Download Homework Assignment 1

Homework Assignment 1
Economics 514
Macroeconomic Analysis
Due: October 18th, 2012
1. TFP Growth
Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania have assembled a database on
comparable levels of output and investment for a large number of countries. Use the
data from Penn-World Tables. Data can be obtained here:
http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt71/pwt71_form.php. Given data measurement
issues, there are two versions of data for China. Use China version 1.
(Note: To retrieve data from this site, you need to download a .csv file. This file can
be copied to Notepad. The notepad file can be opened by Excel as a spread sheet.
Data can also be downloaded to html and copied and pasted to Excel).
Calculate the average growth rate of TFP in China over the period 1964-2010. Do
this in a number of steps assuming a Cobb-Douglas production function with α = ⅓.
A. Calculate the average growth rate of output. Download information on Real GDP
per Capita (Constant Price: Chain Series) denoted RGDPCH and the Population
denoted variable denoted POP. Use this data to calculate total real GDP, Y.
Remember to calculate the average continuous growth rate of a series, you only need
to know (the logarithms of) the start and end values of the series.
B. Calculate the average growth rate of labor. Download data on Real GDP Chain
per Worker denoted RGDPWOK. The share of the population who are workers is the
ratio of RGDPCH/RGDPWOK. To calculate the number of workers, multiply this
share by POP. Labor hours are not available so assume a constant number of hours
worked per worker.
C. Calculate the average growth rate of capital. You have no direct measure of
capital. Construct a measure of capital using the perpetual inventory method. First,
calculate the level of investment in every period. Download Investment Share of
RGDPL which is denoted KI. Multiply (KI/100) by your measure of total GDP, Y to
get a series for Investment. Estimate the capital stock in 1952 by assuming that in
Y
 1 . Beginning from 1953,
1952, the capital productivity level was 1952
K1952
recursively calculate the capital stock in all subsequent periods using the equation
Kt 1  (1   ) Kt  It with an assumed depreciation rate of 8%.
D. Assume a Cobb-Douglas production function with α = ⅓. Calculate the average
growth rate of TFP over the period 1964-2010. Now, go back and calculate the
average growth rate of TFP over the periods 1964-1978, 1978-1996, and 1996-2010.
Has TFP growth been accelerating in China or declining?
2. Differences in Human Capital and Differences in Productivity
Compare the level of technology in East Asia with those in Latin America. Assume a
production function in each country of the form:
Yt  Kt ( At Ht Lt )1

H t  e1
yearst
yt  kt ( At )1 e  yearst
where Ht is human capital which is a function of the number of years of schooling.
Your assignment is to calculate comparable levels of technology in year 2000 for a
number of Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) and a
number of East Asian economies (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan).
Do this in a number of steps.
A. Gather data on Labor Productivity. Researchers at the University of Groningen
have accumulated data on GDP per hours worked (in 2011 US dollars). Download
data from year 2010 for y for each economy from this site (go to sheet LP-EKS$).
Conference Board - Total Economy Database
B. Gather data on Human Capital: Researchers at Harvard University have a human
capital dataset. In particular, get data on each country on the average number of
years of education of the population 25 years old or older in each country from
the data set by Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. That data can be downloaded in
an Excel file on this page. Calculate the human capital under the assumption that
 = .08. http://www.barrolee.com/data/dataexp.htm
C. Calculate steady state Capital Productivity. You have no information on the
capital stock for each country. Instead assume that capital productivity in the
country is at its steady state level associated with the balanced growth path. To
calculate this, you need data on: the growth rate of technology, assume gA= .02;
the depreciation rate, assume δ= .08, the investment rate, s; and the population
growth rate, n. To calculate s and n, use data from the Penn World Tables derived
from the site linked in the previous question. Calculate the average of investment
as a share of GDP over the years 1991-2010(i.e. the average of KI/100) as a proxy
for s. If the data is not complete for all countries, use whatever years are available
to calculate the average. Calculate the average continuous growth rate of
population over the same period (i.e. the growth rate of POP) as a proxy for n.
Calculate the technology level of each country. Rank them in order of labor
productivity, human capital, and technology.
Computational Problems
Macroeconomics often uses computer simulations to study theoretical models. Do a
couple of simulation exercises for an economy with a Cobb-Douglas production
function
1
2
1
2
Yt  Kt 3 ( At Lt ) 3
yt  kt 3 ( At ) 3
a depreciation rate of 8% (δ=.08), a population growth rate of 1% (n = .01),and an
annual technology growth rate of 2% (gA = .02).
3. Golden Rule
Assume that the economy was on its balanced growth path. Normalize technology at
L
time t to At = 1. Assume a constant labor hours per population of t
= 500.
POPt
Output is used for consumption and investment, Ct + It = Yt and investment is a
constant share of output. Calculate consumption per capita at different levels of invest
rates s = 1100 , 1 4 , 13 , and 1 2 . Which investment rate generates the highest steady
state labor productivity.
4. Convergence
Assume that the investment rate for the economy is at the level which generates
the highest level of consumption per capita. Examine the dynamics of the neoclassical model. Start in period 0. In that period, technology is A0 = 1 and k0 = 1.5.
Calculate labor productivity in period 0 and the labor productivity if the economy
were on its balanced growth path. What is the percentage gap between the actual
level of the economy and the balanced growth path (y0 and yBGP). Calculate the capital
productivity in period 0. Use this to calculate the growth rate of the capital labor ratio,
k  g k  kt 1  kt between period 0 and period 1. Use the growth rate of the capital
t 1
k
kt
A  At
labor ratio and the growth rate of technology A  gtA1  t 1
to calculate k1 and
A
At
A1. Use these numbers to calculate actual and balanced growth path labor productivity
and capital productivity in period 1. Use capital productivity to calculate the growth
rate of the capital-labor ratio in period 1. Calculate technology and the capital labor
ratio in period. 2. Repeat. Calculate the path of actual labor productivity as well as the
balanced growth path for periods 0 through 30. How large is the percentage gap at
period 30.