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11 The Income-Expenditure Model Chapter Summary The model we develop in this chapter is called the income-expenditure model, sometimes referred to as the Keynesian cross. The model was developed by the economist John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s. This chapter will primarily use graphical tools to explain the income-expenditure model. An appendix to this chapter provides an algebraic treatment of the model and shows how some of the key formulas are derived. Here are the main points of the chapter: In the income-expenditure model, the level of output in the economy will adjust to equal the level of planned expenditures. This level of output is called equilibrium output. Consumption spending consists of two parts. One part is independent of income, but can be influenced by changes in wealth or consumer sentiment. The other part depends on the level of income. Increases in planned expenditures by households, the government, or the foreign sector lead to increases in equilibrium output. Because of the multiplier, the final increase in equilibrium output is larger than the initial increase. Policymakers can use multipliers to calculate the appropriate size of economic policies. Higher tax rates, by reducing the multiplier, can reduce fluctuations in GDP. Increases in exports lead to increases in equilibrium output; increases in imports lead to decreases in equilibrium output. The income-expenditure model can be used to derive the aggregate demand curve. Applying the Concepts After reading this chapter, you should be able to answer these four key questions: 1. How do changes in the value of homes affect consumer spending? 2. Why does real GDP typically increase after natural disasters? 3. How influential a figure was John Maynard Keynes? 4. How do countries benefit from growth in their trading partners? 162 The Income-Expenditure Model 163 11.1 A Simple Income-Expenditure Model To determine equilibrium output, we need to understand the behavior of firms. Figure 11.1 illustrates the behavior of firms with a 45° line from the origin. In the income-expenditure model, the 45° line represents where planned expenditure equals actual output. Because firms are willing to supply whatever is demanded without raising prices very much, demand is the key factor in determining the level of output, or GDP. As we consider demand, we will focus on consumption spending (C) and investment spending (I). Total demand or planned expenditures in this model will be C + I. In the income-expenditure model, the level of output in the economy will adjust to equal the level of planned expenditures. The level of output is called the equilibrium output. The following equation shows this relationship: Key Equation Equilibrium output = y* = C + I = planned expenditures Figure 11.2 can help us understand how the level of equilibrium output, or GDP, in the economy is determined. On the expenditure-output graph, we draw the line representing planned expenditures, C + I, which is a horizontal line, because both C and I are fixed amounts. The intersection of the 45° line with the planned expenditures line at point a determines equilibrium output, y*. Later we will add other components of aggregate demand and demonstrate their effects on the income-expenditure model. What if production is greater or lesser than equilibrium output? Figure 11.3 illustrates how adjustment would occur: If there is excess production, the 45° line is greater than planned expenditures. Output that is not purchased piles up as business inventories. Businesses see inventories rising and reduce production in the next period to meet demand. If there is insufficient production, the 45° line is lower than planned expenditures. When people purchase more output than firms are currently producing, inventories fall. Firms see inventories falling and increase production in the next period. Study Tip Table 11.1shows how adjustment to equilibrium output occurs with numerical data. Notice that production here refers to output produced. The interaction between planned expenditures, C + I, and output produced determines the equilibrium output amount. Caution! Demand—not prices—drives the production of inputs and products in the short run. 164 Chapter 11 11.2 The Consumption Function As we build the model toward total planned expenditures, we will start with household consumption. Other components in later sections to be added later as we build toward total planned expenditures. You will remember from Chapter 5, consumption expenditures were $10,046 billion or 70.8 percent of GDP. (See Table 5.1 on page 104.) The following equations are key to understanding consumption behavior. Key Equations Consumption Function: C = Ca + by, where Ca is autonomous consumption expenditures, b is the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), and y is income. MPC = additional consumption additional income MPS = additional saving additional income In Chapter 9 you learned that consumption expenditures can be broken into two pieces. Autonomous consumption is consumption expenditures that don’t change when income changes. Autonomous consumption is represented in the equation as (Ca). The other term, (by), in the consumption function represents consumer spending dependent on changes in