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... The Ifo Economic Climate Indicator for the euro area (EA19) declined by another three index points in the first quarter of 2016. It dropped to 118.9 points, but still remains significantly above its long-term average. Assessments of the current economic situation were only slightly less favourable t ...
... The Ifo Economic Climate Indicator for the euro area (EA19) declined by another three index points in the first quarter of 2016. It dropped to 118.9 points, but still remains significantly above its long-term average. Assessments of the current economic situation were only slightly less favourable t ...
In D R flue Dev Rele enc velo evan cing opm nt F g Re men Fac ece
... has diminished considerably since 2012 and it is now close to the average value for the EU, thanks to improvements in both its financial and fiscal components. Second, risks over the medium term are very limited and well below many other countries with a lower debt-toGDP ratio. Last, looking at long ...
... has diminished considerably since 2012 and it is now close to the average value for the EU, thanks to improvements in both its financial and fiscal components. Second, risks over the medium term are very limited and well below many other countries with a lower debt-toGDP ratio. Last, looking at long ...
How to measure a fiscal stimulus
... entering the definition, it facilitates comparability between countries with different social protection schemes and tax systems, and it incorporates important elements from a policymaker’s standpoint. Even if the focus is on a given set of measures, a thorough as sessment would have to be embedded ...
... entering the definition, it facilitates comparability between countries with different social protection schemes and tax systems, and it incorporates important elements from a policymaker’s standpoint. Even if the focus is on a given set of measures, a thorough as sessment would have to be embedded ...
SSE in Riga - Harvard Kennedy School
... for a sample of 31 countries (sample period up to 2012.) 1. Official forecasters are more over-optimistic than private forecasters on average, at the 2-year horizon for budget balances and at the 1- & 2-year horizon for real GDP forecasts. 2. While euro area governments were very reluctant to foreca ...
... for a sample of 31 countries (sample period up to 2012.) 1. Official forecasters are more over-optimistic than private forecasters on average, at the 2-year horizon for budget balances and at the 1- & 2-year horizon for real GDP forecasts. 2. While euro area governments were very reluctant to foreca ...
GLOBAL REBALANCING Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
... The problem of procyclicality seems to be especially acute for commodity-rich nations –commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. In those countries commodity-linked revenues (taxes, royalties, profits) can be a large portion of government revenue (see Sinnott 2009). And by any measure, ...
... The problem of procyclicality seems to be especially acute for commodity-rich nations –commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. In those countries commodity-linked revenues (taxes, royalties, profits) can be a large portion of government revenue (see Sinnott 2009). And by any measure, ...
Promoting active learning
... economic development in the shortest possible period of time and is using the method of deficit financing. 5. Uncertainty in getting foreign assistance: Though the LDCs have been receiving foreign assistance yet the amount of aid received has always remained uncertain. The government for increasing ...
... economic development in the shortest possible period of time and is using the method of deficit financing. 5. Uncertainty in getting foreign assistance: Though the LDCs have been receiving foreign assistance yet the amount of aid received has always remained uncertain. The government for increasing ...
Fifty Years of Fiscal Planning and Implementation in the
... content of the public budget one should investigate planning and implementation jointly. Both stages are subject to different incentives and constraints, implying that the implementation may differ substantially from the original plan. Our main results are the following. First, planned surpluses are ...
... content of the public budget one should investigate planning and implementation jointly. Both stages are subject to different incentives and constraints, implying that the implementation may differ substantially from the original plan. Our main results are the following. First, planned surpluses are ...
Monthly Bulletin articles, April 2004
... economic welfare by reducing fluctuations in income and consumption. There are three main channels through which fiscal policies can affect the short-term environment for monetary policy. First, fiscal policies may affect economic growth and prices via discretionary fine-tuning measures, i.e. active ...
... economic welfare by reducing fluctuations in income and consumption. There are three main channels through which fiscal policies can affect the short-term environment for monetary policy. First, fiscal policies may affect economic growth and prices via discretionary fine-tuning measures, i.e. active ...
Don`t Talk to Me about Debt. Talk to Me about Growth.
... However, the macroeconomic gains are typically positive (International Monetary Fund 2012). Restructuring periods are characterized by a significant drop in total public debt to GDP by 15 percentage points; real growth was around 1.5 percent three years before the restructuring but remained consiste ...
... However, the macroeconomic gains are typically positive (International Monetary Fund 2012). Restructuring periods are characterized by a significant drop in total public debt to GDP by 15 percentage points; real growth was around 1.5 percent three years before the restructuring but remained consiste ...
Fiscal Policy in the Crisis: Lessons and Policy Implications
... In thinking about the lessons from the crisis for fiscal policy, the first question is: Which crisis do you mean? The world economy has faced at least three crises since late 2008: a financial crisis, an unemployment crisis, and a fiscal crisis. The three crises are clearly interrelated. The 2008 fi ...
