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Economics 102 Spring 2001 Lecture Notes for April 16 through April 25, 2001 Chapter 11 and 12 Money Definition: standard object used in exchanging goods and services Money as a medium of exchange: Money as a unit of account: Money as a store of value: Measuring the Money Supply M1: is the summation of all coins and currency in circulation (held outside banks) + Demand Deposits + Travelers Checks + Other Checkable Deposits o Other checkable deposits include NOW accounts, ATS o Credit cards? M2 is M1 plus savings accounts + money market accounts + other near monies o Other near monies: are liquid assets that are close substitutes for money: e.g., time deposits (CDs < $100,000), overnight Eurodollars, overnight repurchase agreements Size of M1 versus M2 M1 and M2 do not include All available means of payment: e.g., credit cards Some technological methods of payment: electronic cash Money supply is then the cash in the hands of the public + Demand Deposits Liquidity refers to the ease with which as asset can be converted into cash Examples: Importance of Financial Intermediation Savers, Lenders >>>>>Financial Intermediaries>>>>>Borrowers, Spenders E.g., Financial Intermediaries: commercial banks, S and Ls, Credit Unions, Mutual Savings Banks, Life Insurance, and Pension Funds Rise of Banking motivated by o People want to borrow o People want a safe place to hold wealth o People want convenience 1 Fractional Reserve Banking system: a system in which bankers keep as reserves only a fraction of their funds they hold on deposit Banks are in business to earn a profit Bank decisions affect the money supply Banks are concerned about runs: banks should keep prudent level of reserves and lend out money carefully Conflict for banks between profit and safety/soundness led to bank regulation Deposit insurance: system guaranteeing depositors will not lose money even if bank goes bankrupt Bank examinations Required reserves Brief review of accounting before we can explore fractional reserve banking system Assets: things that a firm owns that are worth something Liabilities: things that a firm owes or its debt Examples: mortgages, deposits, bank buildings, furniture Assets – Liabilities = Net Worth or Capital Net Worth = what is owed to owners Assets = Liabilities + Net Worth Bank’s balance sheet: T-account: a bank’s balance sheet must always balance Reserves = Vault Cash + balances held at the Fed 2 Required Reserves = minimum amount of reserves bank must hold. This depends on the amount of its demand deposits and on the required reserve ratio that is set by the Fed. Required Reserve Ratio = minimum fraction of checking account balances that bank must hold as reserves. Example: Numerical Example: Banks legally required to hold reserves equal to Required reserves = (RR ratio)(Deposits) Excess reserves = actual reserves – required reserves Consider a change in a T-account: Someone drops $200 out of the sky: $200 deposited in Bank A. Bank a is the only bank and the required reserve ratio is 20%. There are no currency drains and no excess reserves. Initial Position: With deposit of $200 3 But, there are excess reserves But, process doesn’t end there This process continues until Money supply increases by $1000 when $200 drops out of the sky. AN INCREASE IN BANK RESERVES LEADS TO A GREATER THAN ONE-FOR-ONE INCREASE IN THE MONEY SUPPLY Money Multiplier: is the multiple by which deposits can increase for every dollar increase in new reserves Money Multiplier = 1/(required reserve ratio) So, if the required reserve ratio is .2, then the money multiplier is _____________ So, if the required reserve ratio is .1, then the money multiplier is ______________ Intuition? ABILITY OF BANKS TO CREATE MONEY IS CONTROLLED BY THE VOLUME OF RESERVES IN THE SYSTEM: THIS IS CONTROLLED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE. 4 Another example: Suppose there are three banks, the RR ratio is 10%, and there is an initial deposit of $200 in Bank 1. Assume there are no currency drains, and no excess reserves. Summary: Bank 1 deposits equal Bank 2 deposits equal Bank 3 deposits equal … TOTAL $200 $180 $162 …. $2000 Now, we have a sense of the Fractional Reserve Banking System: let’s add in the Federal Reserve System to complete the picture. 5 FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM: Established in 1913 Independent agency: does not take orders from Congress or the President Financially independent: earns interest from T-bills Organizational Structure: CHAIRMAN OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE: Appointed by the President Approved by the Senate 4 year term BOARD OF GOVERNORS 7 members, including the Chairman Appointed by the President Approved by the Senate 14 year term Supervises, regulates member banks Supervises 12 Federal Reserve Banks Sets reserve requirements and approves discount rate FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE 7 governors and 12 Federal Reserve Presidents Board of Governors, President of NY Fed, and 4 other Presidents have vote Conduct open market operations 12 FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS Lend reserves Provide currency Clear checks Role of the Fed Macro Role: control the money supply, promote a strong economy, high employment, stable price level Other roles: clear interbank payments, regulate banking system, assist banks in difficult financial position (lender of last resort), manage exchange rate and nation’s foreign exchange reserves How can Fed affect the money supply? By controlling the supply of reserves in the banking system: Fed can do this through their three monetary policy tools: 1. 