income. This term has two parts to it. The letter b represents the marginal propensity to consume and the letter y represents income. The marginal propensity to consume, or MPC, is the fraction of additional income spent on consumption goods. The marginal propensity to save, or MPS, is the remaining fraction of additional income that must be saved. Study Tip Output is also equal to the income that flows to the households. As firms produce output, they pay households income in the form of wages, interest, profits, and rents. Recall the discussion of value added in Chapter 5. Since total income equals total value added, we know total income must also equal total output. We can therefore use y to represent both output and income. Figure 11.4 shows how the consumption function is graphed in the income-expenditure model. Autonomous consumption (Ca) is graphed as the intercept term. The consumption function has a slope of b, equal in value to the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). Figure 11.5 shows how changes in autonomous consumption and the marginal propensity to consume cause changes in the consumption function. Panel A shows that an increase in autonomous consumption from C0a to C1a shifts the entire consumption function upward. Note that the slope of the consumption function does not change. The consumption function shifts when: Consumer wealth changes Consumer confidence changes The Income-Expenditure Model 165 Panel B shows that an increase in the MPC from b to b′ increases the slope of the consumption function. Increases in MPC pivot the consumption function counterclockwise; decreases in MPC pivot the consumption function clockwise. Let’s review an Application that answers one of the key questions we posed at the start of the chapter: 1. How do changes in the value of homes affect consumer spending? APPLICATION 1: FALLING HOME PRICES, THE WEALTH EFFECT, AND DECREASED CONSUMER SPENDING The value of homes in excess of what people borrow with a mortgage is known as their home equity. Home equity is the single largest component of net wealth for most families in the United States. From 1997 to mid-2006, housing prices rose nationally by approximately 90 percent and consumer wealth grew by $6.5 trillion. In the summer of 2006, housing prices began to fall, in some regions by as much as 30 percent, and many recent home purchasers owed more than their homes were worth. In its review of the literature, the Congressional Budget Office found most studies estimated a decrease of consumer wealth of $1 would lower consumption spending by somewhere between $.02 and $.07. Based on forecasts for housing prices, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the declines in housing prices would reduce consumer wealth and ultimately consumer spending between $21 and $72 billion during 2007. 11.3 Equilibrium Output and the Consumption Function Figure 11.6 shows how equilibrium output is determined with a consumption function. following steps in graphing equilibrium output: 1. Draw the consumption function (C). 2. Draw the C + I line parallel to the C line but shifted upward by I units. 3. Draw the 45° line. 4. Where the C + I line crosses the 45° line determines equilibrium output, y*. Take the Key Equation y* Ca I 1 MPC In Chapter 8, we defined the relationship between saving and investment. We can also define equilibrium output in terms of savings and investment as follows: Key Equations y = C + S (Income) => S = y - C y = C + I (Output) => I = y - C S=I 166 Chapter 11 From these equations, we can derive a savings function that shows the level of savings given a level of income. The savings function is derived as follows: Key Equations S=y–C S = y – (Ca + by) S = y – Ca – by S = -Ca + y – by S = -Ca + (1 – b)y Figure 11.8 illustrates the impact of the multiplier in the income-expenditure model. When investment increases from I0 to I1, equilibrium output increases from y0 to y1. The change in output (Δy) is greater than the change in investment (ΔI). The logic behind the multiplier is that spending generates income for additional spending. As this process continues over time, total spending will continue to increase, but in diminishing amounts. Key Equations Multiplier = 1 1 MPC 1 y I 1 MPC Study Tip Learn now to apply the multiplier formulas above. They will be similar to fiscal policy applications in section 11.4 in this chapter. Try practice problems in this study guide until you feel comfortable solving these problems. Let’s review an Application that answers one of the key questions we posed at the start of the chapter: 2. Why does real GDP typically increase after natural disasters? APPLICATION 2: INCREASED INVESTMENT SPENDING RAISES GDP AFTER NATURAL DISASTERS When Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast and New Orleans in 2005, many economists predicted that it would have only small and temporary effects on total U.S. GDP. The basic reason for their prediction was that natural disasters can often stimulate economic activity because people need to buy material to rebuild homes. The purchase of goods and services is new investment spending for the economy, which stimulates GDP both through its direct effect and through the multiplier. Ironically, although the hurricane destroys wealth (in terms of the house), it stimulates new production. The Income-Expenditure Model 167 Some economists call spending like this “regrettables” because most people would rather not spend to rebuild a destroyed house. 