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ZAMBIA
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
President Levy Mwanawasa is an incumbent in this years elections, scheduled
for December. Ill health and declining popularity should make it a close one. His
ruling party, the MMD, will face substantial opposition in the next elections, as a
recently formed coalition bloc threatens their majority. “Three opposition parties
in Zambia have formed an alliance to field a candidate in the 2006 presidential
election, Patriotic Front leader Michael Sata said Oct. 11. The Patriotic Front, the
Party for Unity Democracy and Development and the Zambia Democratic
Conference signed a memorandum of understanding to work together and hold
joint meetings ahead of the election. The "Rainbow" alliance will field a candidate
against incumbent Levy Mwanawasa.” If this alliance remains cohesive, it stands
a strong chance of winning at least the parliamentary elections, and, depending
on the strength of their candidate, maybe the presidential election too. Incidents
of violence are few and far between generally, but are expected to rise as the
election draws nearer. The United Democratic Alliance has announced their
plans to use violence to influence voters and discourage vote rigging. Recently
accusations have been made against white farmers and eco-tourism operators
including safari park owners that they are working to undermine and overthrow
the MMD government (see below): “Mwanawasa's aide, Alfred Chipoya, accused
a group of white farmers of agreeing to create artificial food shortages ahead of
the elections in a bid to remove the MMD.” With Mwanawasa’s health rapidly
declining after a series of small strokes, and treatment in London and South
Africa taking him out of the country for weeks and months at a time, he will have
to rely on the strength of the MMD to keep him in power, without relying too much
on his individual popularity ratings in the next election.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
In 2005 Zambia reached its 5th straight year of economic growth. The GDP grew
to 5.1% in 2004, above the expected 3.5% growth. This phenomenon was
primarily the result of rising copper output and improving agricultural
performance. GDP expected to continue strong through 2006. and to plateau at
about 5%. Copper and agriculture production expected to remain high, but lack of
diversification leaves the market open to damage due to vulnerabilities like
natural or climatic events such as drought and the fickle global copper markets.
However even with these improving numbers, more than 70% of the population
are affected by widespread poverty. Also, due to Zambia’s relatively peaceful
environment the tourism industry is still rising and private investment remains
strong. Economic indicators and data at bottom of report.
Recent Economic Developments
Over the period 2000-03, growth averaged 4.2 per
cent, driven by agriculture, mining activity, and a
dynamic tourism sector. Strong agriculture and mining
output, together with sizeable private investment,
strengthened economic performance in 2004, bringing
growth to an estimated 5.1 per cent.
After three years of scanty rains and drought forced
the country to rely on external food aid, agriculture
registered strong growth in 2002/03 and 2003/04.
African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2005
MMD condemns violence
MMD national secretary, Katele Kalumba, has lashed out at the planned use of
violence during this year's elections by the United Democratic Alliance (UDA),
describing the move as a primitive way of seeking to win elections.
Reacting to threats by the UDA at their rally in Choma at the weekend, that they
would use the 'Mapatizya formula' throughout the country to thwart rigging, Dr
Kalumba said it was unfortunate that the UDA was plotting violence when other
parties were busy preparing structures at all levels in readiness for the elections.
Dr Kalumba described the use of violence as counter-productive and retrogressive,
saying there was need to correct past electoral mistakes using the opportunity
provided by the Electoral Commission's consultative workshop on the revision of the
1996 Electoral Code of Conduct.
He said the UDA was "too anxious" to get to State House and advised the alliance of
the United Party for National Development (UPND), Forum for Democracy and
Development (FDD) and UNIP, to revise their manifesto and articulate issues, instead
of ploting violence.
Dr Kalumba also said all MMD's campaign structures were set for the elections.
Meanwhile, Dr Kalumba said a panel has been constituted to receive petitions of
malpractices in the selection of parliamentary candidates and that the party would
deal firmly with all those found using underhand methods.
Dr Kalumba warned in an interview in Livingstone yesterday that the panel had
started receiving petitions and assured all those aggrieved not to despair because
their complaints would be given attention.
In Southern Province, there were several complaints that underhand methods were
being used to favour some candidates for adoption.
Some party officials, especially in Livingstone, had complained bitterly that minutes
from the constituencies had been doctored and that some officials had received
truck-loads of sugar, cellular phones, cash and other gifts as inducement to influence
recommendations.
Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media. (allafrica.com)
LENGTH: 378 words
HEADLINE: White farmers in Zambia deny plot to oust ruling party
DATELINE: LUSAKA, April 22 2006
BODY:
White farmers and safari operators rejected on Saturday accusations made by an
aide to President Levy Mwanawasa that they were plotting to help oust the ruling
party in upcoming elections.
Ross Michelson, one of the safari operators named in a government document
describing the alleged plot, said he has never attended a meeting staged to
coordinate the defeat of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD).
Mwanawasa's aide, Alfred Chipoya, accused a group of white farmers of agreeing to
create artificial food shortages ahead of the elections in a bid to remove the MMD.
