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Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian
Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian

... similar to the Federal Reserve Board’s FRB/US model and the Bank of Canada’s projection model of the U.S. economy (MUSE). LENS is based on a system of estimated reduced-form equations that describe the interactions among key macroeconomic variables. The model strikes a balance between theoretical st ...
Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap:
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... labelled “monetarist” but are also associated with James Tobin (1974)—for expecting Phillips curves with the output gap to be more robust than those with marginal cost. Under this interpretation, the aggregate demand/aggregate supply balance matters for inflation outcomes—details of input markets ma ...
Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate: A Case
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... specification. The results for the fullsample are reported inTable 1. We observed a positive but insignificant coefficient for the expected exchange rate depreciation inthe interest rate equation.6 On the other hand, when we include exchange rate risk as an additional explanatory variable for the in ...
Domestic and International Macroeconomic Effects of
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... purpose is to create additional liquidity, in excess of that obtained using the standard channel based on the short-term policy rate, which is now constrained by the zero lower bound. The programme aims at increasing the prices of securities and, thus, at reducing the implied long-term interest rate ...
Chapter 18
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... •In July 2012, the Fed lowered its forecasts for economic growth. •In determining monetary policy, the Fed’s forecasts of future economic growth are crucial. •The Fed knows that changes in interest rates and the money supply affect the economy with a lag, so policies it implements today will not hav ...
Malaysia Low inflation, but at high price…
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... until 2014, where the subsidised prices of fuel, food and energy are supposed to be adjusted every six months by specified or fixed amounts or percentages. Inflation rate would have been at least one percentage point higher on the direct impact of SRP if it is not suspended. We estimated that the di ...
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Faculty Research Working Papers Series

... weather it for a number of reasons: borrowing has been a relatively small fraction of the inflow (versus equity and FDI), the rand floats (though not without substantial intervention), and much of the debt is rand-denominated. These factors offer good grounds for hope that a correction will be fairl ...
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... achievable without low unemployment because workers would adjust their nominal wage demands in getting used to high inflation. He argued that the impacts of expansionary policies would be temporary, and the unemployment rate would return to the natural level with higher price level in long-term. In ...
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... during recent years. Stronger domestic economic fundamentals (lower exchange rate risk and inflation risk premiums, as well as fiscal consolidation) and easing global financial conditions are possible explanations for this trend. In all cases, we observe that near-record low global interest rates fo ...
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... policy to the evolution of the price level, while ordinarily leaving the government budget constraint and evolution of the stock of government debt entirely hidden. It has been recognized, at least since Sargent and Wallace (1981), that sufficiently irresponsible fiscal policy could cause problems f ...
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... Mać kowiak (2006a) asks to what extent the macroeconomic variation is caused by external shocks in Central Europe. He examines Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary (note that he does not consider the remaining Central European country that is in center of attention in this paper – Slovakia). Using Ger ...
This PDF is a selection from a published volume
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... analyzing the theory of optimal monetary and fiscal policy,3 but quantitative analyses are scarce.4 There is, of course, a reason for this. It has been difficult to make NNS models replicate stylized facts about fiscal policy, facts that are taken from the recent empirical literature. We will discus ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES OPTIMAL SIMPLE AND IMPLEMENTABLE MONETARY Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
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... restricting attention to rules whereby policy variables are set as a function of a small number of easily observable macroeconomic indicators. Specifically, we study interest-rate feedback rules that respond to measures of inflation, output and lagged values of the nominal interest rate. We analyze ...
The Relationship between Monetary Policy and Asset Prices
The Relationship between Monetary Policy and Asset Prices

... be variance among firms – those more dependent on external financing should have larger swings in stock prices due to a monetary policy shock. The data examines 20,121 firms across forty-four countries, with the average response of stock prices roughly 4:1 from an unexpected change in interest rates ...
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Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions

... depends on both the nature of the intervention and the elasticities of private behavior with respect to policy. The efficacy of our approach hinges on whether it can be applied without implying policy choices that would force the economy into a new policy regime. We offer some statistical guards ag ...
Robrt J. Gordon Working 1050 OF EVENTS AND
Robrt J. Gordon Working 1050 OF EVENTS AND

... the Korean and Vietnam wars, government has introduced an inertia into the quarter—to—quarter changes in spending that may have made a greater contribution to stability than the commitment to discretionary activism embodied ...
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... depends on both the nature of the intervention and the elasticities of private behavior with respect to policy. The efficacy of our approach hinges on whether it can be applied without implying policy choices that would force the economy into a new policy regime. We offer some statistical guards ag ...
Trends in potential output
Trends in potential output

... Irrespective of the long-run effects of the financial crisis on potential growth, the ageing population in the euro area will have a dampening effect on future potential output growth. Without far-reaching structural reforms supporting long-term economic growth, it appears unlikely that the euro are ...
Fed Faces Explaining Billion-Dollar Losses in QE Exit Stress
Fed Faces Explaining Billion-Dollar Losses in QE Exit Stress

... MSCI sees the market value of Fed holdings shrinking by $547 billion over three years under an adverse scenario that includes an economic contraction and rising inflation. MSCI puts the Fed’s mark-to-market loss at less than half that, or $216 billion, if the economy performs in line with consensus ...
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Inflation targeting

Inflation targeting is a monetary policy in which a central bank has an explicit target inflation rate for the medium term and announces this inflation target to the public. The assumption is that the best that monetary policy can do to support long-term growth of the economy is to maintain price stability. The central bank uses interest rates, its main short-term monetary instrument.An inflation-targeting central bank will raise or lower interest rates based on above-target or below-target inflation, respectively. The conventional wisdom is that raising interest rates usually cools the economy to reign in inflation; lowering interest rates usually accelerates the economy, thereby boosting inflation.
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