11.4 Government Spending and Taxation Using taxes and spending to influence the level of GDP in the short run is known as Keynesian fiscal policy. As with investment spending in the previous section, government spending and taxes have multiplier effects. In this section, we will expand planned expenditures to include government spending: Key Equation equilibrium output = y* = C + I + G = planned expenditures Panel A of Figure 11.9 shows how increases in government spending affect GDP. The increase in government spending from G0 to G1 shifts the C + I + G line upward and increases the level of GDP from y0 to y1. Study Tip The multiplier for changes in autonomous variables such as autonomous consumption, investment, and government expenditures are all the same as the one shown below. Key Equation Multiplier = 1 1 - MPC Panel B of Figure 11.9 shows how an increase in taxes will decrease the level of GDP. As the level of taxes increases, the demand line will shift downward by b (the increase in taxes). Equilibrium income will fall from y0 to y1. The multiplier for taxes is slightly different than the multiplier for government spending. Key Equation Tax Multiplier = MPC 1 MPC The tax multiplier is negative because increases in taxes decrease disposable personal income and lead to a reduction in consumption spending. Any change in taxes does not directly affect spending. Instead it affects disposable income. A tax cut causes disposable income to increase. Spending increases by the MPC times the increase in disposable income. That’s why the MPC is in the numerator of the tax multiplier equation. 168 Chapter 11 Caution! Be sure and use negative signs to show tax and spending decreases in your calculations. The multipliers are built to take into account increases and decreases. Although our income-expenditure model with government is very simple and leaves out many factors, like all models, it illustrates some important lessons: An increase in government spending will increase total planned expenditures for goods and services. Cutting taxes will increase the after-tax income of consumers and will also lead to an increase in planned expenditures for goods and services. Policymakers need to take into account the multipliers for government spending and taxes as they develop policies. Keynes was a strong advocate for activist fiscal policy. One of Keynes’s controversial ideas was that governments could stimulate the economy even if they spent money on wasteful projects. In the General Theory, he even remarked (tongue-in-cheek) how lucky the Egyptians were, because the death of the pharaohs would lead to new pyramids being built. Pyramids do not add to the stock of capital to produce regular goods and services. But Keynes’s point was that building pyramids does add to planned expenditures and stimulates GDP in the short run. In the long run, of course, we are better off if government spends the money wisely, such as on needed infrastructure such as roads and bridges. This is an example of the principle of opportunity cost. Principle of Opportunity Cost The opportunity cost of something is what you sacrifice to get it. Let’s review an Application that answers one of the key questions we posed at the start of the chapter: 3. How influential a figure was John Maynard Keynes? APPLICATION 3: JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: A WORLD INTELLECTUAL This Application summarizes the life and accomplishments of John Maynard Keynes. Many have called Keynes the most influential economist of the 20th century. Keynes was a prolific writer and economist following in the footsteps of his father John Neville Keynes. The younger John Maynard Keynes attended Cambridge and King’s College. His best known work is The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. Figure 11.10 plots the rate of growth of U.S. real GDP from 1871 to 2007. It is apparent from the graph that the U.S. economy has been much more stable after World War II than before. One reason for this increased stability is automatic stabilizers. To see how automatic stabilizers work in our model, we must take into account that the government levies income taxes by applying a tax rate to the level of income. We will look to after-tax income or personal disposable income. The consumption function changes to account for taxes. The Income-Expenditure Model 169 Key Equation C = Ca + b(1 – t)y where the adjusted MPC = b(1 – t) Changes to the MPC cause the slope of the consumption function to change. Figure 11.11 shows how an increase in the tax rate would affect the income-expenditure model. Raising the tax rate lowers the adjusted MPC and reduces the slope of this line. The C + I + G line with taxes intersects the 45° line at a lower level of income. Automatic stabilizers help stabilize economic fluctuations. Permanent income and expectations that the government will take action to stabilize the economy also contribute to economic stability. 