASSESSMENT FOR BELARUS: A MONETARY APPROACH Aleksandra Bezborodova Author affilation: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. Corresponding author: Bezborodova Aleksandra ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The present study describes the assessment of the trend inflation based on the monetary approach, with a dynamic factor model used. With the purpose of assessing the correctness of the calculated indicator, a number of tests were applied: a set of technical tests, tests for the ability to predict inflation, and tests of economic pithiness. The final trend indicator of inflation meets the criteria of the tests carried out. An analysis of the trend inflation dynamic indicates possible inflation acceleration in the short term in conditions of loosening monetary policy. KEYWORDS: trend inflation, dynamic factor model, monetary approach, CPI, impulse response functions, monetary indicators, price indices, Belarus. JEL-code: C32, E31, E51. Received 7.09.2015 DIRECTIONS OF EXPANDING THE USE OF EUROBONDS AS A BORROWING INSTRUMENT BY THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS Irina Zhuk1, Andrei Belkovets2 Authors affiliation: Belarus State Economic University (Minsk, Belarus). 2 Development Bank of the Republic of Belarus (Minsk, Belarus). 1 Corresponding author: Irina Zhuk ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The paper analyses the debut issue of Eurobonds by the Republic of Belarus. Identified are its specifics and problems of issuance. The methods of research include formal logic, dialectics, comparative-historical, retrospective and comparative analyses, and generalization. As a result, the authors identify the factors of high yield of Belarus’s debut issue and its positive repercussions. They consider the prospects of subsequent entry into the world market of Eurobond borrowings by Belarus’s residents. Suggested are a number of measures aimed at expanding the use of Eurobonds as a borrowing instrument by Belarus, among which are measures on lowering the cost of credit resources, as well as those on increasing access to capital markets and eliminating the drawbacks of the national legislation. KEYWORDS: Eurobonds, credit linked notes, sovereign and corporate borrowers, yield to maturity, credit rating. JEL-code: F14, F15. Received 14.09.2015 MONETARY INTEGRATION IN THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION: IMPLICATIONS FOR BELARUS’S ECONOMY Alexander Vaitsiakhovich Author affiliation: Belarus State Economic University (Minsk, Belarus). Corresponding author: Alexander Vaitsiakhovich ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The article discusses the prospects of monetary integration in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and its possible consequences for Belarus’s economy. The main propositions of the modern theory of monetary integration considering the causes and effects of the recent sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone are systematized. In particular, the article reasons the causality between the loss of monetary and exchange-rate instruments and sovereign debt accumulation. Revealed are the effects of the loss of monetary and exchange-rate instruments on Belarus’ economy. The problem of liquidity of the national economy is highlighted in conditions monetary integration. The article concludes with suggestions whether involvement in monetary integration in the EAEU would be advisable for Belarus. KEYWORDS: monetary integration, monetary union, monetary and foreign exchange policy, liquidity crunch, sovereign debt crisis. JEL-code: E51, E58, E62, F33, F34, F36, H63. Received 14.10.2015 IMPROVING LABOR NORMING IN BELARUS Nataliya Makovskaya Author affiliation: Mogilev A.A. Kuleshov State University (Mogilev, Belarus). Corresponding author: Nataliya Makovskaya ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The article presents the results of the research dealing with the functioning and organization of the traditional system of labor norming in Belarus’s industry. An attempt was made to carry out the first monitoring of rationing labor norming based on the scientific and methodological approaches applied in the world economic practice. The purpose of this article is to draw attention of business practitioners and government to a system of labor norming which has not changed since the days of the Soviet economy. For domestic enterprises the solution of the problems related to the transformation of the system of labor regulation is relevant because it is not efficient to modernize and introduce the latest technology on the basis of outdated approaches to the integration and application labor resources. KEYWORDS: labor standards, the calculation of normative number of employees, wages, labor productivity, labor intensity, the efficient amount of labor resources. JEL-code: J21, J22, J23, J24. Received 17.08.2015. MODIFICATION OF INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION FOR IDENTIFYING AND PLANNING TOTAL IMPORT COSTS OF EXPORTED PRODUCTS Aleksei Korotkevich, Boris Lapko Authors affiliation: Belarus State University (Minsk, Belarus). Corresponding author: Aleksei Korotkevich ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The article suggests an approach developed to modify an essential economic tool of analyzing and planning – an input-output model, within the framework of which import consumption and costs have become part of the inter-sectoral balance of Belarus. The modification of the input-output model was carried out with the aim of creating a toolkit which enables to identify and plan the total costs of imported resources of various economic activities for the manufactured and exported products and services. The proposed model makes it possible to calculate the total costs of imports not only for exports but also for any other type of end product. There has been done a comparative analysis of the results obtained on the basis of the input-output model of the Republic of Belarus and Sweden. It was found out that import dependency of export oriented types of Belarus’s economic activities by and large is not higher than in Sweden; however, their amount in Belarus in comparison with Sweden is much lower. The algorithm developed enables to easily and quickly build a new model of inter-sectoral balance based on the current reporting input-output model. KEYWORDS: Input-output model, import, export, type economic activity, end product, direct and total the import costs, technological ratios, forecasting and planning the economy. JEL-code: C67. Received 8.07.2015 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND SPECIFICS OF SMALL OPEN ECONOMY IN FORECASTING TAX REVENUES Marina Dedusheva Author affiliation: 1 National State Tax Service University of Ukraine (Irpin, Ukraine). Corresponding author: Marina Dedusheva ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. The article presents the findings of the research of statistical approaches of tax revenue forecasting that can be used in Ukraine, given specifics of the national economy. In particular, there were considered such modern time-series methods as ARIMA and autoregression vector error correction model (VECM). Demonstrated are the results of their application for forecasting tax revenues to Ukraine’s consolidated budget. Revealed is the impact of Ukraine’s economy peculiarities on the formation of forecast models. The fact that Ukraine is a small and open economy makes it possible to assume that the tax revenues should be determined to a great extent by external terms of trade and the world economic dynamics. It is shown that taking into account external economic variables significantly improves the accuracy of the description of the actual data within the sampling when applying VECM- and RW- models. KEYWORDS: tax revenue forecasting, modeling fiscal variables, random walk model, time series analysis, ARIMA, estimation error, forecasting accuracy. JEL-code: H21, C53, C32. Received 12.06.2015 NOBEL PRIZE 2015 «FOR THE ANALYSIS OF CONSUMPTION, POVERTY AND WELFARE» Viktor Vorobiov Author affiliation: Belarus State Economic University (Minsk, Belarus). Corresponding author: Victor Vorobiev ([email protected]). ABSTRACT. Considered is Angus Deaton’s contribution to the development of microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics, problems of poverty, and living standards in developing countries. KEYWORDS: the almost ideal demand system, the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics, poverty and welfare. JEL-code: В21, В22, В31, D12. Received 10.11.2015