... In thinking about the lessons from the crisis for fiscal policy, the first question is: Which crisis do you mean? The world economy has faced at least three crises since late 2008: a financial crisis, an unemployment crisis, and a fiscal crisis. The three crises are clearly interrelated. The 2008 fi ...
In D R flue Dev Rele enc velo evan cing opm nt F g Re men Fac ece
... has diminished considerably since 2012 and it is now close to the average value for the EU, thanks to improvements in both its financial and fiscal components. Second, risks over the medium term are very limited and well below many other countries with a lower debt-toGDP ratio. Last, looking at long ...
... has diminished considerably since 2012 and it is now close to the average value for the EU, thanks to improvements in both its financial and fiscal components. Second, risks over the medium term are very limited and well below many other countries with a lower debt-toGDP ratio. Last, looking at long ...
Labour Market
... – Convergence to OCA and higher flexibility follow integration process ECES, Prague ...
... – Convergence to OCA and higher flexibility follow integration process ECES, Prague ...
Economic Policy in EMU: Community Framework and National Strategies - focus on Greece
... new member states joined the EU on the 1st May 2004. Slovenia joined the euro area from 1 January 2007, as it fulfilled the required convergence criteria. Seven of the new member states have already become members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II), in preparation of their participation in the ...
... new member states joined the EU on the 1st May 2004. Slovenia joined the euro area from 1 January 2007, as it fulfilled the required convergence criteria. Seven of the new member states have already become members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II), in preparation of their participation in the ...
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... affects markets for crude oil – as it has for real estate prices. What appears to be the most likely explanation though is a large risk premium as a result of an uncertain outlook with respect to future developments in oil production. Speculation about a soon-to-be-reached peak in non-OPEC productio ...
... affects markets for crude oil – as it has for real estate prices. What appears to be the most likely explanation though is a large risk premium as a result of an uncertain outlook with respect to future developments in oil production. Speculation about a soon-to-be-reached peak in non-OPEC productio ...
Opinion n°HCFP-2016-4of the High Council of public finance on the
... Deviation from the adjustment path In accordance with the Organic Law of 17 December 2012, the High Council deliberates on the consistency of structural balance targets set out in the amending budget bill (PLFR) with those set out in the last programming law (LPFP), in this case, law n°2014-1653 of ...
... Deviation from the adjustment path In accordance with the Organic Law of 17 December 2012, the High Council deliberates on the consistency of structural balance targets set out in the amending budget bill (PLFR) with those set out in the last programming law (LPFP), in this case, law n°2014-1653 of ...
fiscal policy in a monetary union: the case of ireland
... cyclically adjusted budget deficit for Ireland, an approach that is now fairly standard. Most recently, a detailed discussion of a range of different measures of “fiscal stance” was contained in Kearney et al. (2000). What all the measures have in common is an attempt to measure how changes in polic ...
... cyclically adjusted budget deficit for Ireland, an approach that is now fairly standard. Most recently, a detailed discussion of a range of different measures of “fiscal stance” was contained in Kearney et al. (2000). What all the measures have in common is an attempt to measure how changes in polic ...
General interest publications about the euro | European Commission
... Sound public finances are not the only key to having a thriving economy in the euro area. The crisis also revealed the need for a new approach to the regulation of financial services and for closely monitoring financial market developments. New surveillance instruments have also been established to ...
... Sound public finances are not the only key to having a thriving economy in the euro area. The crisis also revealed the need for a new approach to the regulation of financial services and for closely monitoring financial market developments. New surveillance instruments have also been established to ...
Dossierbijdrage
... institutions that have served previous governments well, but it has also improved on some elements. Just like during previous governments, trend-based fiscal policy making, with its medium term focus, is still key to budgetary policy making. Real expenditure ceilings have been set for the entire Cab ...
... institutions that have served previous governments well, but it has also improved on some elements. Just like during previous governments, trend-based fiscal policy making, with its medium term focus, is still key to budgetary policy making. Real expenditure ceilings have been set for the entire Cab ...
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... high energy prices. Expectations of future income and employment growth are low because the effects of the financial crisis are expected to last for years into the future. Unless these effects are addressed, a short-term fiscal stimulus has little chance of causing a sustained recovery. The theory t ...
... high energy prices. Expectations of future income and employment growth are low because the effects of the financial crisis are expected to last for years into the future. Unless these effects are addressed, a short-term fiscal stimulus has little chance of causing a sustained recovery. The theory t ...
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... to assess whether the government has a better than 50 percent chance of achieving the fiscal targets that the government has set itself. There are currently two such targets. The first, and more important, is the “fiscal mandate”, that requires the government to set policy so as to achieve balance o ...
... to assess whether the government has a better than 50 percent chance of achieving the fiscal targets that the government has set itself. There are currently two such targets. The first, and more important, is the “fiscal mandate”, that requires the government to set policy so as to achieve balance o ...