11.5 Exports and Imports An increase in exports means that there’s an increase in the demand for goods produced in the United States. An increase in imports means that there is an increase in foreign-produced goods purchased by U.S. residents. Importing goods rather than purchasing them from our domestic producers reduces the demand for U.S. goods. To modify our model to include the effects of world spending on exports and U.S. spending on imports, we need to take two steps: 1. Add exports X, as another source of demand for U.S. goods and services. 2. Subtract imports, M, from total spending by U.S. residents. We will assume that imports, like consumption, increase with the level of income. Key Equations M = my where m is the marginal propensity to import. b – m = marginal propensity to consume adjusted for imports. Figure 11.12 shows how equilibrium output is determined including the international sector. Figure 11.13 shows the impacts on equilibrium output with changes in exports and changes in the marginal propensity to import. Panel A shows that an increase in exports will increase the level of GDP. Panel B shows that an increase in the marginal propensity to import will decrease the level of GDP. Let’s review an Application that answers one of the key questions we posed at the start of the chapter: 4. How do countries benefit from growth in their trading partners? 170 Chapter 11 APPLICATION 4: THE LOCOMOTIVE EFFECT: HOW FOREIGN DEMAND AFFECTS A COUNTRY’S OUTPUT From the early 1990s until quite recently, the United States was what economists term the “locomotive” for global growth. As the U.S. economy grew, our demand for foreign products increased. Imports increase as an economy grows, and U.S. imports also increased along with output during this period. Because the U.S. economy is such an important part of the world economy, its demands for foreign goods—U.S. imports—fueled exports in foreign countries and promoted their growth. Study Tip A basic fact of international trade is that one country’s imports must be the exports of other countries in the world. If U.S. imports increase, then exports from some of the other countries must also increase. 11.6 The Income-Expenditure Model and the Aggregate Demand Curve In Figure 11.14, we see how the income-expenditure model provides the foundation for the aggregate demand curve, which will enable us to analyze both changes in output and prices. As the price level falls from P0 to P1, planned expenditures increase. Output increases from y0 to y1. The aggregate demand curve shows the combination of prices and equilibrium output. Caution! Anything affecting C, I, G, or NX other than the price level itself will cause shifts of the aggregate demand curve. Price level changes will cause movement along the aggregate demand curve. Figure 11.15 shows what happens when a variable other than the price level changes. For example, the increase in government expenditure will raise the equilibrium output, from y0 to y1. Because the price level has not changed, we have a higher level of output at the same level of price. This means that the aggregate demand curve would shift to the right, from AD0 to AD1. Study Tip If you want to know how the equations are derived mathematically, refer to the appendix of this chapter for detailed analysis. The Income-Expenditure Model 171 Activity Suppose you have a consumption function of C = 500 + 0.9(y) and investment I = 400. a. Calculate the equilibrium output y*. b. Determine the savings function. c. At y*, what is the savings amount? Answers a. Use the following key equation; y* Ca I 1 MPC y*= (500 + 400) / (1 – 0.9) = 9,000 b. S = y – C S = y – (500 + 0.9y) S = y – 500 – 0.9y S = –500 + 0.1y c. S = –500 + 0.1(9,000) S = 400 Another way to solve for this answer is to use the S = I identity and know that investment was 400. In these simple models, S will always be equal to I regardless of the level of equilibrium income. Key Terms Autonomous consumption: The part of consumption that does not depend on income. Consumption function: The relationship between consumption spending and the level of income. Equilibrium output: produced. The level of GDP at which planned expenditure equals the amount that is Marginal propensity to consume (MPC): The fraction of additional income that is spent. Marginal propensity to import: The fraction of additional income that is spent on imports. Planned expenditures: Another term for total demand for goods and services. Savings function: The relationship between the level of saving and the level of income. 172 Chapter 11 Practice Quiz (Answers are provided at the end of the Practice Quiz.) 1. The income-expenditure model was originally developed by the economist ___________________ and later extended and refined by many economists. a. Adam Smith b. John Maynard Keynes c. Milton Friedman d. Joseph Schumpeter 2. Refer to the figure below. In the income-expenditure model, what happens at y*? a. b. c. d. Output equals the change in inventories. Output equals planned expenditures. The amount of output demanded equals the amount of output in inventories. all of the above 3. Refer to the figure below. When is production expected to rise? The Income-Expenditure Model a. b. c. d. 173 at y* at y1 at y2 There isn’t sufficient information to answer the question. 4. Consider the consumption function C = Ca + bY. Which part of this function represents consumption that does not depend on income? a. Ca b. b c. bY d. The entire consumption function, Ca + bY, represents consumption that does not depend on income.. 