According to a letter, dated April 3 and signed by Chipoya, four white large-scale
commercial farmers and safari operators attended a meeting organised by the
opposition Patriotic Front (PF) in which they resolved to mobilise the white
community against Mwanawasa.
The letter alleged the white farmers wanted the MMD out of power because its
policies were having a negative impact on farming.
"I have never entered into any discussion with regard to food shortages or donations
to the Patriotic Front party," Michelson said.
"In the mean time, we have advised our legal representative to communicate with
Chipoya to verify his source of information and explain his action for such
defamatory accusations against myself and Leopard safaris," his statement said.
Another commercial farm mentioned in the plot, Zambeef, also denied the
accusations and challenged Chipoya to provide evidence it was working with the
opposition.
"We have never engaged in any partisan politics. Our company policy has remained
as such," said Jacob Mwanza, board chairman of Zambeef, one of the country's
supplier of beef.
The meeting was allegedly convened by PF Secretary General Guy Scott who is also
white and has close links to several white commercial farmers and safari operators.
Scott served as agriculture minister under ex-president Frederick Chiluba before he
resigned to join the opposition.
Mwanawasa is seeking a second term in the elections, in which voters will also
choose members of parliament and representatives of local governments.
No date has been announced for the polls in Zambia, a landlocked southern African
country where some 70 percent of its 11 million people live below the poverty line.
LOAD-DATE: April 23, 2006
ZAMBIA ECONOMIC INDICATORS
http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/eco_cou_894.pdf
NEW ELECTORAL LAW
Zambia's parliament passed Tuesday a controversial new electoral law ahead of
general elections this year, prompting opposition MPs to walk out in protest.
"After the vote, the bill has effectively been adopted at second reading", the
parliament's speaker Amussa Mwanamwambwa said.
The opposition did not take part in the vote.
Two weeks ago, 22 opposition parties, along with churches and civic groups issued a
joint statement asking for the withdrawal of the bill.
"The bill is at best cosmetic and aimed at hoodwinking the Zambian people that the
forthcoming elections will be held under a new electoral law," read the text.
The opposition wanted the law to include a requirement that a presidential candidate
could only be declared the winner after receiving more than 50 percent of the vote.
If he received less support, a second round of voting should be held.
Under the current law, the candidate with the most votes becomes president,
regardless of whether he received more than 50 percent of the vote.
The new electoral law also empowers the president -- and not the electoral
commission -- to set the election date.
Under the proposed law, transparent ballot boxes will be used and committees will
be established to deal with disputes during the polls.
Mwanawasa is seeking a second term in the elections, in which voters will also
choose new members of parliament and representatives to local governments. No
date has been announced for the polls.
Zambia is a landlocked southern African country where some 70 percent of the 11million population live below the poverty line.
LOAD-DATE: April 5, 2006
LENGTH: 218 words
HEADLINE: Zambia president back home after treatment London
DATELINE: LUSAKA, April 22 2006
BODY:
Hundreds of cheering Zambians turned up Saturday to welcome President Levy
Mwanawasa who returned home from London where he had been receiving
treatment for a minor stroke for about three weeks.
Mwanawasa, who was accompanied by his wife Maureen, alighted from a presidential
jet at Lusaka International Airport to a thunderous welcome from hundreds of wellwishers who included his cabinet.
"I am delighted to be back home," Mwanawasa told reporters on his arrival.
"I never thought I will speak again but I am feeling fine now," said Mwanawasa.
He said his quick recovery was due to prayers by Zambians but he will still need to
rest for few days before resuming his official duties.
His supporters, clad in traditional blue and white, the colours of his ruling Movement
for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), waved placards with the message "Mwanawasa
2006 and beyond" in apparent reference to reports that he will quit.
The 57-year-old president is Zambia's third head of state since independence.
Mwanawasa fell ill in early April as he prepared to travel to the northern Copperbelt
province for a campaign swing ahead of elections expected later this year.
There has been speculation over his health, with some opposition leaders calling for
his resignation, arguing that he was not fit to govern following the stroke.