Country experiences – international The New Zealand Experience
... provided support to the economy. This stance continued until 2012, when the fiscal impulse turned contractionary as measures were introduced to restrain government expenditure growth. New Zealand’s planned fiscal adjustment will subtract from aggregate demand at a time when private sector and earthq ...
... provided support to the economy. This stance continued until 2012, when the fiscal impulse turned contractionary as measures were introduced to restrain government expenditure growth. New Zealand’s planned fiscal adjustment will subtract from aggregate demand at a time when private sector and earthq ...
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... policy was more or less refused in Germany, due to the 3%-cap regulation. This led to sector saving surpluses for corporations and private households, and banks searched for borrowers abroad. This lending at low interest rates sparked asset price bubbles in PIIGS countries, with house price increas ...
... policy was more or less refused in Germany, due to the 3%-cap regulation. This led to sector saving surpluses for corporations and private households, and banks searched for borrowers abroad. This lending at low interest rates sparked asset price bubbles in PIIGS countries, with house price increas ...
Fiscal Responses to the Economic Contraction of 2008-09
... ministers to evaluate the recovery plan and report back at the June 2009 European Council meeting, which they did. 7 Also, of course, it is obviously much easier to enact a substantial change in policy, as the U.S. did after January 20, 2009, in a single country in which the executive and legislativ ...
... ministers to evaluate the recovery plan and report back at the June 2009 European Council meeting, which they did. 7 Also, of course, it is obviously much easier to enact a substantial change in policy, as the U.S. did after January 20, 2009, in a single country in which the executive and legislativ ...
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... The existence of lags may help explain why empirical studies of fiscal policy often find it to be procyclical rather than counter-cyclical. See for example, OECD (2004) and IMF (2004). It may be worthwhile to cite the IMF study: “Discretionary fiscal policies in Euro area countries over the past thr ...
... The existence of lags may help explain why empirical studies of fiscal policy often find it to be procyclical rather than counter-cyclical. See for example, OECD (2004) and IMF (2004). It may be worthwhile to cite the IMF study: “Discretionary fiscal policies in Euro area countries over the past thr ...
Stability and Growth Pact
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The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is an agreement, among the 28 Member states of the European Union, to facilitate and maintain the stability of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Based primarily on Articles 121 and 126 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, it consists of fiscal monitoring of members by the European Commission and the Council of Ministers, and the issuing of a yearly recommendation for policy actions to ensure a full compliance with the SGP also in the medium-term. If a Member State breaches the SGP's outlined maximum limit for government deficit and debt, the surveillance and request for corrective action will intensify through the declaration of an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP); and if these corrective actions continue to remain absent after multiple warnings, the Member State can ultimately be issued economic sanctions. The pact was outlined by a resolution and two council regulations in July 1997. The first regulation ""on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies"", known as the ""preventive arm"", entered into force 1 July 1998. The second regulation ""on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure"", known as the ""dissuasive arm"", entered into force 1 January 1999.The purpose of the pact was to ensure that fiscal discipline would be maintained and enforced in the EMU. All EU member states are automatically members of both the EMU and the SGP, as this is defined by paragraphs in the EU Treaty itself. The fiscal discipline is ensured by the SGP by requiring each Member State, to implement a fiscal policy aiming for the country to stay within the limits on government deficit (3% of GDP) and debt (60% of GDP); and in case of having a debt level above 60% it should each year decline with a satisfactory pace towards a level below. As outlined by the ""preventive arm"" regulation, all EU member states are each year obliged to submit a SGP compliance report for the scrutiny and evaluation of the European Commission and the Council of Ministers, that will present the country's expected fiscal development for the current and subsequent three years. These reports are called ""stability programmes"" for eurozone Member States and ""convergence programmes"" for non-eurozone Member States, but despite having different titles they are identical in regards of the content. After the reform of the SGP in 2005, these programmes have also included the Medium-Term budgetary Objectives (MTO's), being individually calculated for each Member State as the medium-term sustainable average-limit for the country's structural deficit, and the Member State is also obliged to outline the measures it intends to implement to attain its MTO. If the EU Member State does not comply with both the deficit limit and the debt limit, a so-called ""Excessive Deficit Procedure"" (EDP) is initiated along with a deadline to comply, which basically includes and outlines an ""adjustment path towards reaching the MTO"". This procedure is outlined by the ""dissuasive arm"" regulation.The SGP was initially proposed by German finance minister Theo Waigel in the mid-1990s. Germany had long maintained a low-inflation policy, which had been an important part of the German economy's strong performance since the 1950s. The German government hoped to ensure the continuation of that policy through the SGP, which would ensure the prevalence of fiscal responsibility, and limit the ability of governments to exert inflationary pressures on the European economy. As such, it was also described to be a key tool for the Member States adopting the euro, to ensure that they did not only meet the Maastricht convergence criteria at the time of adopting the euro, but kept on to comply with the fiscal criteria for the following years.