5. Refer to the figure below. Which graph correctly depicts an increase in the marginal propensity to consume? a. b. c. d. the graph on the left the graph on the right both graphs neither graph 6. This question tests your understanding of Application 1 in this chapter: Falling home prices, the wealth effect, and decreased consumer spending. How do changes in the value of homes affect consumer spending? Following significant increases from 1997 until mid-2006, home prices began to fall in the summer of 2006. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the ultimate decrease in consumer spending in 2007, based on the decrease in consumer wealth resulting from the decline in housing prices, would be between $21 billion and $72 billion. According to most of the studies reviewed by the Congressional Budget Office, a. for every $1 decrease in consumer wealth, consumption spending decreases between $.02 and $.07. b. for every $1 decrease in consumption spending, consumer wealth decreases by $2 to $7. c. a decrease in consumer wealth results in an equal-valued decrease in consumer spending. d. changes in consumption spending are inversely related to changes in consumer wealth. 174 Chapter 11 7. Refer to the figure below. Which point best represents (Ca + I)? a. b. c. d. point 1 point 2 point 3 point 4 8. The relationship between the level of income and the level of savings is called a. the savings function. b. the marginal propensity to save. c. the savings multiplier. d. the demand for savings. 9. Which of the following affects the level of GDP in the short run through its influence on the demand for goods and services? a. the level of government spending b. the level of taxation c. both the level of spending and the level of taxation d. neither the level of spending nor the level of taxation 10. This question tests your understanding of Application 3 in this chapter: John Maynard Keynes: A world intellectual. How influential a figure was John Maynard Keynes? Which of the following were among Keynes’s ideas that challenged the conventional wisdom of his time? a. Keynes argued that economies could automatically recover from economic downturns. b. Keynes believed that economies could recover from downturns by themselves, without the help of the government or anyone else. c. Keynes believed that monetary policies could be very effective during deep recessions. d. Keynes argued that governments needed to adopt active policies, such as increased public works, in order to stimulate the economy. 11. Which of the following is the formula for the tax multiplier? a. 1/MPC b. 1/(1 – MPC) c. – MPC/(1 – MPC) d. change in y / change in G The Income-Expenditure Model 175 12. The U.S. economy has been much more stable after World War II than before. The reason is that a. government taxes and transfer payments, which increase fluctuations in real GDP, grew slowly after the war. b. government taxes and transfer payments, which help to reduce fluctuations in real GDP, grew sharply after the war. c. government taxes have roughly equaled transfer payments, thereby reducing fluctuations in GDP after the war. d. government taxes and transfer payments, which increase fluctuations in real GDP, have remained stable after the war. 13. Refer to the figure below. The shift in the function could have been caused by a. b. c. d. an increase in government spending. a decrease in government spending. an increase in tax rates. a decrease in tax rates. 14. To modify our model to include the effects of exports and imports, we need to a. add exports and imports to total spending. b. subtract exports and imports from total spending by U.S. residents. c. add exports to total spending and subtract imports from total spending. d. subtract exports from total spending and add imports to total spending. 176 Chapter 11 15. Refer to the figure below. The slope of this function equals a. b. c. d. 1/(1 – b) 1/(1 – b + m) b–m 1–b+m 16. Refer to the figure below. Which graph best depicts the impact of an increase in exports? a. b. c. d. the graph on the left the graph on the right both graphs neither graph The Income-Expenditure Model 177 17. Refer to the figure below. Which move illustrates an increase in the price level in this graph? a. b. c. d. a move from A to B a move from A to C a move from B to A a move from C to A 18. The consumption function is 2,000 + 0.8Y. Find the level of consumption resulting from national income if GDP is currently $10,000 billion. a. $2,000 billion b. $6,000 billion c. $8,000 billion d. $10,000 billion 19. Describe in words the meaning of the multiplier of autonomous planned investment spending. 20. Refer to the table. Use the numbers in the table to determine the value of autonomous consumption, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), the marginal propensity to save (MPS), construct the consumption function, and construct the saving function. 21. When the expectations and spending decisions of buyers and sellers do not coincide with each other, production may be too low for full employment. Explain what this Keynesian argument means. 22. Explain the impact of the foreign sector on the income-expenditure model. 178 Chapter 11 Answers to the Practice Quiz 1. b. The income-expenditure model was originally developed by the economist John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s and later extended and refined by many economists. 