ELECTIONS: PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL DEC 2006
Agriculture and Food
COUNTRY PROFILE - Zambia
View Technical and Source Notes
Zambia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
World
Average production (000 mtons)
1055
87715
2075387
Percent change since 1979-81
6%
54 %
32 %
Per capita production (tons per person)
X
135
343
Percent change since 1979-81
-40 %
-11 %
-4 %
Average crop yield (kg per ha)
1437
1221
3096
Percent change since 1979-81
-14 %
9%
41 %
Average production (000 mtons)
774
132744
638438
Average crop yield (kg per ha)
X
7694
12958
Average production (000 mtons)
X
6499
55469
Average crop yield (kg per ha)
480
481
808
Average production (000 mtons)
X
8124
233218
Percent change since 1979-81
41 %
49 %
71 %
Total cropland (000 ha), 1999
5279
173572
1501452
Hectares of cropland per 1,000 population, 1999
518
274
251
Arable & Permanent Cropland as a Percent of Total Land
Area, 1998
7%
7.1 %
11.3 %
Percent of cropland that is irrigated, 1999
0.9 %
3.8 %
18.3 %
Total (thousand metric tons)
53
2124
141360
Intensity (kg per hectare cropland)
10
12
94
Pesticide use, 1994-1996 (kg/ha cropland) {c}
317
X
X
Number of tractors, 1997
6000
261984
26334690
Agricultural workers as a percentage of the total labor
force, 1990
74.6 %
X
X
16.6 %
5%
6.5 %
3.5 %
Agricultural Production and Yields
Cereals, 1999-2001
Roots and tubers 1996-1998
Pulses, 1996-1998
Meat, 1999-2001
Agricultural Land,
Agricultural Inputs
Average annual fertilizer use, 1999
Percent of GDP Generated from Agricultural Activities, 2000 27.3 %
Food Security
Variation in Domestic Cereal Production, 1992-2001
(average percent variation from mean)
24.6 %
Net Cereal Imports and Food Aid as a Percent of Total
Consumption {b}, 1998-2000
17.7 %
13.5 %
X
Food Aid as a Percent of Total Imports, 1998-2000
X
19.9 %
X
Average Daily Per Capita Calorie Supply, 1999 (kilocalories) 1934
2238
2808
Average Daily Per Capita Calories from Animal Products,
1999 (kilocalories)
90
152
460
Percent of children that are underweight, 1995-2000 {c}
25 %
30 %
27 %
Other Resources:
Country Profiles of the Food and Agriculture Organization
Footnotes:
a.
The index of agricultural production is a ratio of country's net agricultural output in 1996-98 relative to
the base period 1989--91. This ratio is then multipled by 100 to obtain an index number.
b.
Negative values, indicating a net export of grain, are not shown. Cereal consumption is defined as
production plus imports minus exports.
c. Data are for the most recent year available within the given time range.
View more Country Profiles on-line at http://earthtrends.wri.org
ZAMBIA FOOD SECURITY RESEARCH PROJECT
http://www.aec.msu.edu/fs2/zambia/index.htm
Times of Zambia - AAGM
April 10, 2006 Monday
ACC-NO: A2006041056-10AD8-GNW
LENGTH: 370 words
HEADLINE: POLITICIZING MWANAWASA'S HEALTH CONDITION
BODY:
IN the African context, it is out of culture to speak ill of someone who is sick. It is
unheard of to say bad things about a person who is afflicted, whether he or she is in
hospital or suffering at home.
But sadly, that is the level of politics Zambia has reached.
The resent remarks attributed to FDD leader, Edith Nawakwi and UPND's Patrick
Chisanga on President Mwanawasa's admission to a London hospital, are not only
unfortunate but in the least, an embarrassment.
In villages, the two opposition leaders would have been ostracised or denounced, if
not kicked out of a village. This is the punishment that is meted on people who step
out of cultural norms and values.
But for those familiar with the level of some opposition politicians in this country, it is
not surprising that they are making political capital out of President Mwanawasa,
currently on medical check-up in the British capital.
We have mentioned in this column before that the problem with opposition party
leaders in Zambia is their failure to tackle issues and would rather dwell on
trivialities if that will get them some publicity.
Surely, if Ms Nawakwi and Mr Chisanga did not have anything to say about the
matter, it should have been more honourable to keep quiet.
There are enough problems both in the FDD and UPND including the so-called
alliance that they can find a lot to talk about. Other than that, they should be selling
their flagging parties, telling the people what they are going to offer instead of
commenting for the sake of it.
It is indeed immoral, as Information and Broadcasting Minister, Vernon Mwaanga
pointed out yesterday, to politicise the President's illness.
What is even sad is that this is the calibre of leaders vying to occupy State House.
What a waste of thought.
Many people have simply deduced that the two leaders were merely seeking cheap
publicity, if they are really serious they can do better than that. Their comments
were not only uncultured but completely out of context.
It will help opposition parties and their leaders to tackle issues, for now many of
them have failed, because if they are not wrangling, they are grappling in deep
darkness.
Fact Sheet
General information: Fact sheets are updated biannually; May and
September
Capital: Lusaka Head of State and Head of Government:
Surface area: 753 thousand sq km H.E. President Mr Levy Mwanawasa
Official language: English
Population: 10.9 million (2004)
Exchange rate: A$1 = 3,592.25 Kwacha (Jun 2005)
Recent economic indicators:
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(a) 2005(b)
GDP (US$bn): 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 6.0 7.5
GDP per capita (US$): 375 355 381 446 548 681
Real GDP growth (% change YOY): 3.6 4.9 3.3 5.1 5.0 5.6
Current account balance (US$m): -264 -414 -265 -360 -289 -329
Current account balance (% GDP): -6.8 -11.0 -6.5 -7.5 -4.8 -4.4
Goods & services exports (% GDP): 21.1 26.9 23.7 20.6 21.6 23.6
Inflation (% change YOY): 26.0 21.4 22.2 21.4 18.0 20.0
Labour force (m): 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7