2. 3. a Comments on these tools #1: #2: 6 #3 Open market operations = purchase and sale by Fed of government securities in open market: tool used to expand or contract amount of reserves in the banking system and thus the money supply. Role of the Treasury: Treasury Department is responsible for collecting taxes and paying government’s bills. If G – T> 0, then the Treasury is required by law to borrow the difference. THE TREASURY CANNOT PRINT MONEY TO FINANCE THE DEFICIT. The Treasury borrows money by issuing bills, bonds and notes that pay interest. The total amount of outstanding government securities is the Federal debt. THE FED IS NOT THE U.S. TREASURY. The Fed is authorized to buy and sell outstanding (pre-existing) U.S. government securities on the open market. OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS: A. Open Market Purchase RR ratio = 20% of Demand Deposits (DD) Fed buys $10 in T-bills: this will lead to an increase in the money supply Intuition: T-Account: 7 Money multiplier = 1/RR So, money multiplier in this example = 1/.2= 5 Change in the money supply = (money multiplier)(change in reserves) Change in the money supply = 5($10) = $50 B. Open Market Sale Open market sale will lead to a decrease in the money supply Intuition: Assume: 20% RR ratio Fed sells $10 in T-bills Money multiplier = 1/RR = 1/.2 = 5 Change in the money supply = (Money multiplier)(change in reserves) Change in the money supply = 5(-$10) = -$50 8 Or, if the public buys the T-bill from the Fed: What happens if someone writes a check on one bank and it is deposited at another bank? Does this expand the money supply? New reserves are not created when this happens. Merely, shifting funds from one bank to another: individual actions CANNOT lead to an increase or a decrease in the money supply. Conclude: the Fed can control the money supply by controlling the amount of reserves in the economy. Simplifying assumption: the money supply is vertical and hence, independent of the interest rate. Effect of an open market purchase on the money supply: Effect of an open market sale on the money supply: We have an understanding of the money supply and the Fed’s role with regard to the money supply. Let’s turn our attention to money demand. 9 MONEY DEMAND Money Demand: how much money people would like to hold, given the constraints they face Money demand is a function of Price level (+) Real income (+) Interest rate (-) Graph: Movement along the money demand curve: Shift of the money demand curve: due to changes in Income Prices Spending shock (AE increase or decrease) New technology for payments Expectations about future interest rate 10 Now, we can talk about the determination of interest rates: In LR, interest rates are determined in the loanable funds market In SR, interest rates are determined in the money market Equilibrium is where the demand for money = supply of money Example: Money supply = 2000 Money demand = 2500 – 10,000 r Money supply = money demand in equilibrium 2000 = 2500 – 10,000r r = 500/10,000 = .05 = 5% What if the interest rate does not equal the equilibrium interest rate? If r > the equilibrium interest rate, then money supply > money demand If r < the equilibrium interest rate, then money supply < money demand 11 Let’s consider these two possibilities: 1. When money supply > money demand People want to get rid of some of their money: they buy bonds This bids up the price of bonds and lowers the interest rate Example: 2. When money supply < money demand People want money so they sell their bonds This leads to a decrease in the price of bonds and an increase in interest rates Example: WHEN THE PRICE OF BONDS RISES, THE INTEREST RATE FALLS AND WHEN THE PRICE OF BONDS FALLS, THE INTEREST RATE RISES. What happens in the money market if the Fed engages in open market operations? Open Market Purchase: this leads to an increase in the money supply Price of bonds increases, the interest rate falls in order to equilibrate the new money supply to the money demand 12 Open Market Sale: this leads to a decrease in the money supply Price of bonds decreases, the interest rate rises in order to equilibrate the new money supply to the money demand How do interest rates affect the economy? Decrease in interest rates affect spending: 1. Stimulates business spending on plant and equipment 2. Stimulates spending on new houses and apartments 3. Stimulates spending on consumer durables Now, things get complicated! How, could we model the above ideas? Consider investment: before it was always autonomously given in our model. Now, can we model a more realistic demand for investment? Graph: Now, investment is affected by the interest rate: it is no longer autonomous. If interest rates increase, then investment decreases If interest rates decrease, then investment increases 13 So, if the money supply is increased through an open market purchase, this will: Equilibrium in the money market depends on equilibrium in the goods market, BUT equilibrium in the goods market depends on equilibrium in the money market. So, if the money supply is decreased through an open market sale, this will: Equilibrium in the money market depends on equilibrium in the goods market, BUT equilibrium in the goods market depends on equilibrium in the money market. 14 15