2. b. At equilibrium output y*, output equals planned expenditures, C + I, and inventories are not changing. 3. c. If output were lower than equilibrium (y2), it would be less than demand and production would rise. 4. a. Consumption that does not depend on income is autonomous consumption. 5. b. An increase in the MPC increases the slope of the consumption function, pivoting the consumption function counterclockwise. 6. a. Most studies reviewed by the Congressional Budget Office estimated a decrease of consumer wealth of $1 would lower consumption spending by somewhere between $.02 and $.07. 7. d. Point 4 is the value of (Ca + I), or autonomous expenditures. 8. a. The level of savings in the economy is not fixed, and how it changes depends on the real GDP. The savings function is the relationship between the level of income and the level of savings. The fraction that the consumer saves is determined by his or her marginal propensity to save (MPS). 9. c. Both the level of government spending and the level of taxation, through their influence on the demand for goods and services, affect the level of GDP in the short run. 10. d. Keynes provided the rationale for activist fiscal policy today. 11. c. This is the number by which a change in taxes will change equilibrium income. 12. b. Government taxes and transfer payments, which help to reduce fluctuations in real GDP, grew sharply after the war. 13. c. An increase in tax rates decreases the slope of the C + I + G line. This lowers output and reduces the multiplier. 14. c. To modify our model to include the effects of exports and imports, we need to take two steps: Add exports, X, to other sources of spending as another source of demand for U.S. products. Subtract imports, M, from total spending by U.S. residents. Consumers will import more goods as income rises. 15. c. The fraction m is known as the marginal propensity to import. We subtract this fraction from b, the overall marginal propensity to consume, to obtain the MPC for spending on domestic goods, b – m. 16. a. An increase in exports (X) affects the intercept of the expenditure function. 17. a. In this graph, a decrease in the price level causes a move along the aggregate demand curve, from point A to point B. The Income-Expenditure Model 179 18. d. If GDP is $10,000, consumption spending will be $2,000 (autonomous consumption spending) plus 0.8 times $10,000, which is $2,000 plus $8,000 = $10,000.. 19. The multiplier of autonomous planned investment shows the change in equilibrium income resulting from a change in autonomous planned investment spending. Each dollar of additional investment yields more than one dollar of additional income. In a closed economy without taxation, this multiplier equals 1/ (1 – MPC). If the MPC equals 0.8, for example, then the multiplier equals 5. In other words, for each additional dollar of investment spending, equilibrium income will rise by five dollars. 20. The value of autonomous consumption equals 50, or the value of consumption when income equals zero. The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is the slope of the consumption function. Using any two pairs of income and consumption values, the MPC = 0.75. Using any two pairs of income and saving values, the MPS = 0.25, or 1 – MPS. The consumption function equals C = 50 + 0.75Y, and the saving function equals S = – 50 + 0.25Y. 21. Since households and firms are two different groups of people, the spending and saving decisions of households are divorced from the investment and production decisions of business firms. For example, suppose that business expectations became pessimistic. Business firms would reduce planned investment, regardless of how low interest rates dipped. If firms were unwilling to use household saving to invest, then saving would be too high. If saving is too high, consumption is too low, and some of the goods produced by the firm remain unsold. This, in turn, would prompt business firms to reduce output and employment in future periods. This was the Keynesian argument, which, combined with the existence of sticky wages, helped to explain the persistence of unemployment. If a reduction in output and employment fails to put downward pressure on prices and wages, then the economy could remain stuck at a level of output below the potential output for an extended period. 22. Exports are an autonomous component of expenditure. Exports depend on the income of foreigners, not domestic income. Regardless of the level of domestic income, exports remain the same. Imports depend on the level of domestic income. As domestic income rises, imports rise by an amount called the marginal propensity to import (MPI). For example, for each additional dollar of income, domestic consumers may spend 20 cents on foreign goods, making the marginal propensity to import 0.2. The marginal propensity to import ends up in the denominator of the multiplier for the economy. As the marginal propensity to import increases, the multiplier becomes smaller, rotating the aggregate expenditure function clockwise, and decreasing the level of output and income. While exports contribute to higher GDP, imports cause the contrary. The effect of net exports on equilibrium output and income is positive as long as exports exceed imports.